Winnipeg Construction X

[wardlow]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger

I don't think most people outside this forum realize just how much suburban growth in Winnipeg has sucked up most development in the last decade. Outside pandemic years, Winnipeg is growing much faster than Fargo obviously. Fargo grew by roughly 6,600 people between 2016 and 2021 (5.5%) whereas Winnipeg grew by 44,363 (6.3%) over the same period. What affects built form is obviously all about where these new (and existing) people went.

I don't know much about built form and urban structure in Fargo, but I do know that in Winnipeg, the vast majority of dwelling construction, and therefore population growth, has occurred in the Bridgwater area, followed by Sage Creek, Bonavista, Amber Trails, and River Park South. Below is a rough estimate of where the ~40,000 people who moved to Winnipeg between 2016 and 2020 went based on dwelling construction and Statistics Canada people-per-dwelling estimates. Of course I don't actually know with certainty where everyone went, and it could be that people moving to Winnipeg displaced people in existing areas who sold their homes to move to new areas, but it gives you an idea.

Map in spoiler due to image size.

The basic conclusion from this exercise is that suburban growth has vacuumed up nearly all growth in the last 5 years, with Bridgwater being the major concentration. If Bridgwater (and other suburban developments) were never approved or significantly scaled down for whatever reason, I'd imagine two things would happen: we'd see a lot more mid-rise developments in inner-city areas that everyone here is clamoring for, but at the same time it would be partially offset by exurban flight with people who want suburban dwellings opting to move to La Salle, Oak Bluff, Headingly, Niverville, and East/West Saint Paul.

The City is kind of in a tough spot IMO. Yes, you can incent denser development on surface parking lots and in inner-city neighborhoods, but municipal property tax breaks (the only incentive) likely don't change the development equation much since they only make up a tiny fraction of development costs. And if the City doesn't approve suburban development, people will just demand it be built in the outlying municipalities mentioned above who are more than happy to accommodate growth (for now) and commute to Winnipeg, putting pressure on city roads and services without the benefit on municipal taxes. Like it or not, people have preferences and prairie dwellers love big houses and yards, so even if policy tries to force denser development, the market may not support it and cause other negative spillover effects.

Food for thought!

There's a couple of things missing from this take, which may not totally contradict what you're saying but certainly add to it. One is that the majority of new development suburban areas of Winnipeg are not large lot single-family, but instead of a lot more dense. Ask any of Winnipeg's big suburban developers and they'll tell you that both consumer demand and costs are pushing toward more density: smaller yards single-family (smaller than a typical River Heights lot, say), townhouse, apartments.

The second is that the surrounding municipalities are not able to sop up any unmet demand for new residential development. That's because they don't have the same municipal services the city does, and until they can find a Shoal Lake-sized water source, they never will. A lot of people do want and can afford a big lot, exurban type of development (see the area south of Wilkes Avenue, for example), but the typical buyer in Bridgwater Lakes Forest Run probably doesn't want to maintain a septic tank.