CHICAGO | Politics and Current Events

[tjp]

^ I don’t think Johnson has proposed any taxes that will directly hit middle class families, depending on what the threshold is for the real estate transfer tax. What I’m worried is the job losses that could result from the corporate head and financial transaction taxes he’s proposing. Not to mention the hike on suburban Metra prices. Metra is already expensive, and making it more challenging for suburbanites to get downtown would absolutely make companies less likely to locate / stay there.

[tjp]

Originally Posted by marothisu

And honestly, if it weren't for his tax plan, it would be a little easier for me personally to align with Johnson. But that tax plan belongs in another year and not 2023. A lot of these things can lead to regression. At least he does seem to recognize that rising property taxes are a big issue. But he seems to think that raising other taxes won't have a negative impact which is short sighted IMO. Raising hotel taxes when Chicago is already the highest in the country isn't good and neither is more taxes on jet fuel. That will drive tourism and also convention business further away from here. Charging a financial transaction tax will hurt the thriving financial industry here too - some financial companies have made it clear they have no problems investing their business in historically non traditional financial centers such as Miami, Tampa, and Dallas. Chicago's competitive advantage in this regard has waned as we have become too complacent. The employee head tax thing may be a wash if it's just $4 per employee per year. Chicago still has an advantage when it comes to this just due to COL but these things slowly chip away at that. Charging commuters in from the suburbs via Metra more will either deter them from coming into the city or cause even more people to drive. I have coworkers in the suburbs who now drive into downtown because it's cheaper than the Metra. This could be a regression in plans for a greener city/area.

On the topic of public safety, I do agree with a long term plan of actually addressing root causes. Always have. But the issue of crime is so complex and nothing is going to be fixed within a year or 2. You cannot just have massive reductions quickly in a police force and expect that were all going to be safe. These things need to be gradual and in proportion to any success of the overall plan. That's my big gripe with these things. At least Lightfoot appeared to understand this.

100% agreed on all of this.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

I'd really appreciate real criticisms, not just "tax and spend criminal coddler" or "CTU puppet".

For me, "CTU puppet" is a real criticism.

After all the fucking bullshit that organization pulled over the pandemic, I am now diametrically opposed to them.

In a two way contest, I will always vote for whichever candidate is not in the pocket of the CTU.

Yes, as the parent of two young children in CPS, I am a single issue voter when it comes to local politics.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by tjp

^ I don’t think Johnson has proposed any taxes that will directly hit middle class families, depending on what the threshold is for the real estate transfer tax. What I’m worried is the job losses that could result from the corporate head and financial transaction taxes he’s proposing. Not to mention the hike on suburban Metra prices. Metra is already expensive, and making it more challenging for suburbanites to get downtown would absolutely make companies less likely to locate / stay there.

What's interesting is even though Johnson has stated multiple times leading up to last night that his 3.5% income tax isn't part of his plan, it had to have been when he first released it. Every single outlet was reporting he wanted a 3.5% income tax. It's not like it was some random news outlet. My guess is Johnson saw the immediate blowback and immediately yanked it out of his plan.

My beef is he wants to tax everything under the sun that's already taxed to the max. He's proposing a hike on hotel taxes when we already have some of the highest in the nation. As a city that gets a fair share of tourism, I'm very against this.

He's also very for "Defund the Police", which is an instant no-go for me. It was a cute social experiment in 2020, but most people are over it now. For this time, Vallas is the better of the two candidates. If we were in a different era, under different circumstances, I think other candidates would have done better. People just want the crime to go down, and the CTU to be held accountable.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

For me, "CTU puppet" is a real criticism.

After all the fucking bullshit that organization pulled over the pandemic, I am now diametrically opposed to them.

In a two way contest, I will always vote for whichever candidate is not in the pocket of the CTU.

Yes, as the parent of two young children in CPS, I am a single issue voter when it comes to local politics.

I imagine most people here don't have kids and have never experienced the CTUs hold on CPS. The thought of Johnson an employee of the CTU negotiating with the union on taxpayers behalf is beyond frightening.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

For me, "CTU puppet" is a real criticism.

After all the fucking bullshit that organization pulled over the pandemic, I am now diametrically opposed to them.

In a two way contest, I will always vote for whichever candidate is not in the pocket of the CTU.

Yes, as the parent of two young children in CPS, I am a single issue voter when it comes to local politics.

If you replace "CTU/CPS" with "FOP/CPD" you would have a nice summary of the other side of the debate, in regards to Vallas. For me, Vallas/Johnson in the run-off was the worst possible outcome.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by twister244

What's interesting is even though Johnson has stated multiple times leading up to last night that his 3.5% income tax isn't part of his plan, it had to have been when he first released it. Every single outlet was reporting he wanted a 3.5% income tax. It's not like it was some random news outlet. My guess is Johnson saw the immediate blowback and immediately yanked it out of his plan.

My beef is he wants to tax everything under the sun that's already taxed to the max. He's proposing a hike on hotel taxes when we already have some of the highest in the nation. As a city that gets a fair share of tourism, I'm very against this.

He's also very for "Defund the Police", which is an instant no-go for me. It was a cute social experiment in 2020, but most people are over it now. For this time, Vallas is the better of the two candidates. If we were in a different era, under different circumstances, I think other candidates would have done better. People just want the crime to go down, and the CTU to be held accountable.

I had to go back and re-read articles about the 3.5% plan. There is an organization that Johnson aligns to with their own tax plan which called out a 3.5% tax for $100K+ households. The article did state though that he did not align with that part of the plan. It didn't offer anything about his stance other than he wasn't taking it at the time.

Still, everything else is even worse. Can I afford 3.5% income tax? Yes. I don't want to (did it in NYC...over it) but it's the other taxes that give me way more pause. Financial transaction tax? Taxing suburban commuters on Metra? Taxing hotels even more when Chicago is literally #1 highest in taxes? These are regressive taxes, not progressive. And while paying $4/yr headcount won't kill a big business, they will think twice about increasing headcount as much in Chicago than they normally would as a result. This impacts everyone.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by tjp

^ I don’t think Johnson has proposed any taxes that will directly hit middle class families, depending on what the threshold is for the real estate transfer tax. What I’m worried is the job losses that could result from the corporate head and financial transaction taxes he’s proposing. Not to mention the hike on suburban Metra prices. Metra is already expensive, and making it more challenging for suburbanites to get downtown would absolutely make companies less likely to locate / stay there.

Every tax Johnson has proposed is a job killer. That hurts, rich, middle class and the poor.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by twister244

My beef is he wants to tax everything under the sun that's already taxed to the max. He's proposing a hike on hotel taxes when we already have some of the highest in the nation. As a city that gets a fair share of tourism, I'm very against this.

I'm not a fan of Johnson's tax proposals, at all. On the other hand, unlike Vallas, he has actually presented a way to pay for his agenda. When will Vallas have to show the numbers on his spending proposals?

I personally prefer "tax & spend" to just "spend" as the second just takes us back to Daly-era politics. Vallas needs to answer for why districts seemed to end up in worse financial shape after he left.

Philly Enquirer:

By the end of the Vallas era, both Vallas and the city were disenchanted. A “surprise” $73 million deficit had cropped up. Vallas had enormous ambitions, and spent accordingly, souring his backers on his ability to lead effectively. In the end, Vallas skipped out on a School Reform Commission farewell.

After Philadelphia, Vallas became schools chief in post-Katrina New Orleans, where he closed traditional schools, expanded charters, and generally embraced a free-market model for public education.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

I'm not a fan of Johnson's tax proposals, at all. On the other hand, unlike Vallas, he has actually presented a way to pay for his agenda. When will Vallas have to show the numbers on his spending proposals?

I personally prefer "tax & spend" to just "spend" as the second just takes us back to Daly-era politics. Vallas needs to answer for why districts seemed to end up in worse financial shape after he left.

Philly Enquirer:

I don't disagree with that sentiment but Johnson's plan will be regressive. For example, when we raise hotel taxes even more (again, we're the top in the country and that's not a good thing) that hotels become more expensive it will decrease tourism and also make a lot of the conventions think twice about holding their events in Chicago. This hurts those who work in that industry which covers all income classes.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I don't disagree with that sentiment but Johnson's plan will be regressive. For example, when we raise hotel taxes even more (again, we're the top in the country and that's not a good thing) that hotels become more expensive it will decrease tourism and also make a lot of the conventions think twice about holding their events in Chicago. This hurts those who work in that industry which covers all income classes.

We are on the same page. Johnson is a "no go" in my book.

My criticism was more aimed at Vallas, who hasn't described how he will pay for his wish list. This especially concerns me given his past experience as Daly's "budget guy" and questionable financial stewardship while running different school districts.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

If you replace "CTU/CPS" with "FOP/CPD" you would have a nice summary of the other side of the debate, in regards to Vallas. For me, Vallas/Johnson in the run-off was the worst possible outcome.

This is a false equivalency in my book. Only one of the two is/was a paid employee/lobbyist for and owes virtually their entire financial backing to the union in question. The other received an endorsement.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

This is a false equivalency in my book. Only one of the two is/was a paid employee/lobbyist for and owes virtually their entire financial backing to the union in question. The other received an endorsement.

BULLSEYE!

Johnson is 100% "of, by, and for" the CTU.

Vallas' relationship with the FOP seems far more "political convenience" to me.

[Rizzo]

I’ve never been this concerned about a local election or this distrusting of the candidate pool.

I’m worried and don’t know what’s next on the horizon. I’ve seen my real estate value nearly flat line. My prop taxes increased 25% in the last 6 years, cost of managing a building in this city has skyrocketed to the point where I’ve had to take on that responsibility myself and I do think it’s tied to current issues. level of public services seems eroded and further burdened by expiration of federal funds. I realize crime is bad everywhere, but our reputation the most damaged nationwide. Morale and civic pride seem lower than ever among everyone I talk to. Feeling burned out and concerned. I wish there was a candidate to be excited about this election with more mechanical solutions vs long term aspirations that will do nothing to repair urgent problems

[tjp]

In alderperson news, Angela Clay is advancing to the run-off in the 46th ward in a pretty strong position. It'll be really difficult to get any market rate apartment developments approved if she wins.

[Tom In Chicago]

OK now that we're in the runoff times, I've got questions. . .

1) Given that only 1/3 of eligible Chicago voters showed up to the general, what percentage do you expect for the runoff?

2) Assuming Vallas/Johnson voters will continue to vote in line for their candidate come April, what percentage of those remaining voters will show up?

3) What percentage of those remaining votes go to whom? List ??% Vallas ??% Johnson for the following:
3a) Lori Lightfoot
3b) Jesus Garcia
3c) Willie Wilson
3d) Ja'Mal Green
3e) Kam Buckner
3f) Sophia King
3g) Roderick Sawyer

I'd like to think we could game this out and predict the winner in short order using my extremely inaccurate scientific method. . . what say you???

. . .

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

I imagine most people here don't have kids and have never experienced the CTUs hold on CPS. The thought of Johnson an employee of the CTU negotiating with the union on taxpayers behalf is beyond frightening.

I think any mayor in the pockets of either the CTU or the CPD/FOP is a terrible thing. Both the teachers and police unions are absolutely horrific and need to have their power severely finished politically.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by Rizzo

I’ve never been this concerned about a local election or this distrusting of the candidate pool.

I’m worried and don’t know what’s next on the horizon. I’ve seen my real estate value nearly flat line. My prop taxes increased 25% in the last 6 years, cost of managing a building in this city has skyrocketed to the point where I’ve had to take on that responsibility myself and I do think it’s tied to current issues. level of public services seems eroded and further burdened by expiration of federal funds. I realize crime is bad everywhere, but our reputation the most damaged nationwide. Morale and civic pride seem lower than ever among everyone I talk to. Feeling burned out and concerned. I wish there was a candidate to be excited about this election with more mechanical solutions vs long term aspirations that will do nothing to repair urgent problems

Morale? Civic Pride? I haven't heard a damned thing positive about Chicago in several years, it seems. Perception has become reality, the constant barrage of "if it bleeds, it leads" has completely destroyed people's ability to critically think for themselves. Seriously, what this city needs is a massive Ra! Ra! Ra! Mayor who constantly talks about what makes this city great as opposed to constantly being somber about its issue, at least in the public forum. This city needs a morale boost in the worst way! The first place to start is our local media, pretty much everything reported is what a shithole this place is. Enough, already!

It wasn't like this pre -COVID, or at least it didn't seem this bad. People's mindsets have changed in the last few years, entirely for the worse, unfortunately.

Aaron (Glowrock)

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

OK now that we're in the runoff times, I've got questions. . .

1) Given that only 1/3 of eligible Chicago voters showed up to the general, what percentage do you expect for the runoff?

2) Assuming Vallas/Johnson voters will continue to vote in line for their candidate come April, what percentage of those remaining voters will show up? Johnson will try to get most of the black vote but they are not a majority.

3) What percentage of those remaining votes go to whom? List ??% Vallas ??% Johnson for the following:
3a) Lori Lightfoot
3b) Jesus Garcia
3c) Willie Wilson
3d) Ja'Mal Green
3e) Kam Buckner
3f) Sophia King
3g) Roderick Sawyer

I'd like to think we could game this out and predict the winner in short order using my extremely inaccurate scientific method. . . what say you???

. . .

Is it possible Garcia's voters will gravitate to Vallas in a majority? Who will get the majority of the Hispanic vote? Who did the diverse Asian voters choose? Johnson is going to try to get most of the black vote but they are not a majority. Are there blocks of white voters attracted to Johnson?

The business group and their monies are clearly backing Vallas for good reason.

Turnout is going to be very important. Every Vallas voter has to go out and vote again preferably twice. Vallas needs about 15% more votes, but from whom the most?

[Docere]

Interesting to see the map for the primary here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_C..._recolored.svg

My reading: Lightfoot has African American support, Garcia from Latinos. Vallas won the affluent downtown vote as well as the WWC vote. Johnson won most of the progressive parts of the North Side.

Johnson second with African Americans and Vallas strong with Latinos.