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  #5901  
Old Posted Apr 12, 2021, 6:45 PM
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ILUVSAT ILUVSAT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bossabreezes View Post
The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.
I wouldn't worry about Austin. It's going to do just fine. I think I read last month that 45% of new Austinites came from either the Bay Area, New York or Chicago (55% coming from intra-state). Maybe the New Yorkers moving there don't mind living in cookie-cutter neighborhoods?!? Maybe that is the appeal?!? I don't know. But, they're moving. Austin is just not right for everyone. And that is a-okay.

With regard to Austin's prices...value is based on what someone is willing to pay. Just like you are only worth what someone is willing to pay you. Supply and demand. And, there is quite a gap in Austin right now. As more housing comes online, prices will stabilize. There is currently no concern of a bubble within the real estate professional establishment.

Additionally, Austin has it own topographical (and ecological/environmental) challenges - especially in its entire western frontier (from northwest Austin metro to southwest Austin metro). And the east side is not exactly flat either.

All-in-all, I too hope that the city can fast-track the entitlement process for a myriad of housing projects in the pipeline.



*A few interesting recent data points - since a comparison to Nashville was broached:
Nashville: seeing about ½ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 2.4 months of inventory.
Austin: seeing about ¼ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 0.4 months of inventory.

Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver are expected to be the hottest markets in 2021. While New York, San Fransisco and Los Angeles are expected to be the weakest.

Last edited by ILUVSAT; Apr 13, 2021 at 8:19 PM.
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  #5902  
Old Posted Apr 14, 2021, 5:40 AM
AviationGuy AviationGuy is offline
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I don't have the data, but it seems like the steep terrain in the hills and valleys of southwest through northwest Austin haven't kept growth at bay in those areas. Many newcomers want to live in those close-in scenic areas if they can afford it. But they also want to live in the central part, which is so incredibly expensive that it's just ridiculous. I think someone mentioned already that there must be plenty of families that are perfectly happy in the cookie cutter burbs, which are still relatively reasonable. I know people who are moving east to the burbs in the former farmlands. That wouldn't be for me, but for many, it's just fine.
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  #5903  
Old Posted Yesterday, 4:18 AM
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  #5904  
Old Posted Yesterday, 12:43 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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I've seen this issue (urban housing affordability) in Austin and many of it's peer cities.

Its actually cheaper to live in urban Chicago than urban Austin or Nashville. It simply is. Chicago has way more inventory and less population growth. Austin and Nashville have a very small stock of urban housing stock which has caused what limited stock they do have to increase in value to insane levels.

Add in the need of a car in Austin and Nashville, and a place like Chicago (or Philadelphia) become increasingly attractive.
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  #5905  
Old Posted Yesterday, 1:19 PM
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kingkirbythe.... kingkirbythe.... is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
I've seen this issue (urban housing affordability) in Austin and many of it's peer cities.

Its actually cheaper to live in urban Chicago than urban Austin or Nashville. It simply is. Chicago has way more inventory and less population growth. Austin and Nashville have a very small stock of urban housing stock which has caused what limited stock they do have to increase in value to insane levels.

Add in the need of a car in Austin and Nashville, and a place like Chicago (or Philadelphia) become increasingly attractive.
Yes. I lived in Austin for 10 years, and then I lived in Chicago for 10 years. Chicago was much cheaper in live in. Not having to have to have a car really makes a difference. I rented in both cities and Chicago was cheaper there too.
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  #5906  
Old Posted Yesterday, 3:37 PM
H2O H2O is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingkirbythe.... View Post
Yes. I lived in Austin for 10 years, and then I lived in Chicago for 10 years. Chicago was much cheaper in live in. Not having to have to have a car really makes a difference. I rented in both cities and Chicago was cheaper there too.
And yet Austin and Nashville are the places that are growing. Apparently more people value other qualities over affordability. I think Chicago is a great city, so don't take this as a bash, but there are a lot of cities in this country that are more affordable than Austin and Nashville because they are not growing. There is a correlation.
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  #5907  
Old Posted Yesterday, 6:04 PM
bossabreezes bossabreezes is offline
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Chicago is pretty inexpensive as far as big cities go, though.

Austin seems more expensive than NYC on average to me though, based off of my calculations on necessary things to live. Maybe someone from the Bay Area, which is generally more expensive than NYC can justify a move to Austin, but I wouldn't be able to if it were purely based off of economics.

Also, from what I've seen, salaries seem to be more or less 20% less in Austin for tech industry jobs. One of my best friends works at Google and turned down a relo opportunity because it came with a 20% pay cut. Strange how that works, considering NYC is actually more affordable than Austin for a single person, but perception says otherwise.

That being said, Austin makes a lot of sense for some people obviously since its exploding with population growth. I tend to think a lot of the people moving to Austin are relatively unestablished in their careers and see it as an Eldorado for opportunity, which is awesome.

New York isn't really like that anymore, it seems that entry level jobs are requiring a minimum of 5 years experience. Same in SF. In this regard, I think it is great that there is an intermediate between NY and SF where younger people actually have a shot at getting a decent tech job.

In regards to Nashville, I think they are probably facing a bigger bubble than Austin is, because their economy is largely inflated and not robust in the ways that Austin's economy is. So if I were to bet on Austin or Nashville, I would bet on Austin. That being said, there will definitely be a price correction at some point in Austin housing, probably in the next 3 years.
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