Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

That's kinda the gist of the email my in-laws received from the management of their complex on Sanibel. It's a beachfront property with a grouping of about a dozen or so 4 story reinforced concrete condo blocks arranged kinda v-shaped around a central pool/lawn area.

The whole property was obviously flooded, so first floors, landscaping, and the pool are all lost, but the preliminary inspection of the buildings says that they should be ok structurally.

The beach itself saw substantial erosion, but natural currents and waves may rebuild much of the beach over time anyway.

I think multi-story concrete condominium and hotel buildings are fine in any hurricane,

But most of Sanibel is 2-story residential at best, and though you can’t easily see from aerial flybys, the ground floors are completely busted from photos my friends have sent.

Buildings will be sitting for months with extensive saltwater damage, and most will have no electricity, no police or fire response, and minimal ability to make repairs.

Here’s one brief video from the ground level.
https://youtu.be/QRqNnbcxaTs

[Chicago29]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The Army Corps of Engineers tore down tens of thousands of homes along the Mississippi, Ohio, and their tributaries generations ago. You can't build anything there, under any circumstances. Yet...we're blinded by the light? Property damage doesn't "count" when it's in a sunny tourist area?

And it's not just the homes, it's all of the destroyed furniture, all of the dead pets, all of the destroyed cars. At most recent count, 4,000 people who didn't heed evacuation warnings had to be rescued from Hurricane Ian. We just let them off the hook? They don't have to pay for their rescue or maybe spend 90 days in jail?

Like, if the police tell me to do something, I expect consequences if I don't do it. I'm getting fined, I'm getting yelled at, I'm getting roughed up, I'm going to jail. But hurricane evacuations are special...those rules don't apply.

I understand the sentiment. Actually I worked for USACE during Irma for their blue roof mission and one anecdote I heard was the majority of temporary (free) home roof repairs in Florida went to households that did not update their roofs to whatever standard was established post-Hurricane Andrew. Makes sense that the majority of damage occurs to houses that aren't prepared. Just one specific example of FEMA subsidizing and allocating resources to those who refuse to invest in improving their situation.

At the same time I have some sympathy for those who stayed (not to mention obviously those who died). This storm's path changed dramatically over the last 48 hours. I have family in Sarasota who were prepared to leave within 24 hours but stayed because the eye continued to move south towards Fort Myers. Less sympathy for the stubborn, but have some for the elderly or the poor who didn't have the means to fully know the extent of the hurricane or act.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by bobdreamz

Fair enough but why are you dismissing the impact on Miami-Dade county when ANDREW hit it's population was over 2 Million.
The political and economic ramifications of that storm went beyond where the Storm surge occurred.
Isn't what this thread is about?

My argument is mostly that wind damage is a temporary economic blow, and storm surge is a more-or-less permanent economic blow.

Like, if a wooden house collapses in 160 mph. Well, that sucks, but you can rebuild it as an anchored concrete block home, and there will be no further issues.

But for storm surge, there is no long-term mitigation besides relocation or building a massive flood barrier (and that’s pointless in a beach state). Most infrastructure and smaller buildings don’t survive storm surge w/o catastrophic deaths and expenses.

It’s not like Hurricane Ian was an unprecedented superstorm. It was a standard Cat 4, that came at the right angle and speed, and is extremely likely to repeat every 30-60 years.


I don’t agree that all of Florida is at risk or won’t grow, but coastal Florida needs a reality check that a lot of it is a ticking time bomb.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Chicago29

Actually I worked for USACE during Irma for their blue roof mission

Thanks for triggering a flashback to Katrina - I'll never forget the sea of blue tarps covering thousands of roofs in New Orleans. As you drove on I-10 (or whatever the elevated highway is there), that blue was this regular repeating feature of the landscape. It was crazy seeing how bulldozers had shoved the remnants of homes into vacant strip mall parking lots and how the piles of debris were like 30 feet high.

This storm's path changed dramatically over the last 48 hours.

...like it seemingly does with almost every single hurricane. People act like hurricanes sneak up on them with the capriciousness of a tornado. It's like, if you can't afford to drive to a hotel 50 minutes inland, you can't afford to live on the coast. If you can't coral your pets, throw them in the car, and get out of town within a few hours, you have too many pets. There is a big difference between owning one cat and owning six dogs, and there are tons of people out there with six dogs.

[iheartthed]

Hard to imagine much of anything being fixed on Sanibel Island without a bridge. Have they even given estimates on how long that will take to be rebuilt? Or if it will be rebuilt at all?

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm curious - Who pays to repair that water damage? I was under the impression most homeowners insurance doesn't cover damage due to flooding, or is storm surge different?

Flood insurance is separate. You would have 2 policies, a wind storm damage policy and a flood policy. We have both. Our flood insurance is cheap since we dont live in a flood zone and we are miles inland.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Flood insurance is separate. You would have 2 policies, a wind storm damage policy and a flood policy. We have both. Our flood insurance is cheap since we dont live in a flood zone and we are miles inland.

I think I've read that the majority of people in flood zones don't have flood insurance (because... it's expensive if you live somewhere where you really need it...)

[Innsertnamehere]

Growing up we would visit Florida regularly and usually stayed on Sanibel. The little beachside motel we typically stayed in was completely destroyed, apparently... flattened to the foundation. Shocking, really. Have a lot of memories on Sanibel.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm curious - Who pays to repair that water damage? I was under the impression most homeowners insurance doesn't cover damage due to flooding, or is storm surge different?

apparently the complex has hurricane flood insurance specifically because it's a 400 unit property directly on the beach in FL.

the policy was likely many millions of dollars/year, but the place caters to the wealthy, and since it's run on a time share model, there are literally thousands of "owners" to divide that extra cost among.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

apparently the complex has hurricane flood insurance specifically because it's a 400 unit property directly on the beach in FL.

the policy was likely many millions of dollars/year, but the place caters to the wealthy, and since it's run on a time share model, there are literally thousands of "owners" to divide that extra cost among.

At that scale, it starts to make sense to self-insure: put those many millions of dollars per year into a quickly-rising fund (which you can even invest in things that aren’t too risky) and from time to time, spend $20 million on cleaning up after a storm surge, while saving money AND also being sure your insurer will never invoke some technicality to try to refuse to pay.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by lio45

At that scale, it starts to make sense to self-insure: put those many millions of dollars per year into a quickly-rising fund (which you can even invest in things that aren’t too risky) and from time to time, spend $20 million on cleaning up after a storm surge, while saving money AND also being sure your insurer will never invoke some technicality to try to refuse to pay.

yeah, perhaps the management company went that that route.

i don't know the specifics, just that when we spoke to my father-in-law, he made it sound like the money to rebuild will be there one way or another.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by lio45

At that scale, it starts to make sense to self-insure: put those many millions of dollars per year into a quickly-rising fund (which you can even invest in things that aren’t too risky) and from time to time, spend $20 million on cleaning up after a storm surge, while saving money AND also being sure your insurer will never invoke some technicality to try to refuse to pay.

I'm not sure that's true, remember that the time between events in a poisson distribution is exponentially distributed. So if the expected rate is once every 30 years, there's a 10% chance of having two within 3 years of each other which would probably blow up your self insurance.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

I think I've read that the majority of people in flood zones don't have flood insurance (because... it's expensive if you live somewhere where you really need it...)

Most lenders will require flood insurance if you are in a flood prone area though, so that makes it difficult for many. The flood insurance itself is subsidized by the federal government and isn't remotely close to what the market rate would be. The program is about $21b in debt and that's after Congress cancelled $16b of debt a few years ago. There was some talk about charging market rates so it wouldn't have to be constantly bailed out but those impacted successfully lobbied Congress against paying their fair share. I read somewhere that one example had a homeowners premium increasing from $700/yr to over $7000/yr if charged market rate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...urance_Program

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

Most lenders will require flood insurance if you are in a flood prone area though, so that makes it difficult for many. The flood insurance itself is subsidized by the federal government and isn't remotely close to what the market rate would be. The program is about $21b in debt and that's after Congress cancelled $16b of debt a few years ago. There was some talk about charging market rates so it wouldn't have to be constantly bailed out but those impacted successfully lobbied Congress against paying their fair share. I read somewhere that one example had a homeowners premium increasing from $700/yr to over $7000/yr if charged market rate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...urance_Program

Yeah, this is bullshit. It's fine for it to be non-profit, but it should charge sustainable rates.

But, if lenders require flood insurance, why do less then half the people in the flood plain have it? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/c...insurance.html Have they paid off their mortgage already?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Yeah, this is bullshit. It's fine for it to be non-profit, but it should charge sustainable rates.

But, if lenders require flood insurance, why do less then half the people in the flood plain have it? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/c...insurance.html Have they paid off their mortgage already?

Do lenders regularly check that flood insurance policies are active? I'd guess they don't after the mortgage is approved.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Yeah, this is bullshit. It's fine for it to be non-profit, but it should charge sustainable rates.

But, if lenders require flood insurance, why do less then half the people in the flood plain have it? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/c...insurance.html Have they paid off their mortgage already?

Around 30% of American homes are owned outright - no mortgage. It wouldn't surprise me if in coastal Florida (higher than average % of wealthy retirees) the percent without a mortgage is much higher.

[JManc]

We have flood insurance on both of our houses (optional) and no way would we ever go without it. Russian Roulette with Houston climate.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Do lenders regularly check that flood insurance policies are active? I'd guess they don't after the mortgage is approved.

In Canada at least, if you try that, the insurers will only be too happy to alert the lender that the policy just got cancelled...

Happened to me, and I had to crawl back to the insurance company with my tail between my legs.

(I had decided to not renew because land value alone at that point was way higher than my mortgage. Even though I was right, I couldn't convince the banking bureaucracy. They have rigid rules. If there's a loan on a property that has a structure on it, it must be insured, regardless.)

In FL, everything I own is free and clear so I have no insurance at all. Probably saved well into the six figures at this point (it's been a decade). 30% nationwide, but as Kyle says, in FL it's likely higher.

[Randomguy34]

Florida's death toll is now 100. This is not looking good

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/03/us/hu...day/index.html

[SIGSEGV]

Given questions about late evacuation orders (justified by Ft. Myers barely being outside the "cone"), I wonder if the NHC should publish a 90% cone in addition to the 68% cone.