Real Estate in your city

[lio45]

I’m with Crawford; why not let the market dictate what gets built?

Usually, buildings get replaced by more square footage, even if less units.

30 SRO units turning into 20 condos that can accommodate large families is a densification, yet would be illegal with this idiotic bill.

The number of units isn’t THE factor that always dwarfs everything else.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by lio45

I’m with Crawford; why not let the market dictate what gets built?

Usually, buildings get replaced by more square footage, even if less units.

30 SRO units turning into 20 condos that can accommodate large families is a densification, yet would be illegal with this idiotic bill.

The number of units isn’t THE factor that always dwarfs everything else.

Increasing the number of housing units was the entire point of allowing them to build taller buildings. They should absolutely not be replacing buildings with fewer units anywhere in this city.

[lio45]

Except for airport flight paths, is there a good reason to not build taller buildings, in a dense metropolis already known for its skyscrapers?

You’re making it sound like taller buildings are a bad thing, only acceptable if there’s a trade-off to make up for it.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by lio45

I’m with Crawford; why not let the market dictate what gets built?

Usually, buildings get replaced by more square footage, even if less units.

30 SRO units turning into 20 condos that can accommodate large families is a densification, yet would be illegal with this idiotic bill.

The number of units isn’t THE factor that always dwarfs everything else.

its not farm country and generally there are no large families anymore in the western world anyway, particularly wealthy ones that could afford those. so adding more apts or at least treading water would be much better than taking away apts.

[Steely Dan]

Wall Street: U.S. housing market to see the second-biggest home price decline since the Great Depression
BYLANCE LAMBERT
October 3, 2022 at 4:37 AM CDT

National home price declines are uncommon, but it does occur on occasion. It happened in the early 1980s, then again in the early 1990s, and most notably in the years following the 2008 housing crash. That said, sharp home price declines are incredibly rare: Only the Great Depression and the Great Recession saw nationwide home prices fall in the double-digits range.

That history—or lack of history—is why recent outlooks published by Wall Street titans are raising eyebrows. Not only is there a building consensus on Wall Street that we’ve entered into a period of falling home prices, but there’s also a consensus it will be the second-sharpest home price decline since the Great Depression.

Let’s take a look at where financial giants expect U.S. home prices to head next.

full article: https://fortune.com/2022/10/03/housi...fitch-ratings/



a nationwide home price drop between 5 - 10% in the coming months seems to be the general consensus among wall street's heavy hitters, and a drop between 10 - 15% if we go into a full recession (though of course not all markets will be affected equally).


this quote at the end of the article sums up the roller coaster ride that we might be on:

Of course, if home prices actually drop 10% to 15%, Fortune might rebrand the Pandemic Housing Boom. The Pandemic Housing Bubble sounds more fitting.

if you're thinking about jumping into the residential real estate market for the first time, i'd suggest waiting.

[Crawford]

Fine with me. We just bought a few months ago, but probably won't sell for decades. So don't really care about present worth.

The market, at least nationwide, was irrational until relatively recently. 5-10% is a pretty modest haircut.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The market, at least nationwide, was irrational until relatively recently.

particularly in certain "hot" markets like nashville, austin, boise, etc. where Moody's rates the local residential market at least 60% over-valued based on underlying fundamentals.

if history is anything to go on, the higher a local market rose during the pandemic-fueled feeding-frenzy, the harder it is likely to fall.

but not always, of course. Moody's still rates the bay area as one of the nation's very few under-valued markets. there appears to be no ceiling out in planet earth's capital city of tech.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

but not always, of course. Moody's still rates the bay area as one of the nation's very few under-valued markets. there appears to be no ceiling there.

I wonder why they did that. Listing prices here have clearly been dropping and houses are now sitting for much longer on the market. Used to be pending sale within 5-7 days. Now it's taking 30-60 days or even longer. No more bidding wars either. Sellers are implementing price reductions to speed up sales.

[Investing In Chicago]

^^^ Agreed. Anywhere the entire market is "the hot market" such as the cities you described, will get crushed on the correction. I don't find anything special about Austin and Nashville (i've never been to Boise), very overrated IMO.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with certain sub-markets within larger markets. Minneapolis is in no way a hot market overall but where I live on Lake Minnetonka is certainly hot right now, it's probably top 2 or 3 submarket in the midwest, certainly #1 outside of Chicago. We had a bit of dumb luck on our house, we bought the site from a builder who went bankrupt after he poured the foundation, we STOLE the lot, even by 2018 standards. Fast Forward to recently, and we have hand written letters in our mailbox, monthly, from people wanting to buy our home for, no joke, DOUBLE what our cost was. it's insane. We of course are not selling, and I don't suspect that level of crazy will continue, but there is 1 undeveloped lot left on my Bay, and probably less than 10 tear down level homes left, so that should provide a bit of a safety net long term.

[homebucket]

Inventory Appears to Have Peaked, Reductions Still on the Rise
October 3, 2022

... the percentage of homes on the market in San Francisco with an asking price that has been reduced at least once, which typically peaks in November or December, has ticked up another percentage point to 31 percent, which is eleven (11) points higher than at the same time last year and nearly double the percentage in October of 2019, with the average asking price per square foot of the homes on the market in San Francisco having just dropped back under $1,000 per square foot and trending down.

https://socketsite.com/archives/2022...-the-rise.html

[jmecklenborg]

The real problems start when recent owners have negative equity AND lose their jobs. That's what happened in the 2008-09 collapse - people walked away from their homes. And with destroyed credit, they weren't able to buy a house 2-3 years later when prices hit rock-bottom.

Why do lenders favor large down payments? Because it reduces the likelihood that people will walk away from a house.

[Kngkyle]

Rents in my area (Chicago, northside neighborhoods) have been increasing enough to offset the added borrowing costs from higher interest rates, resulting in year 1 rental cash flows remaining largely unchanged. I'm still a buyer in this market.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Rents in my area (Chicago, northside neighborhoods) have been increasing enough to offset the added borrowing costs from higher interest rates, resulting in year 1 rental cash flows remaining largely unchanged. I'm still a buyer in this market.

For the time being, the Chicago housing market is just doing its usual thing.









https://www.parcllabs.com/articles/q3-real-estate

[twister244]

None of this is really surprising. The markets that rose the most over the past five years are the same ones falling the fastest. Happy to see Chicago floating through like it normally does, as it indicates our market is more in touch with reality.

Something to keep in mind though..... Even though prices are falling, and that sounds like a good thing for those looking to buy, remember rates are rising.

Rates are pushing north of 6.5% now for a 30-year fixed. Yeah, that home you have been eyeing may have dropped $50k, but if rates are double what they were at the beginning of the year, your monthly costs may not be that much different. There's no indication further rate hikes aren't in store. Simply - The market is responding to higher rates after being INSANELY low for so long. I've got two properties - A condo in Denver, and a condo here in Chicago. My rates on both properties are 2.75 and 3.5 percent. If I do the difference in amortization between where my property was at the beginning of the year with lower rates versus a 10% drop in value with current rates, my payments are actually HIGHER if I were to buy the same place.

So yeah, prices are dropping, those drops are being offset with rising rates.

[homebucket]

Pretty sick penthouse.

$1,499,000
1615 Broadway #14, Oakland, CA 94612
2 beds 2 baths 2,100 sq ft

Executive penthouse at the top of the historic Oakland landmark Cathedral Building, this distinctive iconic flatiron Gothic-Chateauesque is one of the most sought-after buildings in the Bay area. Living on top of the world in Oakland with exceptional 360 sublime views of the Bay Area from your private rooftop deck. This unit surrounding with cathedral windows makes it light and bright with a plethora of views. This urban living-style executive penthouse comes with a great open layout. That includes 2 levels, a mezzanine, double primary bedroom suites with classic marble bathroom floors, tall ceilings, 2,100 sqft of living space, modern kitchen, gas stove, stone countertops, wine fridge, laundry in-unit, lots of storage, wood floors and private-elevator access. This unit is located in the vibrant hip Uptown of Oakland. The urban gateway to the hot new art and entertainment district with cafes, gourmet eateries, shops, nightlife, rock climbing, ice skating, and Old-town Farmers Market. The historic Fox Theater and the art deco Paramount Theater offer live performances. Lake Merritt, Jack London Square, and Chinatown are a short stroll from Uptown. An easy commute to San Francisco. A rare opportunity to own this one of a kind trophy penthouse. Open house Sun, 10/2, 2-4p.

https://www.coryandchenhomes.com/lis...tyid/41010122/

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Fine with me. We just bought a few months ago, but probably won't sell for decades. So don't really care about present worth.

The market, at least nationwide, was irrational until relatively recently. 5-10% is a pretty modest haircut.

Same. We remodeled ours and plan on growing old there. Another upside is property/ school taxes drop with lower assessments.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by JManc

Same. We remodeled ours and plan on growing old there. Another upside is property/ school taxes drop with lower assessments.

That's only true if only your place is assessed lower. The county/city/whatever needs to raise roughly the same amount of money either way, so the amount you pay is probably about the same (i.e. you expect the rate to increase inversely proportional to decrease in baliws).

[Yuri]

m² price in Brazilian cities - Sep 2021 / FIPE/ZAP

It's an index that calculated the price of units actually sold, incredibly comprehensive and spot on.

Till few years ago, São Paulo was 3rd behind Rio de Janeiro and Brasília. It jumped ahead but now, for the first time, it was surpassed by Balneário Camboriú in the Sep edition.

1 m² = 10.76 sq ft / US$ 1 = R$ 5.18 (e.g. São Paulo US$ 1,941/m²)

Balneário Camboriú (SC): R$ 10.741
São Paulo (SP): R$ 10.055
Rio de Janeiro (RJ): R$ 9.843
Itapema (SC): R$ 9.810
Vitória (ES): R$ 9.794
Florianópolis (SC): R$ 9.311
Itajaí (SC): R$ 8.988
Brasília (DF): R$ 8.780
Curitiba (PR): R$ 8.315
Barueri (SP): R$ 8.153
Belo Horizonte (MG): R$ 7.551
São Caetano do Sul (SP): R$ 7.244
Vila Velha (ES): R$ 7.173
Recife (PE): R$ 6.945
Maceió (AL): R$ 6.885
Niterói (RJ): R$ 6.769
Fortaleza (CE): R$ 6.724
Osasco (SP): R$ 6.576
Porto Alegre (RS): R$ 6.469
São José dos Campos (SP): R$ 6.413
Santo André (SP): R$ 6.231
Manaus (AM): R$ 5.917
Goiânia (GO): R$ 5.898
Santos (SP): R$ 5.805
Joinville (SC): R$ 5.793
São José (SC): R$ 5.769
Diadema (SP): R$ 5.767
Salvador (BA): R$ 5.685
Guarulhos (SP): R$ 5.619
Campinas (SP): R$ 5.615
Guarujá (SP): R$ 5.515
São Bernardo do Campo (SP): R$ 5.502
João Pessoa (PB): R$ 5.348
Blumenau (SC): R$ 5.233
Campo Grande (MS): R$ 4.950
Jaboatão dos Guararapes (PE): R$ 4.922
Praia Grande (SP): R$ 4.905
Canoas (RS): R$ 4.892
Caxias do Sul (RS): R$ 4.862
Santa Maria (RS): R$ 4.844
São José do Rio Preto (SP): R$ 4.459
Novo Hamburgo (RS): R$ 4.425
Ribeirão Preto (SP): R$ 4.314
Londrina (PR): R$ 4.297
São Leopoldo (RS): R$ 4.292
Contagem (MG): R$ 4.278
São José dos Pinhais (PR): R$ 4.212
São Vicente (SP): R$ 4.132
Pelotas (RS): R$ 4.058
Betim (MG): R$ 3.420

weighted average (50 cities): R$ 8.214

[sopas ej]

From Architectural Digest:

Timothée Chalamet Buys Kate Upton’s Beverly Hills Home for $11 Million

By Kathryn Schultz
October 17, 2022

It turns out that Timothée Chalamet was the buyer of model Kate Upton and baseball player Justin Verlander’s Beverly Hills pad. The Academy Award-nominated actor, who garnered acclaim for his roles in Dune, Little Women, and Call Me By Your Name, paid $11 million for the 5,521 square-foot East Coast traditional-style house, according to Dirt.

Set on a securely gated 1.5-acre parcel of land above Benedict Canyon, the four-bedroom, five-bathroom abode was built in 1976 but has since been remodeled and outfitted with modern touches, including a complete overhaul of the eat-in kitchen helmed by Upton and Verlander, who decked it out with a huge marble-topped island and a breakfast nook. Although the couple only slightly touched up the rest of the home, it was apparently enough to more than double the $5.3 million they paid for it in 2016.

Other interior details include a formal dining room, a climate-controlled wine storage room, and a living room replete with an oversized fireplace. A candle-style chandelier adorns the family room, which features white oak floors, white paneled walls, and a matching white vaulted ceiling with contrasting charcoal gray exposed beams. A brick terrace, a plunge pool with an adjoining spa, rose gardens, and a tennis court are all found outside.

Chalamet, who hails from New York City and attended Columbia and NYU, continues to split his time between coasts and rents an apartment in Manhattan in addition to his new Los Angeles home. He is the latest in a string of famous inhabitants of the house, including Kenny G, Hollywood producer Jon Peters, and tennis player Pete Sampras, who reportedly made daily use of the tennis courts. Upton and Verlander, on the other hand, have seemingly relocated their primary residence to Florida, where they bought a $6 million Palm Beach County mansion last year.

Link: https://www.architecturaldigest.com/...rly-hills-home

Pics of his house from the Los Angeles Times / Anthony Barcelo:

[Crawford]

The exterior and grounds are very nice. The interior looks like a Restoration Hardware job at a McMansion.