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  #14101  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 4:57 AM
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A lot of these bigger projects are fast coming up to the
(we won't be seen during the Olympics) deadline awfully fast.
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  #14102  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 5:36 AM
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Yeah, Olympia's not happening.
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ladowntownnews.com

“We came across the Olympia site around 2015, and it fit with our goals because it was such a large site and one of the last pieces of undeveloped land that was such a large site,” said Simon Kaplan, vice president of development at City Century. “It would allow us to really put (our) principles into effect and into play on a project that could really change the nature and the fabric of the entire Downtown Los Angeles area.”

Despite their hope in a fruitful future for both Olympia and its surrounding communities, Kaplan and City Century CEO and project director Joe Wang have expressed concern in their relationship with City Council. According to Wang, the original plans for Olympia did not include hotel space. During the entitlement process, the City Century team found that the City of Los Angeles would only approve the project if it included a significant amount of space dedicated to hotel rooms, so it agreed.

Kaplan explained that to feasibly run a financially successful hotel in LA, the project must obtain the Transit Oriented Tax Rebate (TOT). “The reality is almost no projects in and around Downtown LA pencil right now, and pencil meaning we will not be able to obtain financing,” he said. “No bank will give us a loan on this project unless there is the TOT rebate, which (is) when you stay at a hotel and there’s a 9.5%, or something like that, tax added on to your bill when you check out.

“You take a four-and-a-half-year entitlement, (with) a lot of uncertainty during it, and you get to now, (when) we’ve had multiple different councilmembers have scandals,” Kaplan added. “The city is not willing to provide the financial incentives that it has been. … I think the unfortunate reality is that this is the case with a lot of developers, particularly in and around Central LA at this time.”

City Century has also been subjected to market forces and the doubling of interest rates, increasing construction costs and a lack of travel, Wang explained. These factors, along with the lack of clarity regarding the TOT rebate, have shrouded the Olympia project’s timeline and construction commencement date in a cloud of uncertainty.

According to Wang, despite battling through a pandemic, turbulent economic period and City Council controversies, the Olympia project is here to stay. “We’re committed,” Wang said. “We’ve been committed to the city since 2015. Me and Simon live in LA. We went to USC. I grew up in LA. We’re going nowhere. We just want to see the city get (development) going again.”
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  #14103  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2023, 8:24 PM
Niftybox Niftybox is offline
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Olympia will probably be noticeably scaled back if it ever comes to fruition. I hoped it would be the DTLA skyline altering project for the Olympics, that's not going to happen now sadly.
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  #14104  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 12:14 AM
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I honestly have never been that excited over Olympia. All the towers are the same and sit atop one gigantic podium. Projects like the Garfield Building renovation and that proposed data center are more interesting to me, even though they will/would have zero sky-scraping impact.

It's street activity, pedestrian-friendly design, quality transit options, and safe streets that create the best urban experiences, not tall glass boxes that are popping up in cities across the world. I already knew this, but it was reinforced after having visited London and Paris earlier this year. Reading about how U.S. downtowns (office, retail) and transit systems are struggling to rebound and how people are leaving the big cities (e.g. explosive growth in the IE) is depressing. In London and Paris, the trains and train stations were packed and the sidewalks bustling.

What DTLA needs are well-designed medium-rises in the 100-150-foot range with little to no parking. The 4.25-square-mile area bounded by the three freeways and the LA River needs anywhere from 375-450,000 residents — a place rich in pedestrians and basic amenities where street parking is difficult to find and parking infrastructure limited and office, residential, and retail uses are more integrated. That's what will make DTLA a true vibrant urban center à la Europe, Asia, Latin America, as opposed to CBDs that largely empty out after working hours. If that was true pre-pandemic, imagine what it's like now with hybrid and remote work schedules here to stay. I'll take the best 4 square miles of Buenos Aires over the best 4 square miles of DC. The latter is prettier, but the former is more interesting.

The good news: DTLA has the bones for this type of environment.

The bad news: Figuring out how to deal with the large homeless population, projects taking forever to be approved and construct, limited rapid transit coverage to support such a population.
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Last edited by Quixote; Jun 3, 2023 at 12:35 AM.
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  #14105  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:10 AM
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These changes don't (and can't) happen over night, but incremental measures can be taken that will compound over time and result in the whole being greater than the sum. Most intersections in urban LA already have curb cuts. The next logical step would be to paint continental crosswalks. After that, install dual curbs. And while this is happening, encourage developments with better sidewalk interaction and landscaping to soften ground-level blank walls, keep sidewalks well-maintained, build momentum for road diets, plant shade trees, etc.

I agree with citywatch. Either our civic leaders despise our city, don't care enough about it, or simply don't understand how urbanism works. Yes politicians are concerned with pleasing their constituents, but it's clear that LA has become more urban and urbanism-conscious over the last several decades. NIMBYs aren't throwing fits about 4-7-story buildings anymore, so density to a certain degree isn't an issue.

But this new density is generally not enhancing the pedestrian experience, and that's the fault of the city. It's totally possible to build projects with street-facing garage access while still keeping the pedestrian enjoyable. This usually means planter boxes with flora that will conceal blank walls at the ground level. It already exists:

https://goo.gl/maps/BNeJ31tKBktsbdUX6
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  #14106  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:14 AM
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In London and Paris, the trains and train stations were packed and the sidewalks bustling.
both cities have their issues too, but nothing like what's affecting dtla. When I saw a vid about a yr or two ago about how homeless encampments...from thousands of immigrants mainly from north africa....were taking over some of the streets in Paris, I immediately had a very poor impression of that city. Then I realized that dtla has an even more infamous reputation for being that way.

But the historic beauty of european cities like London or Paris help offset the negatives. Then again, the attractiveness of the traditionally highly praised city of SF isn't necessarily enough to overcome its increasingly negative publicity. In turn, dtla has traditionally not received lots of compliments, so is LA even more vulnerable? Very well could be, yet ironically it's the grittier east side of dt...the arts dist....that's emerging from a very bleak past. So who knows? But easy (or not so easy) comes, easy goes?

I'm not as interested about the skyline of dtla....as seen from miles away....than making the area cleaner & more attractive. I'd rather have 500 new lower rise projs than 3 super talls. But, okay, the skyline as seen from miles away does have a certain value too. But most ppl....who are actually in dtla itself...probably will find dt more appealing...or less intimidating...if it has 500 new lowrise devlpt than it having a few more very tall towers. Think: Santa Barbara, Beverly hills, Pasadena or Samo. Or london or paris.

https://youtu.be/w41HzD3of6o?t=63

I hope things like the new connector line & major investments like the new museums in expo park aren't going to end up a big splat because LA city hall & LA's residents aren't able to get a handle on cleaning up various problems....

https://youtu.be/bFSFCRVwl78?t=1380
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  #14107  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:19 AM
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Santa Monica is a great example to follow. While it's mostly low-density and car-oriented, the streets are clean and well-maintained and most of the intersections along the busy corridors have painted crosswalks. In other words, it's clearly making an effort. If all of LA was like Santa Monica, I'm sure the perception of LA being "unwalkable" would not be as strong or pervasive. Being car-oriented doesn't automatically mean that the pedestrian experience has to be miserable.
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  #14108  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:42 AM
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Originally Posted by citywatch View Post
But the historic beauty of european cities like London or Paris help offset the negatives. Then again, the attractiveness of the traditionally highly praised city of SF isn't necessarily enough to overcome its increasingly negative publicity. In turn, dtla has traditionally not received lots of compliments, so is LA even more vulnerable? Very well could be, yet ironically it's the grittier east side of dt...the arts dist....that's emerging from a very bleak past. So who knows? But easy (or not so easy) comes, easy goes?
The Paris Metro is actually really gritty, the stations being very utilitarian-looking and the wayfinding sometimes lacking. The RER line that conveniently takes you from CDG to the city center was partially closed (presumably due to maintenance in preparation for the Olympics), so I had to take a bus and an SNCF train. The SNCF train was dark inside, even after the sun had set. It felt borderline second world.

But there's a difference between being gritty because of urban intensity versus being a sparse and/or sketchy dump.

I don't know what's the current state of SF. I do know that (if the 2022 estimates are correct) it has all but erased the population gains during its 2010s boom. BART is also in trouble because it's essentially a commuter rail system designed to provide one-seat rides into SF. With fewer people commuting, fares being so expensive, and headways infrequent, there are serious questions about its future.

Even pre-pandemic, SF was never (and never will be) Manhattan, London, or Paris, despite what the locals want you to believe. SF is walkable and somewhat pedestrian-friendly, but it's not pedestrian activity isn't intense.
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  #14109  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:48 AM
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Back to LA, look at the pedestrian activity/experience around Metropolis and compare it to the Historic Core. Buildings that are smaller and tightly packed together yield more urban intensity. The best thing the Olympia site could be is a mini Hudson Yards, but even Hudson Yards is awful IMO. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it for LA. I'm just saying that the best urban milieus tend to be more mundane and low-key.
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  #14110  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 4:03 AM
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^ I didn't realize Paris's subway stations could be as dismal as the ones in NYC are. I know France's capital has an old system too, but as with the transit in London, I had the impression two of the main cities of europe followed higher standards than the ones observed in America.

regardless, I hate the ambiguity & contradictions of everything. Cities may be better or worse than assumed. Dtla may be really weak in one way, but strong in another. In turn, a city like SF or London may be strong in certain ways, but weak in other ways. That makes it harder to predict the future. BTW, I've heard SF sometimes described as a 'two day city'.

As for dtla, I know that if today it were the same way it was 20 or 40 yrs ago, & I was the age back then that I am today, I'd give up out of impatience or futility. I'm now seeing the commercial vacancy rate in dt in 2023 going back to the way it was 20, 30 yrs ago....it's 'back to the future'. For ppl who love very tall bldgs, office towers are generally the only highrises that pencil out. They have taller floor heights & devlprs have traditionally charged more rental for commercial than for residential. If the onni apt tower at Olympic & Hill St were commercial, it could have fewer floors but still be taller.

I wish ppl at LA city hall were pickier about making the city look nicer & cleaner....safer too. I instead think too many govt officials...various residents too....are so busy with other things or have other interests to care if dtla looks bad....sidewalks too dirty, trees needing replacing, removing graffiti, homeless tents, turning on fountains (I'm looking at you, DWP bldg & Grand mall), shabby storefronts. DTLA needs a more ambitious approach to its future.

But at least this is something to look forward to. although some of this vloger's narration is a bit flowery...lol....he does give one of the more recent updates about the connector line set to open in 14 days.


Video Link
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  #14111  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 4:46 AM
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^ Paris Metro stations are nowhere near as grimy as the NYC Subway's. Don't compare the two.

As for office skyscrapers, I don't think DTLA will ever experience another wave of the International Style commercial buildings that sprang up across all major North American cities from the late 60s to the early 90s. First, there's probably less demand for office space post-pandemic. Second, LA's economy would need a massive infusion of jobs in finance, law, and consulting. Even Chicago has had, I think, only 10 or so office-only skyscrapers constructed since 2008. And none of them are close to being supertalls. NYC is the only exception.

There's a lot of money to be made in LA when it comes to real estate. Condos in the sky (and the views that come with it) in particular being a less common way to live I think makes residential skyscrapers worth the investment. I think the idea of paying $1,000 per SF for a condo with sweeping views and building amenities (i.e. pool, gym) is more appealing than paying the same price per SF for a nice, but ordinary 1,200-SF single-family home. What you sacrifice though is your own private outdoor space.

I do share your sense of angst. I'm an idealist and am uncomfortable with uncertainty, and the current state of affairs are full of question marks. I do think it helps though that the most interesting part of DTLA with all the pre-war fabric is not part of the Financial District. Like I said, DTLA should be home to 375-450K people. If 85% of those are educated professionals, the jobs (and office buildings) will follow. But it's the boutique hotels, retail, and dining that drove DTLA's renaissance, and those are still in recovery mode.
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  #14112  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 7:08 AM
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In response to some of the posts. I'm not sure what all citywatch has to say, but I can respond to some of the Quixote posts.

Let me first say to let's give some of the civic leaders a break. DTLA has come a long way and there are some civic leaders that have made some serious contributions. When you look at businesses, and residential alone...it's a huge "WOW". Growing up, I would have never imagined people spending so much money to live in DTLA.

I would personally love to clean some of the homeless in downtown, but by no means do I think and want it to follow in Santa Monica's footsteps. Santa Monica, Culver City, etc...that's not big city feel, and definitely isn't urban. It's just a small-town type of feel, that's relatively walkable. DTLA has the grid, the grit, the culture of true urbanism. I love the historic core as much as I love South Park and the Financial District. It would be amazing if there would be a demise of Skid Row and the historic core could seamless blend in with the Arts District.

As far as the perception of LA...forget YouTube, IG, TikTok, etc...Movies have told most people in general about people living in lofts, condos, and in highrises in NYC and when it comes to LA, it's told people about the Hollywood Hills, Beverly Hills, Malibu, etc. That's not going to change despite YouTube, or any social media.

Speaking of the grid, we have enough parking lots for all types of developments. From 100 footers to 800 footers. People who live in DTLA would appreciate all. You have some that want more talls and you have some that want the smaller buildings. That's the beauty of DTLA, everyone has their own way of thinking. It's diverse in every aspect.
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  #14113  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 1:29 PM
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This project is really impressive and beautiful but the narration to that video is hilarious. It's like someone asked ChatGPT to write a glowing review of the Regional Connector.
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  #14114  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 6:24 PM
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Like the article from City Watch says, City Century will happen. Just need interest rates to come down. There's barely any projects breaking ground right now due to high interest rates and the question of whether construction costs will continue to flatten as they have in the last few months or whether they will resume going up again.

I think construction costs will definitely continue to flatten and probably fall a bit because contractors are realizing their project pipeline is running dry 6-12 months out from now.

The name of the game for every developer is pushing through entitlements so that once interest rates and construction costs do come down, they're ready to pounce. We will likely see a big building wave in a 2-3 years as there's a ton of big projects either possessing entitlements or moving through the process now.

Also, we'll start to see some interesting, new and very large developments being planned about a year or so from now when the DTLA community plan goes into effect. Although it already passed through city council, it takes about 6-12 months for the city attorneys to make sure that all the new text and development possibilities are legal in the new code. Once that finishes, I think we'll see a lot of new development announcements.

As for Olympia specifically, again the article says it best about the hotel TOT rebate necessities. When this project was first planned, the city was in much better financial health and was handing out TOT rebates like candy to spur new development. Now the city isn't necessarily in good financial health and they're likely going to wait and see how all these office buildings start to transact for pennies on the dollar and how that lowers property tax assessments which lowers property tax revenues which lowers city's general fund.

It could be awhile before the city hands out TOT rebates again, which if that's the case, then if maybe 2 years from now when interest rates come down and construction costs come down, then maybe City Century reprograms Olympia to not have a hotel and instead does for-rent apartments or more condos instead. That change in programming would likely necessitate a minor plan check review which might take a handful of months.
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  #14115  
Old Posted Jun 3, 2023, 10:24 PM
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Also, we'll start to see some interesting, new and very large developments being planned about a year or so from now when the DTLA community plan goes into effect. Although it already passed through city council, it takes about 6-12 months for the city attorneys to make sure that all the new text and development possibilities are legal in the new code. Once that finishes, I think we'll see a lot of new development announcements.
If I recall correctly, the new downtown plan eliminates parking minimums, which could really help new downtown housing developments pencil out. What other changes to you think the plan will encourage?
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  #14116  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2023, 1:11 AM
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Like the article from City Watch says, City Century will happen. Just need interest rates to come down. There's barely any projects breaking ground right now due to high interest rates and the question of whether construction costs will continue to flatten as they have in the last few months or whether they will resume going up again.

I think construction costs will definitely continue to flatten and probably fall a bit because contractors are realizing their project pipeline is running dry 6-12 months out from now.

The name of the game for every developer is pushing through entitlements so that once interest rates and construction costs do come down, they're ready to pounce. We will likely see a big building wave in a 2-3 years as there's a ton of big projects either possessing entitlements or moving through the process now.

Also, we'll start to see some interesting, new and very large developments being planned about a year or so from now when the DTLA community plan goes into effect. Although it already passed through city council, it takes about 6-12 months for the city attorneys to make sure that all the new text and development possibilities are legal in the new code. Once that finishes, I think we'll see a lot of new development announcements.

As for Olympia specifically, again the article says it best about the hotel TOT rebate necessities. When this project was first planned, the city was in much better financial health and was handing out TOT rebates like candy to spur new development. Now the city isn't necessarily in good financial health and they're likely going to wait and see how all these office buildings start to transact for pennies on the dollar and how that lowers property tax assessments which lowers property tax revenues which lowers city's general fund.

It could be awhile before the city hands out TOT rebates again, which if that's the case, then if maybe 2 years from now when interest rates come down and construction costs come down, then maybe City Century reprograms Olympia to not have a hotel and instead does for-rent apartments or more condos instead. That change in programming would likely necessitate a minor plan check review which might take a handful of months.
Yea, I work for a big commercial real estate firm and many projects all over the country are on "hold" or barely squeaking through for financing.
It's not a really a LA problem. It's the interest rates.

Funny enough, retail projects/malls etc are doing well or coming back from the covid disaster. Offices are in trouble all over the country, I don't care what anyone says.

i dont know what chicago and ny and dc are going to with their gazillions of sq ft of dead space. I heard like 2026-2028 those cities are going to be fucked.
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  #14117  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2023, 2:38 AM
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i dont know what chicago and ny and dc are going to with their gazillions of sq ft of dead space. I heard like 2026-2028 those cities are going to be fucked.
Where did you hear that?

It's hard to predict that far ahead in the future anyway. Chicago and NYC probably have a lot of old space needing to be replaced by class A office space.

Hopefully.
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  #14118  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2023, 3:09 AM
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Just people in my office.
They don't have a rosy outlook for cities with a ton of dead office space. I heard in 5 years it can get ugly.

Replaced? With new dead office space?
And what's going to happen to the old office space?
Not every building can be converted to residential.

There's a reason why nyc , Chicago and DC mayors are desperately trying to end wfh. Those 3 places are the most in trouble.
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  #14119  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 6:37 AM
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MVE + Partners posted to their Instagram a few days ago renderings of 845 Olive with the brick veneer facade that we first saw here that's different from what we saw on Urbanize last month:

https://la.urbanize.city/post/anothe...ve-street-dtla

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cs9Jj_At...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
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  #14120  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2023, 11:55 AM
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MVE + Partners posted to their Instagram a few days ago renderings of 845 Olive with the brick veneer facade that we first saw here that's different from what we saw on Urbanize last month:

https://la.urbanize.city/post/anothe...ve-street-dtla

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cs9Jj_At...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
I like!
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