japan population drop

[mrnyc]

yikes —




Japan’s population drops by nearly 800,000 with falls in every prefecture for the first time

Changing demographics are affecting nearly every part of society, while efforts to turn around the decline have so far had little impact

Gavin Blair in Tokyo
Wed 26 Jul 2023


Every one of Japan’s 47 prefectures posted a population drop in 2022, while the total number of Japanese people fell by nearly 800,000. The figures released by the Japan’s internal affairs ministry mark two new unwelcome records for a nation sailing into uncharted demographic territory, but on a course many other countries are set to follow.


more:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-births-deaths

[3rd&Brown]

Unless their cultural views vis a vis immigration change, this is their destiny.

I could see a future (long after we're gone) where the bulk of the world's people live in the West and Africa and East Asia is effectively an empty region.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Unless their cultural views vis a vis immigration change, this is their destiny.

I could see a future (long after we're gone) where the bulk of the world's people live in the West and Africa and East Asia is effectively an empty region.

I don't know if I would go that far. If current projections hold, East Asia will have a population of about a billion in the year 2100, which is the same as North and South America have today. I wouldn't call that 'empty' and, even with demographics which are based on simple things like how many babies there are, and how many babies current babies will have, I think making projections to the year 2100 are iffy at best. Imagine trying to predict the population of the world in 2000 in the year 1923?

But you're right that the world will become much more African, and this will have profound effects all over the world, not least in the US where black identity could be radically different in a world where one in every 3 people is African and the economic output of African countries is multiples of what it is now.

[mhays]

In the 1960s there was a significant worry about huge population growth, as well as widespread famine as food production wasn't supposed to keep up. It turns out that population growth slowed pretty quickly due to low birthrates, a trend that's continued. The extent has been a surprise ever since.

Japan could turn its birth rate around, but what trends suggest that? I have no idea.

Meanwhile birthrate isn't the only thing. The number of women of childbearing age is also decreasing, which will continue (absent widespread immigration) for the foreseeable future. Japan's peak age year cohort is about 1m women at age 50. The current childbearing group is about 670k per year but descending soon to 550k in this decade (guessing from graph). Babies and toddlers are around 400k per year. Wikipedia.

With dramatically fewer women, even the 2.1-baby standard would result in a quick population drop. And they were recently at 1.26.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mhays

In the 1960s there was a significant worry about huge population growth, as well as widespread famine as food production wasn't supposed to keep up. It turns out that population growth slowed pretty quickly due to low birthrates, a trend that's continued. The extent has been a surprise ever since.

Japan could turn its birth rate around, but what trends suggest that? I have no idea.

Meanwhile birthrate isn't the only thing. The number of women of childbearing age is also decreasing, which will continue (absent widespread immigration) for the foreseeable future. Japan's peak age year cohort is about 1m women at age 50. The current childbearing group is about 670k per year but descending soon to 550k in this decade (guessing from graph). Babies and toddlers are around 400k per year. Wikipedia.

With dramatically fewer women, even the 2.1-baby standard would result in a quick population drop. And they were recently at 1.26.

The other thing, which is less well known, is that fertility treatment is very much regulated in Japan.

It is a much much more conservative society than Westerners realize, because we view it as being advanced in so many other ways.

Just one example: I have a good (female) friend who is Japanese who recently (last 3 years) moved back to Japan after about 15 years in NYC. She wanted to be closer to her aging parents etc. She is unmarried but wants a partner and a family.

In her mid-30s and single (but very much eligible), she researched freezing her eggs as an insurance policy and it is point blank not allowed in Japan for single women. It is even difficult for married couples. They are expected to prove (somehow, who knows) that they've tried to conceive naturally before accessing IVF and egg freezing. I can only imagine the amount of time that takes...probably years. And in that time married people with fertility issues could be popping out kids.

The whole place is a bit backwards when it comes to reproduction in the modern era.

[jd3189]

Didn't we want to reduce the world's population to prevent future conflict over limited resources? Japan's population decline is mainly bad economically in terms of there not being enough people of working age. But with the advent of AI, most of those jobs are going to be lost anyway. Plus, we should be thinking more about degrowth these days. Economic growth can't be exponential eternally.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Didn't we want to reduce the world's population to prevent future conflict over limited resources? Japan's population decline is mainly bad economically in terms of there not being enough people of working age. But with the advent of AI, most of those jobs are going to be lost anyway. Plus, we should be thinking more about degrowth these days. Economic growth can't be exponential eternally.

Who knows what the future will bring, but in the meantime I think it’s best for people to decide for themselves and for governments to leave the issue be.

I don’t think degrowth is a healthy ideology, because you might as well be advocating for poverty instead of human well-being. But the economy exists for the sake of people, not the people for the sake of the economy.

Societies will rearrange themselves for tasks that are truly necessary, whether it’s more births or immigration. But governments are inept at controlling for which people and how many should fulfill each role.

[Six Corners]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Didn't we want to reduce the world's population to prevent future conflict over limited resources? Japan's population decline is mainly bad economically in terms of there not being enough people of working age. But with the advent of AI, most of those jobs are going to be lost anyway. Plus, we should be thinking more about degrowth these days. Economic growth can't be exponential eternally.

That was my first thought. I think the way we're "supposed" to think about it depends on what produces a more interesting headline. Lower carbon emissions and demand on local and international resources isn't too provacative. A negative economic impact with many unknowns for market corrections (none of which appear particularly unsolvable) brings in the clicks.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

yikes —

but on a course many other countries are set to follow.


more:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-births-deaths

Most other countries even developing countries in Africa and the middle east are rapidly leveling off. the Projections of 4 billion Africans is simply never going to happen.

Japan isn't even the worst, South Korea, China, Eastern Europe and Germany are all as bad or worse. People have been worried about overpopulation when the biggest issue for the next century is going to be declining and aging population.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Didn't we want to reduce the world's population to prevent future conflict over limited resources? Japan's population decline is mainly bad economically in terms of there not being enough people of working age. But with the advent of AI, most of those jobs are going to be lost anyway. Plus, we should be thinking more about degrowth these days. Economic growth can't be exponential eternally.

IDk who "We" is, but when people in power positions start spouting off about "Reducing the population" I get nervous.

[photoLith]

Sub Saharan Africa is already a nightmare world and with projected growth by 2100 it will become even more of a nightmare. However, what I've read is that Sub-Saharan Africa should start leveling off at some point around 2090 or so.

I often wonder what will happen to the megacities in East Asia, will half of the skyscrapers just become abandoned?

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

The other thing, which is less well known, is that fertility treatment is very much regulated in Japan.

It is a much much more conservative society than Westerners realize, because we view it as being advanced in so many other ways.

Just one example: I have a good (female) friend who is Japanese who recently (last 3 years) moved back to Japan after about 15 years in NYC. She wanted to be closer to her aging parents etc. She is unmarried but wants a partner and a family.

In her mid-30s and single (but very much eligible), she researched freezing her eggs as an insurance policy and it is point blank not allowed in Japan for single women. It is even difficult for married couples. They are expected to prove (somehow, who knows) that they've tried to conceive naturally before accessing IVF and egg freezing. I can only imagine the amount of time that takes...probably years. And in that time married people with fertility issues could be popping out kids.

The whole place is a bit backwards when it comes to reproduction in the modern era.

wow that is quite an example.

how byzantine.

the japanese are indeed extremely conservative.

out here we laugh at how you always find a japanese restaurant or something studiously popping up in the new hip part of town after it became safe. meanwhile, fearless chinese joints up in every hood forever lol.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by photoLith

Sub Saharan Africa is already a nightmare world and with projected growth by 2100 it will become even more of a nightmare. However, what I've read is that Sub-Saharan Africa should start leveling off at some point around 2090 or so.

I often wonder what will happen to the megacities in East Asia, will half of the skyscrapers just become abandoned?

It already is the past projections are way off. Birthrates in places like Chad have gon from 8 children per women to 4 in a decade. the fall is precipitous.

[SnowFire]

Another thing could be younger asian girls avoiding asian men. The expectations are very different in most of asia, very 1950s housewife style, vs the more partnership model you get in the western countries (grain of salt ect).

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by photoLith

I often wonder what will happen to the megacities in East Asia, will half of the skyscrapers just become abandoned?

The way it's working in East Asia is the rural areas are emptying out much more rapidly than the big cities, similar to most of the world. So I think we'll see largely depopulated/abandoned smaller towns but still have places like Tokyo and Seoul pretty much the same as today.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The way it's working in East Asia is the rural areas are emptying out much more rapidly than the big cities, similar to most of the world. So I think we'll see largely depopulated/abandoned smaller towns but still have places like Tokyo and Seoul pretty much the same as today.

The pattern of people moving from the country to the city is a process of economics people looking for higher pay. But the cities on average are OLDER than the countryside (Since birthrates are low in cities)

With projections of Asian countries showing some of them declining by nearly half by the end of the century with the remaining population being mostly old people I doubt any city will be spared.

In the long run you will see positives in this as a big issue without current economic model is how cheap labor is, similarly to large plagues in the past once the bloated older generation dies off the value of labor will skyrocket while assets will collapse in price giving younger people a higher quality of life.

Unfortunately, we will all be long dead before we see this.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Didn't we want to reduce the world's population to prevent future conflict over limited resources? Japan's population decline is mainly bad economically in terms of there not being enough people of working age. But with the advent of AI, most of those jobs are going to be lost anyway. Plus, we should be thinking more about degrowth these days. Economic growth can't be exponential eternally.

However many jobs there will be, the number is likely to be relative to the population size (consumers mostly).

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Who knows what the future will bring, but in the meantime I think it’s best for people to decide for themselves and for governments to leave the issue be.

I don’t think degrowth is a healthy ideology, because you might as well be advocating for poverty instead of human well-being. But the economy exists for the sake of people, not the people for the sake of the economy.

Societies will rearrange themselves for tasks that are truly necessary, whether it’s more births or immigration. But governments are inept at controlling for which people and how many should fulfill each role.

It looks like the future is going to be less populated than now. And that’s a choice people, especially women who can now choose to pursue a career and have kids later, have chosen.

Degrowth sounds bad, but it’s inevitable and it actually good in the long term. No need to go down the Malthusian fear hole. We will probably reach a steady human population level that will be less than whatever peak we reach this century.

The main thing is that the working youth will be needed to take care of the retired elderly. Boomers are only going to live longer and will required more medical care, which will cost more money and labor than what was once available. It’s not necessarily the end of the world; we need to just implement solutions that will help everyone.

Globally, there will be eventually be less births than deaths. And immigration will continue to be a hotly debated topic within the countries that need it the most ( The West, Japan, Korea, etc).

We need to look at the bigger picture. Eventually this global economic system that we have developed over the last 100 years of so will reach its limit. You’re right, we can’t force people to make more kids. We also can’t force them to have to complete with migrants who come from a different culture that can polarizing to their own. Thus, I would suggest that we continue to work towards a balance of some sorts before war inevitably becomes an option, as it always tends to be. But this time, it could be the last war we ever fight as a species. Just some food of thought.

[Obadno]

We can absolutely force people to have kids. Do you think all of the traditions of the past about family and marriage existed for no reason??

The idea is detestable in the framework of our modern liberal culture and moral frame but a society in which procreation is forced upon people has existed in the past and easily can again in the future.

Anyone who thinks "progress" is inevitable and the human condition will end up in Gene Rodenberry's Star Trek is fooling themselves and doesn't know history and especially never followed say... Chinese history. Regression can and does happen.. A lot.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by photoLith

Sub Saharan Africa is already a nightmare world and with projected growth by 2100 it will become even more of a nightmare. However, what I've read is that Sub-Saharan Africa should start leveling off at some point around 2090 or so.

I often wonder what will happen to the megacities in East Asia, will half of the skyscrapers just become abandoned?

It funny how white people who never think about Africa or no anything about it are always worried about it's population growth.
Just accept that for the rest of your life planet earth will continue to become more Africa and Black and non-Africa countries will also see growth if their african populations.