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  #8141  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 9:32 AM
CaliNative CaliNative is offline
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Percent of population that have had covid

Are there any reliable estimates on the percent of people who have had covid in various countries, including those who may have been asymptomatic or just had mild symptoms? I guess the only way to tell for sure would be antibody tests. Have these been done in a randomized way anywhere, to get a scientific estimate of past infection? I read at least a year ago that the town of Bolinas in NorCal was going to test residents for antibodies, but haven't heard any results. If the past infection rate is for example 25% of the population, and a high percentage of the population has been vaccinated, herd immunity or something approaching it might be near. Of course some of the vaccinated would also have had mild/assym. cases, so they'd have to take that into account. And unfortunately herd immunity for one variant strain may at not extend to all strains. To get a statistically valid estimate of past infections, maybe only 1% or even 0.1% of the population would have to be sampled for antibodies. Can the variant strain be identified in the antibody test? That would be useful. And children should be tested as well, since I suspect that asymptomatic children may be repositories of the virus that can be spread to other people. To what extent are unvaccinated children carrying the virus but no symptoms driving the spread? Finally, are pets like cats and dogs vectors for the virus? It is well known that dogs and especially cats can get covid, probably from infected humans. Can they also spread it to humans? It seems likely.

Last edited by CaliNative; Oct 25, 2021 at 9:57 AM.
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  #8142  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 10:02 AM
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^ I think there are estimates (based on random population sampling for antibodies as you say). I doubt any of them are remotely accurate. There’s bound to be selection bias and they missed the first 3-6 months of the spread.
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  #8143  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 12:21 PM
Kngkyle Kngkyle is offline
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I've been in London for the past few days and life here seems pretty normal. Maybe 20% of people are wearing masks but it's not really required (or if it is, not enforced) anywhere. Definitely more normal than Chicago or New York.

Their international entry requirement is pretty stupid though. You don't have to show a negative test but you do have to show that you have an appointment to get tested within 2 days of arriving. Although the only party that checked any of this documentation was the airline. Americans entering the UK can go through the automated kiosks now (a perk of Brexit?) so no UK official validated anything.
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  #8144  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
I've been in London for the past few days and life here seems pretty normal. Maybe 20% of people are wearing masks but it's not really required (or if it is, not enforced) anywhere. Definitely more normal than Chicago or New York.

Their international entry requirement is pretty stupid though. You don't have to show a negative test but you do have to show that you have an appointment to get tested within 2 days of arriving. Although the only party that checked any of this documentation was the airline. Americans entering the UK can go through the automated kiosks now (a perk of Brexit?) so no UK official validated anything.
Yes, London is pretty normal. Unfortunately it’s the end of October so being in London is going to suck for the next 4-5 months regardless.

As for the Covid tests, airlines have to pass the information to the government. But yes, it does seem strange that they dropped the pre-flight test requirement and kept the day 2 test requirement, until you realize the purpose of the requirement.

If you get a test done at a pharmacy in the US or Europe before flying to the UK, none of the politically connected diagnostic test providers in the UK make any money. The mandatory purchase of a day 2 test kit keeps money flowing to these friends of government. You don’t have to actually take the test by the way (no one will follow up), you just have to buy it.
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  #8145  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 1:07 PM
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Things in São Paulo are pretty much normal. Everything running as usual: bars, restaurants, shops even nightclubs. Masks, however, are still prevalent on streets. I don't think people will drop them any time soon.

80.4% of state population got at least one shot.
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  #8146  
Old Posted Oct 25, 2021, 2:51 PM
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Other than a noticeable lack of foreign tourists and lighter traffic, NYC is back to normal. There are still a lot of empty storefronts in Manhattan but that will be the last thing to get back to normal, for obvious reasons. People still continue to wear face masks in places that are not required to check vaccination status. Almost no one wears masks in places that require vaccination status to be checked.
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  #8147  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 9:52 AM
Kngkyle Kngkyle is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Other than a noticeable lack of foreign tourists and lighter traffic, NYC is back to normal. There are still a lot of empty storefronts in Manhattan but that will be the last thing to get back to normal, for obvious reasons. People still continue to wear face masks in places that are not required to check vaccination status. Almost no one wears masks in places that require vaccination status to be checked.
Mandatory vaccine checks to get into any venue and a large % of people wearing masks outdoors is not back to normal, IMO. A friend of mine who lives in Jersey City went over to Brooklyn last weekend and said she got in trouble for not wearing a mask while walking in a park. Police or some authority was there making sure everyone was wearing masks and handing them out if the person didn't have. I find it a little hard to believe but it is Brooklyn...
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  #8148  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Mandatory vaccine checks to get into any venue and a large % of people wearing masks outdoors is not back to normal, IMO. A friend of mine who lives in Jersey City went over to Brooklyn last weekend and said she got in trouble for not wearing a mask while walking in a park. Police or some authority was there making sure everyone was wearing masks and handing them out if the person didn't have. I find it a little hard to believe but it is Brooklyn...
In a park? That’s absurd. Not even the Spanish are doing that, and this is a country where the boomers grew up under an actual fascist government.

I suspect thought that it wasn’t police or any real authority but rather some self-appointed group of mask Nazis…
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  #8149  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 1:32 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ You can't teach common sense to people who act like sheep in a herd
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  #8150  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:16 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Kngkyle View Post
Mandatory vaccine checks to get into any venue and a large % of people wearing masks outdoors is not back to normal, IMO. A friend of mine who lives in Jersey City went over to Brooklyn last weekend and said she got in trouble for not wearing a mask while walking in a park. Police or some authority was there making sure everyone was wearing masks and handing them out if the person didn't have. I find it a little hard to believe but it is Brooklyn...
Sounds like a bs story. Masks are not mandatory anywhere in NYS, except public transit and schools. Almost nobody wears a mask outdoors now.
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  #8151  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:16 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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LOL, that story is bull. There's no mask-wearing requirement in NYC parks, or anywhere outdoors. There wasn't even such a requirement during the height of the pandemic. No one is wearing a mask outdoors, and that's been true for a long time.

And I don't understand why requiring a vax in some indoor venues isn't evidence of back to normal. It's the existence of such requirements that have gotten us back to normal (except in places that don't care about sick & dead folks bc they're trying to troll the libs or whatever). Showing an app on your phone for the privilege of dining in close quarters indoors is hardly an affront to civil rights, and it reassures the worry-warts who think they'll die unless they hole up forever.
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  #8152  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:34 PM
woodrow woodrow is offline
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When I was in NY a couple weeks ago, I saw probably 5-10% of people in mask outside, which, whatever. We were screamed at by some nutcase for not wearing masks outside - "IF YOU WERE IN THE CHERNOBYL ZONE AND NO ONE WAS WEARING A HAZMAT SUIT, YOU WOULD JUST FOLLOW THEM AND THEN YOU WOULD GET HOME AND HAVE LEUKEMIA!!!" - then we saw him in line for the show we were going to. I love NY.
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  #8153  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:36 PM
woodrow woodrow is offline
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Can I also say the they NYC CovidSafe app is really nice. Very well designed. No fumbling for ID's or vax card. Simple to use.
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  #8154  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:39 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodrow View Post
When I was in NY a couple weeks ago, I saw probably 5-10% of people in mask outside, which, whatever. We were screamed at by some nutcase for not wearing masks outside - "IF YOU WERE IN THE CHERNOBYL ZONE AND NO ONE WAS WEARING A HAZMAT SUIT, YOU WOULD JUST FOLLOW THEM AND THEN YOU WOULD GET HOME AND HAVE LEUKEMIA!!!" - then we saw him in line for the show we were going to. I love NY.

most people haven't worn masks outside. and i would bet many who do are like me who initially forget to take them off when they come outside of someplace or like your hands are full carrying something.
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  #8155  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:40 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
And I don't understand why requiring a vax in some indoor venues isn't evidence of back to normal. It's the existence of such requirements that have gotten us back to normal (except in places that don't care about sick & dead folks bc they're trying to troll the libs or whatever). Showing an app on your phone for the privilege of dining in close quarters indoors is hardly an affront to civil rights, and it reassures the worry-warts who think they'll die unless they hole up forever.
It's also probably no coincidence that NYC's transmission rate has remained substantially lower than just about every other urban area in the U.S., even though all local pandemic mandates, besides vaccine mandates, were lifted months ago.
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  #8156  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:41 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Originally Posted by woodrow View Post
Can I also say the they NYC CovidSafe app is really nice. Very well designed. No fumbling for ID's or vax card. Simple to use.
no it isnt if you have an old iphone as it doesnt work!
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  #8157  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:42 PM
homebucket homebucket is online now
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Yeah that story sounds like a lie, either by Kngkyle or his friend. Even in California at the height of the pandemic, the poster child for the strictest US lockdowns, I have never heard of anyone getting in trouble by the police for not wearing a mask at the park.
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  #8158  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:42 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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no it isnt if you have an old iphone as it doesnt work!
That's not the app's fault...
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  #8159  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:45 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
That's not the app's fault...
actually yes it is. entirely. that kind of attitude is like not accepting cash. it can be easily fixed, but it hasnt been.

i just got the new iphone 13 so that won't be an issue for me as soon as i fire it up, but it remains an issue for many old phone operating systems.
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  #8160  
Old Posted Oct 26, 2021, 3:51 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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actually yes it is. entirely. that kind of attitude is like not accepting cash. it can be easily fixed, but it hasnt been.
Really, it's not, lol. It's most likely Apple's fault: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55317202
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