Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere
Part of the D trend in affluent suburban counties is increased diversity, the electorate isn't identical as it was a decade or two ago.
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yep.
here are how the 2020 presidential voting patterns in the chicago MSA were generally correlated with the % of NH-white people in a given county.
the lower the proportion of NH-white people, the more heavily the county tended to go for biden, and vice-versa, generally speaking.
Lake and Dupage punching well above the average owes to their very high proportion of the college-educated professional class.
Dekalb overperforms because the county is dominated by its namesake city, which is home to northern illinois university, so it's the college town effect.
County: 2020 pop. (% of MSA) ---- NH-white % (biden/trump margin)
Cook: 5,275,541 (54.8%) ------------- 40.5% (
+50.3)
Lake (IN): 498,700 (5.2%) ------------ 50.4% (
+15.1)
Kane: 516,522 (5.4%) ----------------- 54.7% (
+14.4)
Lake (IL): 714,342 (7.4%) ------------ 57.2% (
+24.1)
Will: 696,355 (7.2%) ------------------ 60.1% (
+8.4)
Dupage: 932,877 (9.7%) ------------- 63.4% (
+18.1)
Kendall: 131,869 (1.4%) -------------- 64.2% (
+5.7)
Dekalb: 100,420 (1.0%) -------------- 71.0% (
+5.7)
Kenosha: 169,151 (1.8%) ------------ 72.1% (
+3.2)
Mchenry: 310,229 (3.2%) ------------ 76.9% (
+2.5)
Porter: 173,215 (1.8%) --------------- 79.1% (
+6.1)
Grundy: 52,533 (0.5%) --------------- 82.8% (
+25.8)
Newton: 13,830 (0.1%) --------------- 87.2% (
+52.1)
Jasper: 32,918 (0.3%) ---------------- 88.4% (
+49.1)
MSA Total: 9,618,502 ------------- 50.2% (+32.3)
and for the record, those last 3 super red counties on the list above are just cornbelt counties that really have no business whatsoever being in chicago's MSA, save for a handful of crazy super-commuters that push them just above the threshold.