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  #2181  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2020, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by emathias View Post
Obviously a vaccine is needed long-term to really make people confident. But an effective drug treatment would also have the ability to instill enough confidence in people to stop the current freefall.

An effective drug treatment is probably more likely in the near term than a vaccine, and there have been some hopeful stories about that. It'll still take a couple months to really prove out any treatment, but if that happens, and if those treatments bring the morality rate down to within spitting distance of the regular flu, things can start to get back to normal. 30 years ago there wouldn't have been hope of effective drug treatment, at least not without significant, risky side effects, but drug treatment of viruses has made some stunning progress the past two decades - drugs have revolutionized the HIV epidemic without a vaccine, for example - so it is now a plausible possibility. We would still need to take precautions, but something that reduces hospitalizations to the point that a health system collapse is averted would enable people to go back to work, etc, and be the start of a recovery.
The potential shortage of ventilators is also a choke point. I don't think they're going to start encouraging people to be in public gatherings for a long while yet, because they can't manufacture another 100,000 ventilators overnight.

And a potential drug? Don't forget that the common cold is also a corona virus, and there's never been a know effective treatment for that. I wouldn't hold my breath. Buckle up, because we're in for a long ride.

My question to those with a background in economics is, is this market downturn short lived? Or is it years in the making? And will we continue this free-fall for the rest on the year? I know it sounds insensitive to say this, as many people are losing their jobs and businesses. But it's very frustrating to watch my net worth hemorrhage away.
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  #2182  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2020, 11:50 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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sorry, was referring to TUP's post specifically. but yeah if things contiune on this route (no reason to say they wont), theres no way this isnt a depression. and theres no way we get through this without a historic New Deal type piece of legislation which is equally as transformative to American society. there wont be any other option. all the stuff being proposed right now is laughable.
To be honest, if dealing with this means a depression, I say we don't do what we are currently doing. This is going to sound really heartless, but if we need to lose some old people to this in order to protect the majority of people from living in hell, it might be the only option. The government doesn't have 250 billion dollars a month to give everyone 1,000 dollars a month for long. So what do you want?

A 3 trillion dollar plan? That would give Americans 1,000 a month for one year. Is that enough?
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  #2183  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 12:53 AM
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To be honest, if dealing with this means a depression, I say we don't do what we are currently doing. This is going to sound really heartless, but if we need to lose some old people to this in order to protect the majority of people from living in hell, it might be the only option. The government doesn't have 250 billion dollars a month to give everyone 1,000 dollars a month for long. So what do you want?

A 3 trillion dollar plan? That would give Americans 1,000 a month for one year. Is that enough?
You’re talking about something possibly happening that’s never been seen in modern history. The health care system would be completely overwhelmed. Doctors would essentially have to choose who lives and dies as patients rush the hospital. And every cancer patient and transplant patient that’s immunosuppressed would also be at tremendous risk. Those aren’t all elderly people. Not counting the few that have diseases like cystic fibrosis. And then there will be the random young person who would also die.

I don’t think the American people have the stomach for that. In the end, life is more important than money. But yes, it’s super frustrating.
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  #2184  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 12:37 PM
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I think the national economy will bounce back pretty quickly. What I'm really worried about are Illinois and Chicago's finances... We were barely getting by during a good economy - how are we going to survive this?
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  #2185  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:28 PM
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No Int'l Service from ORD

Haven't been around for some time but had to see what was being discussed on the virus. Along with the coming shocks to IL and Chicago's economy, my jaw dropped when seeing United and American's route cuts - they have prioritized all of their hubs except ORD. I wonder what all this means and what was Chicago at the end of the day for them, just a connector hub? There are ZERO intercontinental flights from U.S. carriers out of O'Hare (not counting United's lame daily to Cancun - Caribbean and Mexico not considered intercontinental). We are literally the same as St. Louis or Indianapolis right now. Yes, some of the other foreign carriers are still coming through. But this is unreal.


These are the only long-haul routes American, Delta, Hawaiian and United plan to fly in April
https://thepointsguy.com/news/april-...ited-airlines/
The Points Guy, March 18, 2020

American Airlines:
  • Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) – London Heathrow (LHR) and Tokyo Narita (NRT)
  • Miami (MIA) – London Heathrow



United Airlines:
  • Houston Intercontinental (IAH) – São Paulo Guarulhos
  • Newark Liberty (EWR) – Brussels (BRU), Delhi (DEL), Frankfurt (FRA), London Heathrow, Mumbai (BOM), Tel Aviv (TLV), and Tokyo Narita
  • San Francisco (SFO) – Melbourne (MEL), Osaka Kansai, Singapore (SIN), Sydney, Tokyo Haneda and Tokyo Narita
  • Washington Dulles (IAD) – London Heathrow

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  #2186  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 1:47 PM
OrdoSeclorum OrdoSeclorum is online now
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Originally Posted by chiphile View Post
I wonder what all this means and what was Chicago at the end of the day for them, just a connector hub? Yes, some of the other foreign carriers are still coming through. But this is unreal.
ORD is an airport with great travel distances to most of the USA, huge capacity and a large local population to serve. Right now, none of those things are advantages. If your goal is to send a few half-full planes over the ocean once in a while, I'd sure pick the route that used the least gas. I don't think things are different at ATL, DEN and LAX.
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  #2187  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 2:01 PM
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Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum View Post
ORD is an airport with great travel distances to most of the USA, huge capacity and a large local population to serve. Right now, none of those things are advantages. If your goal is to send a few half-full planes over the ocean once in a while, I'd sure pick the route that used the least gas. I don't think things are different at ATL, DEN and LAX.
Or, you could have clicked on the story to see ATL will still have 8 long-haul routes and will now be one of the most connected global hubs in the country and everyone in the middle of the country will find it advantageous to connect through there, or that Detroit will still have 3 long-haul routes?
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  #2188  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 3:03 PM
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Those routes shown are only for US carriers and may change. United Airlines puts antique aircraft on the Chicago international routes and always puts priority on the coasts with better equipment and international routes during normal times, so why should that change now. AA on the other hand favors DFW its main hub as does Delta and ATL.

Last edited by F1 Tommy; Mar 19, 2020 at 3:20 PM.
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  #2189  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 6:57 PM
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Originally Posted by rgolch View Post
The potential shortage of ventilators is also a choke point. I don't think they're going to start encouraging people to be in public gatherings for a long while yet, because they can't manufacture another 100,000 ventilators overnight.

And a potential drug? Don't forget that the common cold is also a corona virus, and there's never been a know effective treatment for that. I wouldn't hold my breath. Buckle up, because we're in for a long ride.

My question to those with a background in economics is, is this market downturn short lived? Or is it years in the making? And will we continue this free-fall for the rest on the year? I know it sounds insensitive to say this, as many people are losing their jobs and businesses. But it's very frustrating to watch my net worth hemorrhage away.
The common cold isn't nearly as serious. There isn't as much incentive nor interest in solving non-serious medical problems. There is some drug process for SARS 1, and with this being so widespread, that related research is being applied and accelerated to this SARS 2.

As for predictions what this downturn looks like, it's a fools errand because they're is nothing like it to base predictions on and we have no sense yet if how long the causes will last. We know the cause of this downturn, and can predict that when those are resolved things will then start to turn normal, but we don't yet know when they will be resolved. It has some similarities to the 2008 crisis, but also many differences, so even that isn't predictive.
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  #2190  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 8:11 PM
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Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
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  #2191  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2020, 9:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
No. Although United calls Chicago their main hub their priorities are obviously somewhere else after the merger. They have companies locked into contracts and have nothing to worry about in Chicago.

DFW is a lot less important than Chicago in every way, and that includes to the airlines. Don't forget Chicago will still have other international carriers still coming to ORD. United is really dropping the ball in Chicago due to lack of true competition. AA does not have the same access to Chicago business that UAL does due to the "hometown" attitude.

We will have to wait and see, but the whole thing may be mute if they stop all flights.
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  #2192  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Atlanta is obviously a winner because of the presence of CDC - international scientists, doctors, and policymakers need to be able to travel during the crisis. It has nothing to do with dick-measuring among airports or business competitiveness. DC has similar situation.

Beyond that, I imagine the reduced network structure is designed to cut back on redundancy. Why fly a plane to Chicago, smack-dab in the middle of the US, when you can land your plane just inside US borders at a coastal or southern hub and force travelers to connect to a domestic flight? Under normal circumstances there are advantages for airlines to have nonstop flights, but under this skeleton network there are zero advantages. This seems to be the rationale for United's service despite being headquartered here.

There are also considerations with where the mechanics are to service and turn over the long-haul birds, I'm guessing American has the best facility for maintenance and the most pre-existing connections at DFW so they are continuing that service. Detroit's a weird one, but I guess it's just too important as a Delta hub.

Think about the CTA's Night Owl service - it gets rid of some direct service from point to point, but preserves service across the city by forcing riders to transfer.
Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.

Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.

The only response that has made sense is F1 Tommy's - the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
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  #2193  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:07 PM
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Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.

Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.

The only response that has made sense is F1 Tommy's - the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
Honestly, I think this entire discussion is patently ridiculous right now! Nobody's flying, airlines are curtailing all services drastically, and who the hell cares which airports get what right now, anyhow!?!?! We're dealing with a completely new world right now, one that hopefully will return to some semblance of normalcy in the next few months. Until then, nothing is permanent, everything is changing, changing so fast that even the 24/7 internet news cycle can't keep up. What the hell is wrong with you guys, arguing over such insipid garbage???

We're dealing with an unprecedented pandemic right now, absolutely nothing else matters at this time. Let's see how this all plays out in the weeks and months ahead, then get back to our regularly-scheduled dick-waving.

Just my $.02.

Aaron (Glowrock)
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  #2194  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:50 PM
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Yeah the lack of flights right now is a good thing.
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  #2195  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 1:53 PM
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In our present case people are still confident about their jobs and the economy
This take aged real well

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  #2196  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 6:06 PM
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Uh, no. I figured some predictable Chicago-booster defensiveness on here but not at this level. The CDC does not generate 6,000 seats per day for international flying, not now, not ever.
What is booster ish about this? It's not a normal time and the usual decision logic for air routes no longer applies. I'm not surprised Chicago lost most of its connectivity during such a drastic paring-down. I don't think it indicates any kind of weird grudge against Chicago on the part of the airlines.

Also, why does the number of seats matter? It's not like the airlines can shrink their planes - the long-haul birds capable of these flights only come in certain sizes. The goal is not to fill the flights but to provide essential connectivity between key cities and ONLY between key cities for key personnel during this crisis, Atlanta being a super important city due to CDC.

Don't forget that the Trump administration runs FAA - it may not truly make sense to run so many flights into Atlanta, but I'm sure Trump and co believe it is.

Quote:
Chicago is "smack dab in the middle" if you think the world is flat, which is not how airplanes fly.
Chicago is still almost 1,000 miles further to Japanese and Korean airports than West Coast hubs like LAX and SFO even on a great circle distance.

Quote:
the fact has always been and is now clear that both UA and AA never considered O'Hare a primary hub, but a secondary. They clearly shifted their international flying to what they viewed as their primary international hubs from day one. This is not good for Chicago and I hope the coming recession just kills United and allows us to have its gates taken over by an airline that isn't pure misery when flying or dealing with customer service, and an airline that actually prioritizes Chicago and its unique northern geography which makes it very ideal for both Atlantic and Pacific long haul routes because the Earth is round, and super connectivity to the continental U.S.
I just don't see this, sorry. One way of saying Chicago is "good for both Atlantic and Pacific" is that it's not ideal for either. Under normal circumstances ORD functions as a collection point for the middle of the nation and prevents coastal hubs from being overwhelmed. That's the role ORD has held for decades. But it's a role that's conditional upon an overall high level of air traffic across the nation - take that away and airlines will naturally re-focus on a smaller number of coastal hubs to minimize redundancy and fuel consumption. In some cases, as with American in Dallas or Delta in Detroit, they have too many of their key facilities at a mid-continent site so they're locked in there regardless of whether it is a logical node in a skeleton network.
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  #2197  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2020, 6:37 PM
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On that note, China East just had their first flight land at ORD in weeks, a 777W direct from Shanghai (PVG). They also started flights to JFK and LAX again but not ATL or DFW or SFO. Infact they never go to DFW or ATL and cancelled the SFO.
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  #2198  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2020, 3:06 PM
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I am worried that the TED Spread is spiking:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEDRATE
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  #2199  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 2:36 AM
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The change in the title to on hold is pretty bad omen in my experience around here.

GD you covid. Could you have came around at a worse time?

I mean we were on a good roar, times were really good financially and in the construction of some really great buildings. How we recover our post covid will have a lot to say about the viability of the DT market Office buildings like the Old Post Office and the Idea of returning to the center of it all. Will a portion of those employees not telecommute to their job from anywhere in the country now. Its really sad if we do not get back to previous concept of returning to the city...… Its very worrisome on so many levels. I don't have enough time to explain the consequences but boy does Chicago really miss Rahm right now.


This crash could last a very, very long time unfortunately.
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  #2200  
Old Posted May 5, 2020, 10:34 AM
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The change in the title to on hold is pretty bad omen in my experience around here.

GD you covid. Could you have came around at a worse time?

I mean we were on a good roar, times were really good financially and in the construction of some really great buildings. How we recover our post covid will have a lot to say about the viability of the DT market Office buildings like the Old Post Office and the Idea of returning to the center of it all. Will a portion of those employees not telecommute to their job from anywhere in the country now. Its really sad if we do not get back to previous concept of returning to the city...… Its very worrisome on so many levels. I don't have enough time to explain the consequences but boy does Chicago really miss Rahm right now.


This crash could last a very, very long time unfortunately.
I agree with your assessment and I try not to think about it.
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