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Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 9:32 AM
CaliNative CaliNative is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2016
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Percent of population that have had covid

Are there any reliable estimates on the percent of people who have had covid in various countries, including those who may have been asymptomatic or just had mild symptoms? I guess the only way to tell for sure would be antibody tests. Have these been done in a randomized way anywhere, to get a scientific estimate of past infection? I read at least a year ago that the town of Bolinas in NorCal was going to test residents for antibodies, but haven't heard any results. If the past infection rate is for example 25% of the population, and a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated, herd immunity or something approaching it might be near. Of course some of the vaccinated would also have had mild/assym. cases, so they'd have to take that into account. And unfortunately herd immunity for one variant strain may at not extend to all strains. To get a statistically valid estimate of past infections, maybe only 1% or even 0.1% of the population would have to be sampled for antibodies. Can the variant strain be identified in the antibody test? That would be useful. And children should be tested as well, since I suspect that asymptomatic children may be repositories of the virus that can be spread to other people. To what extent are unvaccinated children carrying the virus but no symptoms driving the spread? Finally, are pets like cats and dogs vectors for the virus? It is well known that dogs and especially cats can get covid, probably from infected humans. Can they also spread it to humans? It seems likely.

Last edited by CaliNative; Oct 25, 2021 at 9:57 AM.
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