Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW)

[RomanR27]

Thanks for the pics YowFlier - good to hear load was healthy, under three weeks until the A350 arrives!

[Rhb]

Ottawa airport passenger numbers are out for February 2024.https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-...ssenger-volume

Maybe March will hit the 400.000 passenger volume total.?

[RomanR27]

There is a 789 on YOW-YVR tomorrow (Tuesday), it has been scheduled for a while. Last chance to see two 789s on the ground as it's not scheduled again until after the AF swap to the A350.

YVR-YOW leg is packed, full in Economy, 16/21 PY seats and 28/29 in J. YOW-YVR is definitely more sparse, seat map looks like lots of room in Y, only 6/21 in PY but still 25/30 in J.

There's also a one off upgauge scheduled for Thursday April 11.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Rhb

Ottawa airport passenger numbers are out for February 2024.https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-...ssenger-volume

Maybe March will hit the 400.000 passenger volume total.?

I'd say there's a good shot at breaking 400K for the first time since February 2020. I'd say there's also a good shot at breaking the all-time transborder monthly record of 86,974 set back in March 2012.

Applying February 2024's daily transborder pax average gets March to 82,681 and would be the 3rd highest ever. However, that doesn't count the 12 extra roundtrips PD added to Florida in March, nor the fact March LFs should be higher than February's.

If the 24 extra sections on PD have an 85% LF, that would get March to 85,532. It'll be close depending on the LFs to the likes of BOS, EWR, IAD & ORD.

Here's the full year-over-year comparison for February:

Sector / Feb-23 / Feb-24 / % Change
Dom: 201,170 / 208,972 / +0.5%
TB: 48,965 / 77,347 / +62.6%
Int'l: 52,325 / 68,242 / +31.6%
TTL: 302,460 / 354,561 / +15.4%

Sector / YTD 2023 / YTD 2024 / % Change
Dom: 405,312 / 407,138 / +0.5%
TB: 91,495 / 148,809 / +62.6%
Int'l: 106,380 / 140,032 / +31.6%
TTL: 603,187 / 695,979 / +15.4% - currently on pace for 4.87 million based on YTD growth rate or 4.25M for the YTD daily pax count, which is always lower at the start of the year

February % of traffic recovered vs 2019
Sector / Traffic % recovered February 2024 vs February 2019 / Traffic % recovered YTD 2024 vs YTD 2019
Dom: 75.4% / 74.0% - a complete laggard = a huge chunk of Toronto day tripper traffic has disappeared - 46/day in 2019 vs 27/day in 2024
TB: 113.4% / 110.4%
Int'l: 114.5% / 113.4%
TTL: 87.6% / 86.1%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2022
Dom: 3,204,725 / +18.3%
TB: 633,447 / +232.8%
Int'l: 350,534 / +248.3%
TTL: 4,188,706 / +39.6%

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

I'd say there's a good shot at breaking 400K for the first time since February 2020. I'd say there's also a good shot at breaking the all-time transborder monthly record of 86,974 set back in March 2012.

Applying February 2024's daily transborder pax average gets March to 82,681 and would be the 3rd highest ever. However, that doesn't count the 12 extra roundtrips PD added to Florida in March, nor the fact March LFs should be higher than February's.

If the 24 extra sections on PD have an 85% LF, that would get March to 85,532. It'll be close depending on the LFs to the likes of BOS, EWR, IAD & ORD.

Here's the full year-over-year comparison for February:

Sector / Feb-23 / Feb-24 / % Change
Dom: 201,170 / 208,972 / +0.5%
TB: 48,965 / 77,347 / +62.6%
Int'l: 52,325 / 68,242 / +31.6%
TTL: 302,460 / 354,561 / +15.4%

Sector / YTD 2023 / YTD 2024 / % Change
Dom: 405,312 / 407,138 / +0.5%
TB: 91,495 / 148,809 / +62.6%
Int'l: 106,380 / 140,032 / +31.6%
TTL: 603,187 / 695,979 / +15.4% - currently on pace for 4.87 million based on YTD growth rate or 4.25M for the YTD daily pax count, which is always lower at the start of the year

February % of traffic recovered vs 2019
Sector / Traffic % recovered February 2024 vs February 2019 / Traffic % recovered YTD 2024 vs YTD 2019
Dom: 75.4% / 74.0% - a complete laggard = a huge chunk of Toronto day tripper traffic has disappeared - 46/day in 2019 vs 27/day in 2024
TB: 113.4% / 110.4%
Int'l: 114.5% / 113.4%
TTL: 87.6% / 86.1%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2022
Dom: 3,204,725 / +18.3%
TB: 633,447 / +232.8%
Int'l: 350,534 / +248.3%
TTL: 4,188,706 / +39.6%

Thanks for the work you put into this forum.

I have a couple of questions, first if we have 100% load factor would we have 425,000 passenger in February. And second if you subtract day trippers to TO how close do you think we are to pre Covid. This also does not account for population growth since 2019.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Rhb

Thanks for the work you put into this forum.

I have a couple of questions, first if we have 100% load factor would we have 425,000 passenger in February. And second if you subtract day trippers to TO how close do you think we are to pre Covid. This also does not account for population growth since 2019.

That's tough to say. I suppose someone could go back through FR24 or flightaware to track every single scheduled flight to get the total seat count for the month.

As for Toronto traffic vs the rest of domestic, that's also tough to gauge, but pre-pandemic, I bet it was around 3,500-4,000 O&D in an average day. I bet it's half that amount now.

I should have also mentioned that February 2024's transborder figure was the highest ever for February while international was the 2nd highest ever behind only 70,254 way back in 2012.

Also, I made an error with the Ottawa-Toronto daily departure count in February 2024. It's 29/day on weekdays. It'll drop to 26/day over the summer with the WS route suspension and AC cutting 2 daily YYZ frequencies.

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

That's tough to say. I suppose someone could go back through FR24 or flightaware to track every single scheduled flight to get the total seat count for the month.

As for Toronto traffic vs the rest of domestic, that's also tough to gauge, but pre-pandemic, I bet it was around 3,500-4,000 O&D in an average day. I bet it's half that amount now.

I should have also mentioned that February 2024's transborder figure was the highest ever for February while international was the 2nd highest ever behind only 70,254 way back in 2012.

Also, I made an error with the Ottawa-Toronto daily departure count in February 2024. It's 29/day on weekdays. It'll drop to 26/day over the summer with the WS route suspension and AC cutting 2 daily YYZ frequencies.

Yes, that’s to much work to determine exactly what 100% load factor would be.
Just looking for a general or vague total number. What would be a general load factor across the board. 80-85% percent for this past month. I could extrapolate a number from that. 82.5% of 430,000 available seats comes in around 354,000 seats.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 72 (plus F8 to CUN from yesterday that departed at 0930 today), including 11 sun flights (plus the F8 CUN flight that was supposed to depart at 1830 yesterday)

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 1

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Rhb

Yes, that’s to much work to determine exactly what 100% load factor would be.
Just looking for a general or vague total number. What would be a general load factor across the board. 80-85% percent for this past month. I could extrapolate a number from that. 82.5% of 430,000 available seats comes in around 354,000 seats.

Well here's how you could get a rough idea - do the aircraft type x the # flights on a weekday in March x 31 days x 2 to account for arrivals.

Here's the rough by airline departures:

AC:
223s: 137 seats x 11 departures
321s: 190 seats x 1
7M8s 169 seats x 2
Rouge 319s: 136 seats x 2 avg/day
DH4s: 78 seats x 12
CR9s: 76 seats x 1
CRJ: 50 seats x 2

WS:
Equipment and frequency varies but it's all 737, so use say 150 seats as the average between 73Gs, 738s & 7M8s x 4.43 avg departures/day

PD:
DH4s: 78 seats x 17.5 (rough average factoring in reduced weekend flying)
295s: 132 seats x 9

UA:
E70: 70 seats x 1
E75: 76 seats x 4
CR5: 50 seats x 2

5T:
Equipment varies but say 150 seats/flight & 1.14 departures/day

WG:
They're averaging about 4 departures/day @ 189 seats on 738s/7M8s

TS:
They're averaging about 1.5 departures/day @ 198 seats on 321s

AF:
0.714 departures/day @ 279 seats on 789s

F8:
They're averaging in March roughly 2 departures/day @ 189 seats on 7M8s

Let us know what you come up with.

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Well here's how you could get a rough idea - do the aircraft type x the # flights on a weekday in March x 31 days x 2 to account for arrivals.

Here's the rough by airline departures:

AC:
223s: 137 seats x 11 departures
321s: 190 seats x 1
7M8s 169 seats x 2
Rouge 319s: 136 seats x 2 avg/day
DH4s: 78 seats x 12
CR9s: 76 seats x 1
CRJ: 50 seats x 2

WS:
Equipment and frequency varies but it's all 737, so use say 150 seats as the average between 73Gs, 738s & 7M8s x 4.43 avg departures/day

PD:
DH4s: 78 seats x 17.5 (rough average factoring in reduced weekend flying)
295s: 132 seats x 9

UA:
E70: 70 seats x 1
E75: 76 seats x 4
CR5: 50 seats x 2

5T:
Equipment varies but say 150 seats/flight & 1.14 departures/day

WG:
They're averaging about 4 departures/day @ 189 seats on 738s/7M8s

TS:
They're averaging about 1.5 departures/day @ 198 seats on 321s

AF:
0.714 departures/day @ 279 seats on 789s

F8:
They're averaging in March roughly 2 departures/day @ 189 seats on 7M8s

Let us know what you come up with.

Ok, thanks for that. I don’t think I need to known that badly. Just curious.
But, if the airport Authority or Ottawa business Journal suggests we will get to pre Covid numbers in 2024 or soon afterward we’ll need more capacity. As it is now I wonder if the airlines are even offering 5.1 million available seats in YOW this calendar year.

[Rhb]

I am aware that Porter Airlines will significantly increase capacity this summer moving forward at YOW. But I noticed on planespotters they took possession of 5 frames in December and none since that time. Production issues at embraer
Here’s the link.https://www.planespotters.net/airlin...irlines-Canada

[MountainView]

I was looking at going to MSP in late August and noticed that UA had 3x to ORD on the E75.

So not sure if they are increasing that route in late summer or not, but it appeared 3x on the days I was searching for travel.

That would bring UA to 9x daily from YOW - three to each of EWR, IAD, & ORD.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Rhb

Ok, thanks for that. I don’t think I need to known that badly. Just curious.
But, if the airport Authority or Ottawa business Journal suggests we will get to pre Covid numbers in 2024 or soon afterward we’ll need more capacity. As it is now I wonder if the airlines are even offering 5.1 million available seats in YOW this calendar year.

Haha so given I'd already gone that far, using Excel it only took about 5 minutes to get the rough idea of the total YOW available seat count for March. I get 555,693. While I factored in reduced non-sun route weekend flying, I didn't account for daily cancellations so I'm probably still 10-20K on the high side for the estimate.

420,000 pax in March would equate to a 75.6% seat factor at 555,693 and 77.7% with 15K seats lost to cancellations for the month (can't use LF as it's measuring all routes). The airport's load factor would be much higher which adds available seat kilometers into the equation. Given long routes like AC to YVR, WS to YYC, anything but F8 to Florida and AF to CDG traditionally have high occupancy they'd probably pump up the airport's overall LF into the low 80s.

75.5% of seats occupied seems reasonable in that 5T's loads are probably in the 30-33% range in winter and if PD's DH4 routes, AC's YUL runs and F8's SFB flights (which clearly aren't performing well) are in the 62-65%, range it would add up.

420K for March would still be an impressive 20.6% growth rate vs 2023, while still well below 2019's figure of 462,959.

Obviously we'll find out in a few weeks what the actual number ends up being.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 74, including 10 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 1

[Rhb]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Haha so given I'd already gone that far, using Excel it only took about 5 minutes to get the rough idea of the total YOW available seat count for March. I get 555,693. While I factored in reduced non-sun route weekend flying, I didn't account for daily cancellations so I'm probably still 10-20K on the high side for the estimate.

420,000 pax in March would equate to a 75.6% seat factor at 555,693 and 77.7% with 15K seats lost to cancellations for the month (can't use LF as it's measuring all routes). The airport's load factor would be much higher which adds available seat kilometers into the equation. Given long routes like AC to YVR, WS to YYC, anything but F8 to Florida and AF to CDG traditionally have high occupancy they'd probably pump up the airport's overall LF into the low 80s.

75.5% of seats occupied seems reasonable in that 5T's loads are probably in the 30-33% range in winter and if PD's DH4 routes, AC's YUL runs and F8's SFB flights (which clearly aren't performing well) are in the 62-65%, range it would add up.

420K for March would still be an impressive 20.6% growth rate vs 2023, while still well below 2019's figure of 462,959.

Obviously we'll find out in a few weeks what the actual number ends up being.

Ok, thanks again for your perspective on this matter. I look forward to YOW passenger growth numbers for rest of this year.

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by MountainView

I was looking at going to MSP in late August and noticed that UA had 3x to ORD on the E75.

So not sure if they are increasing that route in late summer or not, but it appeared 3x on the days I was searching for travel.

That would bring UA to 9x daily from YOW - three to each of EWR, IAD, & ORD.

Good catch. Looks like it's only effective August 19 until September 25. Returns to 2x after that before going back to 3x again on October 28th onwards (except Sundays).

Additional flight is ORD 0725-1033 YOW, and YOW 1125-1242 ORD.

I was also poking around the schedules and noticed YOW-YYC on AC has been switched to a 320 from a 7M8 in May.

I see YOW-YYZ is up to 10x in the summer with the additional frequency from a CR9 (I think it was 9x before). YOW-YUL is 7x (can't remember if it was always like that).

I also noticed that WS YOW-YVR service ends after Labour Day, and their YOW-YWG is loaded into next winter at this point as well.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Good catch. Looks like it's only effective August 19 until September 25. Returns to 2x after that before going back to 3x again on October 28th onwards (except Sundays).

Additional flight is ORD 0725-1033 YOW, and YOW 1125-1242 ORD.

I was also poking around the schedules and noticed YOW-YYC on AC has been switched to a 320 from a 7M8 in May.

I see YOW-YYZ is up to 10x in the summer with the additional frequency from a CR9 (I think it was 9x before). YOW-YUL is 7x (can't remember if it was always like that).

I also noticed that WS YOW-YVR service ends after Labour Day, and their YOW-YWG is loaded into next winter at this point as well.

YOW-YYZ on AC is currently 11x (didn't realize 4 of those are E75s). Goes up to 12x for April with 1x 321, 1x 320 & 10x 223. Then in May it drops to 10x and 9x weekends. That CR9 is actually a cut from a 319, but I see it goes up to a 7M8 in late May. The summer schedule has departures at 0920 and 1000, plus YTZ at 0940, and then later in the day there's a 3 hour gap from 1400 to 1700 between YYZ departures with a 1440 YTZ.

Looks like the last 223 scheduled until after Labour Day is 16JUN24 until 04SEP24. Lots of 319 action over the summer.

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 74, including 10 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 0

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 78, including 13 sun flights + 1 hockey charter

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 2

[Dominion301]

Today’s departure count: 66, including 13 sun flights

Today’s cancellation count (so far): 3

There’s also 2 repositioning flights. A PD to YTZ & a WS to YKF - maybe the latter was a diversion? Toronto got a snowstorm.