2010-2020 Pop Change Dot Map

[galleyfox]

Some interesting visuals from Twitter

Red-Growth
Blue-Loss


Philadelphia


Chicago


NYC


LA


Seattle


DC


Boston


Miami


Twitter - @Bread_Fixer

[mhays]

Wish we had an upvote button! Thanks for posting.

[kingkirbythe....]

Rikers Island! That's a big blue dot.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by kingkirbythe....

Rikers Island! That's a big blue dot.

The huge blue dot by the Chicago label is the Cook County Jail. Perhaps the Census changed where prisoners are counted?

[JiminyCricket II]

What's the issue with northwest Manhattan? Now that I think about it I've somehow never been to that area of NYC so I don't know what the problem would be where everyone seems to be moving out of there.

[dave8721]

Looks like a pretty consistent theme of population loss in inner-ring non-core areas across most cities.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by JiminyCricket II

What's the issue with northwest Manhattan? Now that I think about it I've somehow never been to that area of NYC so I don't know what the problem would be where everyone seems to be moving out of there.

That's Washington Heights/Inwood. It's a dense immigrant neighborhood that is rapidly gentrifying, so the family sizes are dropping as the neighborhood undergoes demographic change.

There was just a giant rezoning of the area, allowing new residential towers, so the population will almost certainly see an increase in the 2030 Census.

If you saw the movie In the Heights, you get the picture. Actually that was one of the underlying movie themes. Working class immigrants leaving because of gentrification.

[iamrobk]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

The huge blue dot by the Chicago label is the Cook County Jail. Perhaps the Census changed where prisoners are counted?

Similar thing with the Philly map - the big blue dot next to State Road is where the prisons are. I think it's just due to decreased jail populations as opposed to changing where inmates are counted.

Originally Posted by dave8721

Looks like a pretty consistent theme of population loss in inner-ring non-core areas across most cities.

Yeah, this was my main takeaway from this. Or at the very least, if not population loss, those areas are growing noticeably slower. Was surprising to see in LA and Miami in particular.

[PhilliesPhan]

Philly's high-growth areas don't surprise me at all. A decade ago, projects within certain areas of what is now considered Greater Center City (Girard to Tasker, river to river) would have been considered risky. Now, aside from a few PHA-owned blocks, everything within Greater CC is fair game. Entire neighborhoods--such as Point Breeze and Francisville--have been rebuilt, and neighborhoods farther outside of Greater CC are starting to see investment. By the end of this decade, I wouldn't be surprised if everything below Lehigh Avenue is growing. In West Philly, everything east of 56th Street will surely be growing, especially if Penn extends the boundaries of its homeownership program again.

The only growing areas that surprise me, however, are those growing to the northeast of Cottman Avenue in the Northeast. I expected neighborhoods in the Far Northeast to lose population after the PPD changed its residency requirement a few years ago (many police officers prefer the cookie-cutter suburban homes of the Far Northeast, which are close to Bucks County), but I guess it didn't have has much of an effect as I thought it would.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

That's Washington Heights/Inwood. It's a dense immigrant neighborhood that is rapidly gentrifying, so the family sizes are dropping as the neighborhood undergoes demographic change.

Yep, there are two fairly different types of neighborhood population decrease.

Using Chicago as an example:

1. Englewood - decrease in housing units and population as people are deciding to leave the neighborhood with very few others moving in to replace them. A textbook example of the vicious cycle of urban abandonment.

2. Avondale - an increase in the number of housing units as the neighborhood gentrifies, yet overall population still decreases because the gentrifier new-comers have considerably smaller average household sizes than the immigrant families they are replacing.


The blue dots on these maps do not differentiate between the two above phenomenons.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Looks like a pretty consistent theme of population loss in inner-ring non-core areas across most cities.

I think we are seeing the future urban form here, doughnuts.

Wealthy exurbs, wealthy core, poor inner ring suburbs.

[mrnyc]

teens and young adults are already removed from rikers, thats probably the biggest drop. and lately women and transgender were sent upstate due to staffing troubles (but also per long term plans to eventually close rikers, they wont be coming back). and last, but not least, there is the no bail thing, the governor's recent less is more release act and a general decline in population for the men. so a big loss dot for rikers is funny to see, but not unexpected. its probably even more pronounced at this moment.

[hipster duck]

The LA pattern was unexpected for me. I'm guessing the minor losses in places like Echo Park, Silver Lake and Los Feliz were due to continued gentrification of dense areas with formerly larger household sizes?

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Crawford

That's Washington Heights/Inwood. It's a dense immigrant neighborhood that is rapidly gentrifying, so the family sizes are dropping as the neighborhood undergoes demographic change.

There was just a giant rezoning of the area, allowing new residential towers, so the population will almost certainly see an increase in the 2030 Census.

If you saw the movie In the Heights, you get the picture. Actually that was one of the underlying movie themes. Working class immigrants leaving because of gentrification.

yep. I grew up in Washington Heights, and still have connections to the neighborhood and the building I grew up in. As a kid, in the mid 90's, our Dominican neighbors had 6 kids living in a 2 bedroom apartment. That's 8 people living in like 900 sq ft. I know today that same unit has one old lady living in the unit, she's been there like 15 years. My parents moved to Staten Island, but our apartment is now occupied by 2 upwardly mobile hipsters. I wouldn't be surprised if the building I grew up in has about half the number of people in it today vs. 25 years ago. With that said, the neighborhood has certainly cleaned up quite a bit and is a much better place to live today vs. 25 years ago.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

The LA pattern was unexpected for me. I'm guessing the minor losses in places like Echo Park, Silver Lake and Los Feliz were due to continued gentrification of dense areas with formerly larger household sizes?

i would imagine so, just like wash hts in upper manhattan. the combo of attractive big apts, smaller family sizes and gentrification.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by iamrobk

Similar thing with the Philly map - the big blue dot next to State Road is where the prisons are. I think it's just due to decreased jail populations as opposed to changing where inmates are counted.



Yeah, this was my main takeaway from this. Or at the very least, if not population loss, those areas are growing noticeably slower. Was surprising to see in LA and Miami in particular.

I can speak to the Miami pattern. It breaks down very clearly along how wealthy the neighborhood is. The working class areas are all blue. It seems from what I have seen in many of these neighborhoods, the kids have all moved out and what is left is the mostly older empty nest parents.

South Beach is the exception. That is shrinking due to residents being priced out by AirBnB and short term rentals.

[mhays]

This is interesting for Seattle.

The one reduction appears to be Greek Row at the UW.

The mixed-use districts boomed, including on the Eastside.

The areas with all or nearly all houses just filled a few gaps and might have more adult kids living at home or roommates due to higher prices.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan

The only growing areas that surprise me, however, are those growing to the northeast of Cottman Avenue in the Northeast. I expected neighborhoods in the Far Northeast to lose population after the PPD changed its residency requirement a few years ago (many police officers prefer the cookie-cutter suburban homes of the Far Northeast, which are close to Bucks County), but I guess it didn't have has much of an effect as I thought it would.

I would presume this is an increase in household size? That area is pretty rapidly shifting from working-class/lower-middle class white to a pretty even mixture of black/Latino/Asian.

[tdawg]

Very cool. I'd be interested in seeing central Atlanta, particularly Midtown.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by dave8721

I can speak to the Miami pattern. It breaks down very clearly along how wealthy the neighborhood is. The working class areas are all blue. It seems from what I have seen in many of these neighborhoods, the kids have all moved out and what is left is the mostly older empty nest parents.

South Beach is the exception. That is shrinking due to residents being priced out by AirBnB and short term rentals.

i wondered about residential and airbnb in a place like south beach. could there be more info somewhere? like how many there actually are in an area? seems like airbnb is kind of secretive about it -- as much as they can be.