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  #18481  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 2:46 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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3000 apartments in one neighborhood in 3 years?

Rents are down 10-15% compared to 2019.

Unless we see a sudden, dramatic uptick in demand above and beyond pre-pandemic times, that's just preposterous. I don't see lenders coming out of the woodwork to finance that kind of volume unless and until they see evidence that they will get the kinds of projected returns that they typically expect.
There was already an article in Crains a few weeks ago talking about how downtown rental buildings are coming back up and nearing pre pandemic vacancy rates again. It was all about how some buildings were desperate and offering multiple months free, and now they're stopping because they've seen a sudden uptick in people renting again.

I've seen multiple articles already, not just for Chicago, but for multiple places talking about stuff like this as well as city dwellers trying to move to the suburbs only to find out its not for them and want to move back. Not only that but the reality that most companies aren't actually going to go to 100% WFH. Even if you are only required.to be in the office 3 of 5 days a week for an office job, I think a lot of people will choose to still be in the city especially ones without children.
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  #18482  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 3:13 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ I've read all of those, and that is by far the most optimistic take on the situation.

I'm sorry, but I am thoroughly unconvinced. There is simply zero precedent to build 3000 units in 1 neighborhood in 3 years by 1 developer at this point in time.

I hope to be proven wrong by how things play out this summer. Trust me (as a Chicago landlord).
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  #18483  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 4:18 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ I've read all of those, and that is by far the most optimistic take on the situation.

I'm sorry, but I am thoroughly unconvinced. There is simply zero precedent to build 3000 units in 1 neighborhood in 3 years by 1 developer at this point in time.

I hope to be proven wrong by how things play out this summer. Trust me (as a Chicago landlord).
I am 100% positive without a shadow of a doubt that JDL has done an extensive, proper market analysis/due diligence and can secure phased financing to get this development started. And they have the track record/experience to prove that they can get this done.

One critical thing to consider is that even if Covid had not happened, the real estate cycle that started in earnest around 2014-2015 was already at the hypersupply/recession inflection point in early 2020, so the market would have weakened regardless, the Covid pandemic just hastened that, considerably so. I think of it as a loaded spring, the more kinetic energy you lock up, the greater that energy release will be at the tail end of this nightmare. The pandemic contracted a possibly prolonged, 2-3 year recession into a 12-14 month period. I feel strongly that things will stabilize sooner than later.
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  #18484  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 4:34 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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^ I've read all of those, and that is by far the most optimistic take on the situation.

I'm sorry, but I am thoroughly unconvinced. There is simply zero precedent to build 3000 units in 1 neighborhood in 3 years by 1 developer at this point in time.

I hope to be proven wrong by how things play out this summer. Trust me (as a Chicago landlord).
I dont disagree that you should be skeptical. 3000 units is pretty crazy. However, there's a lot going towards continuing urban development.

1) downtown rental vacancies are coming back to pre pandemic levels, apparently.

2) Companies are pushing for full office work like before, or hybrid. Even with a hybrid model, I think that a lot of workers will opt for the city.

Your average 20 something or even newer 30 somethings aren't going to magically want to abandon a city environment. A lot of people made knee jerseys reactions because for some reason they thought thought companies would go 100% remote even. A lot of them even so wouldn't move anyway. Look for more companies to open up in places like Chicago which offer much better housing prices than the coasts.

3) Articles about people who moved to the suburbs (not just Chicago but also nyc, sf, etc) wanting to move back. I've even seen articles about people from NYC moving to Florida and TX wanting to ditch it and move back to NYC again.

4) Tech roles and companies in Chicago continuing to hire. VC funding in Chicago already well over $1B for the year. Last year was the highest year in VC funding in Chicago in 15+ years. Roles like management consulting I think are still increasing in the city. There's also companies like Google still planning to hire hundreds (or more) new people in West Loop alone.. These are are types of jobs that bring these types of luxury or luxuryish new developments whether small 3 unit buildings like Lakeview or 300 unit buildings in West Loop, RN, etc.

5) with #4 above, the West Loop is increasingly becoming a go to neighborhood for tech companies. Especially those who do not want to associate themselves with old school stiff corporate culture.


I think its easy to be skeptical and i don't blame it. It's important to not be overly optimistic either but some of the new developments going on now do make sense.
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  #18485  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 4:48 PM
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I love working from home. I also hate it and cannot WAIT to get back into the office. I don't miss the commute, but I do miss how much more focused I was in the office.

Point is, a hybrid model in place moving forward, giving people the option to do either just seems...practical. I miss eating out downtown, but I don't miss the 25 lbs I've lost since WFH began. I actually miss seeing/interacting with my colleagues, and I miss seeing the sidewalks downtown filled with people. I don't miss dealing with jerks (both in the office, and on the sidewalks downtown lol).
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  #18486  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 4:59 PM
OrdoSeclorum OrdoSeclorum is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
3000 apartments in one neighborhood in 3 years?

Rents are down 10-15% compared to 2019.

Unless we see a sudden, dramatic uptick in demand above and beyond pre-pandemic times, that's just preposterous. I don't see lenders coming out of the woodwork to finance that kind of volume unless and until they see evidence that they will get the kinds of projected returns that they typically expect.
Fulton Market or the other spot that's adding 4000 units--the Moody Bible site--are great places to live. I believe that demand for units at either of those locations is essentially unlimited. If they were at Armitage and Halsted they could add even more.

If they were adding 7000 units combined at Kinzie and Adams plus Roosevelt and State, absorption rates would depend almost entirely upon regional vacancy, Loop employment and other economic factors.
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  #18487  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 5:08 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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I love working from home. I also hate it and cannot WAIT to get back into the office. I don't miss the commute, but I do miss how much more focused I was in the office.

Point is, a hybrid model in place moving forward, giving people the option to do either just seems...practical. I miss eating out downtown, but I don't miss the 25 lbs I've lost since WFH began. I actually miss seeing/interacting with my colleagues, and I miss seeing the sidewalks downtown filled with people. I don't miss dealing with jerks (both in the office, and on the sidewalks downtown lol).
This is exactly how I and so many others feel. I love WFH when I have to really get something done heads down - distractions in the office are no good. I miss interacting with my coworkers and all that.

I think a lot of business leaders and people have warmed to a hybrid model. I don't think that your average 22 to 35 year old is going to abandon the city even for a hybrid model. I just transferred in someone to nyc who was living in another area of the country, who told me they didn't want to live in suburbia anymore and that was legitimately their #1 reason. They had multiple teams here interested and it was hell or high water for them to come here still.. I have had multiple similar inquiries from other people in my company under similar situations and so too have my coworker in SF, Seattle, and Chicago.
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  #18488  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 5:27 PM
CaptainJilliams CaptainJilliams is online now
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Yeah, I'm one of those 20 - 30 somethings that can't wait to get back in the office. Unless you are completely introverted I couldn't imagine working 100% remotely, I barely stayed sane during the pandemic.
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  #18489  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 5:48 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ I've read all of those, and that is by far the most optimistic take on the situation.

I'm sorry, but I am thoroughly unconvinced. There is simply zero precedent to build 3000 units in 1 neighborhood in 3 years by 1 developer at this point in time.

I hope to be proven wrong by how things play out this summer. Trust me (as a Chicago landlord).
I reluctantly (because I want it to be true) agree, building 3000 units in one neighborhood would have been crazy ambitious even before the pandemic...
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Yeah, I'm one of those 20 - 30 somethings that can't wait to get back in the office. Unless you are completely introverted I couldn't imagine working 100% remotely, I barely stayed sane during the pandemic.
I’m pretty “extroverted” but have been loving remote work. I get plenty of socialization with my actual friends and family now instead of forced socialization via meetings and cubicle mates all without the added pleasure of a tedious commute and montonous schedules. I suppose it depends on your actual job—the nature of mine allows me to be pretty flexible with my daily routine now that I’m at home. I might be singing a different tune if I was truly locked to my laptop for zoom meetings for a normal 8-5 workday. I truly can’t/won’t ever go back to normal office life, even if it means finding a new job or even career.
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  #18490  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 5:53 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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I reluctantly (because I want it to be true) agree, building 3000 units in one neighborhood would have been crazy ambitious even before the pandemic...

I’m pretty “extroverted” but have been loving remote work. I get plenty of socialization with my actual friends and family now instead of forced socialization via meetings and cubicle mates all without the added pleasure of a tedious commute and montonous schedules. I suppose it depends on your actual job—the nature of mine allows me to be pretty flexible with my daily routine now that I’m at home. I might be singing a different tune if I was truly locked to my laptop for zoom meetings for a normal 8-5 workday. I truly can’t/won’t ever go back to normal office life, even if it means finding a new job or even career.

Yeah, you'd probably be having a different tune. I've had way more meetings during the pandemic than before. Everyone knows you are there, so they are scheduling way more last minute meetings. Before the pandemic, I could take an hour for lunch when I wanted without fear of missing something. Now? Nope. Not everyone here is the same, and I've made sure anyone on my teams isn't subjected to this one average, but so many people in general have been. Many days in the last year I have gone without food or water all day at work. Some days like today are OK. Others are on meetings or putting out fires without a break from 9am until 7pm. Never an issue at the office pre.pandemic and not good nor sustainable. I enjoy WFH sometimes but not others. I've been finding that many people are now getting fatigued from this. Its a psychological/cultural thing, but people use WFH as an excuse for being ridiculous with meetings and schedule.
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  #18491  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 6:24 PM
CaptainJilliams CaptainJilliams is online now
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Yeah, you'd probably be having a different tune. I've had way more meetings during the pandemic than before. Everyone knows you are there, so they are scheduling way more last minute meetings. Before the pandemic, I could take an hour for lunch when I wanted without fear of missing something. Now? Nope. Not everyone here is the same, and I've made sure anyone on my teams isn't subjected to this one average, but so many people in general have been. Many days in the last year I have gone without food or water all day at work. Some days like today are OK. Others are on meetings or putting out fires without a break from 9am until 7pm. Never an issue at the office pre.pandemic and not good nor sustainable. I enjoy WFH sometimes but not others. I've been finding that many people are now getting fatigued from this. Its a psychological/cultural thing, but people use WFH as an excuse for being ridiculous with meetings and schedule.
^ This. I've experienced similar things in my pandemic work, and it really depends on the industry, some jobs are easier to do WFH than others. I just know that long term I'd be looking for a role that was either part-WFH and part-in office or full-time in office.

Maybe it wasn't accurate to say only introverted people enjoy the 100% WFH model, but I think it becomes harder to build work relationships and a steady culture all over Zoom calls.
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  #18492  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 6:30 PM
west-town-brad west-town-brad is offline
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the desire to "procreate" will end all of the WFH nonsense
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  #18493  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 6:47 PM
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Yeah, you'd probably be having a different tune. I've had way more meetings during the pandemic than before. Everyone knows you are there, so they are scheduling way more last minute meetings. Before the pandemic, I could take an hour for lunch when I wanted without fear of missing something. Now? Nope. Not everyone here is the same, and I've made sure anyone on my teams isn't subjected to this one average, but so many people in general have been. Many days in the last year I have gone without food or water all day at work. Some days like today are OK. Others are on meetings or putting out fires without a break from 9am until 7pm. Never an issue at the office pre.pandemic and not good nor sustainable. I enjoy WFH sometimes but not others. I've been finding that many people are now getting fatigued from this. Its a psychological/cultural thing, but people use WFH as an excuse for being ridiculous with meetings and schedule.
Yesterday was my first weekday with no zoom meetings in a longgggg time (because some collaboration meeting is happening that I'm not going to and so all my meetings got canceled). It was amazing.
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  #18494  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 6:50 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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the desire to "procreate" will end all of the WFH nonsense


Yeah, I was gonna say.... All of the married folks living in the burbs might be fine with WFH but if I were under 35 and single, WFH could quite possibly be the most soul-gutting thing one could experience from a social-life standpoint
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  #18495  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 9:40 PM
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I'm not a subscriber...


Downtown alderman’s move could clear way for one of city’s tallest skyscrapers on Thompson Center site


https://www.chicagotribune.com/colum...~1~7~art%20yes
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  #18496  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 9:42 PM
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The most salient portion
Quote:


Ald. Brendan Reilly, 42nd, wants to allow more than 2 million square feet of space on the sprawling state-owned site, at 100 W. Randolph St., that is up for sale. The proposed ordinance is expected to be introduced Wednesday to the City Council’s zoning committee, and it could be up for a vote by the committee — and eventually the full City Council — as soon as April, he told the Tribune Tuesday.

Using bonuses that allow developers to pay fees to build more space, an investor could seek city approval for even greater density, potentially clearing the way for a tower of 100 stories or more.
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  #18497  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 9:45 PM
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Your average 20 something or even newer 30 somethings aren't going to magically want to abandon a city environment. A lot of people made knee jerseys reactions because for some reason they thought thought companies would go 100% remote even. A lot of them even so wouldn't move anyway. Look for more companies to open up in places like Chicago which offer much better housing prices than the coasts.
An entire college graduating class was forced to move into their parent's basements. Lots of other under-30 year-olds did the same. Their job prospects will improve and they will eventually want their own housing. The real question is whether, when that happens, they will prefer suburban-style or city-style living. My guess is that they will prefer the in-person social options a city provides.
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  #18498  
Old Posted Mar 23, 2021, 9:46 PM
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I'm not a subscriber...


Downtown alderman’s move could clear way for one of city’s tallest skyscrapers on Thompson Center site


https://www.chicagotribune.com/colum...~1~7~art%20yes
Here you go

Quote:
Ald. Brendan Reilly, 42nd, wants to allow more than 2 million square feet of space on the sprawling state-owned site, at 100 W. Randolph St., that is up for sale. The proposed ordinance is expected to be introduced Wednesday to the City Council’s zoning committee, and it could be up for a vote by the committee — and eventually the full City Council — as soon as April, he told the Tribune Tuesday.

Using bonuses that allow developers to pay fees to build more space, an investor could seek city approval for even greater density, potentially clearing the way for a tower of 100 stories or more.

..

The government building opened in 1985, but Reilly’s predecessor, Burton Natarus, decreased zoning for the site as it was being built. Since zoning was slashed to half the density of surrounding properties, the 1.2 million-square-foot building has been out of zoning compliance for its 36-year lifetime, Reilly said.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker recently talked with Reilly to seek a return to the site’s previous zoning, in an effort to provide clarity about what can be built there and increase the site’s value, Reilly said.

Reilly said he rejected zoning changes sought by previous governor Bruce Rauner, who wanted approval for 4 million square feet up front, without a public review process of specific proposals. Pritzker’s request is reasonable because it merely seeks to duplicate zoning of surrounding properties downtown, Reilly said.

..

“Restoring the underlying zoning will allow it to reach true market value,” Reilly added. “Now everyone will have clarity on what is within the art of the possible for this site.”

..

The Thompson Center is seen by real estate investors as a rare opportunity to redevelop an approximately 3-acre site in the heart of the Loop. But there are several hurdles.

Preservation groups want to see the 17-story structure saved and redeveloped by the buyer. But the state has said the building is costly to heat and cool and is in need of well over $300 million in repairs.

Some developers would prefer to knock down the glassy structure and start with a clean slate, but demolition would be costly and time-consuming because of heavy pedestrian and vehicle traffic in the area — and because the building is connected to the CTA’s Clark and Lake train station.

“No matter what developer purchases this site or what proposal they come to the city with for zoning, they must keep that CTA station open throughout the demolition and construction process, no matter what,” Reilly said.

..

Another obstacle is a master lease for the retail space in the building’s glass-enclosed atrium and lower-level food court that doesn’t expire until 2034. Officials have evaluated legal options with regard to the master lease, held by Boston’s Winthrop Realty Trust and Chicago’s Marc Realty, but it’s an issue that may ultimately be left to the buyer to resolve.

..

Pritzker’s administration had planned to pick a buyer by the end of 2020, but the pandemic led the General Assembly last year to extend the deadline to find a buyer to April 5, 2022. The Tribune reported in November that the Illinois Department of Central Management Services would start soliciting proposals from developers in the first quarter of 2021.

..

Development of a new skyscraper on the Thompson Center site would generate $20 million to $25 million in new property tax revenue annually, since the state doesn’t pay property taxes, Reilly said.

“This site has sat fallow for far too long,” Reilly said. “It’s costing Illinois taxpayers a lot of money in unnecessary maintenance costs, and it’s depriving Chicago taxpayers of tens of millions of dollars in property tax revenue each year.”
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  #18499  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2021, 8:49 PM
twister244 twister244 is online now
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Yeah, I was gonna say.... All of the married folks living in the burbs might be fine with WFH but if I were under 35 and single, WFH could quite possibly be the most soul-gutting thing one could experience from a social-life standpoint
Or you could do the "other" option, which is go into co-working spaces. You get the best of both worlds:
1 - You get to socialize with people. This means you can flirt too, and not have to worry about HR because you don't work with them!
2 - You can still stay remote, while not having to be at home all day.

I see some people returning to the office, a few staying home. But I also see a ton people flooding co-working spaces remotely to stay remote so they can work from anywhere they want. WeWork was a few years too early....
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  #18500  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2021, 9:05 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Or you could do the "other" option, which is go into co-working spaces. You get the best of both worlds:
1 - You get to socialize with people. This means you can flirt too, and not have to worry about HR because you don't work with them!
2 - You can still stay remote, while not having to be at home all day.

I see some people returning to the office, a few staying home. But I also see a ton people flooding co-working spaces remotely to stay remote so they can work from anywhere they want. WeWork was a few years too early....
When we move to Chicago, my wife will end up being remote because her office is only in nyc. I recommend this option to her LOL.
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