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  #1761  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2024, 4:07 PM
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Originally Posted by P'tit Renard View Post
With the likely reelection of Trump at this point, hard to see how this situation doesn't seriously test US-Canada relations or lead to serious repercussions for Canada...Trump will likely push for the Northern Wall. Another casualty of Trudeau's misguided TFW/International student policies:



Sharp rise in Indians detained at US border with Canada - with number caught attempting to sneak across already 50% higher than last year
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ocumented.html
Likely re-election of Trump? According to whom? His trial starts today and there are more to come. The election isn’t for half a year still.
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  #1762  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2024, 4:26 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by P'tit Renard View Post
With the likely reelection of Trump at this point, hard to see how this situation doesn't seriously test US-Canada relations or lead to serious repercussions for Canada...Trump will likely push for the Northern Wall. Another casualty of Trudeau's misguided TFW/International student policies:

Sharp rise in Indians detained at US border with Canada - with number caught attempting to sneak across already 50% higher than last year
]
Do we care if they build a wall? (Which would be impossible anyway)

We want to avoid a thicker border for sure but illegal crossing aren't bombs. This is about enforcement between border posts which is actually something we have been asking to US to pay attention to.
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  #1763  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2024, 4:36 PM
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Do we care if they build a wall? (Which would be impossible anyway)
Don't forget, the Trumpster will demand that we pay for the wall.
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  #1764  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2024, 10:36 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Don't forget, the Trumpster will demand that we pay for the wall.
Maybe we can get the Mexicans to pay for our wall ....
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  #1765  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 4:46 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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While Trudeau fiddles…




Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Britain will put its defense industry on a war footing - UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

Great Britain will increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030: the British authorities will invest an additional £75 billion in the military-industrial complex over six years.

"If we don't deter Russia in Ukraine, all we are going to do is embolden Putin to go even further and, indeed, embolden other adversaries around the world to do the same," he said.
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  #1766  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 4:52 PM
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Originally Posted by YOWetal View Post
Do we care if they build a wall? (Which would be impossible anyway)

We want to avoid a thicker border for sure but illegal crossing aren't bombs. This is about enforcement between border posts which is actually something we have been asking to US to pay attention to.
It does show how completely unappealing the Canada created by Trudeau is to many immigrants. Why would you stay in a high cost, high tax environment when better economic opportunities are just a thin line away?
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  #1767  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 5:21 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
It does show how completely unappealing the Canada created by Trudeau is to many immigrants. Why would you stay in a high cost, high tax environment when better economic opportunities are just a thin line away?
Especially if your intention was to get to the USA in the first place.
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  #1768  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 6:20 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Apparently the government has the intention to spend $5B on an AEW fleet. And this is causing some questions about the few hundred million that was in the defence strategy. Not sure what to make of them going around saying they are going to start shopping for AEW.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-spa...n-aew-aircraft
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  #1769  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 8:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Apparently the government has the intention to spend $5B on an AEW fleet. And this is causing some questions about the few hundred million that was in the defence strategy. Not sure what to make of them going around saying they are going to start shopping for AEW.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-spa...n-aew-aircraft
Check the lobbist ledger to see when someone from Bomb last visited the minister ....
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  #1770  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 8:29 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by shreddog View Post
Check the lobbist ledger to see when someone from Bomb last visited the minister ....
They already tried to push the GlobalEye with Saab as a Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

Honestly, it's actually a decent AEW aircraft. I know there will be lots of CAF voices clamouring for Five Eyes commonality with the US, UK and Aus all operating the Wedgetail and having frame commonality with the P-8s. But the GlobalEye is a decent platform and it wouldn't be the worst thing if picked and if we paired the project with a VVIP fleet replacement as well.

My personal preference would be to see a Wedgetail fleet of 5 and then an intelligence collection fleet based on the Global frame (in conjunction with American projects doing the same). But that's probably a real long shot.
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  #1771  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2024, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by shreddog View Post
Check the lobbist ledger to see when someone from Bomb last visited the minister ....
Well we could have had domestically assembled Saab fighter jets with Canadian developed software. Instead we went with a US fighter jet. A reasonable decision if at the end of the day we ended up with something better suited to the Air Forces needs.

The P-8 was clearly going to go to Boeing. The domestic product was vapor wear.

This time, there is a viable domestic product. Sweden is now part of NATO.

If we want to be at 2% (and I think we do), there clearly has to be domestic industrial benefits. We don't need every platform made in Canada, but where possible they should.
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  #1772  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 2:09 AM
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Well we could have had domestically assembled Saab fighter jets with Canadian developed software. Instead we went with a US fighter jet. A reasonable decision if at the end of the day we ended up with something better suited to the Air Forces needs.
Ever talked to anybody in our aerospace sector who doesn't work at an OEM? They don't want low skilled, low value added assembly work for 88 frames. They'd rather sell their widget and have it be on 2000-3000 F-35s. There's already a 1000 F-35s built.

Next, the Gripen would have been a poor buy for the RCAF. Small user pool. No capability growth room. Obsolete against higher end threats by 2040. It's a good complement to an F-35 with its EW suite and long range missiles. It's no substitute for an F-35 though. The F-35 has an entire continuous development program behind it that we are already benefiting from. Our F-35s will come with the ability to carry 6 missiles (vs 4 missiles for current versions). The F-35 has extra large generators built in to be able to support Directed Energy Weapons. The large user community ensures continued support. And inherent automation and stealth means it won't be obsolete for decades.

It's not just the tech. We let the bidders propose sensor pods and any weapons they wanted against the scenarios in the bid. They had to price in what they needed to accomplish the mission. Without stealth, you need more aircraft with more sensors and longer range missiles, on dedicated tasks, doing the same thing a small flight of 4 F-35s can do. So not only would we have had to buy more airplanes, more sensors and more weapons, we would also need the techs and supply chains to maintain and support all that. About the only thing the Gripen is b probably good for in Canada is a Lead-in Fighter Trainer (LIFT replacing the Hawk) and maybe if we ever set up reserve fighter squadrons.

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Originally Posted by casper View Post
This time, there is a viable domestic product. Sweden is now part of NATO.

If we want to be at 2% (and I think we do), there clearly has to be domestic industrial benefits. We don't need every platform made in Canada, but where possible they should.
Bombardier is supplying the air frame. They aren't supplying the radar or doing the integration. And there's more than one radar contender. In fact, the Bombardier Global was the platform for two different bids to replace the NATO AWACS fleet. The Saab GlobalEye and the L3 Harris Conformal Airborne Early Warning (CAEW) using conformal cheek fairings instead of a dorsal antenna. They both lost to the Wedgetail. The L3 version is actually better than the Saab which lacks 360 coverage and air-to-air refueling capabilities. Should be noted that all three of the AUKUS partners and NATO will be flying Wedgetails by 2030 and the combined fleet in service will probably be 50 frames by 2035 vs maybe 15 frames for the GlobalEye.

If we want to help Bombardier we can simply give them an order for 3-5 Globals to replace the VVIP fleet. If we really want to push indigenous development, don't buy AEW aircraft that aren't competitive globally. Fund a SIGINT/ELINT aircraft that our allies might buy and fund the necessary modifications to facilitate air-to-air refueling. Buy 3-5 of these aircraft and Bombardier will have sold 6-10 Globals in total to the CAF and be positioned to sell more elsewhere.
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  #1773  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 2:28 AM
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Senate passed Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan/TikTok bill.

From CNN

The final vote was 79-18. Fifteen Republicans voted with three Democrats against the bill. Forty-eight Democrats and 31 Republicans voted for the bill.
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  #1774  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 2:46 AM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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AUKUS partners are going to get ITAR exemptions. All those little regulatory changes that have economic payoffs, that nobody understands unless you're in an industry hit by them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-con...ns-2024-04-23/
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  #1775  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 3:02 AM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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We made the Warographics channel. Not in a good way.

Video Link
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  #1776  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 3:07 AM
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Originally Posted by YOWetal View Post
Do we care if they build a wall? (Which would be impossible anyway)

We want to avoid a thicker border for sure but illegal crossing aren't bombs. This is about enforcement between border posts which is actually something we have been asking to US to pay attention to.
Might cut down on the illegal guns being smuggled into Canada…
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  #1777  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 3:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
AUKUS partners are going to get ITAR exemptions. All those little regulatory changes that have economic payoffs, that nobody understands unless you're in an industry hit by them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-con...ns-2024-04-23/
Canadian companies with Controlled Goods are already exempt to much (but not all) ITAR restrictions. You would have to look at the details to see of they goes deeper. It very well may, the nuclear technology is closely guarded.

As for the fighter jets, I am not saying we ended up with the wrong decision at the end of the day. We ended up with the better aircraft. To get it what we passed on was the a team in Montreal that would have rewritten much of the Gripen software for use in NATO. Reasonable trade-off.

My point is we need to be strategic. Where we can develop competitive solutions domestically we should (and try to sell those to other NATO countries). Where we can't or it is going to compromise the ability of our forces to execute we should pass on the domestic development and buy the better solution.

Lets face it foreign OEMs/factories don't have a great track record of building solutions custom tailored to Canadian needs either. The CH-148 and Kingfishers are two examples.
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  #1778  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 1:24 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is offline
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Originally Posted by casper View Post
Canadian companies with Controlled Goods are already exempt to much (but not all) ITAR restrictions. You would have to look at the details to see of they goes deeper. It very well may, the nuclear technology is closely guarded.

As for the fighter jets, I am not saying we ended up with the wrong decision at the end of the day. We ended up with the better aircraft. To get it what we passed on was the a team in Montreal that would have rewritten much of the Gripen software for use in NATO. Reasonable trade-off.

My point is we need to be strategic. Where we can develop competitive solutions domestically we should (and try to sell those to other NATO countries). Where we can't or it is going to compromise the ability of our forces to execute we should pass on the domestic development and buy the better solution.

Lets face it foreign OEMs/factories don't have a great track record of building solutions custom tailored to Canadian needs either. The CH-148 and Kingfishers are two examples.
This is key. It is very difficult for politicians let alone the public to get good visibilitiy on the tradeoffs though. How much F35 supply chain would we lose vs how much direct work vs how much would we save with a cheaper airplane vs how does it limit us or put us in danger? DND has wishlists and they are the ones that have to game out possible scenarios but also prefer perfect solutions. Politicians therefore come to not trust anything they say. Of course asking the contractors especially as many are not entirely Canadian is even more problematic.
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  #1779  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 1:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
AUKUS partners are going to get ITAR exemptions. All those little regulatory changes that have economic payoffs, that nobody understands unless you're in an industry hit by them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-con...ns-2024-04-23/
Janice Stein mentioned the pickle Canada is in by not being a part of these "Pacific arrangements" that the US and its other allies are building. Its not about the platforms but is all about the tech development that we are not part of.

Go to the 37 minute mark
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-t...are&embed=true
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  #1780  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2024, 5:37 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
Janice Stein mentioned the pickle Canada is in by not being a part of these "Pacific arrangements" that the US and its other allies are building. Its not about the platforms but is all about the tech development that we are not part of.
I have said exactly this and it's been suggested here that since there is no way to quantify this we shouldn't concern ourselves. It's frustrating to see how we're slowly getting pushed out of these agreements and forums.
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