Observations on very recent immigration trends for your City

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Half of Arizona is now from California

It’d be interesting to see the demographics data of the Californians moving to Arizona. It’d wager they tend to lean on the older and whiter side. A significant portion are likely retirees that have cashed out on their CA dream (real estate).

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Half of Arizona is now from California

Originally Posted by LA21st

Sure Jan.

Maybe 25 percent of Nevada is from California. MAYBE.

I'd guess it's 15 for Arizona. I bet it's still far more mid western people in Arizona.

There is defintely a uptick of Russians/Europeans moving into hispanic areas in the SFV. Like Van Nuys and stuff.

Originally Posted by homebucket

It’d be interesting to see the demographics data of the Californians moving to Arizona. It’d wager they tend to lean on the older and whiter side. A significant portion are likely retirees that have cashed out on their CA dream (real estate).

This page I believe has the most recent IRS data:

https://usafacts.org/articles/725000...-they-move-to/

From 2020 to 2021, about 66,000 Californians moved to Arizona, and about 55,000 to Nevada. Both are dwarfed by Texas, which had 105,000 relocations from California. Nevada, however, has a higher percentage of its population overall that are recent California transplants, probably due to its overall lower denominator of lower state population.

I'm not sure about demographics. Older makes sense, but I'm not sure about whiter. Those numbers also miss about ~20% of California residents that don't file tax returns, likely on the poorer side, so the actual numbers are likely higher.

For Phoenix/Arizona on the international migration front, the big shift since I was younger seems to be South/Southeastern Asian immigrants, especially India and the Phillipines. Mexican immigration will obviously be king for the foreseeable future, but those two are ##2 and 4 in recent migration numbers.

See: https://www.azfamily.com/2022/05/29/...rants-phoenix/

[eschaton]

The Upshot did a graphic on this back in 2014. At that time, 9% of Arizonans were born in California, versus 38% being born within the state.

The number of midwesterners was indeed greater overall than the number of Californians.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by RST500

Do you think the tech exodus could shift the Bay Area's Asian immigrant population to other cities?

I've been seeing quite a few move out to the Tri-Valley (East Bay - San Ramon, Dublin, Pleasanton) or up to Sacramento. Not that many actually leave California though.

[Crawford]

There's also a huge Chicagoland population in the Phoenix area.

It's anecdotal, but I hear a lot of white SD and OC households move to AZ, and you see them back in SD and OC beaches in the summer. My aunt vacates her beachfront neighborhood in the summer, when it gets inundated by people with AZ plates, and the streets are completely jammed.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The Upshot did a graphic on this back in 2014. At that time, 9% of Arizonans were born in California, versus 38% being born within the state.

The number of midwesterners was indeed greater overall than the number of Californians.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's anecdotal, but I hear a lot of white SD and OC households move to AZ, and you see them back in SD and OC beaches in the summer. My aunt vacates her beachfront neighborhood in the summer, when it gets inundated by people with AZ plates, and the streets are completely jammed.

It'd also be interesting to see if the Californians moving to Arizona are native born Californians or if they're transplanted Californians that were already from other states (ie the Midwest or East Coast). I'd wager it's more likely the latter, since it seems like Midwesterns in particular are drawn to Arizona as their final earthly destination.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's anecdotal, but I hear a lot of white SD and OC households move to AZ, and you see them back in SD and OC beaches in the summer. My aunt vacates her beachfront neighborhood in the summer, when it gets inundated by people with AZ plates, and the streets are completely jammed.

One of the former SF forumers (Pedestrian) pretty much did this. He would live in AZ for the winter and move back to SF for the summer. He was also an older, white, and non CA native retiree which seems to align with the demographic trends.

[3rd&Brown]

I live in a sizeable (rare) new build neighborhood https://www.liveatnorthbank.com/ about a mile from Center City Philadelphia. It's new construction on an old industrial site (shipyard) with about 900 homes planned. 350 or so are settled, and to date, about 80% of the residents are Asian (probably 60% Chinese, 20% South Asian). I see a lot of out of state plates (NY, NJ in particular but also California, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Arkansas, Georgia). So far I've counted five Google employees among my neighbors who have relocated from CA or NY.

In the Philadelphia suburbs, especially if you are in a newer neighborhood, it will almost definitely be 50+% Asian, with the largest proportion being South Asian, whereas in the city, the largest proportion will be Chinese.

This demographic shift seems to be happening quickly. In Philadelphia proper, there are also ongoing waves of immigration from slavic and Russian speaking countries, but specifically Ukraine, Russia, Khazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia. Apparently immigrant resettlement agencies are settling immigrants in neighborhoods they've largely avoided in the past because there is no housing in traditional immigrant areas (namely, NE Philly).

We seem to get a lot of second wave immigrants in Philly as well. That is, immigrants that first settle in NYC but after a few years migrate down to Philadelphia.

[PHX31]

Lately in my area in north Phoenix I've been seeing and hearing about a lot more Asian/Chinese/Taiwanese students in the schools and pre-schools in the area, and I've anecdotally seen many more in my local grocery store and elsewhere. It's due to the TSMC semi-conductor plant for the most part.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's anecdotal, but I hear a lot of white SD and OC households move to AZ, and you see them back in SD and OC beaches in the summer. My aunt vacates her beachfront neighborhood in the summer, when it gets inundated by people with AZ plates, and the streets are completely jammed.

I imagine there could be some CA people that move to AZ and then go back for the summers, but the people at the CA beaches in the summer are not just CA locals coming back from AZ, a vast majority of them are just all-spectrum AZ people taking vacation from the heat for a few days or a week at the CA beaches.

And the "older" "white" qualifiers of CA people (or elsewhere) moving to AZ, especially "older" is a silly bias or stereotype. There are certainly more people retiring to AZ than to, say, Cleveland, but if the majority of people moving from somewhere to AZ (and Phoenix) are always older, then AZ/Phoenix would have one of the oldest median age demographics in the country, which just isn't the case. Arizona is 22nd youngest state, Phoenix is 17th youngest top 50 metro.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I live in a sizeable (rare) new build neighborhood https://www.liveatnorthbank.com/ about a mile from Center City Philadelphia. It's new construction on an old industrial site (shipyard) with about 900 homes planned. 350 or so are settled, and to date, about 80% of the residents are Asian (probably 60% Chinese, 20% South Asian). I see a lot of out of state plates (NY, NJ in particular but also California, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Arkansas, Georgia). So far I've counted five Google employees among my neighbors who have relocated from CA or NY.

In the Philadelphia suburbs, especially if you are in a newer neighborhood, it will almost definitely be 50+% Asian, with the largest proportion being South Asian, whereas in the city, the largest proportion will be Chinese.

This demographic shift seems to be happening quickly. In Philadelphia proper, there are also ongoing waves of immigration from slavic and Russian speaking countries, but specifically Ukraine, Russia, Khazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia. Apparently immigrant resettlement agencies are settling immigrants in neighborhoods they've largely avoided in the past because there is no housing in traditional immigrant areas (namely, NE Philly).

We seem to get a lot of second wave immigrants in Philly as well. That is, immigrants that first settle in NYC but after a few years migrate down to Philadelphia.

Chinese are more likely to live in the core than South Asians it seems. South Asians are the largest Asian group in the Greater Toronto Area, but there's more Chinese in the core. In part, I think it's the Chinese have been in the city longer and established a presence in the core.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Sure Jan.

Maybe 25 percent of Nevada is from California. MAYBE.

Thank you for clarifying because I literally meant half of the AZ population is now from California.

But you have now educated me thank you thank you for correcting my astounding ignorance.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There's also a huge Chicagoland population in the Phoenix area.

The primary immigrant starting in the 1970's through about 2015 was Midwesterners. Chicago, Wisconsin, Pittsburg, Michigan. and a smaller amount from NYC and NJ area.

After 2015 there was a sudden and extreme shift to Californians as now AZ is more expensive than most of the Midwest.

Californians as another poster put above is now half of our immigration it did not used to be that way.

I also dont think its retirees monolithically like it was long ago, again the price advantage to retire to AZ is no longer there. Its more middle income families from LA that feel pushed out and can simply live a lot better in metro phoenix than in suburban LA

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Docere

Chinese are more likely to live in the core than South Asians it seems. South Asians are the largest Asian group in the Greater Toronto Area, but there's more Chinese in the core. In part, I think it's the Chinese have been in the city longer and established a presence in the core.

The Chinese also seem to be more apt to live in Toronto highrise condos. I don't see a ton of South Asians coming in and out of all those newer core and core-adjacent condos. Seems to mostly be East Asians and whites.

[AviationGuy]

Thus far I have only anecdotal observations for Austin, at least based on places I go. Probably most notable is the gym where I've gone for the last 15 years. When I first joined, it was almost entirely a White clientele. Now, it's a mix of White, Black, Hispanic, Southeast Asian, South Asian, North African, and Middle Eastern. The White clientele appears to me to be the smallest percentage. The neighborhoods near the gym are diversifying as well. Again, this is anecdotal, and I don't know how representative it is of the city as a whole. I'll have to search for some data. I can say for sure that my neighborhood in north central has very little diversity, but close by neighborhoods appear to be more like the demographics of my gym.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by eschaton

The Upshot did a graphic on this back in 2014. At that time, 9% of Arizonans were born in California, versus 38% being born within the state.

The number of midwesterners was indeed greater overall than the number of Californians.

You're wrong!
It's 50 percent now! Some guy on this forum clearly has the evidence for it.

Didn't you know in 8 years
The percentage jumped 41 percent?
Come on dude. It only makes sense.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

This page I believe h5thas the most recent IRS data:

https://usafacts.org/articles/725000...-they-move-to/

From 2020 to 2021, about 66,000 Californians moved to Arizona, and about 55,000 to Nevada. Both are dwarfed by Texas, which had 105,000 relocations from California. Nevada, however, has a higher percentage of its population overall that are recent California transplants, probably due to its overall lower denominator of lower state population.

I'm not sure about demographics. Older makes sense, but I'm not sure about whiter. Those numbers also miss about ~20% of California residents that don't file tax returns, likely on the poorer side, so the actual numbers are likely higher.

For Phoenix/Arizona on the international migration front, the big shift since I was younger seems to be South/Southeastern Asian immigrants, especially India and the Phillipines. Mexican immigration will obviously be king for the foreseeable future, but those two are ##2 and 4 in recent migration numbers.

See: https://www.azfamily.com/2022/05/29/...rants-phoenix/

The percentage of californians in Nevada is much higher than Arizona.
I bet Oregon is 2nd.
Washington 3rd
Arizona 4
Idaho 5
Colorado 6

I don't think any other state has a significant percentage of californians.

[RST500]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The Chinese also seem to be more apt to live in Toronto highrise condos. I don't see a ton of South Asians coming in and out of all those newer core and core-adjacent condos. Seems to mostly be East Asians and whites.

In general yes, though I've heard that there is a South Asian dominated highrise district in Jersey City.

[RST500]

Originally Posted by PHX31

Lately in my area in north Phoenix I've been seeing and hearing about a lot more Asian/Chinese/Taiwanese students in the schools and pre-schools in the area, and I've anecdotally seen many more in my local grocery store and elsewhere. It's due to the TSMC semi-conductor plant for the most part.

There has been a lot of Chinese migrants showing up at the Yuma border, though it wouldn't surprise me if Chinese immigrants and Chinese Americans from LA and the Bay Area relocate to Phoenix.

[RST500]

I was recently in LA, and noticed a lot of Portuguese speakers, assuming Brazilians, ranging from Black to White. That previous poster could be right, though Brazilians seem to favor Boston and Miami.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by RST500

In general yes, though I've heard that there is a South Asian dominated highrise district in Jersey City.

Yes, Jersey City highrise developments seem very heavily South Asian. And Long Island City highrise developments seem very East Asian. Not exactly sure why these areas have developed such strong cultural affiliation.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yes, Jersey City highrise developments seem very heavily South Asian. And Long Island City highrise developments seem very East Asian. Not exactly sure why these areas have developed such strong cultural affiliation.

I've noticed this too.