Great Lakes Cities

[ardecila]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I'm pretty sure this wasn't uncommon. Philly was Northern Liberties, Southwark, etc. Detroit was Redford, Springwells, etc. As cities grew they absorbed nearby settlements, sometimes originally more prominent than the core city. See DC with Georgetown.

Yeah we just ignore this in a lot of the Midwest because the Jeffersonian grid made it so seamless. Chicago absorbed Lake View, Hyde Park, Jefferson, Austin etc but since they were all platted on the half-mile grid with 8 blocks to a mile, you don't even notice any difference. Then you have places like Cicero and Oak Park that are literal extensions of the city grid, with the only markers being wealth-related (poorer for Cicero, wealthier for Oak Park).

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Crawford

My sense is that Ontario, in a certain era, was almost a defacto extension of the Midwest industrial (later rust) belt and the accompanying postwar hegemony. All these Michiganders have longtime summer cottages on the Bruce Peninsula, Lake Huron and near the Sault, visiting Canada wasn't much different from visiting Ohio, etc. That changed as Canada grew, borders hardened and immigration and social trends diverged.

Another interesting historical artifact is how, prior to the jet age and broad prosperity, Niagara Falls was the ultimate all-American honeymoon destination. But the tourist-oriented geography is mostly in Canada. Niagara Falls, Ontario was all-American like the Grand Canyon. Did visitors even know they weren't in the U.S.?

Of course they aren't alien cultures today. Ontario is still a pretty easy transition from neighboring U.S. states. But I think the differences have widened.

Through the mid-20th century, Michigan and Ontario probably felt like cousins. And even today there's some "Great Lakes" cottage culture that's similar. Geographically Michigan is the most Ontario-like of the states.

But obviously they've diverged. Ontario is much more urbanized and diverse. Its level of urbanization is similar to NYS and Illinois.

[Docere]

Meanwhile, Montreal and Quebec were obviously much less integrated with the Northeast Corridor, even if Montreal was the "eastern port city" of Canada.

In addition to the obvious language difference, Montreal is more geographically isolated (the closest US "cities" are Plattsburgh and Burlington, Vermont).

Plus Quebec was an economic backwater that sent many migrants to New England. You didn't have a situation in Canada where the "eastern seaboard" was the most urbanized part of the country.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Then you have places like Cicero and Oak Park that are literal extensions of the city grid, with the only markers being wealth-related (poorer for Cicero, wealthier for Oak Park).

In my mind, all those western grid burbs east of the Dezzz Plainezzz are just Chicago nabes, save for the legalistic mumbo-jumbo.

Cicero, OP, Berwyn, Elmwood, Stickney, River Forest Park......

Yeah, dat's Chicaaaaago.



Riverside doesn't count though; twisty streets no bueno.

What is this? Fucking Schaumburg shit? Why are the streets all crooked all of a sudden?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Docere

Through the mid-20th century, Michigan and Ontario probably felt like cousins. And even today there's some "Great Lakes" cottage culture that's similar. Geographically Michigan is the most Ontario-like of the states.

But obviously they've diverged. Ontario is much more urbanized and diverse. Its level of urbanization is similar to NYS and Illinois.

What do you mean by urbanized? The U.S. uses that term to mostly refer to non-rural areas, so if that's the definition you're using then Ontario and Michigan are still similarly "urbanized", but Michigan's urbanity is in the form of autocentric sprawl built around deteriorated core cities.

If you're talking about developed urban core then yes, Ontario has quite obviously pulled far ahead of Michigan and is probably similar to Illinois. But I'd place Ontario quite a bit behind New York. NYC is nearly half the population of NYS, and I can't think of another state or province in post-industrial North America where the city makes up about half of the population. Maybe one of the lightly populated western states like Alaska or Wyoming where the primary city has very large boundaries.

[Docere]

% Urban

New York 87.4%
Illinois 86.9%
Ontario 86.2%
Pennsylvania 76.5%
Ohio 76.3%
Michigan 73.5%
Minnesota 71.9%
Indiana 71.2%
Wisconsin 67.1%

[Docere]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

and I can't think of another state or province in post-industrial North America where the city makes up about half of the population. Maybe one of the lightly populated western states like Alaska or Wyoming where the primary city has very large boundaries.

Well there's Winnipeg, which makes up over 60% of the population of Manitoba.

[Velvet_Highground]

There was a divergence already taking hold in the 80s-90s as the old US industrial model was ripped apart for a variety of reasons but the “vulture capitalists” used junk bonds for the first time after the risk reward benefit became apparent to Wall Street via the casino industry in Vegas. Which I won’t go down that rabbit hole but I think it’s important to make the distinction that I wish was better understood it’s only partially relevant for the discussion at hand.

Chicago America’s 3rd largest “2nd city” and Toronto as the hub of Canada had a vested interest in urban investment and the desire of national and international partners and individuals to locate. Michigan was dealing with all the worst of urban issues along with being overly reliant on a monogenetic economy which was part of a sector that was seen to be more profitable to rip apart and reinvest in finance and offshore what was needed for production. Michigans leadership went along with the flow and doubled down on suburban and exurban growth being the engine that will never quit, “what do we need Detroit for when Oakland County is the 2nd richest in the US”.

At the high water of suburbanism the 90s that didn’t seem such an insane bet for many. My broader point with Michigans “urban population is its suburban and exurban areas should be read as semi rural areas outside of say Atlanta are as a broader extension of the urban polity. 90% of Michigans population lives in roughly the lower 1/3 of the state.

Most of Michigans growth which it has with the exception of the during the Great Recession has been in fringe suburbs though that trend has been changing with renewed urban interest and post Covid Up North relocation. Trying to dissect and analyze the why isn’t important to the point I wanted to make but I think it’s important to not just brush past the point that there was something unique about Michigan or Detroit that left it inevitably ready to fall from its perch.

I would like to further the notion that the 3 major GL cities Chicago, Detroit and Toronto were very similar post war and begun to diverge in the 70’s but it 9/11 cannot be understated to the extent it influenced the region. The point of Niagara Ontario being all American is a good one to point to the differences we have in cross border commuting now. It’s a pain number one my local HS associated baseball team got stopped for secondary inspection in around coming back from a league game in Windsor and was pulled aside and has the bus ripped apart. Windsors economy as the regions college party town died and was replaced with Royal Oak and underage drinking.

Yeah normal law abiding citizens with the extended license shouldn’t have to worry about any of that bs but systems make mistakes and those stories have a chilling effect on travel. Things have changed since then and hopefully are heading in a better direction but I can’t help but think back to that article in the Windsor Star about the HS line where the Windsor to London route was in doubt because it was seen as the end of the line and unprofitable. It feels that way on the US side of the border just looking at maps sometimes. Hell the UP is sometimes marked as not a state or another country just left grey and it feels like instead of being part of the largest international metropolis on the continent across the water might as well be Timbuktu for the rest of the country.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Crawford

My sense is that Ontario, in a certain era, was almost a defacto extension of the Midwest industrial (later rust) belt and the accompanying postwar hegemony. All these Michiganders have longtime summer cottages on the Bruce Peninsula, Lake Huron and near the Sault, visiting Canada wasn't much different from visiting Ohio, etc. That changed as Canada grew, borders hardened and immigration and social trends diverged.

I've witnessed the decline of this in my millennial lifetime. I grew up about an hour east of Toronto in a city that had a lot of American-oriented manufacturing. Our town was actually twinned with Ann Arbor, and there would be sports competitions between high schools from the different cities. Seeing Michigan plates on the roads east of Toronto in the cottage country areas north of where I lived wasn't uncommon.

Since then, auto manufacturing and auto parts have declined in importance in Ontario, even if it's still an important industry that employs hundreds of thousands. One big change is the geography of where these plants are located. Along with the general decline in auto manufacturing, most plants and auto parts manufacturers have consolidated their operations in southwestern Ontario, or at least to the west of the GTA. Besides being closer to the Michigan border, almost all of the major logistics facilities, like the airport and the intermodal terminals, are located on the west side, and driving a truck through Toronto is a major pain in the ass. The influence of the Midwest always petered out east of Toronto, but now I think there's a hard stop once you hit the GTA.

A city like Oshawa, just east of Toronto, has probably witnessed the biggest decline in its connection to Michigan/the Midwest. It was once a pretty independent blue collar city with one of GM's biggest auto assembly plants and the HQ of GM Canada itself. Now it's basically a commuter suburb of Toronto and the GM plant employs maybe a tenth of what it did at its peak, mostly in the sub-assembly of parts.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Crawford

My sense is that Ontario, in a certain era, was almost a defacto extension of the Midwest industrial (later rust) belt and the accompanying postwar hegemony.

Definitely.
Ontario was and is the economic engine, and still (despite rust belt declines) manufacturing powerhouse of Canada. Ontario (~15.6M) now has almost 60% more people than Michigan. It certainly helps having the nation's capital, and Canada's largest city/Ontario's capital city in the same province.

With auto manufacturing in particular one can see the Michigan-Ontario connection. The modern just in time manufacturing process means auto parts cross back and forth many times between Ontario and Michigan before finally assembly of a vehicle. Even if there's a fraction of the auto employment workforce, Ontario and Michigan are reliant on each other for this sector. Combined, they still make up the largest share of auto manufacturing in North America.

hipsterduck made a good point that the focus has shifted West of Toronto with the newer auto assembly plants in Cambridge, Woodstock (Toyota) Alliston (Honda), Ingersoll (CAMI, now BrightDrop electric delivery vans), Brampton (Chrysler), Oakville (Ford).
Oshawa and St. Catharines both formerly had legacy, massive GM factories with huge amounts of GM jobs. Oshawa with 23,000+ and St. Catharines had 2 plants with 10,000+ GM employees. Both are only 1/8th-1/10th the former peak employment.

Practically everywhere in southern Ontario had decent sized manufacturing whether Toronto/GTA, Windsor, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, Peterborough, Niagara and all of the smaller cities I'm forgetting.

Hamilton and Niagara were the steel and metal fabrication hubs. Hamilton is still Canada's steel manufacturing hub and Dofasco (now owned by ArcelorMittal) has made and continues to make huge investments in the Hamilton operations. All of those green buildings in Hamilton are Dofasco owned. Stelco were blue.
Most manufacturing in Canada is still Ontario or Québec centric.

Originally Posted by hipster duck

The influence of the Midwest always petered out east of Toronto, but now I think there's a hard stop once you hit the GTA.

A city like Oshawa, just east of Toronto, has probably witnessed the biggest decline in its connection to Michigan/the Midwest. It was once a pretty independent blue collar city with one of GM's biggest auto assembly plants and the HQ of GM Canada itself. Now it's basically a commuter suburb of Toronto and the GM plant employs maybe a tenth of what it did at its peak, mostly in the sub-assembly of parts.

Oshawa and St. Catharines are basically Lake Ontario cousins, with St. Catharines having some old money (and an Olmsted designed downtown park-Montebello) having initially grown quicker and being the hub of Niagara region forever.

Originally Posted by Docere

Population of Ontario cities, 1871:

Toronto 56,092
Hamilton 26,716
Ottawa 21,545
London 15,826
Kingston 12,407
Brantford 8,107
St. Catharines 7,864

Oshawa surpassed St. Catharines in population in the 1990s when the "commuter suburb" aspect kicked into high gear and hasn't stopped rapidly growing since.
Although in the past decade Niagara is certainly benefiting from retirees from the GTA and Hamilton areas. Every municipality in Niagara has home construction taking place.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

What do you mean by urbanized? The U.S. uses that term to mostly refer to non-rural areas, so if that's the definition you're using then Ontario and Michigan are still similarly "urbanized", but Michigan's urbanity is in the form of autocentric sprawl built around deteriorated core cities.

If you're talking about developed urban core then yes, Ontario has quite obviously pulled far ahead of Michigan and is probably similar to Illinois. But I'd place Ontario quite a bit behind New York. NYC is nearly half the population of NYS, and I can't think of another state or province in post-industrial North America where the city makes up about half of the population. Maybe one of the lightly populated western states like Alaska or Wyoming where the primary city has very large boundaries.

Greater Montreal has about half of Quebec's population.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Greater Montreal has about half of Quebec's population.

As does the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area for Ontario.

But he means city proper.

[iheartthed]

Yes, city proper. A metro being half of a state's population is fairly common. Detroit's MSA is over 40% of Michigan's population and the CSA is more than half of the state population. Detroit itself is about 6% of the state's population, down from about 25-30% in the mid 20th century.

[Steely Dan]

The 9 IL counties of Chicago's MSA constitute 70% of IL's total population.

But the city proper of Chicago is only 21% of the state, which is still probably on the higher end for US states.

[Docere]

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (7.3 million) constitutes just over half the population of Ontario.

Ottawa is about 1 million or 7% of the population.

Next are Kitchener-Waterloo and London are about 500,000 each. Windsor and the Niagara region just after that.

[softee]

Ontario is well past 15 million as of current estimates, & the Greater Toronto-Hamilton area is closer to 8 million these days.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

What do you mean by urbanized? The U.S. uses that term to mostly refer to non-rural areas, so if that's the definition you're using then Ontario and Michigan are still similarly "urbanized", but Michigan's urbanity is in the form of autocentric sprawl built around deteriorated core cities.

If you're talking about developed urban core then yes, Ontario has quite obviously pulled far ahead of Michigan and is probably similar to Illinois. But I'd place Ontario quite a bit behind New York. NYC is nearly half the population of NYS, and I can't think of another state or province in post-industrial North America where the city makes up about half of the population. Maybe one of the lightly populated western states like Alaska or Wyoming where the primary city has very large boundaries.

Anchorage has about 40% of Alaska's population.

Honolulu technically has a combined city-county government, so if you count the entire island of Oahu, 70% of Hawaii is under the jurisdiction of "Honolulu," though the census still defines Honolulu city as a separate entity (even if it doesn't have its own government...)

[Docere]

According to the 2021 census, the Greater Golden Horseshoe has a population of 9.7 million in 12,000 square miles (a bit bigger than Massachusetts or Maryland). Two-thirds of the population of Ontario is there.

Contrary to belief it doesn't meet the US CSA definition though, so it's not really an "equivalent." I guess it's a megalopolis or just a very urbanized region.

[Steely Dan]

The 5 almost nearly contiguous Urban Areas of the SW shore of Lake Michigan (Chicago, Round Lake, Kenosha, Racine, and Milwaukee UAs) contain a total of 10.5M people on 3,040 sq. miles of land.

That land area is like 1.5 Delawares or half a Hawaii.

But it spreads across 3 states, so not as useful of a comparison to the other examples being offered.

[hipster duck]

I think iheartthed's metric was roughly the percent of the state's population living in a 'developed urban core' - that is to say, people living very urban lifestyles (condos or apartments with no yards, no car, entertaining done mostly in public places, rather than inside homes, being able to access most stores and services within walking distance in urban formats, etc.)

For that metric, New York state wins over any other province or state by a country mile. Manhattan alone is over 8% of NYS' population. For an equivalent, 1.3 million people would have to live Manhattan-esque lives in Toronto (and Ottawa)* for Ontario to match up.


*You can live a decent, middle class life without owning a car in Ottawa in a way you wouldn't be able to in Buffalo, Albany or Rochester.

Besides Toronto and Ottawa, doing this in the other Ontario cities like Hamilton, London or Kitchener is kind of a shaky proposition; I probably wouldn't.