Downtown COVID Bounceback -- SLC thrives, San Fran struggles

[Doady]

Mississauga is mostly a mall, a college and a few condo towers. There hasn't been a new office building constructed in 20 years, and they even demolished one building a few years ago right before COVID, so I am not sure that counts as a "comeback".

[Skintreesnail]

Originally Posted by Gantz

I think you can have pedestrian levels at roughly 78% and still have lower cellphone pings, since there are less people working in those office towers.

You know, I saw this study in another forum and dismissed it because it didn't jive with what i saw around town and the ccd reports for Philadelphia, but this point you make might be the driver. People who were sitting in offices with their cell phones pre-pandemic, which doesn't necessarily correlate with high pedestrian counts or even a healthy downtown. It makes me think the definition of what a healthy downtown is needs to change. I mean some cities on that list might just be higher because they have companies that are forcing employees back to the office. I know most of the people at my office never left other than to go home at the end of the day, which doesn't really add much to the vitality of a downtown in my opinion. For Philadelphia at least it seems like a strong residential presence in center city kept things going.

[mhays]

Office workers don't have to be outside to make a big difference. Just to, lunch, and from is a lot, particularly since many people buy something on each of those occasions. If 5,000 people work in a building and 4,000 are on the sidewalks, with 2,000 at least buying coffee on a typical day, that's something. (I'm talking a downtown here, not the sort of place where 4,000 would drive.)

Even if they just get takeout lunches that's still supporting a business.

[Skintreesnail]

I don't really mean lets get rid of office workers though, I just meant that maybe we overestimate their impact on downtown vitality. At least in cities with large residential population like Philadelphia. I'm sure that the having the extra population of office workers would be better (although it really seemed that everyone at my office was going to the cafeteria rather than grabbing something to go from a local restaurant). For a report to say that center city is less than half recovered from the pandemic just makes me think something is wrong with the data. It makes much more sense to me to say center city is less than half way recovered in terms of office vitality.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Skintreesnail

I don't really mean lets get rid of office workers though, I just meant that maybe we overestimate their impact on downtown vitality. At least in cities with large residential population like Philadelphia. I'm sure that the having the extra population of office workers would be better (although it really seemed that everyone at my office was going to the cafeteria rather than grabbing something to go from a local restaurant). For a report to say that center city is less than half recovered from the pandemic just makes me think something is wrong with the data. It makes much more sense to me to say center city is less than half way recovered in terms of office vitality.

The data approximated human presence by using cell phone tower pings. I think it's a pretty good way to measure what it was attempting to measure.

[jtown,man]

Office vitality is key to a downtown (certainly a downtown that was built for offices...aka not Miami).

Tourism, residents coming downtown for X or Y, and downtown residents make up the rest of the equation.

But offices and downtown residents are the core of this equation because they are constants. Tourists and out-of-downtown residents are much more tied to particular weather and seasons.

[Trae]

I think the water has found its level for the most part at this point. with people coming into the office half as much (if that), we see most major cities in that range for downtown activity recovery, so makes sense. also I wonder if other downtowns like San Diego and Honolulu are from people vacationing while doing WFH a little on the side. we will never see that M-F hub of activity in downtowns anymore.

Originally Posted by mhays

Office workers don't have to be outside to make a big difference. Just to, lunch, and from is a lot, particularly since many people buy something on each of those occasions. If 5,000 people work in a building and 4,000 are on the sidewalks, with 2,000 at least buying coffee on a typical day, that's something. (I'm talking a downtown here, not the sort of place where 4,000 would drive.)

Even if they just get takeout lunches that's still supporting a business.

we recently had a department in-person meeting at my job at a coworking space in dtla. we all went out for lunch together, and man it was very weird for us to be the only group of people walking to a lunch spot. we weren't the only people out, but we stood out. rewind 3 1/2 years and we would have been one of several groups trying to grab a bite to eat. of course no wait time at the restaurant either during a prime lunch hour. honestly got kinda sad because the activity was cool, always something going on or to see, but it is what it is. I'll take the current setup.

[Segun]

Even before the pandemic, there was something off about downtown SF to me. It was like the "make you want to stay" energy was off. I couldn't understand it at the time, because on paper and in infrastructure, it's great. I think the biggest thing that downtown San Francisco is missing is a great public space. Not to be insulting, but that little towne square they call Union Square ain't doing it. The civic area is all right, but it's like a monumental boulevard in the Midwest, and it don't go nowhere. The presidio and fisherman's wharf are too far for tourists to walk.

[homebucket]

^ There’s Yerba Buena Gardens, the entire Embarcadero, St Mary’s Square, Portsmouth Square, Washington Square Park, Salesforce Park, and tons of POPOS and other small parks. If there’s one thing that isn’t lacking in SF it’s public open space.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Trae

we will never see that M-F hub of activity in downtowns anymore.

I don't think that's remotely clear. People tend to overestimate the permanence of big events and underestimate the degree that humans return to established historical norms.

Also, we're about a year into normalcy, if that. We probably can't make any definitive conclusions until maybe 2035 or so.

[homebucket]

I’m also not sure what you mean by the civic area goes nowhere. I’m assuming you’re referring to the Civic Center where City Hall is? That’s basically in the heart of the City where if you walk 5-15 min in any 360 direction you’ll come across bustling and interesting neighborhoods like Nob Hill, Tenderloin, Mid-Market, SoMa, the Mission, the Castro, Haight, Hayes Valley, Alamo Square, Fillmore, Japantown, Pac Heights, and Polk Gulch.

[Segun]

Further elaborating, there isn't a public space dramatic enough to break the monotony of downtown San Francisco. It feels like all the intersections look alike.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Segun

Further elaborating, there isn't a public space dramatic enough to break the monotony of downtown San Francisco. It feels like all the intersections look alike.

If you're referring to the FiDi specifically, then... maybe... to outsiders? But even so, I don't think that's an observation unique to SF's CBD.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't think that's remotely clear. People tend to overestimate the permanence of big events and underestimate the degree that humans return to established historical norms.

Also, we're about a year into normalcy, if that. We probably can't make any definitive conclusions until maybe 2035 or so.

Agreed. Never say never

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by Doady

Mississauga is mostly a mall, a college and a few condo towers. There hasn't been a new office building constructed in 20 years, and they even demolished one building a few years ago right before COVID, so I am not sure that counts as a "comeback".

I googled it...
the footprint and the parking.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by homebucket

If you're referring to the FiDi specifically, then... maybe... to outsiders? But even so, I don't think that's an observation unique to SF's CBD.

Yeah, downtown is more or less as it is in most cities; mostly office towers and minimal street activity after office hours. It was like that pre-Covid.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Trae

I think the water has found its level for the most part at this point. with people coming into the office half as much (if that), we see most major cities in that range for downtown activity recovery, so makes sense. also I wonder if other downtowns like San Diego and Honolulu are from people vacationing while doing WFH a little on the side. we will never see that M-F hub of activity in downtowns anymore.

We've still got a long way to go. If companies do need smaller footprints, I'm not sure that is an automatic negative for downtowns. I think the real area of concern under that trend are suburban office complexes. Those were already struggling before the pandemic, and this trend would probably be the death knell for many/most of them.

If companies do continue the trend of shedding office space, I think they'll likely trade up for location. It'll basically be the opposite of the mid-20th century trend of corporate America trading conveniently located offices in the city for large suburban campuses where a bunch of workers could be together at once.