Could DFW hit a populations as high as 11-14 million?

[Dariusb]

I recently read a couple of articles saying the DFW area is expected to hit a population of 11-14 million before slowing down. The CSA is about 8.2 million now. Do you think it's possible? Do you think it'll lose steam before then? If that really happens, hopefully it's transit network will be improved before then. People think traffic there is bad now, it'll really be hell if it reaches 11-14 million.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

I recently read a couple of articles saying the DFW area is expected to hit a population of 11-14 million before slowing down. The CSA is about 8.2 million now. Do you think it's possible? Do you think it'll lose steam before then? If that really happens, hopefully it's transit network will be improved before then. People think traffic there is bad now, it'll really be hell if it reaches 11-14 million.

What is 'slowing down' and when? Of course, DFW is so spread out and I believe it may now cross the OK border, so it is possible that more areas in OK and even west TX may be consolidated to DFW. It will also be interesting to see how much Austin can continue to grow, and how Houston would be impacted by the eventual decline of the oil/gas industry. Of course, much of the state and our nation will be impacted by climate change - Dallas is in tornado alley, and we all know Houston's challenge.

[Yuri]

Let's take Dallas CSA as that's what will be their MSA in next decades: 8,121,108 inh. in 2020, growing 19.3% over 2010.

Being generous, I guess Dallas can grow another 16%, to reach 9.4 million in 2030 and maybe 12% for 10.5 million in 2040 and 9% to 11.5 million in 2050.

That's the best case scenario in my opinion, so yeah, just above 11 million.

[Steely Dan]

Given it's growth trajectory, it absolutely could reach that high, and if I were a betting man, I'd say that it probably will hit 11M at a minimum. How much higher it goes, who knows?

[C.]

What’s the timeframe. If we’re saying from now until the end of human existence, then yeah Dallas will probably hit 14 million.

[mhays]

Reduced birth rates in the US might play a big role here, particularly if we don't expand immigration beyond typical levels.

The US and world are also seeing lower birth rates. Climate change moves could offset that for some areas, but will those numbers be large enough in the timeframe we're talking about?

[homebucket]

I agree with Yuri's estimates.

DFW will continue to grow, but I think growth rates will slow significantly as it becomes more and more expensive to live there.

[Hudson11]

Texas has so many urban centers that it's hard to say.

[bilbao58]

My pessimistic opinion: Texas will be climatically uninhabitable before that happens.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

My pessimistic opinion: Texas will be climatically uninhabitable before that happens.

I think we are a long way off before most people (i.e. Dallas) sees any appreciable difference in climate where it's become uninhabitable. We're talking beyond our lifetimes. I bet the Cowboys will still suck.

[dc_denizen]

if they double the density Dallas could handle 20 million.

[R1070]

DFW has plenty of room to fill in gaps, become more dense and even spread out more and easily add millions more people. It's laid out for the growth.

[SFBruin]

Dallas is at 8 million? My goodness.

[SFBruin]

Delete.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

Dallas is at 8 million? My goodness.

Only in a parallel universe where Fort Worth does not exist.

[DFW]

The estimated January 1, 2021 population for the NCTCOG region is 7,874,950. Last year the region added 158,540 people. Even though the north central Texas region, as well as the rest of the country faced a big challenge due to the pandemic, the region still managed to grow by almost the same amount as it did in 2019. In 2020, 12 cities grew by 10% or more. Fort Worth led the region in growth, adding almost 17,000 people last year while Frisco added close to 16,000, followed by McKinney with 6,100 and Dallas with 5,560. Collin, Denton, Dallas, and Tarrant Counties each added more than 25,000 people last year, with Collin County leading the way with 43,000 new residents. The region has added more than 1.3 million new residents since 2010.
https://popestimates.nctcog.org/

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by DCReid

What is 'slowing down' and when? Of course, DFW is so spread out and I believe it may now cross the OK border, so it is possible that more areas in OK and even west TX may be consolidated to DFW. It will also be interesting to see how much Austin can continue to grow, and how Houston would be impacted by the eventual decline of the oil/gas industry. Of course, much of the state and our nation will be impacted by climate change - Dallas is in tornado alley, and we all know Houston's challenge.

Yeah, DFW's CSA already includes Bryan County, OK. I live in the Killeen/Temple area and we're about an hour or so north of Austin and some people who can't afford Austin have moved here. There was a YouTube video where this economist said that he thinks the area between Waco, Killeen/Temple, Austin and San Antonio could fill in and be connected. I guess it could happen but not sure if it would in my lifetime. I'm 43 now.

[Dariusb]

Originally Posted by DFW

The estimated January 1, 2021 population for the NCTCOG region is 7,874,950. Last year the region added 158,540 people. Even though the north central Texas region, as well as the rest of the country faced a big challenge due to the pandemic, the region still managed to grow by almost the same amount as it did in 2019. In 2020, 12 cities grew by 10% or more. Fort Worth led the region in growth, adding almost 17,000 people last year while Frisco added close to 16,000, followed by McKinney with 6,100 and Dallas with 5,560. Collin, Denton, Dallas, and Tarrant Counties each added more than 25,000 people last year, with Collin County leading the way with 43,000 new residents. The region has added more than 1.3 million new residents since 2010.
https://popestimates.nctcog.org/

On the Fort Worth side, one of the fastest growing counties(outside of the core counties you've already mentioned) is Parker County which includes the city of Weatherford. I know the area south of Dallas doesn't look to be growing much. The county south of Fort Worth, Johnson County, is growing at a decent rate.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by JManc

I think we are a long way off before most people (i.e. Dallas) sees any appreciable difference in climate where it's become uninhabitable. We're talking beyond our lifetimes. I bet the Cowboys will still suck.

There's a huge gap between less-good, uncomfortable, and uninhabitable. Cities can have big headwinds between the first two, and somewhere between the last two would be disastrous.

[iheartthed]

I don't think it will happen before 2050. Who knows what the future holds, though.