Worldwide Demographics

[JManc]

Houston is just shy of 30% foreign born.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Post-1970 Northern stagnation is really about the lack of inmigration, not outmigration. Basically the end of the Great Migration and the rise of the Sunbelt. Air conditioning, improved conditions for blacks in South and the postwar military-industrial investments in Sunbelt America.

Immigration levels were low indeed, but many people did leave Detroit. Natural growth in the US was at 7.5% between 1970-1980.

Metro Detroit, with zero net migration, natural growth alone would make it to go from 4,431,390 to about 4,770,000. Instead it fell to 4,353,365. Over 400k people have left the region in the 1970's, almost 10% of them.

Rust Belt might have stopped most of the exodus, but they have a different problem now: many of those metro areas are already posting negative natural growth. Stopping domestic migration is not enough: immigration must be very robust and always growing, to offset both domestic migration and negative natural growth.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Foreign migration has also passed over Rust Belt cities in favor of the Sun Belt and Northeast. Detroit's foreign-born population peaked in the 1930s and pretty much never rebounded* after that. NYC also had a peak in the 1930s but it eventually rebounded after a plateau in the 1970s. Since 2000 NYC has been above its previous 1930 peak. The 1930s peak in foreign-born population in NYC and Detroit coincided with a nationwide peak in foreign-born population.

Agreed, but I'd use metro numbers. I bet 90%+ of immigrants to Metro Detroit aren't headed to the city proper.

Detroit actually isn't a horrible immigration laggard. It attracts far more proportionally than Cleveland, Cincy, St. Louis, Indy, Pittsburgh and the like. Obviously the huge Arab population, and the auto industry is thick with foreign/expat engineers.

But certainly nothing like the legacy coastal cities or the Sunbelt. And nowhere nearly enough to make up for the reversal of the Great Migration.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Agreed, but I'd use metro numbers. I bet 90%+ of immigrants to Metro Detroit aren't headed to the city proper.

Detroit actually isn't a horrible immigration laggard. It attracts far more proportionally than Cleveland, Cincy, St. Louis, Indy, Pittsburgh and the like. Obviously the huge Arab population, and the auto industry is thick with foreign/expat engineers.

But certainly nothing like the legacy coastal cities or the Sunbelt. And nowhere nearly enough to make up for the reversal of the Great Migration.

Foreign-born population in the tri-county today is about the same size as Detroit's foreign-born in 1930. However, the total tri-county population is roughly 3x the population of Detroit in 1930.

Immigrants are going to the Detroit area, yes, but not in numbers sufficient to grow the population. The city of Detroit's immigrant population is a bellwether of the issue for the metro since immigrants tend to settle into major cities before moving out into suburbs.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Foreign-born population in the tri-county today is about the same size as Detroit's foreign-born in 1930. However, the total tri-county population is roughly 3x the population of Detroit in 1930.

Well, yeah. Metropolitan America in 1930 was very heavily white Catholic and immigrant or second generation. The WASPs were already in deep retreat. Detroit, with its then-incredible wages and innovation, was a huge immigrant draw. It was Silicon Valley.

[Yuri]

Austria released its 2024 estimates and Vienna is once again above 2 million people for the first time in almost 120 years! 2,006,134 in 2024 and 2,083,630 in 1910. Its nadir was in 1990 at 1,492,636. Massive growth since then.

[Yuri]

Japan and South Korea released their 2023 births and deaths numbers.

Japan after experiencing a recovery on its fertility rates during after the mid-2000's, is once again falling and reached its all time low 1.26 child/per women. The previous low was back in 2005, at the same number. South Korea keeps plunging deeper and deeper. It reached 0.72 (!!!) child/per women in 2023, once again renewing the world record, for the fourth year straight. The impact of that down the road will certainly be massive.

A comparative table between both countries and how low TFR impacted their birth and death curves and how South Korea is transitioning much faster than Japan:

1960

Japan
Births: 1,606,041 Deaths: 706,599 Surplus: 899,442
South Korea
Births: 1,080,535 Deaths: 285,350 Surplus: 795,185

1970

Japan
Births: 1,934,239 Deaths: 712,962 Surplus: 1,221,277
South Korea
Births: 1,006,645 Deaths: 258,589 Surplus: 748,056

1980

Japan
Births: 1,576,889 Deaths: 722,801 Surplus: 854,088
South Korea
Births: 862,835 Deaths: 277,284 Surplus: 585,551

1990

Japan
Births: 1,221,585 Deaths: 820,305 Surplus: 401,280
South Korea
Births: 649,738 Deaths: 241,616 Surplus: 408,122

2000

Japan
Births: 1,190,547 Deaths: 961,653 Surplus: 228,894
South Korea
Births: 640,089 Deaths: 248,740 Surplus: 391,349

2010

Japan
Births: 1,071,305 Deaths: 1,197,014 Surplus: -125,709
South Korea
Births: 470,171 Deaths: 255,405 Surplus: 214,766

2020

Japan
Births: 840,832 Deaths: 1,372,648 Surplus: -531,816
South Korea
Births: 272,337 Deaths: 304,948 Surplus: −32,611

2023

Japan
Births: 758,631 Deaths: 1,590,503 Surplus: -831,872
South Korea
Births: 229,971 Deaths: 352,721 Surplus: -122,750

- Japan fell below replacement level (less than 2 children/per women) in 1973, one of the first countries in the world to get there (Germany was in 1970). South Korea fell in 1984, but it had a much higher fertility level than Japan before that (6 children per women vs 2 by 1960), giving it a much younger population structure.

- In 1983 births still outnumbered deaths by 2:1 in Japan; that only happened in South Korea in 2002, 19 years later.

- Deaths outnumbered births in Japan for the first time in 2005; in South Korea in 2020, 15 years later.

- The next milestone is deaths outnumbering births by 2:1. That happened in Japan in 2022; in South Korea, if the current trends are kept, that might happen in 2025 or 2026, merely 3-4 years after Japan. That shows how fast ultra-low fertility rates are eroding South Korean demographics.

- Another thing showing how South Korea is doing much poorer than Japan is the number of births. While Japan registered 1,190,547 births in 2000 and fell to 758,631 in 2023, the fall in South Korea was much sharper: from 640,089 to 229,971. Three times less births in merely 23 years whereas in Japan it fell by "only" 1/3.

[Yuri]

BBC brought a long article on that today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

I usually don't like foreign views on other countries as they're usually very biased, but if this article is a fair representation of reality, it's virtually impossible to have children in South Korea these days. BTW, the article states Seoul TFR fell to 0.55(!!!).

[tech12]

Originally Posted by Yuri

BBC brought a long article on that today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

I usually don't like foreign views on other countries as they're usually very biased,

What's your hobby again? Aren't you constantly making posts about nations that you aren't from?

How about those 468 posts you've made in the Ukraine war thread, that are almost entirely comprised of disinformation, for example? Or how about the covid-19 disinformation you were spreading? You even got suspended because you were posting so much unhinged garbage. Yet you accuse others of being biased lol

Originally Posted by Yuri

but if this article is a fair representation of reality, it's virtually impossible to have children in South Korea these days.

And look at that, you continue to spread misinformation. Nowhere in that article does it say or imply that it's "virtually impossible" for South Korean women to have children. The word "impossible" is used once in the article, by one woman, in reference to herself.

There is someone here, in this thread, with a consistently biased point of view towards foreign nations, and it's you. Just saying. Thanks for the article though.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Yuri

BBC brought a long article on that today: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68402139

I usually don't like foreign views on other countries as they're usually very biased, but if this article is a fair representation of reality, it's virtually impossible to have children in South Korea these days. BTW, the article states Seoul TFR fell to 0.55(!!!).

For someone who consumes a lot of information about what is going on around the world, it actually doesn't happen that often to me that I think "boy am I lucky to be living where I am".

Funnily enough, this article instinctively sparked this type of reaction in me.

I read it and thought "I'm lucky to be living where I am and my kids are lucky to be growing up where they are".

Weird.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by tech12

(...)

I have absolutely no idea who you are. You seem very distressed though. Do you need help?

Originally Posted by Acajack

For someone who consumes a lot of information about what is going on around the world, it actually doesn't happen that often to me that I think "boy am I lucky to be living where I am".

Funnily enough, this article instinctively sparked this type of reaction in me.

I read it and thought "I'm lucky to be living where I am and my kids are lucky to be growing up where they are".

Weird.

Same here. I felt sorry for all the people there. It seems they're trapped in an impossible situation. The first girl, for instance, seems a type that would be very progressive here and hence laidback, but instead she works like crazy and everybody around does the same.

I don't have children and I don't want to and the cons are obviously a factor for me. But the cons for them are massive. And the whole oppresive lifestyle and social expectations. That's why I'm now surprised that they don't have even fewer births there.

[Acajack]

I've always seen developed Asian countries as pretty good models of functional societies.

Obviously this isn't the first time I've heard of these problems they have but the degree to which they seem to be moving closer to brink is quite depressing.

[Yuri]

Cuba is through the largest exodus since the revolution

According to the article, quoting US official figures, 313,000 Cubans got into the US in 2022 and another 153,000 in 2023.

I wasn't aware of this surge. There is even a Wikipedia article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E...gration_crisis

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I wasn't aware of this surge. There is even a Wikipedia article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E...gration_crisis

You aren't aware of this surge bc these migrants aren't "bad". There has been a mass movement of Cubans in recent years, especially via Mexico. But you certainly won't hear any of this in the "migrant invasion" articles. They are bigtime right wing voters.

Their favorable treatment has started an industry where Latins are trained in Mexico on Cuban accents. Lots of "fake" Cubans with U.S. residency now. Also there are many Cuban professionals who fled to Mexico at some point in the last 60 years, and their progeny has special refugee status despite being Mexican.

[Yuri]

BBC:

China: Marriages rise for the first time in nine years​

Some good demographics news coming from China. It's a 12.4% growth over 2022. Let's see if this is an actual trend stopping them to follow the Korean total collapse.

[Yuri]

First 2024 births and deaths figures for the US:

Births Jan-2023: 299,468
Deaths Jan-2023: 288,710

Births Jan-2024: 289,994
Deaths Jan-2024: 289,143

Increase Jan-2023: +10,758
Increase Jan-2024: +851

2023 was the first year Covid-free and the US posted a 522,000 natural increase, the biggest since 2019 (+893k). Births however, reached a new low in 2023 at 3,588,013 for a fertility rate of only 1.60, the lowest ever recorded.

We only have a month, but the it seems the downward trend on births will remain. It seems births will be around 3.5 million and deaths will resume their natural increase for the first time since the end of Covid, to somewhere around 3.1 million. That will give us a 400k natural increase in 2024, still higher than Covid times 230k (2020), 200k (2021) and 387k (2022) but heading to zero growth around 2027-2028 and negative afterwards.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

You aren't aware of this surge bc these migrants aren't "bad". There has been a mass movement of Cubans in recent years, especially via Mexico. But you certainly won't hear any of this in the "migrant invasion" articles. They are bigtime right wing voters.

Their favorable treatment has started an industry where Latins are trained in Mexico on Cuban accents. Lots of "fake" Cubans with U.S. residency now. Also there are many Cuban professionals who fled to Mexico at some point in the last 60 years, and their progeny has special refugee status despite being Mexican.

This. Republicans want Cubans to have special immigration status because when they become citizens they vote Republican. I expect the same will become true of Venezuelans.

And do you want to know why? It's simply because the word for communism in Cuba is "socialismo" and conservatives in the US have successfully argued to Cubans that Democrats who believe in more "social" programs are thus communists. It's frankly ridiculous. You tell a Cuban Cuba is communist and not socialist and they literally tell you to your face you're wrong porque la palabra es SOCIALISMO.

So here we are. The Cubans in South Florida are training Venezuelans to have the same take so they enamor themselves with the same bigots that are okay with Cuban only Latin immigration.