Canada's population estimates: Record-high population growth in 2022

[Nite]

Canada grew by a million people last year for the first time and will reach 40 million people in 84 days from now.
the Maritime provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI) continue to be the fastest growing part of the country but growth is strong everywhere.

Record-high population growth in the year 2022
Canada's population was estimated at 39,566,248 on January 1, 2023, after a record population growth of 1,050,110 people from January 1, 2022, to January 1, 2023.

This marks the first 12-month period in Canada's history where population grew by over 1 million people, and the highest annual population growth rate (+2.7%) on record since that seen for 1957 (+3.3%). This previous record population growth rate in 1957 was related to the high number of births during the post-war baby boom and the high immigration of refugees following the Hungarian Revolution of 1956.

In 2022, the reason behind Canada's record-high population growth was somewhat different, since international migration accounted for nearly all growth recorded (95.9%).

Canada is by far leading the G7 countries for population growth in 2022, as it has been the case for many years.

Compared with 2021 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development country growth rates, the latest available for all members, Canada would rank first with a population growth of 2.7% for the year 2022. Moreover, according to the most recent figures for other countries (as of 2021), Canada's population growth rate of 2.7% in 2022 would put it among the top 20 in the world. Almost all countries with a higher pace of population growth were in Africa.

If it stayed constant in years to come, such a rate of population growth would lead to the Canadian population doubling in about 26 years.

The increase seen in international migration is related to efforts by the Government of Canada to ease labour shortages in key sectors of the economy. High job vacancies and labour shortages are occurring in a context where population aging has accelerated in Canada and the unemployment rate remains near record low. A rise in the number of permanent and temporary immigrants could also represent additional challenges for some regions of the country related to housing, infrastructure and transportation, and service delivery to the population.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...30322f-eng.htm



As of Mar 23 with another quarter of growth, this is the current population of Canada based on the real-time population clock by statistic Canada
lets see it reach 40 million before Canada


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

[Innsertnamehere]

At that pace, Ontario is on track to pass New York State by 2032.

Of course that rate won't be sustained for a decade.. but still.

It also looks like Canada has passed California by a solid margin in population now and appears as though it will keep that lead for the long term now. Crazy to think as California had a significant lead for quite a while.

[bnk]

Impressed every Canadian provinces gained save one. I didn't think the Maritime provinces were going to be leading it too.

[Nite]

US Growth for comparison



it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Nite

it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

Well Canada doesn't have a Sunbelt. Outside of the little sliver of SW British Columbia, Ontario has the best weather and most temperate climates in Canada, while states bordering Ontario have similar, or even more temperate, climates are thought of by Americans as having shitty weather. Not much sense comparing the two.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by edale

Well Canada doesn't have a Sunbelt. Outside of the little sliver of SW British Columbia, Ontario has the best weather and most temperate climates in Canada, while states bordering Ontario have similar, or even more temperate, climates are thought of by Americans as having shitty weather. Not much sense comparing the two.

There's a part of NS that is more temperate than anywhere in Ontario while the equivalent of the coldest parts of NS is in Southern Ontario. The winter temperatures are warmer, winters are way brighter, and the summers are great with better air quality. Moncton NB is the "weather twin" of roughly Peterborough while Halifax (the city, not the airport) is about on par with Windsor or Niagara in the winter for mean temperatures but with a bit less continental influence. I've lived in both Ontario (GTA) and NS and I would rather live in the climate in central or southern NS, although the gap is minor.

This is not meant as a "vs" or cheerleader thing. But basically NS and ON are roughly on par while traditionally NS was described as being worse than ON in basically every way, while NB was thought of as being maybe like Northern Ontario (not trying to make Northern Ont sound bad but a place like Saint John does not have Sudbury style winters and it is about 400 miles away from Boston, not far up in the Canadian north). The story with the economy and jobs and understanding of "where the Maritimes are" (thought to be ultra remote but no worse than most regions of Canada) is not really all that different. You won't get Toronto CEO type jobs in Moncton, sure, but Moncton is no worse really than almost all Ontario towns. I think this disconnect is part of why migration to the Maritimes suddenly became so much more popular and surprised people. It doesn't surprise me at all. It made no sense for a long time, and the perception was out of step with reality.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Nite

US Growth for comparison



it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

Ontario is wide open for immigration The midwest isn't where immigrants go in the USA they go mostly to California, Wa, Houston and NYC

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Ontario is wide open for immigration The midwest isn't where immigrants go in the USA they go mostly to California, Wa, Houston and NYC

But... New York is supposedly the state with the worst population loss of that group.

[Velvet_Highground]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Ontario is wide open for immigration The midwest isn't where immigrants go in the USA they go mostly to California, Wa, Houston and NYC

Good for Canada I know there’s over 800k Ukrainian refugees & I just heard that unlike here in the US there’s an easy path to stay long term.

As for a continued population drop in Michigan it’s not out of the question but the state beat census estimates last time, starting from losing big numbers in 2010 & 2011 the numbers turned around and the state & Detroit Metro area were net gainers in 2020. If they are correct I do wonder if perhaps there’s a political dimension to it Covid certainly pushed growth negative during the pandemic but I wonder if the lies about the election being stolen have caused right wing conservatives to leave places like Michigan & Pennsylvania?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Nite

it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

Not really. Canada is growing entirely due to immigration, and Ontario is, by far, the immigration center. The bordering U.S. states obviously aren't alternative destinations for Canadian newcomers.

Also, it's doubtful that Ontario is bordering any state losing population. Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York all grew in the last official Census count.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by Nite

it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

They're stealing our people!

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by SFBruin

They're stealing our people!

Canada might be getting even more people with the tech industry layoffs. Many people on H1b visas attempt to migrate to Canada because they can get a quicker path to permanent residency than in the U.S.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Nite

it's funny that Ontario borders all these states losing population while it's added half a million people.

If Ontario was a state, it would be 5th in population. Ontario passed Pennsylvania and Illinois a few years ago, and if trends continue, it may pass New York within 10-15 years.

Only California, Texas, and Florida would be ahead of Ontario.

[Chef]

Is growth for growth's sake good for a country? Does it improve the lives of the people who live in it? It is definitely good for business because they have a larger market and more workers. But does that benefit people? I think it gets murky.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

If Ontario was a state, it would be 5th in population. Ontario passed Pennsylvania and Illinois a few years ago, and if trends continue, it may pass New York within 10-15 years.

Only California, Texas, and Florida would be ahead of Ontario.

If Ontario were a state, it would probably be like 20th in population, at most. Maybe a Wisconsin. Toronto would probably be smaller than Buffalo. Ontario was relatively lightly settled when the American Midwest was settled and industrialized.

Ontario's relatively large population is a result of being the dominant Anglosphere geography with generally the nation's best climate/land and the most liberal immigration policies of any first world nation. If, in an alternate history, Ontario were a U.S. state, Ontario would have major issues with climate and location.

[ssiguy]

Actually our "slowest growing" province is Quebec at a still very decent clip of 1.7%. YK/NWT/NU are territories.

The Maritimes are growing quickly for the first time in a century due to, mostly Ontarians, fleeing the high cost of housing, hectic lifestyle, and grinding traffic for a more peaceful way of life.

Many BCers are doing the same and heading to Alberta due to it having the highest wages and lowest taxes in the country while BC's cost of living is astronomical. One can buy 4 house in Calgary and 5 in Edmonton for the price of 1 in Vancouver. For the first time in a decade more Canadians are leaving BC than moving to it due almost exclusively because of high rental rate and bizarre real estate prices even outside metro Vancouver.

[Innsertnamehere]

The big story since the pandemic in Canadian population growth is how the maritimes have quickly gone from decades of anemic growth and large amounts of population loss in much of the region to quickly becoming the fastest growing part of the country.

Affordable real estate without the prairie climate seems to be the selling feature, particularly if you have a remote job.

[Innsertnamehere]

between 2010 and 2020 they all grew, yes - but not since the pandemic.

A lot of those pandemic influences are temporary though, just like this 1-year jump of a million people for Canada. It'll likely "slow down" to around 500,000 by 2024 as the jump of moves following the pandemic wains.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

between 2010 and 2020 they all grew, yes - but not since the pandemic.

A lot of those pandemic influences are temporary though, just like this 1-year jump of a million people for Canada. It'll likely "slow down" to around 500,000 by 2024 as the jump of moves following the pandemic wains.

The US's annual estimates tend to be inaccurate for non-Sun Belt areas of the country.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

between 2010 and 2020 they all grew, yes - but not since the pandemic.

We won't know until after 2030. Right now, we have no idea how these states will fare.

There's no obvious reason they would fare much different in 2020-2030 relative to 2010-2020, however. One would assume continued slow growth. The annual estimates aren't great for determining the official decennial trends.