Transit Fantasies

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

-snip-

There’s a RapidBus for the IWMB in the 10-Year Vision, plus studies for rail replacements. Neither is true for the Lions Gate. If TransLink likes Second Narrows better, and the mayors like Second Narrows better, then that’s what’ll happen.

By that logic, we should also rule out anybody coming in from Horseshoe Bay, meaning Phibbs still wins. If you want to talk about network factors, you have to look at the overall network, and in that regard, Second Narrows helps more people in the long run.

Because it’s the technology (BRT, LRT, RRT) and the grade (underground, elevated, surface) that changes from election to election; the route itself and all its alternatives were decided a very long time ago. Likewise, TransLink’s waffling between Gold and Purple – or at least pretending to – but they made up their mind in the Nineties, so it’s going to be one of those two and not a brand new separate Hastings line.

My point is that yours isn't true. Park Royal/Norgate SkyTrain only benefits a few people crossing First Narrows, but Phibbs SkyTrain benefits everybody crossing Second Narrows.

Originally Posted by chowhou

To be fair, I believe in general the North Shore municipal governments don't really care where it goes, as long as it goes somewhere.

Mike Little was on the campaign trail with Sim last year promoting the gold alignment too.

True. That's still a Phibbs extension though.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by fredinno

...Blue Bus also didn't want B-Line to go to Dundrave, as it would lower the amount of work they got. That was the ultimate killer, even when the political winds changed in West Van to allow B-Line to Dundrave.

Sorry, but where are you getting this "ultimate killer" from? The decision to terminate the R2 at Park Royal was made three years prior to Mayor Booth's 2022 campaign statement about revisiting the Dundarave connection and the union's subsequent protest.

Originally Posted by fredinno

We'll see if DNV residents appreciate having their parking lanes removed for bus lanes when they build a B-Line to Lynn Valley.
Something tells me they won't.

Some may well complain, but the District has shown a tendency to prioritize alternatives to personal vehicles in recent years. For example, removing a lane on Highland Boulevard for a bike lane, rejigging 29th Street for bike lanes, and so on.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Exactly this.

On the other hand, the DNV doesn't understand or care about transit that much, so I'll trust Translink and the Metro Vancouver decision making process over what big Mayor Little has to say. Unfortunately, transit improvements for a lot of North Vancouverites are a means to a very particular end and that end is "If we have better transit, maybe all these other asshole drivers will get off the roads so I can drive more, but like hell I'm ever getting on a bus".

As far as my limited engineering brain can tell, the purple alignment is the most effective and best bang-for-the-buck alignment and it definitely feels to me like what we'll see in the future.

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Some may well complain, but the District has shown a tendency to prioritize alternatives to personal vehicles in recent years. For example, removing a lane on Highland Boulevard for a bike lane, rejigging 29th Street for bike lanes, and so on.

Lynn Valley Road also has a total of like four on street parking spots.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

There’s a RapidBus for the IWMB in the 10-Year Vision, plus studies for rail replacements. Neither is true for the Lions Gate. If TransLink likes Second Narrows better, and the mayors like Second Narrows better, then that’s what’ll happen.

By that logic, we should also rule out anybody coming in from Horseshoe Bay, meaning Phibbs still wins. If you want to talk about network factors, you have to look at the overall network, and in that regard, Second Narrows helps more people in the long run.

Because it’s the technology (BRT, LRT, RRT) and the grade (underground, elevated, surface) that changes from election to election; the route itself and all its alternatives were decided a very long time ago. Likewise, TransLink’s waffling between Gold and Purple – or at least pretending to – but it’s going to be one of those two and not a brand new separate Hastings line.

There’s a RapidBus for the IWMB in the 10-Year Vision, plus studies for rail replacements. Neither is true for the Lions Gate

Are you sure?

Looks like Rapidbus on 1st Narrows to me.

By that logic, we should also rule out anybody coming in from Horseshoe Bay, meaning Phibbs still wins. If you want to talk about network factors, you have to look at the overall network, and in that regard, Second Narrows helps more people in the long run.

Well, you also have to include cost/benefit and network length.
One of the big problems with the Phase 2 studies is a lack of a good cost estimate, which allows mayors to promote it without considering the price tag.

This Benefits Assessment analyzes impact categories in a typical Economic Impact Assessment through monetized,
quantitative and qualitative analysis. This assessment analyzes solely project benefits, as opposed to a traditional
Benefit-Cost Analysis that compares project benefits to project costs, as sufficient study has not yet been conducted
to select a preferred alignment or technology and determine associated costs. As such, a study of the benefits is
appropriate to establish the potential opportunities in investing in a project like BIRT.

That's a MASSIVE omission.

Once you account for the price tag, you have to start considering when exactly a NS Skytrain is built, and if/what resources it takes from everyone else.

Because, let's be honest, if we didn't have to consider costs, we'd have both Norgate and Phibbs connections.


The point is, if you're going to make a huge deal because I assumed a T connection to Phibbs instead of a Y-connection (the former would have saved time to Park Royal), you should also make a huge deal of LRT being on the middle of the road vs SkyTrain in the CP rail trench.


The corridor is the same in both cases. But the alignment and track isn't.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Sorry, but where are you getting this "ultimate killer" from? The decision to terminate the R2 at Park Royal was made three years prior to Mayor Booth's 2022 campaign statement about revisiting the Dundarave connection and the union's subsequent protest.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/west...ion-opposition

The union representing West Vancouver Blue Bus drivers is voicing its strong opposition against any suggestion of further extending TransLink’s R2 RapidBus service west of the existing terminus of Park Royal to reach Dundarave.

This is in reaction to West Vancouver mayor Mary-Ann Booth’s indication last week during her re-election campaign launch, when she suggested that she would renew the effort to bring rapid transit to West Vancouver.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by fredinno

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/west...e=pocket_saves

You're self reporting right now.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by fredinno

-snip-

Pretty sure. In fairness, Lions Gate’s in the vision, but it’s been bumped down the list (5-10 years) behind Metrotown-Park Royal (0-5 years), and doesn't get three bullet points:

Metrotown to Park Royal (BRT + study alternatives)
In recognition of the acute congestion challenges facing the North Shore, the region commits to delivering a traffic-separated rapid transit connection between Park Royal and Metrotown as soon as possible:
• Recognizing that this is a highly complex and constrained corridor, we will immediately begin the required planning work to advance a BRT option so that construction of rapid transit can begin within years 0-5.
• In parallel, we will advance business case development to confirm whether the ultimate technology will be Bus Rapid Transit, Light Rail Transit, or SkyTrain (or a combination), and to confirm the associated alignment, terminus locations, and degree of grade separation including options for a dedicated transit crossing of Burrard Inlet.
• In the meantime, the region commits to increased bus service and transit priority measures, as feasible, between Park Royal and Metrotown to improve bus travel times, operating costs, and grow ridership in advance of more permanent rapid transit investment.

Getting over/under Burrard Inlet will be the super expensive part; after that, it’s just a combination of several “regular”-cost SkyTrain lines. Purple is slightly pricier than 3A Norgate in that regard but offers more benefits to more people and neighbourhoods, and it definitely has a better C/B ratio than going the long way under the ocean with 2A Park Royal.

If you want to split hairs, go ahead, but the fact remains that the existing options are the ones TransLink’s locked into (save for 1A, which has already been eliminated).

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by chowhou

You're self reporting right now.

???
What am I doing wrong? The Pocket link?

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Pretty sure. In fairness, Lions Gate’s in the vision, but it’s been bumped down the list (5-10 years) behind Metrotown-Park Royal (0-5 years), and doesn't get three bullet points:


Getting over/under Burrard Inlet will be the super expensive part; after that, it’s just a combination of several “regular”-cost SkyTrain lines. Purple is slightly pricier than 3A Norgate in that regard but offers more benefits to more people and neighbourhoods, and it definitely has a better C/B ratio than going the long way under the ocean with 2A Park Royal.

If you want to split hairs, go ahead, but the fact remains that the existing options are the ones TransLink’s locked into (save for 1A, which has already been eliminated).

Purple going Metrotown-Lonsdale is 2x the length of Downtown- Norgate-Lonsdale.

Depends on what you mean by 'regular'. 'Regular' can still be pretty expensive.

If Burnaby demand Purple is all underground, costs shoot way up.
Eg. Skytrain to UBC from Arbutus will cost up to $3.8B ($475M/km).

It's a comparable length from 2nd Narrows to Metrotown, so that's a pretty huge investment, compared to the of the $0.25M/km of Langley Extension.

That's a delta of about 2x, and thus, can massively shift the cost-benefit ratio away or towards any extension option.

But cost-benefit is still anybody's guess.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Twice the route also means twice the coverage, so it evens out; no matter how anybody crunches the numbers, the whole project will indeed be $3-5 billion at the least for all four proposed routes.

Also worth noting how Second Narrows has more residential and commercial, but Norgate cuts across Stanley Park and the sulphur pits, reducing its "pros" column. I don't think that many people visit the Rose Garden or Aquarium.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by fredinno

???
What am I doing wrong? The Pocket link?

As tvisforme stated and your article confirms, the R2 was introduced and decapitated by West Vancouver back in 2019-2020, and the Blue Bus opposition to extending it to the original plans was in 2022, as your article confirms.

Basically, NIMBYs NIMBYing was the reason, not anything to do with Blue Bus.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Twice the route also means twice the coverage, so it evens out; no matter how anybody crunches the numbers, the whole project will indeed be $4-5 billion at the least.

Also worth noting how Second Narrows covers more residential and commercial, but a major part of Norgate cuts through Stanley Park and the sulphur pits, reducing its "pros" column.

I would point out as final points that Norgate also covers Coal Harbour and the West End, which counteracts that fact (putting the entire West End <15 min walk is a huge plus.)
We could see the West End become the next Yaletown along with Broadway (maybe).
Stanley Park doesn't matter, since the line will be deep underground by then.

There's also not really much of note (just random suburbs) on Purple between 2nd Narrows and Brentwood.

BCIT between Brentwood and Metrotown is huge, though.

[Migrant_Coconut]

If there's no station at Stanley Park, that's a double whammy for Norgate; the West End's already fairly transit-accessible even without SkyTrain, while Coal Harbour likes the isolation. And I wouldn't discount Burnaby Heights.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by fredinno

There's also not really much of note (just random suburbs) on Purple between 2nd Narrows and Brentwood.

Just this little relatively unknown street called Hastings I think? and this weird attempt at an amusement park with dog shows sometimes. /s

Don't get out of Langley much do ya?

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by mcj

Just this little relatively unknown street called Hastings I think? and this weird attempt at an amusement park with dog shows sometimes. /s

Don't get out of Langley much do ya?

Not to mention that the R5 is a straight shot up to SFU too. Anywhere on the North Shore -> Purple Line -> R5 will probably always be better than -> SeaBus -> R5 or -> Purple Line -> Millennium Line -> Burnaby Mountain Gondola.

On snowy days, well then -> Purple Line -> Millennium Line -> Burnaby Mountain Gondola will be just as seamless.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by mcj

Just this little relatively unknown street called Hastings I think? and this weird attempt at an amusement park with dog shows sometimes. /s

Don't get out of Langley much do ya?

In context, you'd see I was talking about Purple, not Yellow.

Make sure you know what you're talking about before you start trying to mock people.


Hastings Street in Burnaby isn't that huge. There's density, but not enormous.

The PNE isn't accessed by purple, because the crossing is on a new bridge east of the existing IWMB.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by fredinno

In context, you'd see I was talking about Purple, not Yellow.

Yup, knew exactly what you were referring to! Thanks for clarifying the obvious

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by mcj

Yup, knew exactly what you were referring to! Thanks for clarifying the obvious

Right, so explain how to get from PNE to this bridge crossing (purple):

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by fredinno

I would point out as final points that Norgate also covers Coal Harbour and the West End, which counteracts that fact (putting the entire West End <15 min walk is a huge plus.)
We could see the West End become the next Yaletown along with Broadway (maybe).

But what do you mean by "become the next Yaletown"? The West End is already the densest neighborhood in the city (and denser than Manhattan!) by a wide margin. I don't know that Skytrain down West Georgia would lead to a development boom beyond what's already happening without it.

Over half of West End residents walk or bike to work and I doubt they would switch. For the people that take transit and drive, I wonder what share would regularly use NS Skytrain, although plenty would use it on the weekends to get to the mountains. I have a feeling a lot of West Enders leaving the peninsula are headed to UBC or Broadway, and not the NS.

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by fredinno

Right, so explain how to get from PNE to this bridge crossing (purple)

Take Skytrain to the station at Boundary, transfer to R5.

[fredinno]

Originally Posted by FarmerHaight

But what do you mean by "become the next Yaletown"? The West End is already the densest neighborhood in the city (and denser than Manhattan!) by a wide margin. I don't know that Skytrain down West Georgia would lead to a development boom beyond what's already happening without it.

Over half of West End residents walk or bike to work and I doubt they would switch. For the people that take transit and drive, I wonder what share would regularly use NS Skytrain, although plenty would use it on the weekends to get to the mountains. I have a feeling a lot of West Enders leaving the peninsula are headed to UBC or Broadway, and not the NS.

I mean development. It's stalled out for a while, while Yaletown is effectively an extension of downtown now.

Manhattan is an entire borough several times larger than the West End.

The size comparison is actually closer to the entire CoV, not the West End.


Burrard to corner of Davie and Denman is 26 min walking. That can go under 15 min.


Skytrain gives an excuse to revisit the West End Plan (the main blockage) so it actually allows a large amount of new development.


Also, it allows a station sort of near Stanley Park.