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  #21  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:33 PM
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With New York being 89 people short of no change, looks like a stark case of horrific timing. Consider what the Covid pandemic looked like last April....
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  #22  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:34 PM
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So, the Southeast and Southwest regions were both overestimated, while the Northeast was substantially underestimated.
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  #23  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:34 PM
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Fascinating that the estimates for the northeast was 1.9 million below the official count. I would have thought it would be the other way around due to the undercount and the tricky nature of counting immigrant communities in the big northeast cities.

Well, can't wait for county and city populations to be released.

I'm hoping the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA becomes New York-Jersey City-Newark, NY-NJ-PA

The big jump in the official count for New Jersey gives me hope that the estimates were off for Jersey City, given the huge amount of construction over the last decade.
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  #24  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:37 PM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
With New York being 89 people short of no change, looks like a stark case of horrific timing. Consider what the Covid pandemic looked like last April....
Was thinking the same thing. Talk about horrible timing.
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  #25  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:38 PM
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So, the Southeast and Southwest regions were both overestimated, while the Northeast was substantially underestimated.
This is the big news for me from this release. The reapportionment numbers were more or less predicted. I'm surprised Florida didn't get 2 seats, but other than that pretty much everything was in line.

https://www.electiondataservices.com...wTableMaps.pdf

https://www.electiondataservices.com/ is a neat website that has been running their own analysis based on census estimates.
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  #26  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:38 PM
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jesus, between just NYS and NJ, they underestimated by nearly 1.3M people!

swing and a motherfucking miss!!!
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  #27  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:42 PM
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jesus, between just NYS and NJ, they underestimated by nearly 1.3M people!

swing and a motherfucking miss!!!
No kidding - and I wonder just how much higher they would be if COVID-19 didn't hit.
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  #28  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:43 PM
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LOOK AT THIS!!

New York was just 89 people short from keeping its 27th Congressional District!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...020-tableB.pdf

Am I reading this correctly?

A huge amount of power shifted for the next decade and goes to show the importance of having everyone be counted in the decennial Census.
Yeah, but New York was expected to lose 2 districts, and 3 was considered a worst-case scenario. So only losing 1 district is considered a win.
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  #29  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:44 PM
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Yeah, but New York was expected to lose 2 districts, and 3 was considered a worst-case scenario. So only losing 1 district is considered a win.
True, the estimates were way off. Normally it's the estimates that are high with the official count coming in lower.
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  #30  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
jesus, between just NYS and NJ, they underestimated by nearly 1.3M people!

swing and a motherfucking miss!!!
I wondet if this means once county numbers are out, we'll have NYC knocking on the door of 9 million (i.e. 8.7 or 8.8).
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  #31  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:47 PM
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Interesting Michigan gained 193,691 more than 2x the estimate still slow growth at only 2% but a pretty big surprise considering 2020 was predicted to be nearly as bad of a year for population loss as 2010 was .18% vs .24% comparatively.

More intriguing is the question of what account for discrepancy. My first thoughts went to growth in GR and Kzoo but that would be a huge error in undercounting.

I’m interested to see the breakdown growth on the west side certainly has to play a part but it would be more understandable if we see a reduction in population loss or some growth eastern urban areas. For all of the improvements made in data collection perhaps this is a case of the ever hoped for undercounting in urban areas traditionally harder to nail down in the off years.

Edit; looks like there is a trend here, federal disinterest in its own bureaucracy over the past 4 years?
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  #32  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
jesus, between just NYS and NJ, they underestimated by nearly 1.3M people!

swing and a motherfucking miss!!!
Look at the years where the estimates went batshit crazy.

Again, anyone who thinks the annual estimates aren't politicized, needs to look at the annual estimates, over time, and who's running Census in those years.
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  #33  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:50 PM
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More intriguing is the question of what account for discrepancy. My first thoughts went to growth in GR and Kzoo but that would be a huge error in undercounting.
I bet you the undercounts, nationwide, will be in deep blue urban areas, especially areas that are "hard to count" or where it's politically expedient to undercount to push a narrative.

So Michigan's undercounts were probably worst in Wayne County. Probably Detroit, Hamtramck, Dearborn. Immigrant areas, black areas, poor areas.
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  #34  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:52 PM
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Look at the years where the estimates went batshit crazy.

Again, anyone who thinks the annual estimates aren't politicized, needs to look at the annual estimates, over time, and who's running Census in those years.
Honestly, Democrats should be thrilled at today's results (I know I am).

New York only lost 1 instead of 2. Texas gained 2 instead of 3.

That's one extra Democrat in Congress.

Rhode Island kept its 2nd District. Florida grew by 1 instead of 2.

That's another extra Democrat in Congress.

Minnesota did not lose any seats and Arizona didn't either. Minnesota was supposed to lose 1 and Arizona gain 1.

That's another extra Democrat in Congress.

3 extra Democrats for the rest of the decade versus expectations. Considering this was the Trump Census, they made out like bandits.
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  #35  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 8:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I bet you the undercounts, nationwide, will be in deep blue urban areas, especially areas that are "hard to count" or where it's politically expedient to undercount to push a narrative.

So Michigan's undercounts were probably worst in Wayne County. Probably Detroit, Hamtramck, Dearborn. Immigrant areas, black areas, poor areas.
Yes, I think so too. This is why I said on another thread a few weeks ago that the estimates would probably miss a population increase in Detroit if it materialized in the 2020 census.

What I REALLY don't get is how the estimates missed almost 1 million people in New York. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but this might mean that NYC's population is close to 9 million.
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  #36  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
Honestly, Democrats should be thrilled at today's results (I know I am).

New York only lost 1 instead of 2. Texas gained 2 instead of 3.

That's one extra Democrat in Congress.

Rhode Island kept its 2nd District. Florida grew by 1 instead of 2.

That's another extra Democrat in Congress.

Minnesota did not lose any seats and Arizona didn't either. Minnesota was supposed to lose 1 and Arizona gain 1.

That's another extra Democrat in Congress.

3 extra Democrats for the rest of the decade versus expectations. Considering this was the Trump Census, they made out like bandits.
and Illinois is probably corrupt enough to make the person squeezed out be a Republican...
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  #37  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:06 PM
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I think this is the biggest New York's ever been? I don't recall it breaking 20 million before. Even though there are about another 10 million or so in Flawriduh
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  #38  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:07 PM
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  #39  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:09 PM
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I think this is the biggest New York's ever been? I don't recall it breaking 20 million before. Even though there are about another 10 million or so in Flawriduh
Yeah, first time NY and FL have officially cracked 20M.
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  #40  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
and Illinois is probably corrupt enough to make the person squeezed out be a Republican...
To be fair, I'd wager the greatest losses in population in Illinois are likely in republican districts. The 15th, 12th, and 13th districts probably all lost population. I could see the 17th district (Peoria and Rockford) losing the most though, and that's a democrat district (just barely).
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