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  #25321  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:17 PM
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Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
I hope they let people in Ontario get the AZ second shot if they have already had the first. I want to be totally vaccinated as soon as possible.
Agreed. MB appears to be heading down the path of holding back on AZ to save it for second shots (is there no difference between what they give you the second time as compared to the first)?

As I understand it, the optimal time for the second dose is something like 3-4 months out? If so that is annoying because that would mean late August until I'm fully vaccinated. But I want that second dose of AZ... I am not keen on the idea of mixing vaccines like I'm at a goddamn cocktail bar.
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  #25322  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:23 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
Agreed. MB appears to be heading down the path of holding back on AZ to save it for second shots (is there no difference between what they give you the second time as compared to the first)?

As I understand it, the optimal time for the second dose is something like 3-4 months out? If so that is annoying because that would mean late August until I'm fully vaccinated. But I want that second dose of AZ... I am not keen on the idea of mixing vaccines like I'm at a goddamn cocktail bar.
AZ is a very effective vaccine. I'd personally have no problem taking it if it were offered to me. And I agree , if you had your first shot of AZ then stick with that for your second.
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  #25323  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:38 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I am not sure if this epidemiologist commented about that specifically. My take on this hypothesis is that it was sort of possible but unlikely months ago but is looking less and less likely. I don't think of it in terms of what could happen (non-zero probability) but in terms of relative risk (does it go down by 0%? 10%? 90%?).

First off we know that the risk of testing positive goes down if you are vaccinated, which is not strictly proof of anything (maybe these asymptomatic people don't get tested as much because they don't experience problems) but evidence. I think if fully-vaccinated people were spreading a lot that probably would show up as a contact tracing signal.

Another person to listen to is Michael Mina who will talk about cycle threshold values in PCR testing. He asserts pretty explicitly that some people who test positive aren't contagious (e.g. recovered people with high Ct). That's a bit different from the question of contagiousness in general, but basically PCR positive and contagious may be two different things.

There's some other data out there like Israeli studies on the impact on positivity in children as the adults get vaccinated. As the adults are vaccinated the unvaccinated kids are less likely to test positive too. So it's probably not the case that the symptoms are masked while transmission continues as normal.

On an intuitive speculative level it also kind of makes sense that a person with fewer symptoms might be less contagious since some of the symptoms like coughing and sneezing are themselves ways to spread the virus.

(I'm not trying to make any definitive claims here and I claim 0 expertise; mostly pointing to other sources people can search for if interested.)
Well said. Thanks for the thoughtful response.

I am of the mindset that if enough people are vaccinated that this will mostly go away, and share many of your opinions posted above. However, as diseases such as measles have shown us, they still exist in society (possible due to the popularity of intercontinental travel) and will occasionally have an outbreak among the anti-vaxxer communities, or those people who did not get vaccinated for some other reason.

I am concerned for the people who have vaccination hesitancy brought on because they are worried about the safety (since its development and deployment happened much more quickly than ever before) of the vaccine for potential long-term consequences. Hopefully most of those people will come around and assess their personal risks more clearly (actual risk of covid is much more pressing than possible but unproven worries about future issues).

As far as the anti-vaxxers go, they are all on their own - my only real concern is that if there are enough of them they could help in the creation of more 'variants' that our current vaccines may not provide as much protection against. But that's just an unfounded worry on my part and probably won't come to fruition.
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  #25324  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:46 PM
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Yeah, I think SARS-CoV-2 will be an endemic disease and there will be old folks' homes in random places that see outbreaks of it in 2023. But I don't believe it will have the same potential in countries like Canada to kill or put people in the hospital in large numbers, and each "wave" will be milder due to some mix of natural exposure or vaccination. I think any anti-vax person who is relying on cases going to 0 around the planet due to herd immunity, and feels they can wait it out without being vaccinated, is being unrealistic, although their individual risk may not be that high based on factors like age.

My best guess is we'll have another wave in the fall too but it will cause only a very low rate of serious problems in people who have been vaccinated. Eventually maybe most people in the world, even if not vaccinated, will have been exposed before (especially in childhood), and SARS-CoV-2 will effectively be like a bunch of other coronaviruses thought of as common colds. I wonder if some other viruses we think of as cold viruses, or influenza strains, could have been as bad or worse if they had been suddenly introduced into the population during an era of widespread air travel when an outbreak can spread from Wuhan to New York in about a day.
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  #25325  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:53 PM
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Recently-published article - "There is no ‘Covid heart’":

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/...o-covid-heart/

This responds to the earlier mostly small N studies that did selective imaging of hearts of people post-covid, usually with no controls, with the media wildly extrapolating from there.
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  #25326  
Old Posted Yesterday, 5:19 PM
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86 new cases in Nova Scotia - looks to be the first time since April 30 that there's been fewer than 100 cases.
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  #25327  
Old Posted Yesterday, 5:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
AZ is a very effective vaccine. I'd personally have no problem taking it if it were offered to me. And I agree , if you had your first shot of AZ then stick with that for your second.
Agreed. I'd be very happy to take AZ, although I'm probably going to get somethign else next month. I mean, I don't mind what of the 3 I get...but AZ is a great vaccine in general and shouldn't be dismissed.
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  #25328  
Old Posted Yesterday, 5:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manny_santos View Post
86 new cases in Nova Scotia - looks to be the first time since April 30 that there's been fewer than 100 cases.
The "curve" of cases in NS is somewhat distorted by the testing backlog plus there's whatever lag exists in doing contact tracing, incubation, transmission within household, etc. I would guess that there were a lot more infected people around early May than what was detected (thousands) and that new infections from community transmission have fallen by much more than what the numbers indicate.

NS did just over 10,000 tests to get those 86 positive cases. In BC the positivity rate is around 7%.
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  #25329  
Old Posted Yesterday, 7:09 PM
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Just got my shot! Took a 1+ hour wait in line, but got my Moderna shot.
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  #25330  
Old Posted Yesterday, 7:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
Agreed. MB appears to be heading down the path of holding back on AZ to save it for second shots (is there no difference between what they give you the second time as compared to the first)?

As I understand it, the optimal time for the second dose is something like 3-4 months out? If so that is annoying because that would mean late August until I'm fully vaccinated. But I want that second dose of AZ... I am not keen on the idea of mixing vaccines like I'm at a goddamn cocktail bar.
I’m with you. I got my AZ first shot 5 weeks ago. I’d just as soon get a 2nd AZ in the next 2-3 weeks so I’m fully vaxxed and the supply Canada is gets used. If we’re not going to make a serious effort at using it we should return it to Covax and let other countries use it.
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  #25331  
Old Posted Yesterday, 7:55 PM
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Quebec reports 760 new cases with 8 deaths

509 in hospital (-21)
120 in ICU (-3)

+ 102 752 doses of vaccine administered
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  #25332  
Old Posted Yesterday, 7:55 PM
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Manitoba slowly but surely getting there...

Quote:
Manitoba reached a major milestone in the largest immunization campaign in the province’s history today, as 50 per cent of people aged 18 and older have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, Health and Seniors Care Minister Heather Stefanson announced today.
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  #25333  
Old Posted Yesterday, 9:44 PM
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Alberta reporting 1,195 new cases, the 8th straight day of declining cases. Also the lowest number of new cases in a day since April 12. A 24% reduction compared to a week ago.

Active Cases: 22,993 (-880 from yesterday)
Hospitalizations: 686 (-27 from yesterday)
ICU: 178 (+1 from yesterday)

Positivity rate also down to 9.2%

Numbers are still quite high but they are trending in the right direction. Hoping were back below 1000 in the coming days.

There were 3 new deaths.

Alberta vaccine update:

2,144,280 does administered to date, with 40.6% of total population with one dose and 7.3% of total population fully immunized. (Adults 16+ should have passed 50% today).
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  #25334  
Old Posted Yesterday, 10:04 PM
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Saskatchewan delivered an incredible 18,568 vaccine doses yesterday! Our previous record was under 14k.
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  #25335  
Old Posted Today, 1:02 AM
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Just got Pfizer at an evening clinic. Very impressed with the setup. Very quick and efficient.
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  #25336  
Old Posted Today, 1:04 AM
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Several rallies related to the Israel-Gaza fighting were held in several cities today, on both sides of the issue, with all of them violating covid restrictions. In Halifax a bunch of people were ticketed but it sounds like there were no consequences in any of the other cities.
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  #25337  
Old Posted Today, 3:57 AM
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32 new cases in Timmins today. Ouch. I just read that our hospitalizations went from 5 to 10 from yesterday to today just in the city. There is no weekend report but my city must be close to 200 active cases.
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