Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

lp198 · #1 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 7:46 PM**

Hi all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. Miami native dialing in from Chicago.

As Hurricane Ian bears down on Florida's west coast, I wanted to ask about the impact the storm might have on the explosive migration to Florida in recent years.

In the mid 2000s, when FL was experiencing multiple major hurricane landfalls per year, my company experienced significant difficulty in recruiting talent to Miami, many candidates specifically identifying weather as a concern. These concerns definitely cooled recently as Florida has been relatively spared by major landfalls - until today. I found an incredible amount of social media traction from newly arrived Florida residents expressing extreme panic regarding Ian as it approached -- new transplants to Tampa specifically.

It's looking like Ian is poised to absolutely devastate SW Florida. I'm curious what its impact will be on the appeal of the region to would-be transplants.

Prayers to all in the path.

Steely Dan · #2 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 7:55 PM**

humans tend to have short memories.

i don't think one hurricane all by itself will change much at the macro-scale, long term.

i mean, andrew was 30 years ago now, and that didn't seem to slow south florida's roll much, if at all.

but if the frequency/intensity of these kinds of storms increases, as many experts predict, cumulatively that might move the needle.

phone · #3 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 7:58 PM**

One hurricane won't do much, but it's hard to deny that as this decade and the ones to come wear on, the cumulative effects of climate change will impact potential newcomers' willingness to relocate to increasingly heavy extents. The same might be said for many places, and for different particular reasons, but Florida will certainly feel it more acutely than many others.

Don't Be That Guy · #4 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:01 PM**

The ability to get or afford property insurance will have more impact on growth in Florida than the storms will.

phone · #5 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy

The ability to get or afford property insurance will have more impact on growth in Florida than the storms will.

A distinction without a difference

SIGSEGV · #6 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:09 PM**

speaking of property insurance, I think I've read on here that many Floridians can only get home insurance from the state insurance provider... is the state going to be able to afford the bills after an event like this?

lp198 · #7 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

speaking of proprety insurance, I think I've read on here that many Floridians can only get home insurance from the state insurance provider... is the state going to be able to afford the bills after an event like this?

This is my concern. Being a Miami native, the dreaded "big one" roaring ashore in Dade county keeps me up at night.

Chisouthside · #8 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:35 PM**

not actual migration but related
https://www.chicagobusiness.com/life...n-private-jets

jmecklenborg · #9 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:43 PM**

This was a completely avoidable situation. A federal ban of residential construction on barrier islands should have been enacted 50 years ago.

According to this paper, approximately 1.4 million people live on barrier islands, including 700,000 on Florida's barrier islands:
https://bioone.org/journals/journal-...-00126.1.short

Steely Dan · #10 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:54 PM**

as far as the frequency of major hurricanes striking florida, of the 10 most intense recorded storms to ever hit the state (as measured by central pressure), 3 of them have now occurred within the past 6 years.

irma - 2017
michael - 2018
ian - 2022

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ida_hurricanes

WhipperSnapper · #11 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 8:58 PM**

It's not my intention to hijack this thread but, I would guess Fiona will have more lasting impact on investors buying in the Maritime provinces than Ian and Florida. This is a one massive storm however, Florida is accustomed and prepared for hurricane damage and devastation.

SIGSEGV · #12 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

This was a completely avoidable situation. A federal ban of residential construction on barrier islands should have been enacted 50 years ago.

According to this paper, approximately 1.4 million people live on barrier islands, including 700,000 on Florida's barrier islands:
https://bioone.org/journals/journal-...-00126.1.short

Very curious to see how Cape Coral makes it out of this. I remember reading this article some years ago: https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...-coral-215724/. Certainly probably a place that shouldn't be rebuilt if destroyed...

Centropolis · #13 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

This was a completely avoidable situation. A federal ban of residential construction on barrier islands should have been enacted 50 years ago.

According to this paper, approximately 1.4 million people live on barrier islands, including 700,000 on Florida's barrier islands:
https://bioone.org/journals/journal-...-00126.1.short

“inland” Ft. Myers, Punta Gorda, etc are underwater now, not just the barrier islands.

Centropolis · #14 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:12 PM**

I have family members in their attic now…no idea if they have an ax up there. I remember that as lesson (re) learned from Katrina but maybe Floridians have shorter memories…

I think this one is going to be a shocker.

chris08876 · #15 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:19 PM**

This one will be horrific. The storm surge will be what to look for. Plus, its slow moving. Dumping and barraging the West Coast with rain and wind and surge.

Posted these earlier (Weather/What Could Disappear Thread):

Centropolis · #16 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:21 PM**

I know half a dozen people whose “inland” houses are underwater now, including at least 2 separate (my) family homes.

chris08876 · #17 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:23 PM**

^^^

I was watching the Tampa cam earlier at work and everything went offline. Other cameras as well. I can't imagine once this is set and done the aftermath. Especially with Covid and contaminated water and so on. A storm for the books the way its going. The cost of it will also skyrocket (given how things cost these days). Could be a very costly one, right up with Sandy IMO.

But yeah, the inland homes or inland areas will be thrashed. Issue is also the rain. Slow moving, ton of rain. You figure with the elevation AMSL of some areas, will result in sewage overflowing and a lot of flooding. Likewise with tornados.

There was a tornado in Perry Airport yesterday or like 19 hours ago.

pj3000 · #18 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:26 PM**

Obviously don't want to see loss of life or people's homes.

But looking at this in a vacuum... if I was to pick an area of coastal Florida to be destroyed, Cape Coral area would be it. The disgusting, obliterative, and completely artificial over-development could all get washed away, and Florida would be better off as far as I am concerned.

homebucket · #19 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj3000

Obviously don't want to see loss of life or people's homes.

But looking at this in a vacuum... if I was to pick an area of coastal Florida to be destroyed, Cape Coral area would be it. The disgusting, obliterative, and completely artificial over-development could all get washed away, and Florida would be better off as far as I am concerned.

I've never heard of Cape Coral before. What's wrong with it?

Centropolis · #20 Posted **Sep 28, 2022, 9:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by homebucket

I've never heard of Cape Coral before. What's wrong with it?

its an absolute monster development built in a low-lying (even for florida) flood plain massive chunk of plastic and stucco.

sadly, its the type of place thousands of midwestern retirees could afford. SW florida in general probably accounts for 1/8 of the population of Illinois (and metro St. Louis).