Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Canada's housing crisis in a nutshell. Doesn't matter how much or how fast we build when the demand is nearly infinite.

Yep. I keep pointing out that the current levels of what we call a “crisis” now are totally not anywhere near a crisis, when you look at what’s coming.

We keep importing crazy amounts of new suckers, way beyond our realistic ability to build (considering plenty of non-flexible limiting factors like land, labor, materials, capital), so the so-called “crisis” right now is going to keep worsening unless we dial down the Ponzi Scheme substantially.

(And even the probable next PM doesn’t seem to want to do that.)

In summary:
Right now Canadian rents are very cheap, compared to what’s coming;
Right now there’s barely any homelessness, compared to what’s coming.

Unless we change course, somehow.

[p_xavier]

Originally Posted by lio45

Yep. I keep pointing out that the current levels of what we call a “crisis” now are totally not anywhere near a crisis, when you look at what’s coming.

We keep importing crazy amounts of new suckers, way beyond our realistic ability to build (considering plenty of non-flexible limiting factors like land, labor, materials, capital), so the so-called “crisis” right now is going to keep worsening unless we dial down the Ponzi Scheme substantially.

(And even the probable next PM doesn’t seem to want to do that.)

In summary:
Right now Canadian rents are very cheap, compared to what’s coming;
Right now there’s barely any homelessness, compared to what’s coming.

Unless we change course, somehow.

Unstable countries bring in revolutions... Scary times ahead.

[harls]

78% average increase in property values in Gatineau.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...ation-gatineau

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by harls

78% average increase in property values in Gatineau.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...ation-gatineau

Housing in Winnipeg or parts of Manitoba looking better by the year?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by harls

78% average increase in property values in Gatineau.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle...ation-gatineau

How many tens of thousands as Trudeau added to the civil servants roll?

[MonkeyRonin]

Not really sure what the relevance of Japan's immigration system is anyway, when no one has advocated for copying it here nor is there any likelihood of that ever being taken as an acceptable policy alternative. Their near-zero immigration system is the polar opposite of Canada's near-unlimited one: two extremes of ideologically-driven policy at either end of the spectrum; both of which carrying major negative externalities.

Most of our peer nations take a much more middle-ground approach, with better results than either.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Not really sure what the relevance of Japan's immigration system is anyway, when no one has advocated for copying it here nor is there any likelihood of that ever being taken as an acceptable policy alternative. Their near-zero immigration system is the polar opposite of Canada's near-unlimited one: two extremes of ideologically-driven policy at either end of the spectrum; both of which carrying major negative externalities.

Most of our peer nations take a much more middle-ground approach, with better results than either.

Nearly every western country has been increasing immigration to deal with the same problem as Canada ie labour shortages, the Anglosphere especially. Canada has a lower birth rate than most of it peers and the demand for labour has been greater as well.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Nite

Nearly every western country has been increasing immigration to deal with the same problem as Canada ie labour shortages, the Anglosphere especially. Canada has a lower birth rate than most of it peers and the demand for labour has been greater as well.

Are Canadians anatomically and physiologically inferior to the Australians and Americans? Australia grew by 500k in the last year, with natural growth accounting for about 20% of that growth. We grew by 1.2 million, with natural growth accounting for about 3% of that growth. In raw unadjusted numbers, their natural growth is about 3 to 4 times higher than ours (108,000 vs 28,000). Perhaps there's more to it than biology and policy may play a role. Certainly doesn't help that the average young person in this country can't afford a place to raise a family.

I'm not sure how anyone can look at the trends and think any of this bodes well for us. 10 years ago we were ahead of the Americans and Australians when it came to economic prosperity. Now they've left us in the dust, but in typical Canadian fashion we have to keep patting ourselves on the back so we justify it by pointing to the old men of Europe and Asia.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by theman23

I'm not sure how anyone can look at the trends and think any of this bodes well for us.

Depends who exactly is that “us”. Obviously it does bode extremely well for the “Landed Gentry”. If we made a slight change to our system so that only property owners are considered full citizens (like in the good old days) then the Ponzi Scheme would officially be good for everyone (i.e. everyone who matters)

[theman23]

Originally Posted by lio45

Depends who exactly is that “us”. Obviously it does bode extremely well for the “Landed Gentry”. If we made a slight change to our system so that only property owners are considered full citizens (like in the good old days) then the Ponzi Scheme would officially be good for everyone (i.e. everyone who matters)

I mean us as a society now and in the future. Obviously the”fuck you I got mine” generation has benefited tremendously and some of them will fight tooth and nail to save their retirement plan, but these people have maybe 10 to 40 quality years of life expectancy remaining (and that latter number is only that large because I’m including older millennials…the vast majority are on the lower end of the spectrum). We’re sacrificing the future of this country to save a Ponzi retirement scheme for a demographic (the boomers and Gen X) that isn’t going to be around too long.

[someone123]

Obviously the main country to compare Canada to is the USA. We did well compared to them at times but lately have been falling behind while housing has become catastrophically less affordable, and today our material standard of living is on average much lower.

[Doady]

If only we had a PM with the balls to stop all immigration, then Toronto could build a subway system on par with Tokyo's.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Doady

If only we had a PM with the balls to stop all immigration, then Toronto could build a subway system on par with Tokyo's.

Said absolutely no one ever. Even if we were to go back to 2015 levels we would be bringing in more immigrants than most countries.

[thewave46]

Predictably, this thread - being a product of the internet - has taken up the extreme positions with absolutely no nuance.

Do I think Japan and other highly developed East Asian economies have every facet figured out, and we should emulate them exactly? Absolutely not. They’ve their flaws and plenty visible ones at that. However, we should not be blind to their successes, nor ignore their lessons.

Indeed, the trajectory of late-era Canada/NZ/Australia and developed East Asian countries has taken nearly opposite tracks; an examination of the upsides and downsides of each and what consequences of those choices are is merited.

The former have effectively turned into low value-add resource-dependent colonies with extreme housing costs due to high growth rates fuelled by immigration. Their advantage in high immigration has reduced the liability of promises made to the older generation. However, they are at the mercy of global resource prices, and the high housing costs may prove to stoke populist sentiment among the young disenchanted locals. This is not an ideal situation for political stability.

The latter are value-add powerhouses, but their demographic structure and resistance to change or immigration may prove to be their undoing in another sense. It will be ever more difficult for them to retain their advantages under the strains their societies face. Political stagnation is the greater concern here.

There is actually a middle way in this situation for Canada, from both from an economic development point-of-view and immigration policy point-of-view, and it was one we seemingly did better a couple of decades ago.

[Doady]

Originally Posted by theman23

Said absolutely no one ever. Even if we were to go back to 2015 levels we would be bringing in more immigrants than most countries.

No one said that Toronto could build a subway system on par with Tokyo's? Wow, thanks for educating me, TheMan23. I would not have known that if you hadn't told me.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Doady

No one said that Toronto could build a subway system on par with Tokyo's? Wow, thanks for educating me, TheMan23. I would not have known that if you hadn't told me.

No one ever said we should stop immigration. Sarcasm is supposed to have a point. I’m not sure what yours was if that wasn’t it, and I’m probably not alone.

[Truenorth00]

It's more than just housing. I was explaining my childcare difficulties to a friend in Eastern Europe. His response? "Sounds like having a kid in Canada is like having a Ferrari. And very few people have more than one Ferrari."

Canada. The country that won't build daycares with elementary schools. And the only country in the developed world without a universal school lunch program. Even those supposedly ultra-capitalist Americans feed their kids (even if a lot of the food is crap). A program first started at the behest of the Pentagon who considered childhood malnutrition a threat to national security. Compare this from a Canadian who moved to Japan:

• Video Link

[MolsonExport]

Japan does a much better job taking care of its younger people, whereas Canada does a much better job taking care of its older people. Japan relied on a collectivistic culture mindset, i.e., that children would always look after their elderly relatives, which worked great until it didn't.
I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Japan does a much better job taking care of its younger people, whereas Canada does a much better job taking care of its older people. Japan relied on a collectivistic culture mindset, i.e., that children would always look after their elderly relatives, which worked great until it didn't.
I agree that some re-balancing is necessary. On the other hand, Japan's birthrate is even lower than Canada's (but wow, our rate has dropped quickly towards theirs).
Japan 1.34 births/female
Canada 1.40 births/female

I think how a society cares for its most vulnerable citizens says a lot about their values. We don't take care of our kids. And really we're setting up to fail our seniors too.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think how a society cares for its most vulnerable citizens says a lot about their values. We don't take care of our kids. And really we're setting up to fail our seniors too.

I agree fully.