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  #48141  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 2:45 AM
twister244 twister244 is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Chicago should be marketing even more towards people who can work remotely from anywhere but still want some sort of city life, and also companies who can be hybrid and want to cut costs on office space. Most of the co-workers in NYC of mine who have told me they're toying with a move to Chicago are ones who still want some semblance of city life but now realize that having 50 restaurants around is completely adequate versus 250 around if it means halving their rent/mortgage.
Agree completely with this. I am one of these people, except I am going from Denver to Chicago. Mostly because I have family in Chicago, and as a city, it far far exceeds Denver in terms of the urban experience. Denver is great if you love the outdoor lifestyle and ski, but if you like urbanism, Chicago is obviously the better choice.

Also, I keep harping on this, but I don't think people realize how cheap Chicago is for the urban living you get. It's the only major metro of it's size with the level of urbanism with the price point it currently has in the country. I hope that secret doesn't get out to too many people, because then you will get COI go up like crazy like it did here in Denver.
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  #48142  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 3:25 PM
west-town-brad west-town-brad is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ Now that’s a winner!

Interesting, developers in Chicago still seem bullish on apartments in Chicago despite the job market, empty trains, etc. I hope their bets pay off and there is a huge turnaround in the next year
the job market for what I will just call the "techie" jobs has never been hotter.

and those are the jobs that pay these level of rents.
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  #48143  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 4:11 PM
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I hope that secret doesn't get out to too many people, because then you will get COI go up like crazy like it did here in Denver.
Don't really need to worry about this. Chicago is a bottomless pit of capacity for more housing. The entire South and West Sides are severely depopulated (and continue to depopulate) plus we have vast tracts of post-industrial and CHA land that can be build upon. Not to mention that we have an enormous "greater downtown area" with capacity for 100s more highrises. ADUs have had a small impact in housing for other cities, but I think they will have a big splash in Chicago since we have such a strong tradition of alleys and coach houses to build upon.

This is an oversimplification but Chicago combines the legacy urbanity of NYC with the growth capacity of Houston. The key is making sure that we don't choke out all new growth with restrictive zoning the way LA has.
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  #48144  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 4:50 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Don't really need to worry about this. Chicago is a bottomless pit of capacity for more housing. The entire South and West Sides are severely depopulated (and continue to depopulate) plus we have vast tracts of post-industrial and CHA land that can be build upon. Not to mention that we have an enormous "greater downtown area" with capacity for 100s more highrises. ADUs have had a small impact in housing for other cities, but I think they will have a big splash in Chicago since we have such a strong tradition of alleys and coach houses to build upon.

This is an oversimplification but Chicago combines the legacy urbanity of NYC with the growth capacity of Houston. The key is making sure that we don't choke out all new growth with restrictive zoning the way LA has.
That's true and all but I think there's more at play. There are some areas of south side that have gentrified or are gentrifying (like south lakefront areas and SW side) but I think it's going to take a bit of work to get people to gentrify some of the other areas and let the big demand from other areas actually bleed more into those areas.

As long as that's the case, and the demand isn't there in many of those "dangerous right now or perceived dangerous" areas - the more that north side areas will basically continue to build out and prices will go up. The thing is that Chicago has one of the biggest increases of $100K+ and $200K+ household incomes. While a $500K condo is not "cheap" it is not usually an issue for a household making $250K. There are a lot more of those in the city and moving to the city than people even realize.

There's a reason why people/developers have been doing tons and tons of teardowns for years in these areas, with an increase in nearby north/northwest side communities and not necessarily going to cheaper land in various west and south side areas. Obviously some areas like Bronzeville, Bridgeport, and increasingly Canaryville has that exception but it's not happening as far as new development elsewhere for the most part. What is happening and flying under the radar in some areas like Auburn Gresham, Greater Grand Crossing, etc is that some cheap and not in great condition homes are being purchased for under $50K, undergoing gut rehabs for 6+ months, and being sold for $200K-$250K+. Actually decent interiors - not huge homes but adequate for most people and families. I'm curious what those will do to the neighborhoods and makeup overall. Many of these properties are actually being sold for above their list prices after the rehab.

Here's an example from Washington Heights sold 2 days ago. Sold for under $100K in 2020 - underwent some sort of renovation. Listed for $245K, and sold for $255K

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...8_M74906-61686

I'll bet this will hit the market in Roseland in 6 months from now completely renovated being sold for $200K. It sold for 55% above its list price (still under $50K) in under 40 days total:
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...8_M75373-18646
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Last edited by marothisu; Jan 25, 2021 at 5:05 PM.
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  #48145  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:26 PM
joeg1985 joeg1985 is offline
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^^

The amount of developable land has little to do with affordability. As long as developers continue to build only luxury housing the cost of living in the city does rise. As well as the ever increasing property taxes, which is my landlord's excuse for raising rent. We definitely need a more balanced approach to new housing being built in the city.

This parking garage being transformed into housing is fantastic. This section of Broadway (Belmont to Diversey) is one of the coolest sections of Lakeview IMO but it still feels a bit too car centric. This should help break that a bit.
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  #48146  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:38 PM
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The amount of developable land has little to do with affordability.
Sure it does. More developable land means land is cheaper. The price of new housing is almost entirely the price of land + cost of construction. Obviously not all land is created equal, some land is on Lake Shore Drive next to a park, and some land is a weed-infested toxic factory site on the South Side... but the city having a lot of land can only be a good thing when it comes to housing prices.

Quote:
As long as developers continue to build only luxury housing the cost of living in the city does rise.
Stop getting hung up on "luxury". It's a meaningless ad word that has little relationship to the prices that are actually charged.

You're not wrong about taxes, but the high taxes we all have to pay (directly or indirectly via rent) is a direct consequence of the poor choices the city and state have made over the last 30 years that are unrelated to the structure of the housing market.
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  #48147  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:44 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Sure it does. More developable land means land is cheaper. The price of new housing is almost entirely the price of land + cost of construction.
It matters relative to demand in certain ways, and that's the point. There's a reason why the same new construction home in Lincoln Park costs 50%+ more than in Irving Park, Avondale, etc even when there's not much developable land in those areas.

So the point is ultimately, that a lot of people ("luxury" or otherwise) are not willing to live in a lot of areas of Chicago due to various reasons (safety being a major one) but totally willing to live in other areas due to the same reasons (i.e. it being much safer, more walkable, etc). New construction wise, the parts of town on the north side, downtown, etc will continue to rise in COL because the demand is great for these areas, and there's still enough properties (current building or land) that are cheap enough for developers to buy up, knock down, and put something new on but usually less than 5 units in size. If you are a developer with the ability to invest $2M for some market rate housing, chances are that you aren't about to create some new housing in Englewood if you had the opportunity to do so in some north side neighborhood. At least until some other areas of town on the south side legitimately getting more demand - there's really only a few of those areas that have the ability right now to even take demand away from a lot of north side areas.

This will continue until the perceived safety threat in other areas (real or otherwise) goes down. Even areas like Bronzeville, which has ample new construction (and pretty nice looking interiors) in the last many years has that stigma still even though some areas on north/northwest side are similar in terms of safety statistically.
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  #48148  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:49 PM
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^ Chicago has proven that it is perfectly willing to expand the boundaries of "wealthy Chicago" to avoid exorbitant prices. That's how gentrification went from a little corner of Old Town in the 1940s to encompass the entire North Side and the Milwaukee Ave corridor, plus West and South Loop. I see no indication that the boundaries will stop expanding. The city is also opening up industrial corridors to residential like never before.
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  #48149  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:50 PM
BrinChi BrinChi is offline
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Affordable Housing

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Originally Posted by joeg1985 View Post
^^

The amount of developable land has little to do with affordability. As long as developers continue to build only luxury housing the cost of living in the city does rise. As well as the ever increasing property taxes, which is my landlord's excuse for raising rent. We definitely need a more balanced approach to new housing being built in the city.

This parking garage being transformed into housing is fantastic. This section of Broadway (Belmont to Diversey) is one of the coolest sections of Lakeview IMO but it still feels a bit too car centric. This should help break that a bit.

That's not quite accurate. Quality, market-rate affordable housing is the luxury housing of 10-20 years ago. Affordable (without subsidy) and brand new is an oxymoron unless you can use PVC piping everywhere, skip electrical conduits, use 2 X 4s and vinyl on the exterior, cheapest windows, etc... But I would much rather live in a quality unit from 20 years ago than a new house built cheaply.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/...luxury-housing

Unless your land value is increasing, housing is a depreciating asset.
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  #48150  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 5:51 PM
twister244 twister244 is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post

Here's an example from Washington Heights sold 2 days ago. Sold for under $100K in 2020 - underwent some sort of renovation. Listed for $245K, and sold for $255K

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...8_M74906-61686
Only $255k?.......... Jesus.

A house like that would easily go for $600-$700 in ANY neighborhood here in Denver. Btw, thanks for that breakdown on the zoning, etc. I agree, I think Chicago will probably be good in the long-term with respect to having enough stock to accommodate growth. Plus, the level of nimbyism isn't nearly as bad there as it is in some of your western cities (LA, San Fran, here in Denver).
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  #48151  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 6:35 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
^ Chicago has proven that it is perfectly willing to expand the boundaries of "wealthy Chicago" to avoid exorbitant prices. That's how gentrification went from a little corner of Old Town in the 1940s to encompass the entire North Side and the Milwaukee Ave corridor, plus West and South Loop. I see no indication that the boundaries will stop expanding. The city is also opening up industrial corridors to residential like never before.
Exactly, if Chicago grows, it probably won't be too long that much of the area between Hyde Park and South Loop is fully gentrified.
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  #48152  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 6:38 PM
Barrelfish Barrelfish is offline
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
^ Chicago has proven that it is perfectly willing to expand the boundaries of "wealthy Chicago" to avoid exorbitant prices. That's how gentrification went from a little corner of Old Town in the 1940s to encompass the entire North Side and the Milwaukee Ave corridor, plus West and South Loop. I see no indication that the boundaries will stop expanding. The city is also opening up industrial corridors to residential like never before.
100% agree with this. In the last decade, the West Loop, western part of River North, West Town, Blue line corridor out to Logan Square, etc. have all been brought into the "wealthy Chicago" fold. Almost all of those still have capacity to add more, and neighborhoods like Pilsen, Uptown, etc. seem like they are next up. Not to mention megadevelopments like Lincoln Yards, 78, etc.

One other perk of WFH I've realized is that it mitigates the downside of bad weather. Of course good weather is still better, and people aren't going to stay inside for all of December-February. But not having to trudge through snow to the bus stop 5 days a week is a plus.

All of that makes me bullish for the city, at least for this segment of the population. Urban lifestyle and amenities + weather that is great half the year and avoidable for the other half + relatively affordable housing costs is an attractive combination.
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  #48153  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 7:18 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
^ Chicago has proven that it is perfectly willing to expand the boundaries of "wealthy Chicago" to avoid exorbitant prices. That's how gentrification went from a little corner of Old Town in the 1940s to encompass the entire North Side and the Milwaukee Ave corridor, plus West and South Loop. I see no indication that the boundaries will stop expanding. The city is also opening up industrial corridors to residential like never before.
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Exactly, if Chicago grows, it probably won't be too long that much of the area between Hyde Park and South Loop is fully gentrified.
I think you partially misinterpreted me. I am not disagreeing with that. However, the amount of new housing being developed by tearing properties down on the north/northwest side FAR outweighs that of any development (vacant lot or teardown) in the entirety of the south side and west side.

The point I'm making, which is backed by actual data that I have from numerous years back, is that a lot of "wealthy Chicago" is more willing to tear down old homes in the north/northwest side than they are with going into south/west side. Not saying they are completely unwilling - Bronzeville, Bridgeport, and increasingly Woodlawn has a decent amount of new development for awhile. But even that absolutely pales in comparison to what has happened downtown and north of it - it's not even close. There's so many tear downs there it's not even funny. Developers are on average much more willing to buy a $500K SFH in Irving Park, tear it down and build a new 3 unit building with $400K/unit than going into even Bronzeville and building a nice house (or condos) on vacant land that's going for under $225K.

No reason for not snowballing - but it's slow.

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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
Only $255k?.......... Jesus.

A house like that would easily go for $600-$700 in ANY neighborhood here in Denver. Btw, thanks for that breakdown on the zoning, etc. I agree, I think Chicago will probably be good in the long-term with respect to having enough stock to accommodate growth. Plus, the level of nimbyism isn't nearly as bad there as it is in some of your western cities (LA, San Fran, here in Denver).
Chicago is a tale of 2+ cities, so understanding the neighborhoods in this context is pretty important. Washington Heights has fairly high crime so there's a reason it's only $255K. This same house in a very good north side neighborhood like Lincoln Park would be over $1M granted the square footage and what not. Even the difference between that and Bronzeville a little south of downtown is big.

This 4000+ sq ft home in Logan Square sold for just over $1.3M:
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7_M83248-49475

This similar-ish type of home in Bronzeville (between downtown and Hyde Park where U of Chicago is, near the lake) sold for $610K:
https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...3_M71198-25143

When people talk especially about "wealthy Chicago" they're talking about the first link above. And to an extent the 2nd link even. This house is not cheap but if you compared it to LA, NYC, SF, etc it would be considered "cheap." Just an FYI in NYC, the 1 bedroom 850 sq foot condos in the building next door to us start at $1.1M and so the $1.3M place above in my world is cheap. Show either of these to someone in NYC or SF and they would flip their shit even though it's over $1M. Also FYI when I talk about tear downs above, there's a lot of the $1.3M ones that have happened in various north side neighborhoods in the last decade. Someone comes in, buys a "cheap" old house, completely tears it down and builds something like this over it.
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Last edited by marothisu; Jan 25, 2021 at 7:47 PM.
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  #48154  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2021, 10:42 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Zoning app is up to build a new 7 story, 109 foot tall building with ground floor retail and office use for the SE corner of Green & Lake. Currently a vacant lot next to BLVD restaurant.

https://www.google.com/maps/@41.8856...7i16384!8i8192
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  #48155  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2021, 4:12 AM
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Glad this is going to stay as a SFH instead of some gaudy commercial space: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...s-record-price
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  #48156  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2021, 4:28 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Glad this is going to stay as a SFH instead of some gaudy commercial space: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...s-record-price
It says thr first floor (or part) was a gallery....so, I guess its actually going to fully turn back into SFH..
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  #48157  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2021, 4:40 AM
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It says thr first floor (or part) was a gallery....so, I guess its actually going to fully turn back into SFH..
walked past this mansion many times and never noticed any special events!
I guess it must have been this https://www.keithhousechicago.com/ ?


Here is the listing for the home: https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/19.../home/14083933
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  #48158  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2021, 9:30 PM
west-town-brad west-town-brad is offline
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I guess vacant lots can now be "landmarked" as part of a historic district.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...-historic-home

a new tool to stop gentrification?
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  #48159  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2021, 10:48 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by west-town-brad View Post
I guess vacant lots can now be "landmarked" as part of a historic district.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/resi...-historic-home

a new tool to stop gentrification?
Is the idea that they have to following the design standards or they just can't build on it? I guess it depends on which vacant lots fall in there, which districts, etc. If it's all about design then there's nothing stopping someone on a purely residential street from designing something in those standards. I guess it depends on how strict the zoning is.
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  #48160  
Old Posted Jan 27, 2021, 11:00 PM
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I don't remember if this was talked about but there's a zoning app up to tear down the 1 story commercial strip mall at 5214-24 N Lincoln (& Farragut) just north of Foster and build a new 5 story, 60 foot tall building with 42 total residential units (2 live/work units), with 24 parking spaces, 42 spots for bicycles, and ground floor retail/commercial.

Semi currently:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/52...!4d-87.6926519
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