Metro Phoenix Transit/Transportation Developments

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

Wow, not sure how this didn't make the news today. Maybe tomorrow. Southwest is adding a new international flight from PHX, going to Cancun once per day.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/southw...on-long-beach/

My mistake, this is on AZCentral as of now: https://www.azcentral.com/story/trav...le/3879893001/

Nice! And this is a place I have been wanting to go visit soon!

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

I'm sure transit is hurting here just as much if not more. But the difference is because we don't have such a massive system that moves so many people the losses while significant for the transit operation don't have the same impact on a city budget as they would like in New York or San Francisco when a much greater % of their budget is spent on transit. So we might be losing tens of millions, but they're losing billions due to the larger and more expensive systems they operate.

Exactly that.

For example, Denver which is not as big a metro area as Phoenix finally finished their "FasTracks" projects when they opened the N (North) Line in September. They now have 8 corridors of light and commuter rail running along 112 miles of track. Generally, all are suburb to city/downtown routes. Downtown Denver is a dead zone currently. While RTD has a good (sales tax) revenue stream, collections took a big hit early on.

Originally Posted by combusean

I know writing prophetic articles generates ad revenue, but what transit looks like in the future is anyone's guess. Let's not forget that many of these systems were at or exceeding capacity before, so the only given, some conversion to permanent telework for some people, could be a reprieve for crush loads and expensive equipment orders.

Significantly this.

Many of the transit systems in larger urban areas lack or have only modest dedicated revenue streams. I didn't realize that Caltrain had no dedicated revenue until I read THIS.

In the Bay Area, voters threw a lifeline to Caltrain, a financially troubled regional commuter line that runs through three Silicon Valley counties. Nearly 70% voted for Measure RR, which enacts a 1/8-cent sales tax that will go to the train line.

“Remarkably, Caltrain has never had a dedicated source of revenue in its 30 years of existence. About 70% of revenue is generated by ticket sales,” said San Mateo County Supervisor Dave Pine, Caltrain’s board chair.

Many of the larger transit agencies have strong farebox recovery rates and relied heavily on this revenue. With few riders and no backup revenue to speak of they quickly started bleeding boatloads of cash.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

To answer some of your questions, the problem seems to be especially bad in the Northeast and the Bay Area. If I were to speculate as to why, I'd suggest a few reasons:

1) Those regions locked down harder and longer than much of the nation's interior, resulting in much greater erosion of ridership in those coastal cities.

2) In those cities, there is more discretionary transit use by white collar workers who were able to shift to driving or working from home. In places like Phoenix, a larger fraction of riders are either so-called "essential workers" who have to be on site or transit-dependent passengers who can't shift to driving.

Close... no question the 'lockdown' or safe-at-home plus work-from-home had an outsized impact on these larger metro areas.

The largest "original six" legacy transit agencies also have much larger fixed costs. It goes significantly to their strong unions and benefit packages especially ongoing retirement costs. High wage standards along with union rules leaves those agencies less room to maneuver.

Originally Posted by exit2lef

3) Back in the spring, when NYC was the place experiencing the worse of the pandemic, there was a lot of misguided blaming of the city's density and public transit. Now that the virus is spreading rapidly in places like the Dakotas, that seems pretty well disproved. Nevertheless, the perception of the subway as an unsafe space persists to this day.

I assume that you are familiar with what Mark Twain said about statistics? By cherry picking the right statistics you can likely prove that gravity is not a thing. Proving that transit wasn't a risk doesn't even pass the smell test. That's not to say that with 'social distancing' and the wearing of masks that transit can't be made much safer.

Pandemic Affect

People vote with their feet. Not only do they feel uncomfortable with transit but migration patterns have accelerated with people moving out of denser areas to what are now being called "Second Cities." The migration to sunbelt cities and the SW incl Phoenix has also accelerated. Interestingly, not to be left out, Tulsa OK is offering $10,000 to anyone working-at-home that wants to move to Tulsa.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Pandemic Affect

People vote with their feet. Not only do they feel uncomfortable with transit but migration patterns have accelerated with people moving out of denser areas to what are now being called "Second Cities." The migration to sunbelt cities and the SW incl Phoenix has also accelerated. Interestingly, not to be left out, Tulsa OK is offering $10,000 to anyone working-at-home that wants to move to Tulsa.

I would not be surprised if Phoenix has gained 100,000 refugees from California alone from this year.

Half of my office are former Californians moved here in the last 24 months.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I would not be surprised if Phoenix has gained 100,000 refugees from California alone from this year.

Half of my office are former Californians moved here in the last 24 months.

ABC15 and Chris Camacho agree; companies also:

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-ph...spite-pandemic

By: John Genovese - Dec 10, 2020

PHOENIX — Despite the coronavirus pandemic, the Valley is continuing to see “near-record level” interest from major companies looking to relocate, according to Chris Camacho with the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. “Over the last 20 years, we’ve seen California momentum into Arizona but I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this,” he said.

According to GPEC, nearly one in three companies considering relocation to the state are from California. Historically, that number is typically around one in four.

[ASU Diablo]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

ABC15 and Chris Camacho agree; companies also:

https://www.abc15.com/news/region-ph...spite-pandemic

Thanks for sharing. This is great to see that the corporate interest is still there after the recent passing of Prop 208

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I assume that you are familiar with what Mark Twain said about statistics? By cherry picking the right statistics you can likely prove that gravity is not a thing. Proving that transit wasn't a risk doesn't even pass the smell test. That's not to say that with 'social distancing' and the wearing of masks that transit can't be made much safer.

It's not about cherry-picked statistics. It's about an absence of any significant evidence linking public transit to widespread outbreaks:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...rus-outbreaks/

I do agree, however, that widespread mask wearing and reduced crowding are important in maintaining transit's impressive safety record during the pandemic.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

It's not about cherry-picked statistics. It's about an absence of any significant evidence linking public transit to widespread outbreaks:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...rus-outbreaks/

I do agree, however, that widespread mask wearing and reduced crowding are important in maintaining transit's impressive safety record during the pandemic.

This is pretty much true for anything though. Despite being 10 months into this pandemic nobody seems to have any evidence on the spread of the virus in gym, bars, restaurants, air planes, etc. I feel like it's just laziness.

[Obadno]

The measures against the pandemic spread isnt based on anything besides:

"Please dont blame us, Look we said space out and close bars, not our fault! WE DID EVEYRTHING WE COULD! Pleas keep using our products/ PLEASE REELECT ME"-Signed your panicked public figure/business owner

Its airport security, large demonstrations of doing "something" even if it is largely ineffective and unnecessary

[Obadno]

The Northwest extension got 54 Million in fed funding

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

It's not about cherry-picked statistics. It's about an absence of any significant evidence linking public transit to widespread outbreaks:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...rus-outbreaks/

I do agree, however, that widespread mask wearing and reduced crowding are important in maintaining transit's impressive safety record during the pandemic.

Previous comments by PHXFlyer11 and Obadno are on point.

There's not much science in that Scientific American piece. Only relevant points were they didn't find any "super-spreader events" or obvious clusters. These happen at identifiable places with known groups of people - like at a church or even the White House.

Train riders get on and off at different points and ride at different times; then they go to work and to various places throughout their day. Since it takes the virus from 4 to 5 days for symptoms to arise there's no way of proving where and when they 'contacted' the virus. Obviously w/o certainty people with a transit agenda aren't gong to blame transit.

It is fair to say that with safety measure taken, transit is no worse that other activities.

Originally Posted by Obadno

The Northwest extension got 54 Million in fed funding

Love me good government cheese.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Previous comments by PHXFlyer11 and Obadno are on point.

There's not much science in that Scientific American piece. Only relevant points were they didn't find any "super-spreader events" or obvious clusters. These happen at identifiable places with known groups of people - like at a church or even the White House.

Train riders get on and off at different points and ride at different times; then they go to work and to various places throughout their day. Since it takes the virus from 4 to 5 days for symptoms to arise there's no way of proving where and when they 'contacted' the virus. Obviously w/o certainty people with a transit agenda aren't gong to blame transit.

It is fair to say that with safety measure taken, transit is no worse that other activities.


Love me good government cheese.

I have to say, I have been going to the gym this entire time except for the three months they were closed and I see little to no evidence of spread there.

Don't get me wrong, i do think you could catch it from touching something or being in close proximity, but i think it tends to spread where people are actually making contact. For example, you aren't hugging, touching or talking directly too many people on a plane, train or in a gym. At a restaurant or at a gathering you're more likely to hug, talk, and touch as you are with friends and/or family.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

Although I wouldn't go so far as to say Phoenix is charmed, it has fared much better than many other cities. Ridership fell about 50% at the height of the stay-at-home order. That's certainly not good, but it's nowhere near as bad as the numbers given for other cities in Bliss' piece. Thankfully, construction has continued on the South Central and Northwest Phase II extensions and has probably been less disruptive than it could have been due to less traffic on the streets.

Phoenix has been both lucky and smart.

Like most cities which have an obvious and popular bus corridor, Phoenix did the obvious by making that their 1st light rail project route. They also got it built before the Big Cost increases that have occurred since. They built theirs for about ~$70 million a mile. Consider that they are now spending ~$180 million a mile on the South Central Extension.

• Usually the most obvious 1st light rail route has good ridership. Check!
• Other than for other city's extensions, they didn't build out routes likely to be much less successful. Check!
• The appeal of the South Central extension pleased the FTA deciders. Check!

Aside from what is already baked in to be completed by 2024, I'm going to assume that Phoenix won't waste more money on light rail. They'll instead start establishing some Bus Rapid Transit corridors. Despite the name I also assume they will start with BRT-lite. But as a corridor establishes its chops, hopefully they'll move to upgrade to a fuller BRT script. This is when "walkability" will become real.

2030, here we come.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by PHXFlyer11

I have to say, I have been going to the gym this entire time except for the three months they were closed and I see little to no evidence of spread there.

Don't get me wrong, i do think you could catch it from touching something or being in close proximity, but i think it tends to spread where people are actually making contact. For example, you aren't hugging, touching or talking directly too many people on a plane, train or in a gym. At a restaurant or at a gathering you're more likely to hug, talk, and touch as you are with friends and/or family.

Good points.

I'm inclined to think most of the spread is by aerosols (in the air) but also by direct contact. The other key is a combination of time and exposure. For some unknown reason many people aren't 'spreaders' while others can spread the virus like crazy. For places that are airy and have good ventilation the risk is greatly reduced. Planes are considered to have very good ventilation systems. Outdoors is obviously safer.

[muertecaza]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Phoenix has been both lucky and smart.

Like most cities which have an obvious and popular bus corridor, Phoenix did the obvious by making that their 1st light rail project route. They also got it built before the Big Cost increases that have occurred since. They built theirs for about ~$70 million a mile. Consider that they are now spending ~$180 million a mile on the South Central Extension.

• Usually the most obvious 1st light rail route has good ridership. Check!
• Other than for other city's extensions, they didn't build out routes likely to be much less successful. Check!
• The appeal of the South Central extension pleased the FTA deciders. Check!

Aside from what is already baked in to be completed by 2024, I'm going to assume that Phoenix won't waste more money on light rail. They'll instead start establishing some Bus Rapid Transit corridors. Despite the name I also assume they will start with BRT-lite. But as a corridor establishes its chops, hopefully they'll move to upgrade to a fuller BRT script. This is when "walkability" will become real.

2030, here we come.

Not sure I totally agree that basically they should stop light rail expansion with the South Central and Phase I Capitol extensions. Highest density, best transit ridership and lowest incomes are in west Phoenix, and it would be a mistake IMO not to run a line out there. It would make light rail seem even more like a real estate development scheme than an actual transit mode. I don't love the I-10 alignment, but even if that stays the plan I think they should prioritize making it happen.

I also wish they would revive the West Phoenix/Glendale line, but that seems DOA at this point. Honestly if we had it to do over again I wonder if we would have been better off running the NW line to GCU and the north on 35th Ave., as opposed to running it to a dead mall, but that ship has sailed.

With you though that they're better off having suspended the NE line. Wish they would have rolled that money into the other extensions or even BRT rather than streets though.

[PHXFlyer11]

Originally Posted by muertecaza

Not sure I totally agree that basically they should stop light rail expansion with the South Central and Phase I Capitol extensions. Highest density, best transit ridership and lowest incomes are in west Phoenix, and it would be a mistake IMO not to run a line out there. It would make light rail seem even more like a real estate development scheme than an actual transit mode. I don't love the I-10 alignment, but even if that stays the plan I think they should prioritize making it happen.

I also wish they would revive the West Phoenix/Glendale line, but that seems DOA at this point. Honestly if we had it to do over again I wonder if we would have been better off running the NW line to GCU and the north on 35th Ave., as opposed to running it to a dead mall, but that ship has sailed.

With you though that they're better off having suspended the NE line. Wish they would have rolled that money into the other extensions or even BRT rather than streets though.

I'm not sure how much more sense light rail makes either. If Scottsdale would've got onboard, then a line down Scottsdale road and a line down Indian school would've been great, but absent that, I don't know how much sense it makes for Phoenix beyond this.

I think a couple of circular trolley routes would be much more effective at this point. Single or double car trolleys would also be easier to keep clean and have more appeal. A route around downtown, midtown/uptown, arcadia and grand would all make sense.

The good news is Tempe will start this experiment shortly. If it works well maybe Phoenix would jump in the game.

[Obadno]

I think there are a few potential corridors for light rail spurs but overall Light Rail is for moderate mass transit.

Commuter Rail is probably more important for focus going forward but then again I don't think the core has enough employment density for it to really be beneficial, at least not for many more years.

[YourBuddy]

Depending on how successful Musk’s boring tunnel in Vegas is that could be a future option. That’s about the only thing I think nimbys in Scottsdale would consider, but even then I doubt it.

[exit2lef]

Some of the most logical light rail routes are outside Phoenix city limits. The one that would make the most sense by far is a Scottsdale Rd / Rural Rd route running north-south through Scottsdale, Tempe, and Chandler. Of course, that's not going to happen due to Scottsdale's obstinance.

That unrealized dream aside, there's currently an Arizona Avenue Alternatives Analysis in progress, focusing on another corridor in Chandler. The "locally preferred alternative" is supposed to be presented in December 2020, which means any day now. It could be light rail, but it could also be a revival of BRT along that corridor or perhaps a streetcar. The light rail or streetcar options will be controversial and I give them a 50/50 chance of approval.

The Alhambra / Glendale route that was scuttled made sense until it reached downtown Glendale. The Glendale City Council foolishly saw Westgate as the ultimate destination, but the sports sprawl there is always a team relocation away from irrelevance. A cheaper and much more sensible option would have been to head north along 59th Avnue from downtown Glendale, serving destinations like Glendale Community College along the way. Unfortunately, that was never seriously considered.

Unless Chandler comes on board, I think we'll ultimately end up with a system map much like MARTA in Atlanta, which does a good job of serving the central city and selected inner suburbs but does not serve the entire metropolitan area. I'm okay with that because the areas that have embraced light rail are the ones I most often visit. Still, there may always be a sense of what could have been.

[MMDelon]

Yeah I can't believe Glendale passed on the light rail. The development by Westgate and up towards Arrowhead Mall really could of benefited from the light rail. How does Mesa jump up and down a s embrace the light rail and Glendale be so against it with Westgate and the Stadium in the City? I think everyone knew Scottsdale wasn't going want it and I can see the light rail not working by PV Mall but not Glendale? That side of town really could benefit from the light rail. I think the city should focus on extending it further down the i10 and add the street car idea in downtown Phoenix too.