Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

338 has an interesting set of projections up.

https://338canada.com/nb/mapgeo.htm

My only caveat is they use uniform swing. Miramichi East is definitely not tilting Liberal, and the PA is not getting 18% against ex-member Conroy... if they even manage a candidate. Likewise, the Greens are not going to get a 2020 repeat performance in either south Fredericton riding: David Coon has a lot of PC friendly suburbs and exurbs in his seat now, and Holt will likely hoover up a lot of Coon 2020 voters in her seat. An increasingly possible, if not plausible, outcome would be Coon AND Holt losing their races, while the Liberals win a narrow plurality of seats.

[sailor734]

So,if those predictions came to be, it could be a fascinating situation trying to get a speaker.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I think regardless it will be a spectacle in electing a speaker. Personally I expect a Liberal minority government with the Greens propping them up. We are still months out so who really knows what will happen

[J81]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I don't think it's a compelling argument to the median citizen that the junkie screaming on their doorstep needs to be enabled with cash and needles, and otherwise left alone. There's a gigantic quality of life issue affecting a lot of people, often poor, OFF the streets here. Break-ins, trespassing, random attacks, and so on have made previously quiet neighbourhoods unpleasant and unsafe to live in. There's an undercurrent of anger replacing sympathy and tolerance.

And is the Liberal plan basically 1) wait for the person to ask for help 2) give them stuff 3) carry on as-is? Pointing to Halifax as a positive example in this is truly shocking. Waiting for people clearly not in their right minds to have a moment of clarity, die, or commit a violent crime strikes me as callous. Unless they present a proactive plan that doesn't involve endless funding of the nascent 'homeless-industrial complex' and ice fishing shacks on every vacant lot, I don't know if saying 'think of the civil rights of people stealing your barbecue and leaving needles on the playground' will have much pull.

Somewhat editorializing but we've had a developing serious homelessness problem here for what, three years? I had NEVER heard people as viscerally angry at the state of our public spaces and the behaviour of the homeless until very recently. People want a solution. I mean, I'm in a two week long argument with the city over the proximity of a deck post to the property line. Then I go outside and see someone smoking crack 10 meters from St Joe's, a constant stream of nocturnal motorcycle traffic to the Exmouth encampment, and increasingly open prostitution. It's not a fair deal to law abiding people.

And yes, I know the majority of homeless people aren't doing this. But the majority of people in tents downtown sure are. The 'invisible homeless' on couches, on a cot in a friend's garage, or in their cars are clearly not the issue. Conflating the two does not make the first group disappear. The second needs housing and support, the first needs to stop making everyone else's lives worse.

Well said!

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I think regardless it will be a spectacle in electing a speaker. Personally I expect a Liberal minority government with the Greens propping them up. We are still months out so who really knows what will happen

Also, even if the PCs get 24 or fewer seats, they'll get the first kick at the can as long as the Liberals have fewer than they do. I doubt any Greens or Liberals would be willing to be Speaker for the PCs, but it's worth mentioning. Liberals would need a commanding minority, 23-24 seats, with 3+ Greens, for any stability. The PCs are probably going to hold ~21 seats in a worst-case scenario, but with a more blue-Tory caucus they could govern with 25 seats. It's going to come down to a very short list of competitive seats, some 3-way.

Like I said up-thread, the PC and Green candidate lists remain extremely unsettled in the Saint John and North Shore areas respectively. Haven't heard a whisper of prospective PC candidates around here. No idea if Coon will actually try to compete up there. He's not nominating very impressive people in other Fredericton ridings or in Saint John.

If I got bonked on the head today, woke up in December, and you told me Higgs was underpolled, again, and won 27 seats, I'd believe it. If you told me Holt got 27 seats off candidate recruitment in Anglo metros, I'd believe it. If you told me Higgs kept 24 seats, Coon won 5, and the Liberals were governing with just 20, I'd believe that too. The only thing I wouldn't believe is either the PCs or the Liberals having less than 20 seats each. This is a base battle election. No wave coming.

[sailor734]

Back to the federal level.......This Ipsos poll projection seems like it must be an aberration but I suppose the Liberals have been down that far before.

I'm surprised to see that much NDP strength with Singh as leader. Although, I suppose he could be benefitting from an "at least he's not Trudeau" thought process.

https://twitter.com/NickKouvalis/sta...75193698013596

I'm still half wondering if JT won't pull a Mulroney, find himself a Kim Campbell, and slip away.....leaving them for the slaughter.

[lirette]

I've posted this before but I'll post it again. The current wait times for addiction treatment for people who actually want it is months. The idea that there are staff in this industry twiddling their thumbs waiting for homeless people to be thrown at them is so misguided I don't know where to start.

They can pass this law all they want buy I've yet to see any compelling evidence a forced treatment policy works and the people in the industry who do the treatment will tell you the same. All it will be is platitudes to announce this policy. It will make the people who post on newschasers about every person in a hoodie in the neighbourhood feel better.

I think people in this country are going to be putting themselves in pretzels when we have a conservative prime minister and possibly a conservative premiere and these issues continue to get worse.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Also, even if the PCs get 24 or fewer seats, they'll get the first kick at the can as long as the Liberals have fewer than they do. I doubt any Greens or Liberals would be willing to be Speaker for the PCs, but it's worth mentioning. Liberals would need a commanding minority, 23-24 seats, with 3+ Greens, for any stability. The PCs are probably going to hold ~21 seats in a worst-case scenario, but with a more blue-Tory caucus they could govern with 25 seats. It's going to come down to a very short list of competitive seats, some 3-way.

Like I said up-thread, the PC and Green candidate lists remain extremely unsettled in the Saint John and North Shore areas respectively. Haven't heard a whisper of prospective PC candidates around here. No idea if Coon will actually try to compete up there. He's not nominating very impressive people in other Fredericton ridings or in Saint John.

If I got bonked on the head today, woke up in December, and you told me Higgs was underpolled, again, and won 27 seats, I'd believe it. If you told me Holt got 27 seats off candidate recruitment in Anglo metros, I'd believe it. If you told me Higgs kept 24 seats, Coon won 5, and the Liberals were governing with just 20, I'd believe that too. The only thing I wouldn't believe is either the PCs or the Liberals having less than 20 seats each. This is a base battle election. No wave coming.

NB speaker votes on ties and (I think) has to vote with government on confidence motions. Don't know if that last bit is parliamentary tradition or an actual rule of the legislature.

PC's could govern with 25 seats that included a true blue loyalist in the Speaker's chair.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by lirette

I've posted this before but I'll post it again. The current wait times for addiction treatment for people who actually want it is months. The idea that there are staff in this industry twiddling their thumbs waiting for homeless people to be thrown at them is so misguided I don't know where to start.

They can pass this law all they want buy I've yet to see any compelling evidence a forced treatment policy works and the people in the industry who do the treatment will tell you the same. All it will be is platitudes to announce this policy. It will make the people who post on newschasers about every person in a hoodie in the neighbourhood feel better.

I think people in this country are going to be putting themselves in pretzels when we have a conservative prime minister and possibly a conservative premiere and these issues continue to get worse.

Yes, that was my point. If it is possible to create all these new treatment beds why hasn't it already been done to serve people who actually want help?

[MonctonRad]

Good points lirette. The proposal for forced treatment of incoherent druggies on the street, in all honesty, is probably more that of forced institutionalization in order to move the problem beyond view and behind brick walls. Any treatment these people receive will be sporadic and incidental. The system currently does not have the capacity to deal with the problem fully.

Is this a bad policy however? No, not necessarily. Homeless addicts on the street are at risk for themselves and to others. One has to look no farther than the two lives lost the other day in the encampment fire in Saint John. Druggies need money to feed their habits and petty crime, thefts and break-ins are subsequently rampant. Needles litter the schoolyards and parks in every city in the province. The status quo is unacceptable.

Ay least institutionalization would get these people off the streets. They would be housed, have warm beds and would be well fed. They would be removed from the pushers feeding their habit. Their overall health would be unquestionably better. At the same time, our streets would be cleaner and safer, and the crime rate should go down.

Would things be that much different than the 1960s when such people were sequestered in sanatoriums and psychiatric hospitals across the country? Was the push to deinstitutionalization in the 70s & 80s really a good thing?

Some people just have difficulty coping with society. The current paradigm leaves them alone to die in the bitter cold and on the street. We can do better.

Of course, these people deserve psychiatric care and rehabilitation services. Every effort should be made to provide them with strategies to succeed on their own. People who show promise should have the expectation of being released from protective custody.

There will be some however who will require institutionalization for life (for their own good). This is the humane thing to do.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Good points lirette. The proposal for forced treatment of incoherent druggies on the street, in all honesty, is probably more that of forced institutionalization in order to move the problem beyond view and behind brick walls. Any treatment these people receive will be sporadic and incidental. The system currently does not have the capacity to deal with the problem fully.

Is this a bad policy however? No, not necessarily. Homeless addicts on the street are at risk for themselves and to others. One has to look no farther than the two lives lost the other day in the encampment fire in Saint John. Druggies need money to feed their habits and petty crime, thefts and break-ins are subsequently rampant. Needles litter the schoolyards and parks in every city in the province. The status quo is unacceptable.

Ay least institutionalization would get these people off the streets. They would be housed, have warm beds and would be well fed. They would be removed from the pushers feeding their habit. Their overall health would be unquestionably better. At the same time, our streets would be cleaner and safer, and the crime rate should go down.

Would things be that much different than the 1960s when such people were sequestered in sanatoriums and psychiatric hospitals across the country? Was the push to deinstitutionalization in the 70s & 80s really a good thing?

Some people just have difficulty coping with society. The current paradigm leaves them alone to die in the bitter cold and on the street. We can do better.

Of course, these people deserve psychiatric care and rehabilitation services. Every effort should be made to provide them with strategies to succeed on their own. People who show promise should have the expectation of being released from protective custody.

There will be some however who will require institutionalization for life (for their own good). This is the humane thing to do.

I agree to a point. As always the devil is in the details. Civil liberties vs the overall good of society and in some cases protecting people from themselves.
Tough to get it right.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I agree to a point. As always the devil is in the details. Civil liberties vs the overall good of society and in some cases protecting people from themselves.
Tough to get it right.

Absolutely, very tough to get it right.

At its worst, such a policy would be highly authoritarian and paternalistic. Individuals (even incoherent druggies) have inherent rights. Psychiatric/psychological evaluations would absolutely be necessary early on in the process, and forcibly institutionalized individuals would absolutely have to have the right to appeal. A special court may be necessary for adjudication.

But, the fact remains that the status quo is unacceptable. So far we have been ineffective in dealing with the problem. I think a bigger stick is necessary.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But, the fact remains that the status quo is unacceptable. So far we have been ineffective in dealing with the problem. I think a bigger stick is necessary.

Looking at Uptown Saint John I have to say that unfortunately you may well be right.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by lirette

I've posted this before but I'll post it again. The current wait times for addiction treatment for people who actually want it is months. The idea that there are staff in this industry twiddling their thumbs waiting for homeless people to be thrown at them is so misguided I don't know where to start.

They can pass this law all they want buy I've yet to see any compelling evidence a forced treatment policy works and the people in the industry who do the treatment will tell you the same. All it will be is platitudes to announce this policy. It will make the people who post on newschasers about every person in a hoodie in the neighbourhood feel better.

I think people in this country are going to be putting themselves in pretzels when we have a conservative prime minister and possibly a conservative premiere and these issues continue to get worse.

Are you crazy? 'Every person in a hoodie' get real. Walk down Waterloo and say that with a straight face. Inflicting insane drug addicts on the poorest neighbourhood in the city and telling them 'it is what it is,' excellent. Truly great. Get these people somewhere they can't harm others or themselves.

[sailor734]

I think (hope) we all can agree that neither the status quo nor a continuation of the trend of the past few years is acceptable? Uptown is at it's lowest ebb that I can remember in 60+ years of living is SJ and the problem needs to be solved......period!

[Ifyoubuildit]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I think (hope) we all can agree that neither the status quo nor a continuation of the trend of the past few years is acceptable? Uptown is at it's lowest ebb that I can remember in 60+ years of living is SJ and the problem needs to be solved......period!

Those that commit any sort of criminal act should be faced with either real jail time or preferably a structured but confined rehab program. The degree and frequency of criminal acts is steadily increasing and it is only a matter of time before innocent people get physically hurt. More importantly, how does law enforcement and government tackle drug trafficking? Much stricter punishment for drug related offenses? If we removed the availability of drugs from the streets, I am confident we would see an incredible improvement.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Ifyoubuildit

Those that commit any sort of criminal act should be faced with either real jail time or preferably a structured but confined rehab program. The degree and frequency of criminal acts is steadily increasing and it is only a matter of time before innocent people get physically hurt. More importantly, how does law enforcement and government tackle drug trafficking? Much stricter punishment for drug related offenses? If we removed the availability of drugs from the streets, I am confident we would see an incredible improvement.

The US tried the “lock’em up and throw away the key approach” in their war on drugs. All they managed to do was create one of the largest prison populations in the world.

I’m not really sure anybody knows what answer is but agree that having people committing crime repeatedly while awaiting trial for earlier charges can’t be allowed to continue. At some point they need to be removed from society.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I think (hope) we all can agree that neither the status quo nor a continuation of the trend of the past few years is acceptable? Uptown is at it's lowest ebb that I can remember in 60+ years of living is SJ and the problem needs to be solved......period!

The problem - and its causes - need to be addressed, but I disagree that Uptown is at its lowest ebb, it is a comfortable and active place for the most part, one that I feel happy to live in/near and spend much of my time walking through to live my life.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Are you crazy? 'Every person in a hoodie' get real. Walk down Waterloo and say that with a straight face. Inflicting insane drug addicts on the poorest neighbourhood in the city and telling them 'it is what it is,' excellent. Truly great. Get these people somewhere they can't harm others or themselves.

Asking if someone's crazy is certainly one way to stifle a productive conversation. Again...there isn't capacity to handle voluntary treatment today and Higgs being the cheapest premier in Canada isnt likely to be putting any large scale investment in the space anytime soon. So if there isn't capacity and there isn't additional resources who is going to look after all of these newly incarcerated individuals ? When I talk about a law like these being platitudes it's because what's exactly what it will be.

Do you have a model where forced treatment has made a difference you can point to? I would honestly love to see the example. I try to be a pragmatic and realistic person when it comes to policy. If someone shows me some meaningful policy that's worked in another country or city I'm happy to read more about it and learn.

Boston & the rest of MASS for example has had an involuntary treatment law for many years, and there's a Harvard study done on it (and other studies) that single patient in 2017 who was in that program relapsed again within 1 year. The results are grim and they have some of the harshest forced rehab policies around.

Rather than a law that just makes people happy to hear about it I would much rather see announcements to improve and increase access to voluntary treatment and like many other issues, housing access is extremely important here. Ultimately these seem to be the policies that provide better outcomes, not to say that these are easy policies to enact. The people who are waiting for months for voluntary treatment later become the ones you want to force into treatment because they couldn't be helped earlier.

While we're at it let's also increase our number of social workers and pay them more to attract the best and brightest we can. The social worker is a key component to this issue. In Portugal the police played a sort of hybrid social worker role. I'm not sure if that's the best solution here since police have been having their own recruitment issues but I'm open to exploring it. We also have the by law officers in Moncton who communicate with the homeless on a daily basis.

[sailor734]

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nova-sco...test-1.6828967

The natives are getting restless.....if I was Trudeau's RCMP detail I'd be reviewing my contingency planning about "Response in case of mob of angry villagers with torches and pitchforks"