Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I'm trying to think of recent world leaders that had both characteristics: in-touch and intellectual at the same time.

Barack Obama? Jean Chretien? Bill Clinton? Any other ones?

I'd say Macron is very similar to Obama. They both have the same haughtiness and intellectual superiority verging on the condescending. Both are also centrists not very effective in terms of domestic politics. Both irritate me a lot. Long intellectual speeches, but disappointing policy results.

I wonder whether the French Obama will ve followed by a French Trump...

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by thurmas

With this likely Legault's last election who in the CAQ caucus would likely be his heir apparent ?

There is no heir. The king never envisions his death. See the famous play by Ionesco: Le roi se meurt.

[New Brisavoine]

Le Figaro, the conservative French daily, has an article about the Québec election on its main page today. They call CAQ a "right-wing coallition" ("right-wing" in France means center-right). I wonder what Duhaime would make of that...

Québec votes for its MPs, the ruling right-wing coallition is favorite

https://www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...orite-20221003

[thurmas]

CAQ cruising to Brian Mulroney type dominance with almost 50% of the vote right now. Liberals winning 19 seats with just 12% of the vote almost identical to PCQ who have zero seats Quebec could sure use some electoral reform. The saying a red mailbox could win in Montreal for the Liberals still holds true.

[thurmas]

Quebec Liberals official opposition but either 4th or 5th party in popular vote.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I agree: Parizeau was very 'common man'. To the point of the filter that would have saved other politicians' skins was missing at key moments.

It was both his greatest asset and greatest flaw.

I do kind of want lobster for dinner now.

Edit: At least he had the good sense to keep his mouth mostly shut after he promised to leave politics.

Parizeau as a common-man?!? Absolutely not. He definitely wasn't a René Lévesque.

[Loco101]

The CAQ is at 90 seats which is pretty significant victory. And with about 41% of the vote.

The next four parties are all pretty close in their share of votes which is really something unusual to see. Obviously the concentrated PLQ on the Island of Montreal gives the party the advantage for second place and official opposition.

While the big winner is obviously the CAQ, there really isn't another party that pulled off anything to be considered a gain. Maybe the PCQ with 13% but they failed to win a seat as of yet although the Beauce-Nord and Beauce-Sud riding are very close with more votes to be counted.

My bet is that QS and the PQ will merge within a couple of years. While together they don't currently have enough support to win, they would have a good chance at official opposition and maybe victory in the next election rather than being two parties without official party status. QS is currently at 11 seats and one seat shy of it according to the results coming in. And the most likely leader would be Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and possibly Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois as well if they go with having spokespeople rather than a party leader.

[lio45]

Quebec in the late 2010s and in the 2020s is an absolutely perfect example of the way our FPTP electoral system deliberately favors mainstream centrist parties and produces continuity and stability by design, at the obvious cost of "fairness" for smaller parties.

Viewed from Europe, I wonder what New Brisavoine thinks of this trade-off. We here tend to be obsessed by the unfairness aspect, so we exaggerate the cons and minimize the pros (grass being always greener in the neighbor's yard) of our system.

How long would a coalition last, if the four non-CAQ parties each had their ~15% of Parliament? It would likely make the typical Italian government look stable

[lio45]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first time in history that most votes (!) went to parties that don't have official party status?

This is likely completely unprecedented.

Edit: oops, my math is wrong by one on the left digit, so scratch that! (I'll still leave the post as is.) Still likely a record for lowest % of the vote going to official parties, and highest % to "fringe" ones.

[lio45]

PSPP elected! Nice

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first time in history that most votes (!) went to parties that don't have official party status?

This is likely completely unprecedented.

At this moment the CAQ and PLQ together have 55.3% of the total votes. But it's still amazing that 44.7% of the votes are for candidates whose parties don't have official party status.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Loco101

At this moment the CAQ and PLQ together have 55.3% of the total votes. But it's still amazing that 44.7% of the votes are for candidates whose parties don't have official party status.

Yeah, I had it at 45.3% in my head, and noticed my mistake myself, before anyone pointed it out

(see edited post)

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by lio45

PSPP elected! Nice

He is PQ party leader and did quite well in the debates so I'm not surprised. As I posted above, I can see him leading a combined QS/PQ merged party. Wouldn't you say the chances of that happening are pretty high because they would get official party status and be in the spotlight more?

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Loco101

My bet is that QS and the PQ will merge within a couple of years.

The two scenarios that make sense going forward is CAQ absorbs PCQ and PQ-QS merge. The former, unlike the latter, will at least be able to agree on who's senior partner in the merger, and who's the one getting swallowed!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Wouldn't you say the chances of that happening are pretty high because they would get official party status and be in the spotlight more?

They have to agree on merger terms, which is far from done. Last I checked they both think they're the bigger partner, and refuse the other party's "insulting" merger terms.

Makes sense though: QS has better momentum* and more MPs, and considers time is on its side (i.e. it could try to wait for the PQ to die and then the same result is achieved without diluting anything) but PQ has a much higher ceiling and a better reputation (also, it's the only one of the two that showed it's actually electable).

Maybe they'll see the light and accept a merger of equals...



*that said, I should point out this one used to be true at the time of the merger talks but now it's debatable: QS has hit a ceiling at ~10 MPs and ~15%, they're not ascending any more.

[Acajack]

The CAQ did not do great on Montreal island overall, but they got 50% of the francophone there, which is higher than what they got in the rest of Quebec. CAQ vote among francophones in Montreal was up a whopping 17% in Montreal, but only up 2% overall in Montreal.

I still think they really missed an opportunity to be even stronger with those boneheaded comments on immigration.

The CAQ is about 3.5 points higher than their 2018 popular vote.

Their popular vote was also up there with the most optimistic poll results they had.

The CAQ got more female members elected than any government in Quebec history.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

They have to agree on merger terms, which is far from done. Last I checked they both think they're the bigger partner, and refuse the other party's "insulting" merger terms.

Makes sense though: QS has better momentum* and more MPs, and considers time is on its side (i.e. it could try to wait for the PQ to die and then the same result is achieved without diluting anything) but PQ has a much higher ceiling and a better reputation (also, it's the only one of the two that showed it's actually electable).

Maybe they'll see the light and accept a merger of equals...



*that said, I should point out this one used to be true at the time of the merger talks but now it's debatable: QS has hit a ceiling at ~10 MPs and ~15%, they're not ascending any more.

Québec solidaire is arguably a spin-off of the Parti Québécois, so if they merged they'd just be coming back home.

[Acajack]

Liberal vote at 14% is the lowest in the history of the party.

Previous lowest was in 2018 and was 25%.

[MolsonExport]

And the PQ elected....one or two people only?

Those silent toilets are even more silent now.

Rene Levesque was far more of a "man of the people" than Jolly pur-et-dur "By Jove" Jacques Parizeau (with his three-piece Savile Row suits). People love to pile on Trudeau because he came from money, but so did Parizeau. Unlike Rene. I always liked Rene Levesque. I could respect Jacques Parizeau (and Pauline Marois, except for her silent toilets). I disliked Bernard Landry. PK Peladeau was worthless.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thurmas

With this likely Legault's last election who in the CAQ caucus would likely be his heir apparent ?

I would have said Simon Jolin-Barrette, who is the point man for language and secularism, but the CAQ recruited former PQ bigwig and media personality Bernard Drainville before the election, and he won tonight.

So either one of those two I'd say.

There is also Deputy Premier Geneviève Guilbault, who might be the prettiest person in all of Canadian politics.