Worldwide Demographics

[Steely Dan]

I moved all the posts about the war in Ukraine to the thread about it in CE.

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=232344

Please keep this thread exclusively about the current demographic situation. If you have an opinion about the war and the politics behind it that you would like to express, please take it to the CE th wad linked above.

[Yuri]

Another update regarding Ukraine, mere 12 days since the war started:

2,011,312 people have left the country, 1.204 million in Poland, 191k Hungary, 141k Slovakia, 99k Russia, 83k Moldova, 82k Romania and 210k in other European countries.

[Steely Dan]

^ wow, that works out to roughly 7,000 people leaving the country every hour!

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ wow, that works out to roughly 7,000 people leaving the country every hour!

Indeed. The last two days it was above 200,000/day. In the first reports, the UN estimated it would go up to 4,000,000, but the way things are evolving, it seems this number will be crossed rather soon.

As the corridors are finally been somewhat agreed back in the ravaged east and the fight keeps escalating, those figures will most likely increased significantly.

Ukraine sans Crimea, is probably at 39 million people now (or even less, as the census in many eastern European countries revealed their already grim estimates were far optimistic).

It's bizarre to think that up to 1991, Ukraine was almost as populated as France (52 mi vs 56 mi). Now France is at 65 million and they at 39 million.

[Crawford]

They're temporarily displaced refugees. Many, probably most, will be returning.

In any case, where they are now has nothing to do with where they end up. It isn't like the eastern fringe of Poland is gonna add 5 million Ukranians.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

They're temporarily displaced refugees. Many, probably most, will be returning.

In any case, where they are now has nothing to do with where they end up. It isn't like the eastern fringe of Poland is gonna add 5 million Ukranians.

Given Ukrainian emigration rates have been high since the end of USSR and they have very well established diasporas all over the places, I'd say many of them, the majority perhaps, will most likely never return.

Poland is still retaining most of the refugees, but as the UN numbers keep being updated, Romania and specially Moldova are retaining only a minority, while the numbers of "other European countries" are ballooning, suggesting many people are keep moving, seeking shelter in Western Europe, many of them staying with relatives or friends.

We don't know how things will develop, how long it will last, how much more damage will be inflicted, but if we can compare with Syria, the last major crisis, there are still 5 million Syrian refugees abroad. At this point, the majority of them will probably never come back. And Ukrainians, unlike Syrians, are being warmly welcomed everywhere and probably will have less trouble to settle down, to find jobs and eventually integrate into their adopted countries.

[Steely Dan]

The American rustbelt has a similar enough climate to most of Ukraine (compare Detroit with Kyiv).

And its cities need more humans.

But I'm guessing only a small percentage of refugees will make their way across the pond.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

We don't know how things will develop, how long it will last, how much more damage will be inflicted, but if we can compare with Syria, the last major crisis, there are still 5 million Syrian refugees abroad.

Ukraine has nothing to do with Syria. Syria is basically 10 different armies killing each other for decades. No one expects Syrians to move back to rubble and a failed state. It's basically Somalia or Libya.

In contrast, Ukraine is a reasonably successful state with a (very poorly performing) outside invader.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The American rustbelt has a similar enough climate to most of Ukraine (compare Detroit with Kyiv).

And its cities need more humans.

But I'm guessing only a small percentage of refugees will make their way across the pond.

And Ukraine has their own Rust Belt. Donetsk, for instance, aside facing their Rust Belt issues, was right in the separatist region. Its metro region peaked at 2.2 million people or so by 1991 and it was at 1.4 million pre-war. Since then, tens of thousands of people fled to Russia and they are not counted in this 2 million stat.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Ukraine has nothing to do with Syria. Syria is basically 10 different armies killing each other for decades. No one expects Syrians to move back to rubble and a failed state. It's basically Somalia or Libya.

In contrast, Ukraine is a reasonably successful state with a (very poorly performing) outside invader.

Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, even discounting war, did way better than Ukraine and they lost 1/4 of their population still. And keeps emptying out. Even with the best way scenario, the war ending next week, I really don't see Ukrainians coming back when they'll have free pass in very welcome and wealthy countries.

BTW, we should not keep our own bias to tell us Ukraine is somehow "superior" to Syria. In 2009, their GDP per capita was exactly the same US$ 2,557 (IMF). Lebanon, the most similar country to Syria, was at US$ 7,355 (IMF, 2009) despite being a completely dysfunctional state since the 1970's. A country being blue-eyed and blond don't mean they are wealthier or anyhow superior.

[JManc]

Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, etc. have been steadily losing population since the fall of the Soviet Union. I see the war in Ukraine as a turning point for an even higher exodus from both Ukraine and Russia. Their economies were always stagnant and pretty bleak, Just Google Streetview their cities outside historical centers. It certainly does remind me of the Rust Belt but with less developed infrastructure.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, etc. have been steadily losing population since the fall of the Soviet Union. I see the war in Ukraine as a turning point for an even higher exodus from both Ukraine and Russia. Their economies were always stagnant and pretty bleak, Just Google Streetview their cities outside historical centers. It certainly does remind me of the Rust Belt but with less developed infrastructure.

Assuming there is no change in leadership, I have a feeling that Russia will shut off emigration if that becomes a problem, a la Soviet era.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by JManc

Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, etc. have been steadily losing population since the fall of the Soviet Union. I see the war in Ukraine as a turning point for an even higher exodus from both Ukraine and Russia. Their economies were always stagnant and pretty bleak, Just Google Streetview their cities outside historical centers. It certainly does remind me of the Rust Belt but with less developed infrastructure.

On top of that, Covid was truly devastating in both Russia and Ukraine, specially in 2021 when they’ve could prevented deaths but vaccination rates were extremely low all over Eastern Europe.

Ukraine, for instance, reported almost 3x more deaths than births in 2021. There’s nothing like this anywhere in the world. Japan, the most famous country when it comes to shrinking population, births is still 75% of deaths.

[Yuri]

Thailand

That's an interesting as it's the first "normal" middle-income country (not counting the emigration prone Eastern Europe) that started to experience negative natural growth and it will provide us an interesting example of how those kind of countries will look in the future, as most of them will start to shrink way before to reach the "developed" status.

1991 was the last year Thailand posted an above replacement level TFR (2.06). Exactly 30 years later, in 2021, Thailand TFR reached the abyssal 1.09 children/women and the population shrank for the first time: 544,570 births, 563,650 deaths. In 1991, it was 960,556 and 264,350 respectively.

They kept South Korean demographic steps very closely, the difference is South Korea GDP per capita is at US$ 35,196 and Thailand is at only US$ 7,809.

Another feature that makes Thailand special is the absence of a second city. Bangkok has 17 million inhabitants and the second largest city is around 200k.

[MolsonExport]

Does Thailand have a lot of emigration? It will be joining a list of countries that will be growing old before growing rich.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Does Thailand have a lot of emigration? It will be joining a list of countries that will be growing old before growing rich.

It seems they don't have much immigration or emigration, that's why a very interesting place to look at, specially for a country like Brazil where immigration and emigration are rather low and cancel each other.

Thailand started to have negative natural growth in 2021, and with those very low TFR, the fall on the next years will be steep. And their GDP per capita is still at US$ 7,000, a far cry from the US$ 20,000 where the "developed" frontier is usually set.

Brazil will start to decline around the mid-2030's, but if the country hold at its current 1.7, decline will be slower.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Another update regarding Ukraine, mere 12 days since the war started:

2,011,312 people have left the country, 1.204 million in Poland, 191k Hungary, 141k Slovakia, 99k Russia, 83k Moldova, 82k Romania and 210k in other European countries.

21 days since the war, and 3,063,095 Ukrainians have left the country. 1 million/week average.

It's now very hard to track them for country as Schengen allows them to move around in Europe freely. There were reports 15,000/day were arriving in Berlin only.

And those numbers do not include people living in Donetsk and Luhansk republics and tens of thousands of them have left the region into Russia.

Ukraine sans Crimea is probably around 37 million people by now whereas Poland, the main recipient of refugees, might have probably exceeded 40 million people.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

21 days since the war, and 3,063,095 Ukrainians have left the country. 1 million/week average.

It's now very hard to track them for country as Schengen allows them to move around in Europe freely. There were reports 15,000/day were arriving in Berlin only.

And those numbers do not include people living in Donetsk and Luhansk republics and tens of thousands of them have left the region into Russia.

Ukraine sans Crimea is probably around 37 million people by now whereas Poland, the main recipient of refugees, might have probably exceeded 40 million people.

What a disaster.

[mousquet]

Originally Posted by Yuri

21 days since the war, and 3,063,095 Ukrainians have left the country. 1 million/week average.

It's now very hard to track them for country as Schengen allows them to move around in Europe freely. There were reports 15,000/day were arriving in Berlin only.

And those numbers do not include people living in Donetsk and Luhansk republics and tens of thousands of them have left the region into Russia.

Ukraine sans Crimea is probably around 37 million people by now whereas Poland, the main recipient of refugees, might have probably exceeded 40 million people.

As probably everybody, I hear they'd rather stay in countries neighboring Ukraine, especially Poland because many of them are determined to get back to their country once the war is over.
Most refugees are women and kids who left their hubbies or dads who're still in Ukraine to fight. Brave people, but I'm hardly surprised. That's the reputation they're known by anyway.

Otherwise, don't expect too many of them in Northern Europe. A lot of Ukrainians would have some connections to Mediterranean Europe like Italy or Portugal, so more of them would be moving to these countries.
The French government is expecting something like 100k in our country at most. They won't rush to France because they want to work for a decent living and heard that it was hard for immigrants to find a job out here, which is not false, although it depends on their degrees / level of education.

[Crawford]

The number of men in Ukraine has likely increased.

And, again, many will return. The Germans are treating the Ukranians as temporary guests, at least for now.

[mrnyc]

the welcome mat is out in and around cleveland



CNN visits Parma and Ukrainian Village; city prepares for expected refugees

Published: Mar. 16, 2022, 6:43 a.m.
By John Benson, special to cleveland.com


PARMA, Ohio -- The attention of the world is on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.


per the mayor:

“There are approximately 3 million Ukrainians who have left their country and gone to Poland and neighboring communities.
Looking ahead, it feels like Parma would be a natural landing pad for a number of those refugees coming to the United States.
We definitely want to be at the table and do our part at the city level.”


more:
https://www.cleveland.com/community/...-refugees.html


Parma City Hall showing support of Ukraine. (John Benson/cleveland.com)