Downtowns are back

[LA21st]

Downtown LA's rental occupancy rate INCREASED during covid.
Wow.

And the apartments are only more expensive.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Here you are:

---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990

Near North Side ------ 105,481 ----- 80,484 ---- 72,811 ---- 62,842 ----- 31.1% ----- 10.5% ----- 15.9% ------ 6.8 km²

Loop -------------------- 42,298 ----- 29,283 ---- 16,388 ---- 11,954 ----- 44.4% ----- 78.7% ----- 37.1% ------ 3.9 km²

Near South Side ------- 28,795 ----- 21,390 ----- 9,509 ----- 6,828 ----- 34.6% ---- 124.9% ----- 39.3% ------ 4.6 km²

Near West Side -------- 48,719 ----- 36,789 ---- 21,689 ---- 17,978 ----- 32.4% ----- 69.6% ----- 20.6% ------ 7.4 km²

Central Chicago ---- 225,293 --- 167,946 --- 120,397 ---- 99,602 ----- 34.1% ----- 39.5% ----- 20.9% ------ 22.8 km²

Chicago MSA ----- 9,618,502 - 9,461,105 - 9,098,314 - 8,182,076 ------ 1.7% ------ 4.0% ----- 11.2% -- 18,634 km²


For Near West Side, as it's way too big, I considered only the eastern half of it, using 10 censos tracts.

As it happens in Near North Side, it's the census tracts near Loop the ones booming, in both NSS an NWS. In fact, the southernmost census tract in NSS, majority Black, is actually collapsing. In 1990, it made up 40% of NSS population. Today, it represents mere 4%.

Another thing: Chicago city proper minus Central Chicago declined by 7,000 people.

Thank you, Yuriandrade, for your work on this. This is very helpful info.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Thank you, Yuriandrade, for your work on this. This is very helpful info.

You're welcome, urban! It's time consuming, but it's quite enjoyable to see the results. I'm already on the 25th Downtown and counting.

Pretty much every US Downtown is booming, even from cities you almost don't mention here. Obviously circumstances and the scale are distinct, but it seems millions of Americans of all regions realized the urban life is amazing.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

In fact, the southernmost census tract in NSS, majority Black, is actually collapsing. In 1990, it made up 40% of NSS population. Today, it represents mere 4%.

That's likely because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_L._Ickes_Homes were demolished about 10 years ago (unless the souternmost census track you're considering is south of I-55?). The replacement project is just now getting built (https://www.mccafferyinc.com/portfolio/southbridge ), with 877 units.

[dktshb]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Downtown Los Angeles



As the US 2020 Census numbers are available, I decided to bring some actual figures. For Los Angeles, I used a 25 census tract area, that matches with the most usual definitions for Downtown LA.


-- 2020 ---- 2010 ---- 2000 ---- 1990

74,349 ---- 52,538 ---- 40,836 ---- 32,786 ---- 41.5% ---- 28.7% ---- 24.5%


It's a 14.86 km² area, for a density of 5,003 inh./km². Lots of room to densify. The growth is nothing but impressive. Almost doubled in the past 20 years.

One interesting thing I noticed while put the numbers together is the only area dropping was the census tract where Union Station is located. And dropped big: from 10,800 in 2000 to 5,500 in 2020. It represented over 1/4 of total population back then and now it's mere 7.5%.

I guess that puts the density at just under 13 thousand ppsm making it higher than the overall density of LA but not nearly as dense as the densest neighborhoods. Not sure if you included City West Census tracts just to the West Northwest of the 110 Freeway. Typically included with Downtown.

[mind field]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

You're welcome, urban! It's time consuming, but it's quite enjoyable to see the results. I'm already on the 25th Downtown and counting.

Pretty much every US Downtown is booming, even from cities you almost don't mention here. Obviously circumstances and the scale are distinct, but it seems millions of Americans of all regions realized the urban life is amazing.

Are you planning on posting more downtown data? Thanks for working on this, it's very interesting!!

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Here you are:

---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990

Near North Side ------ 105,481 ----- 80,484 ---- 72,811 ---- 62,842 ----- 31.1% ----- 10.5% ----- 15.9% ------ 6.8 km²

Loop -------------------- 42,298 ----- 29,283 ---- 16,388 ---- 11,954 ----- 44.4% ----- 78.7% ----- 37.1% ------ 3.9 km²

Near South Side ------- 28,795 ----- 21,390 ----- 9,509 ----- 6,828 ----- 34.6% ---- 124.9% ----- 39.3% ------ 4.6 km²

Near West Side -------- 48,719 ----- 36,789 ---- 21,689 ---- 17,978 ----- 32.4% ----- 69.6% ----- 20.6% ------ 7.4 km²

Central Chicago ---- 225,293 --- 167,946 --- 120,397 ---- 99,602 ----- 34.1% ----- 39.5% ----- 20.9% ------ 22.8 km²

Chicago MSA ----- 9,618,502 - 9,461,105 - 9,098,314 - 8,182,076 ------ 1.7% ------ 4.0% ----- 11.2% -- 18,634 km²


For Near West Side, as it's way too big, I considered only the eastern half of it, using 10 censos tracts.

As it happens in Near North Side, it's the census tracts near Loop the ones booming, in both NSS an NWS. In fact, the southernmost census tract in NSS, majority Black, is actually collapsing. In 1990, it made up 40% of NSS population. Today, it represents mere 4%.

Not to nitpick but if you are going to count some Near West Side then you should count all of it. The population in 2020 of NWS was 67,881. The Central Area which is Near West/South/North + The Loop grew by 58,417 people or 31.4%. Total population of those 4 areas today is 244,455.

Another thing: Chicago city proper minus Central Chicago declined by 7,000 people.

It is more nuanced than that and does not tell the complete story really. Besides the core (NNS, NWS, NSS, and The Loop) growing by a ton .

* The north lakefront (Lincoln Park, Lake View, North Center, Lincoln Square, Rogers Park, Edgewater, Uptown, West Ridge) grew by 25,718 people or a modest +5.48%.

* The south lakefront (Douglas, Oakland, Grand Boulevard, Washington Park, Hyde Park, Woodlawn, Kenwood, and South Shore) grew by 14,280 people or +8.06%.


Putting all of this together, the entire lakefront area from South Shore all the way north 20+ miles to the edge of the city in Rogers Park counting the greater downtown area including all of Near West Side gained 98,415 people compared to 2010. This is a growth rate of 11.82%.

To put that into further perspective, that area had a population of 832,772 in 2010 and 931,187 in 2020. That was larger than San Francisco and Boston both in 2010 and still is, and that area had a higher population growth than both of those cities from 2010 to 2020. To put it into further perspective, the city of Dallas outgained that area in the same time period by "only" 8000 people and some change.


Now for some more insights:
* The area of the city along I-55 going down to Midway (Armour Square, Garfield Ridge, Archer Heights, McKinley Park, Bridgeport, Brighton Park, West Elsdon, West Lawn, and Clearing) gained 5705 people or a modest +2.49%. Areas like Bridgeport, McKinley Park, and Brighton Park got a bit more Asian than 2010, and Archer Heights went from very little Asian population to an increasingly sizable one. The areas closest to Midway Airport like West Elsdon, West Lawn, Clearing, etc got more Hispanic and less white.


* The area of the far NW side of the city plus some others in the NW side kind of adjacent - Edison Park, Norwood Park, Forest Glen, Dunning, Montclare, and Jefferson Park gained 5661 people or a modest +3.84%. These areas gained 10,724 Hispanic people while losing 10,988 white people.

however...

* The area nearby in Portage Park, Irving Park, Belmont Cragin, Albany Park, Hermosa, and Avondale lost 10,249 people - some of this area is definitely gentrifying. Other areas of the city which lost population from 2000 to 2010 had some of the same activity happening so it'll be interesting to see if any of these areas actually turn around and gain population by 2030.


Where the city got slammed in population loss was really part of the south side and also west side:
The area of Englewood, West Englewood, Auburn Gresham, Washington Heights, Greater Grand Crossing, Roseland, West Pullman, and Pullman lost 28,486 people. That almost offsets the gains of the north lakefront and part of the NW side. Part of this area went through some big demographic shifts with areas like West Englewood going from only about 2% Hispanic in 2010 to nearly 20% Hispanic in 2020.



Then the area on the west side of Austin, North and South Lawndale, East and West Garfield Park, and Humboldt Park lost another 16,005 people. Yet again, some of these areas became a bit more Hispanic. Austin for example went from under 9% Hispanic in 2020 to nearly 20% Hispanic in 2020. We don't have the 2020 ACS data yet, but I can tell you that the loss in Austin was actually a few thousand people better than expected. My guess is in part due to an influx in Hispanic population.

In fact, Austin recorded the largest Hispanic population gain of any community area in the city with +9868 Hispanic people.
1. Austin: +9868 Hispanic people
2. Chicago Lawn: +7808
3. Garfield Ridge: +5573
4. West Englewood: +5058
5. Dunning: +5043
6. New City: +4066
7. Ashburn: +4025
8. Clearing: +3984
9. West Lawn: +2709
10. Near North Side: +2612


The city is becoming even more Hispanic, and more Asian now. The Hispanic population in the city is now greater than the Black population, and thus will be interesting to see the political battle play out. It will also be interesting to see if there can be some Asian representation now that the SW side is increasingly Asian. Bridgeport is now over 42% Asian and McKinley Park is approaching 30% now. Nearby in downtown, Near South Side and the Loop are both over 20% Asian now. Near West Side is almost 19% Asian now. Brighton Park is now nearly 11% Asian and Archer Heights went from 1% Asian in 2010 to 4.3% in 2020.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

That's likely because https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_L._Ickes_Homes were demolished about 10 years ago (unless the souternmost census track you're considering is south of I-55?). The replacement project is just now getting built (https://www.mccafferyinc.com/portfolio/southbridge ), with 877 units.

I believe that's the one. For Near South Side, the 5 tracts match perfectly with the official definition. And between 2010-2020 it grew a bit.

Originally Posted by dktshb

I guess that puts the density at just under 13 thousand ppsm making it higher than the overall density of LA but not nearly as dense as the densest neighborhoods. Not sure if you included City West Census tracts just to the West Northwest of the 110 Freeway. Typically included with Downtown.

No, I didn't. It's the traditional definition. West and South bordered by the freeways. Some blocks north of the freeway to include Union Station and to the east, Los Angeles River. 25 census tracts. It was one of the most challenging ones.

I intend to add more central neighbourhoods, but it's complicate as census tracts not always match with the districts definitions.

Anyway, Downtown LA has plenty of room to densify.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mind field

Are you planning on posting more downtown data? Thanks for working on this, it's very interesting!!

Thank you! Well, as long as you guys are interested, I'll be posting.

It's more than 30 downtowns now, ready to be posted, and a couple dozen of adjacent central neighbourhoods.

Originally Posted by marothisu

Not to nitpick but if you are going to count some Near West Side then you should count all of it. The population in 2020 of NWS was 67,881. The Central Area which is Near West/South/North + The Loop grew by 58,417 people or 31.4%. Total population of those 4 areas today is 244,455.

Not really. The thread is about Downtowns, CBDs, and strictly speaking, only the Loop and southern half of Near North Side are traditionally seen as such.

I added the NSS and the eastern half of NWS as @the urban politician and @Steely Dan noticed there are plenty of infill adjacent to Downtown is those areas. Moreover, NWS is disproportionally large and part of the it looks like a regular neighbourhood and not "Downtown".

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

I added the NSS and the eastern half of NWS as @the urban politician and @Steely Dan noticed there are plenty of infill adjacent to Downtown is those areas. Moreover, NWS is disproportionally large and part of the it looks like a regular neighbourhood and not "Downtown".

Just saying - consistency wise. If you are going to do that then you should be counting some of River West as part of downtown, which is part of West Town. The Grand and Chicago Blue Line stops there for example are very close to parts that anyone would count as downtown and the core. I do agree that core wise maybe you shouldn't count over where the United Center is but not counting some of the areas above in West Town doesn't make much sense.

What you also mention as The Loop + southern part of NNS is a pretty old definition as well. The core definitely now in some parts goes south of Roosevelt and also it's now pretty seamless for about 2/3 of the NNS going north through around Division St.

[Yuri]

Downtown & Midtown Atlanta





---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 ---- Growth ---- Density

Midtown ------------- 32,240 ----- 20,225 ---- 13,643 ----- 9,631 ----- 59.4% ----- 48.2% ----- 41.7% ------- 5.0 km² --- 6,415.9 inh./km²

Downtown ---------- 21,026 ----- 14,615 ---- 12,089 ----- 8,635 ----- 43.9% ----- 20.9% ----- 40.0% ------- 5.1 km² --- 4,114.7 inh./km²

Atlanta ------------ 498,715 ---- 427,042 --- 418,371 --- 393,962 ----- 16.8% ------ 2.1% ------ 6.2% ----- 350.5 km² --- 1,422.9 inh./km²

Atlanta MSA --- 6,089,815 -- 5,286,728 -- 4,263,438 -- 3,082,308 ----- 15.2% ----- 24.0% ---- 38.3% -- 22,496 km²



Same pattern: explosive growth all over the Downtown and Midtown axis, much faster than either the city or metro area. It's not intense as Miami, be it in terms of density of growth, but it definitely became a busy urban hub.

For definition, I used 5 census-tracts for Downtown and 10 tracts for Midtown.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by dktshb

I guess that puts the density at just under 13 thousand ppsm making it higher than the overall density of LA but not nearly as dense as the densest neighborhoods. Not sure if you included City West Census tracts just to the West Northwest of the 110 Freeway. Typically included with Downtown.

Yup, that's what I mentioned as well.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Xing

That’s a really big downtown- land wise.

It wasn't that long ago that what people considered downtown was a vastly smaller area: pretty much the Central Business District and a few blocks surrounding it.

Around 2008, significant construction began 3 km to the north in Yorkville. It was followed by high rise construction a few km west along the lakeshore and finally the development of a previously ignored area a few km east to the Don River. Visually and psychologically, it massively expanded 'downtown'.

It was very ambitious and initially looked like it would take generations to fill in. You could arguably fit 800+ new high-rises in there. There are still tons of places to build but, surprisingly, it already looks like one big downtown. The streetcar (tram) network is heavily concentrated in the core so that helps too. It gives the whole area a cohesive urban feel. It's currently at about 17,400 people sq km. It's nothing extreme but densifying rapidly.

[streetscaper]

great thread yuri

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Yup, that's what I mentioned as well.

For San Francisco, I worked with other central neighbourhoods. I pretty much covered their whole northeastern quarter.

However those traditional residential central districts in both SF and LA has been very dense for decades and therefore their population is pretty much stable or growing slowly.

Downtowns' boom, with all those residential conversions and infill, is a new phenomenon and that's what I was having in mind when opened this thread. It's not a thread about urban density per se.

But sure, as soon as I finish all Downtowns (still missing about 12 considering the metro areas above 1 million), I intend to work on other neighbourhoods in LA and elsewhere.

[10023]

edit: wrong thread

[edale]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Imo, USC is part of the greater downtown area, as it has the museum campus and several light rail stops.

No way. I went to USC, so I'm very familiar with the neighborhoods around campus, and the University Park area is absolutely not downtown. The residential neighborhoods around campus, especially to the north of campus toward Downtown, are leafy and quasi suburban. Figueroa is getting some substantial infill, but it is still dominated by strip malls and drive thru fast food by campus, and some car dealerships closer to the 10 freeway. Campus area feels like a different world than DTLA, in my opinion.

Btw I love to see all the development in that part of the city, and I can't wait for the Lucas Museum to open and Expo Park to get its much needed facelift.

[Labtec]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Downtown & Midtown Atlanta





---------------------- 2020 ------ 2010 ------ 2000 ------ 1990 ---- Growth ---- Density

Midtown ------------- 32,240 ----- 20,225 ---- 13,643 ----- 9,631 ----- 59.4% ----- 48.2% ----- 41.7% ------- 5.0 km² --- 6,415.9 inh./km²

Downtown ---------- 21,026 ----- 14,615 ---- 12,089 ----- 8,635 ----- 43.9% ----- 20.9% ----- 40.0% ------- 5.1 km² --- 4,114.7 inh./km²

Atlanta ------------ 498,715 ---- 427,042 --- 418,371 --- 393,962 ----- 16.8% ------ 2.1% ------ 6.2% ----- 350.5 km² --- 1,422.9 inh./km²

Atlanta MSA --- 6,089,815 -- 5,286,728 -- 4,263,438 -- 3,082,308 ----- 15.2% ----- 24.0% ---- 38.3% -- 22,496 km²



Same pattern: explosive growth all over the Downtown and Midtown axis, much faster than either the city or metro area. It's not intense as Miami, be it in terms of density of growth, but it definitely became a busy urban hub.

For definition, I used 5 census-tracts for Downtown and 10 tracts for Midtown.

Yes, many parts of midtown Atlanta is undergoing gentrification and residents are being priced out. There will be a tech influx in the city. Many tech companies opening offices in midtown (Airbnb, Facebook, Google) with Microsoft planning to build a large campus.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

It is more nuanced than that and does not tell the complete story really. Besides the core (NNS, NWS, NSS, and The Loop) growing by a ton .

* The north lakefront (Lincoln Park, Lake View, North Center, Lincoln Square, Rogers Park, Edgewater, Uptown, West Ridge) grew by 25,718 people or a modest +5.48%.

* The south lakefront (Douglas, Oakland, Grand Boulevard, Washington Park, Hyde Park, Woodlawn, Kenwood, and South Shore) grew by 14,280 people or +8.06%.


Putting all of this together, the entire lakefront area from South Shore all the way north 20+ miles to the edge of the city in Rogers Park counting the greater downtown area including all of Near West Side gained 98,415 people compared to 2010. This is a growth rate of 11.82%.

To put that into further perspective, that area had a population of 832,772 in 2010 and 931,187 in 2020. That was larger than San Francisco and Boston both in 2010 and still is, and that area had a higher population growth than both of those cities from 2010 to 2020. To put it into further perspective, the city of Dallas outgained that area in the same time period by "only" 8000 people and some change.


Now for some more insights:
* The area of the city along I-55 going down to Midway (Armour Square, Garfield Ridge, Archer Heights, McKinley Park, Bridgeport, Brighton Park, West Elsdon, West Lawn, and Clearing) gained 5705 people or a modest +2.49%. Areas like Bridgeport, McKinley Park, and Brighton Park got a bit more Asian than 2010, and Archer Heights went from very little Asian population to an increasingly sizable one. The areas closest to Midway Airport like West Elsdon, West Lawn, Clearing, etc got more Hispanic and less white.


* The area of the far NW side of the city plus some others in the NW side kind of adjacent - Edison Park, Norwood Park, Forest Glen, Dunning, Montclare, and Jefferson Park gained 5661 people or a modest +3.84%. These areas gained 10,724 Hispanic people while losing 10,988 white people.

however...

* The area nearby in Portage Park, Irving Park, Belmont Cragin, Albany Park, Hermosa, and Avondale lost 10,249 people - some of this area is definitely gentrifying. Other areas of the city which lost population from 2000 to 2010 had some of the same activity happening so it'll be interesting to see if any of these areas actually turn around and gain population by 2030.


Where the city got slammed in population loss was really part of the south side and also west side:
The area of Englewood, West Englewood, Auburn Gresham, Washington Heights, Greater Grand Crossing, Roseland, West Pullman, and Pullman lost 28,486 people. That almost offsets the gains of the north lakefront and part of the NW side. Part of this area went through some big demographic shifts with areas like West Englewood going from only about 2% Hispanic in 2010 to nearly 20% Hispanic in 2020.



Then the area on the west side of Austin, North and South Lawndale, East and West Garfield Park, and Humboldt Park lost another 16,005 people. Yet again, some of these areas became a bit more Hispanic. Austin for example went from under 9% Hispanic in 2020 to nearly 20% Hispanic in 2020. We don't have the 2020 ACS data yet, but I can tell you that the loss in Austin was actually a few thousand people better than expected. My guess is in part due to an influx in Hispanic population.

thanks for the deeper dive into the numbers.

here's the WBEZ community area growth map that basically lays out what you said in visual form, and refutes the conventional narrative of chicago that only the downtown area is growing, while the rest of the city declines.



source: https://www.wbez.org/stories/census-...f-a32ffcc724b7


yes, downtown chicago is doing absolutely great, and it is the growth leader for not just the city, but indeed the entire metro area. however, the neighborhoods are a very mixed bag, as the map above shows, with some showing pretty solid to modest growth, and others continuing to empty out, with a healthy dose of stagnant and/or 1st stage gentrification population loss areas in between.

and IMO, the best news from this census for chicago is the growth of the south lakefront. yeah, much of the far southside is still continuing to empty out due to ongoing (though decreased) black flight, but if that tide is ever going to be turned, it has to start somewhere, and it's looking like that seed has already germinated on the south lakefront.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Labtec

Yes, many parts of midtown Atlanta is undergoing gentrification and residents are being priced out. There will be a tech influx in the city. Many tech companies opening offices in midtown (Airbnb, Facebook, Google) with Microsoft planning to build a large campus.

And note that both Downtown and Midtown actually grew even faster in 2020-2010 compared to 2010-2000.

Those are historical times, as we're watching the reversal of almost one century of suburbanization trends in the US and most of the urbanized world.

It must have been really exciting times for a Downtown dweller in the 2010's to watch all this activity around them.