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  #41  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 4:33 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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I guess we can sort of reverse the question and ask - are the positive attributes of Chicago, the high density, prewar urban bones, great architecture, transit orientation - are these things that normal everyday people (outside of urbanist forums) really care about?
     
     
  #42  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 4:42 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by wg_flamip View Post
I'd agree for North America, but Buenos Aires has it beat in the Americas as a whole IMO.
Yeah, probably. I do think they're in about the same tier, though. A tier in which I would also include Rio de Janeiro and Santiago.

Last edited by iheartthed; Feb 19, 2023 at 5:33 PM.
     
     
  #43  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 5:24 PM
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
I guess we can sort of reverse the question and ask - are the positive attributes of Chicago, the high density, prewar urban bones, great architecture, transit orientation - are these things that normal everyday people (outside of urbanist forums) really care about?
It depends on age.

For people under 40. Absolutely.

The only way to enjoy nearby vibrant commercial districts is with density and lots of affordable apartments. Also dating opportunities. Only the most boring and reclusive young people prefer the suburbs.

After age 40, most people don’t care one bit. Schools and jobs rank highest, but there’s often a reluctance to switch metros after a certain point. It’s not until retirement that most normies consider moving.

That’s why the OP’s observation of friends from the West Coast thinking about the sunbelt instead of Chicago is more of a “duh” observation than a meaningful economic trend. Unless they somehow happen to be friends with lots of college students, it makes no sense for them to interact with people who move to Chicago.

If the choices are exurban McMansion in the snow vs exurban McMansion in the heat, the choice is obvious. Chicago has never in its history been a leading destination for middle-aged and elderly.

Looking at the age pyramids of Chicago and Austin (unfortunately older data, but trends are still the same), you can see right away that the cities are home to completely different people.

Chicago


Cook County


Tarrant County (Austin, TX)

Last edited by galleyfox; Feb 19, 2023 at 5:38 PM.
     
     
  #44  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 5:35 PM
Investing In Chicago Investing In Chicago is online now
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Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
It depends on age.

For people under 40. Absolutely.

The only way to enjoy nearby vibrant commercial districts is with density and lots of affordable apartments. Also dating opportunities. Only the most boring and reclusive young people prefer the suburbs.

After age 40, most people don’t care one bit. Schools and jobs rank highest, but there’s often a reluctance to switch metros after a certain point. It’s not until retirement that most normies consider moving.
I'll state the obvious since nobody seems to understand reality. Generally speaking young families are not raising their kids in Chicago or other large urban areas, it doesn't matter what they prefer, it just isn't feasible or ideal for the vast majority of families. That should be a shock to absolutely nobody.
Having been raised in Manhattan, I'm speaking from first hand experience that it generally sucks for the first 10+ years of a kids life.

Urban cores will continue to attract Young, childless people with discretionary income, Chicago is certainly doing that today.
     
     
  #45  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 5:42 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
It depends on age.

For people under 40. Absolutely.

The only way to enjoy nearby vibrant commercial districts is with density and lots of affordable apartments. Also dating opportunities. Only the most boring and reclusive young people prefer the suburbs.

After age 40, most people don’t care one bit. Schools and jobs rank highest, but there’s often a reluctance to switch metros after a certain point. It’s not until retirement that most normies consider moving.

That’s why the OP’s observation of friends from the West Coast thinking about the sunbelt instead of Chicago is more of a “duh” observation than a meaningful economic trend. Unless they somehow happen to be friends with lots of college students, it makes no sense for them to interact with people who move to Chicago.

If the choices are exurban McMansion in the snow vs exurban McMansion in the heat, the choice is obvious. Chicago has never in its history been a leading destination for middle-aged and elderly.

Looking at the age pyramids of Chicago and Austin (unfortunately older data, but trends are still the same), you can see right away that the cities are home to completely different people.
I think this is more generational than based on aged. As my generation moves into our 40s, I don't detect a major shift in preference for suburban versus urban. If anything, I notice people my age trying to balance cost without sacrificing the convenience of living in urban communities.
     
     
  #46  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 6:59 PM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I think this is more generational than based on aged. As my generation moves into our 40s, I don't detect a major shift in preference for suburban versus urban. If anything, I notice people my age trying to balance cost without sacrificing the convenience of living in urban communities.
I think that’s probably true for people who were living an urban lifestyle for most of their youth. But I think suburban —> urban migration is minimal after a certain point.

For example, Seattle SFH —>Chicago condo would be an extreme minority of movers.

Seattle Condo —> Chicago condo and College Dorm —> Chicago condo is far more likely.

Whereas Manhattan apartment to Chicago condo is not uncommon.

A simply cannot see most people choosing to transition to higher density if they’re older.
     
     
  #47  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:03 PM
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I guess I'm the first one to notice this and point it out but, and I know this by heart and don't even need to look as I'm somewhat familiar with the Lone Star State, Tarrant County which you used is where Fort Worth is in North Texas; Austin is in Travis County.

Now, it's entirely possible the population pyramid in Austin is somewhat similar to the population pyramid in Fort Worth, but still, wrong county.

(Travis was the commander at the Alamo, I've always found it easy to remember the capital's county honors him.)
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  #48  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:04 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
I guess I'm the first one to notice this and point it out but, and I know this by heart and don't even need to look as I'm somewhat familiar with the Lone Star State, Tarrant County which you used is where Fort Worth is in North Texas; Austin is in Travis County.

Now, it's entirely possible the population pyramid is somewhat similar, but still, wrong county.
Ope my bad. Brain mixing up the T counties, but most Texas counties are similar.

In any case, Austin attracts a slightly older demographic starting around their mid 30s.

Compared to the North side of Chicago which is a giant college town.


Last edited by galleyfox; Feb 19, 2023 at 7:20 PM.
     
     
  #49  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:09 PM
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
I guess we can sort of reverse the question and ask - are the positive attributes of Chicago, the high density, prewar urban bones, great architecture, transit orientation - are these things that normal everyday people (outside of urbanist forums) really care about?
Exactly. This community is its own little bubble, let's not forget that

For "normal people", great prewar urban bones isn't (anywhere near!) the #1 criterion...
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  #50  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:13 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by galleyfox View Post
I think that’s probably true for people who were living an urban lifestyle for most of their youth. But I think suburban —> urban migration is minimal after a certain point.

For example, Seattle SFH —>Chicago condo would be an extreme minority of movers.

Seattle Condo —> Chicago condo and College Dorm —> Chicago condo is far more likely.

Whereas Manhattan apartment to Chicago condo is not uncommon.

A simply cannot see most people choosing to transition to higher density if they’re older.
Yeah, for sure. I don't think people are likely to migrate that far in any direction from what they've settled into by 40. That said, the path to prosperity for Chicago, or any other city, will not be through appealing to the tastes of what native-born Americans seemingly desire today. The path to prosperity for Chicago and other cities is to think about who will choose to live there in 10, 20, or 50 years and why. Talking about what people want in 2023 doesn't matter. That is how cities like New York and London think.
     
     
  #51  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:54 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Complaining about cold weather and snow is pretty lame. Unfortunately, the people who complain about it all don't pack up and leave. Some do, but some stick around and keep complaining about the weather.

I lived in the sunbelt for four years. People don't take advantage of the milder weather during the winter. They sit inside and watch TV just like people in the north.
     
     
  #52  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:57 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
It's not more of a hassle than Florida/Texas summers. Trust me

"Perception is reality", though. Whether it's about Chicago crime or Chicago winters.
You don't have to shovel, scrape or plow sunshine.
     
     
  #53  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 7:59 PM
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Canada doesn't have a Sunbelt for us to decamp to (well we can but it's more complicated!), if Chicago joined us then it would really be booming
Is the weather between Chicago and Toronto that different? I always assumed it would be pretty close.
     
     
  #54  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 8:22 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The path to prosperity for Chicago and other cities is to think about who will choose to live there in 10, 20, or 50 years and why. Talking about what people want in 2023 doesn't matter. That is how cities like New York and London think.
I wouldn’t say cities “think” about the future. They respond to changes that are already happening within.

It’s bleedingly obvious that Chicago has a large and growing student and new graduate population from around the Midwest.

Which means the local universities have been growing more popular for prospective students. UIC for example has been setting enrollment records almost every year of the past decade. UChicago, Northwestern, DePaul, ect have also been doing quite well.

Developers have responded to that growth with apartment construction to the point where Chicago apartments are now more affordable than apartments in large parts of the U.S. Which triggers even more interest among younger renters.

Even the incoming black and Hispanic population is looking like a young college crowd.

What happens beyond that point? I don’t know. There are not many examples of college towns that are diverse reaching that scale.
     
     
  #55  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 8:38 PM
TempleGuy1000 TempleGuy1000 is offline
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I don't mean this as a personal attack on anyone, and I remember first thinking about this many years ago after talking to my brother and sister, both who lived and worked in Manhattan for many years, but NYCer's are largely disconnected from normal American life so much so they have a very warped view of reality. "Oh just do what NY and London did!" is a lot simpler said then done. NYC is a revolving door of endless immigration. While it's certainly America's greatest city, it's also one of the most un-American cities in the country. Almost no city has the luxury to raise tax revenue to fund social programs like NYC does. While at the same time having massive out-migration every year that is made up for by even more immigration and young people dreaming of living there. It goes a lot deeper than that but you can get the picture.
     
     
  #56  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 8:39 PM
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Chicago will always be the Midwest's alpha city.

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Originally Posted by goat314 View Post
This, it's the reason that places like Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, etc. are not attracting a lot of new growth and investment. They are just mature, legacy cities, and despite them being interesting as hell and dynamic in their own right, they are not the clean, easy slate that you find in a city like Nashville, Charlotte, Denver etc.
I've ranted about this elsewhere, but there's some cities throughout the Midwest that, while none of them experienced the rapid increase in population from industrialization (Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis) are still sort of a Midwest equivalent to the Sunbelt in terms of growth patterns and economic development.

I've called them the "New Midwest" because I don't know what would be a more appropriate name:

Indianapolis
Minneapolis
Columbus
Grand Rapids
Madison
Kansas City
Omaha (?)
     
     
  #57  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 8:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago View Post
I'll state the obvious since nobody seems to understand reality. Generally speaking young families are not raising their kids in Chicago or other large urban areas, it doesn't matter what they prefer, it just isn't feasible or ideal for the vast majority of families. That should be a shock to absolutely nobody.
Having been raised in Manhattan, I'm speaking from first hand experience that it generally sucks for the first 10+ years of a kids life.

Urban cores will continue to attract Young, childless people with discretionary income, Chicago is certainly doing that today.
The suburbs count as being in the urban areas, yes? Overland Park for sure is part of the KC urban area.
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
I've called them the "New Midwest" because I don't know what would be a more appropriate name:
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
Columbus
Grand Rapids
Madison
Kansas City
Omaha (?)
Not as catchy and too long. Maybe give it a "belt" name? "NMW" kinda works though...acronyms are always a good way to go.
Cornbelt, railbelt, ect.
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  #58  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 9:44 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Exactly. This community is its own little bubble, let's not forget that

For "normal people", great prewar urban bones isn't (anywhere near!) the #1 criterion...
but they are among the criteria that urbanists, skyscraper geeks, city lovers, urban/transportation planners use to compare Toronto to Chicago, and not Dallas or Houston

Chicago and to a lesser extent Toronto are seen as world class (Toronto near world class?) cities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global...search_Network
     
     
  #59  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2023, 10:55 PM
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"Missing middle" housing can be a great middle ground for many middle class families.
     
     
  #60  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2023, 7:04 PM
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My general feeling is Chicago is only a draw for midwesterners and most other coastal refugees are probably seeking the sun belt. I guess 10 million is its equilibrium point because its been 10 million more or less for 20 years. It takes a certain mindset to uproot yourself from suburban Los Angeles and move to Illinois. Also Chicago doesn't really need the rest of America. As long as big ten colleges keep cranking out graduates, Wrigleyville will keep selling beer.
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