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  #1  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 3:18 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Seattle grew by the largest % among the top 50 US cities 2021-22

Seattle's 2.4% was the largest among the top 50 US cities from 7/1/21 to 7/1/22, based on Census estimates. This feels like the obvious "back to the city" after Covid, plus the continued growth we've been seeing on the ground.

Fort Worth, Phoenix, and San Antonio grew by larger numbers.

Seattle Times.

Census.
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  #2  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 4:48 PM
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Usual caveat about Census estimates, but encouraging signs for the urban rebound.

For instance, San Francisco was effectively flat:

April 2020 Census: 873,959
July 2020 estimate: 870,393
2021 estimate: 811,253 (-6.8% yoy)
2022 estimate: 808,437 (-0.3% yoy)

Manhattan, Seattle, DC all grew again, Boston dropped by less than 4k versus 17k in 2021, so on.

Hoping for more of a turn around for Chicago or Philadelphia and the outer NYC boroughs remain puzzling (lingering immigration drops from the pandemic?) but again, Census estimates come with a gigantic grain of salt.

Edit: Also, Port St. Lucie is now a top 100 city in the US -- and if these trends continue, next year we'll have a newcomer to the top 10, SSP's favorite city. Jacksonville!
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Last edited by ChiSoxRox; May 18, 2023 at 5:16 PM.
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  #3  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 4:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post

Hoping for more of a turn around for Chicago or Philadelphia, but again, Census estimates come with a gigantic grain of salt.
The CB has been swinging and missing on estimates for Chicago for 30 fucking years now.

And I don't mean just getting the number wrong, I'm talking about completely opposite directionalities.

The CB's estimate algorithms seem to not have the first fucking clue what to do with big old mostly-stagnant legacy cities, so they just make up a number, despite that fact that it's always wrong.

Anyone who actually wants to know the population situation in Chicago will unfortunately have to wait 8 more years because anything between then and now will be worthless garbage, as it has been for the past 3 decades.
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  #4  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 5:18 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Maybe the counts are also off.

PS from now on I'm going to replace "directions" with directionalities."
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  #5  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 5:23 PM
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I have no idea what's happening with the Census counts. Either the annual estimates are garbage, or the decennial counts are garbage, bc they aren't remotely close, especially for older, more urban parts of the U.S.

Also, how does one reconcile the annual estimates with the prevailing narratives. During peak Covid, the narrative was that rich people were in the Hamptons and Palm Beach, and digital natives were relocating to cheaper, second tier places. Then we find that cheap urban places like Baltimore had some of the worst population losses and the Hamptons was flat. Even Miami, where supposedly half the planet had moved to, to escape allegedly heavy-handed Covid response, had population loss.

Later on, the prevailing narrative was that urban unrest, unrestrained liberalism and remote work would bleed urban centers of the mobile wealthy, leaving cities with the poorest of the poor. But the biggest population losses appear to be in the poorest jurisdictions, and the best population numbers appear to be in wealthier jurisdictions.

Also, SF was supposedly the poster child for worst post-pandemic urban outcomes. Tech oriented elites scattered, remote work emptied downtown, and wacky liberalism supposedly allowed bums to go buck-wild. Yet Seattle is the closest analogue to SF (West Coast techie, white-Asian, affluent, heavy remote, outdoorsy, silly expensive, very liberal, lots of homeless) and appears to have the best Census outcomes. What gives?
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  #6  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 5:37 PM
TempleGuy1000 TempleGuy1000 is offline
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Harris County, Texas (32,694); Maricopa County, Arizona (28,051); Travis County, Texas (27,927); Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania (24,701); and Los Angeles County, California (21,738), were the five counties with the largest numeric gains in housing units between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022.
Lol. Philadelphia's real estate tax changes caused such a ridiculous anomaly in development. The units per square mile compared to the other ones isn't close.

Also I wouldn't count out Philly and NYC exactly just because of this graph and the last year:


We're coming out a once-in-a-century (hopefully) pandemic. There's irregular pent up demand for moving and other live events. Also Portland shrinking has to be a surprise, no? SF gets beat-up all the time in the news these days, but I feel like Portland may actually be suffering more.

Last edited by TempleGuy1000; May 18, 2023 at 5:53 PM.
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  #7  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 6:21 PM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Originally Posted by TempleGuy1000 View Post
Lol. Philadelphia's real estate tax changes caused such a ridiculous anomaly in development. The units per square mile compared to the other ones isn't close.

Also I wouldn't count out Philly and NYC exactly just because of this graph and the last year:


We're coming out a once-in-a-century (hopefully) pandemic. There's irregular pent up demand for moving and other live events. Also Portland shrinking has to be a surprise, no? SF gets beat-up all the time in the news these days, but I feel like Portland may actually be suffering more.
I've also heard Seattle is suffering, especially downtown, so the bounce back is a surprise. The only plausible explanation I can think of is that even with Covid and remote jobs in vogue, Seattle has a huge tech industry, which we know was hiring like mad up until mid 2022 (perhaps?), so many of those tech jobs and people still migrated to the city. Portland's tech sector is not nearly as significant as Seattle's.
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  #8  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 6:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TempleGuy1000 View Post
We're coming out a once-in-a-century (hopefully) pandemic. There's irregular pent up demand for moving and other live events. Also Portland shrinking has to be a surprise, no? SF gets beat-up all the time in the news these days, but I feel like Portland may actually be suffering more.
I've been encountering a number of people that have returned to NYC after spending time living in Portland. The stories I'm hearing about that place sound much worse than what I've heard about San Francisco.

When I was in SF last year it didn't seem like the hell on earth landscape that certain types have depicted it to be. There were far fewer people downtown than typical and a lot more empty storefronts than normal, but that's been true about every city. This was June 2022, and NYC definitely felt more "recovered" than what I was seeing in SF at the time, but even now NYC isn't fully back to pre-pandemic normal.
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  #9  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 6:39 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
I've also heard Seattle is suffering, especially downtown, so the bounce back is a surprise. The only plausible explanation I can think of is that even with Covid and remote jobs in vogue, Seattle has a huge tech industry, which we know was hiring like mad up until mid 2022 (perhaps?), so many of those tech jobs and people still migrated to the city. Portland's tech sector is not nearly as significant as Seattle's.
Downtown's office districts and main retail district have struggled, but they've started to turn around. Other parts of town are mostly thriving, even while street disorder remains an issue. There are cranes everywhere.
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  #10  
Old Posted May 18, 2023, 10:38 PM
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Portlands downtown is bad news. Its like an economic dirty bomb went off. The east side of the city and urban NW are thriving tho. Ppl are returning to the office but now their office might be in the suburbs. Were going to end up with a rustbelt downtown but all the other fun Oregon stuff people like is doing fine. WFH killed the cbd, the women running the county homeless bureau passed out 25,000 tents to transients with public money and Oregon voters chose to legalize hard drugs. The results are obvious. Even with all that crap policy, wfh is the biggest elephant in the room. Highly unionized employees in multiple sectors are refusing to return to the office and some companies simply closed up shop or left the cbd. That being said, there is still a palpable energy. Normal Portlanders seem a little edgier than usual but most people are still friendly.
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Last edited by pdxtex; May 18, 2023 at 11:16 PM.
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  #11  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 12:54 AM
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pdxtex, are you still thinking of looking into and visiting Buffalo?
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  #12  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 12:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I have no idea what's happening with the Census counts. Either the annual estimates are garbage, or the decennial counts are garbage
I'd put more faith in decennial census counts.
Do you guys need a team from Statistics Canada to come down to Washington and show the US Census Bureau how to properly conduct things?
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  #13  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 1:03 AM
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pdxtex, are you still thinking of looking into and visiting Buffalo?
My Keyser Sose scheme is a work in progress! Buffalo is still very interesting to me but no visits soon. Im expected in Michigan in August so thats as close as I'm going to get for awhile. Cheap and fun is still my m.o. My sphere of influence is currently eyeing Tennessee. My GFs parents just bought a plot of land and her brother moved from Portland to Knoxville in December. If the whole family relocates I'm not sure what will happen.
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  #14  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 2:35 AM
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My general feeling is that any long term demographic trends apparent within the last 30 years will probably continue in that direction for the foreseeable future. Young people still want dense, exciting cities and many Americans still want to live in a pretty location or someplace that is affordable and safe. The national politically climate is experiencing some trends but trends eventually die and things go back to boring old normal. There are few cities I would outright refuse to live in and that mostly revolves around a lack a bike infrastructure.
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  #15  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 12:50 PM
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ChiSoxRox ChiSoxRox is offline
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I'd put more faith in decennial census counts.
Do you guys need a team from Statistics Canada to come down to Washington and show the US Census Bureau how to properly conduct things?
We honestly might. The Census estimate methodology seems to undercount anywhere that's not turning fields into new subdivisions. Going back to the 2019 estimates versus the Census, NYC was undercounted by almost 10% -- over 600k people!
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  #16  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 2:58 PM
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I wonder if rents prices would be a better indicator of population growth.
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  #17  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 4:39 PM
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I wonder if rents prices would be a better indicator of population growth.
I think housing production and vacancy are the most useful. With a slight adjustment for births and deaths.

Rents can be influenced by taxes, laws and general economic conditions, but people have to live somewhere, and if more houses and units are being built, then there are probably more people around.



Just going by housing, Chicago after 2010 would have recorded more downtown construction, declining demolitions, and a falling birth rate. And the safest bet based on housing production would have been a stable population.
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  #18  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 4:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
The CB has been swinging and missing on estimates for Chicago for 30 fucking years now.

And I don't mean just getting the number wrong, I'm talking about completely opposite directionalities.

The CB's estimate algorithms seem to not have the first fucking clue what to do with big old mostly-stagnant legacy cities, so they just make up a number, despite that fact that it's always wrong.

Anyone who actually wants to know the population situation in Chicago will unfortunately have to wait 8 more years because anything between then and now will be worthless garbage, as it has been for the past 3 decades.
Absolutely correct, Detroit's mayor Duggan called the Census Bureaus estimating process a "Clown Show and I agree. The CB actually would be better off doing nothing till the actual 10 year counts than misleading Americans with guestimations.
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  #19  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 5:34 PM
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Do they still go door to door? It seems like you could just use something like vacancy rates or utility hookups to estimate the population. There must be some other identification record available.
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  #20  
Old Posted May 19, 2023, 8:47 PM
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https://apnews.com/article/census-ur...ced6f87f04e63f
Quote:
US metros are growing, many reversing 2021 drops, new estimates show

By MIKE SCHNEIDER
yesterday

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — The flight from urban areas that took place during the first year of the pandemic either reversed or slowed in its second year, as last year metropolitan areas in Texas and Florida boomed and declines in New York and Los Angeles were halved, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

During the first full year of the pandemic in 2021, more than half of the 20 largest U.S. metro areas lost residents, and all U.S. metro areas grew by just 0.1%, as fear of the virus sent residents fleeing the most densely-populated urban areas and the popularity of remote work allowed people to live far from their workplaces.

By comparison, only eight of the 20 largest metro areas decreased in 2022, and the growth rate for all U.S. metros was 0.4%. Among the largest U.S. metros that had gains in 2022 after experiencing losses in 2021 were Washington, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Seattle, Minneapolis and San Diego, according to 2022 population estimates released Thursday by the Census Bureau.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area grew the most among U.S. metros, jumping by six-digit figures for a second consecutive year, as it gained another 170,000 residents last year. Metro Dallas-Fort Worth’s 7.9 million residents made it the nation’s fourth-largest metropolitan area, behind only New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, all of which lost population last year but with much smaller losses compared to the first year of the pandemic.
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