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  #301  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2023, 1:25 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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2020 election result:

Montgomery MD 79-19 D
Westchester NY 68-31 D
Fairfield CT 63-36 D
Montgomery PA 62-36 D
Lake IL 61-37 D
Bergen NJ 57-41 D
Nassau NY 54-45 D
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  #302  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2023, 1:34 AM
mrnyc mrnyc is online now
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just a request, but with all the obvious hardcore googling going on here it wouldn’t hurt to post the links.
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  #303  
Old Posted Jan 30, 2023, 1:36 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Recall reading somewhere on Twitter (can't find it) that kinda described the difference: white ethnic boomers who grew up on Long Island and went to elite colleges moved to Westchester, while white ethnic boomers who grew up in the outer boroughs moved to LI.
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  #304  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 2:51 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Westchester is basically the original affluent, educated professional U.S. suburbia.

Politically and culturally, it trends more or less like its equivalents (Montgomery County, MD, Lake County, IL, Fairfield County, CT, Bergen County, NJ would probably be closest political/cultural equivalents). Lawyers, bankers, journalists, and other traditional, establishment jobs. Westchester will have more literary and arts employment, due to Manhattan's differing economic mix. The Rivertowns, in particular, have a stereotypical Upper West Side-type employment mix, with musicians, psychologists and the like.

Nassau looks very similar, on paper, but there's a very New York-specific ethnic white distinction. And forget about literary and arts employment. South Shore of Nassau has a lot of highly paid contractors and other small business types and people who work with their hands. Often Trump country, or Trump-leaning.
Nassau is nothing like those counties anymore. It's banking hard right and has an anti-intellectual streak. I think it's actually a stand alone county in the country in this regard. It might be the only very high income suburban county in the country moving right.
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  #305  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 3:01 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Nassau is nothing like those counties anymore. It's banking hard right and has an anti-intellectual streak. I think it's actually a stand alone county in the country in this regard. It might be the only very high income suburban county in the country moving right.
Basically all the NYC area counties with a significant white ethnic cohort moved right in the 2022 election. I'm still highly skeptical this is a permanent thing, however. There are some local nuances, especially in '22, and it's unclear that Trumpism = GOP.

Nassau voted for Biden in '20. It could very easily vote Dem in '24. I agree it's an outlier for affluent counties, but "hard right" is an exaggeration. The entire county elected GOP apparatus is moderate, except for Santos. The North Shore will almost certainly vote blue in '24.

South Shore is voting increasingly hard right, but a lot of this is Orthodox expansion. The Five Towns Orthodox population is expanding east.
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  #306  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 5:04 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Basically all the NYC area counties with a significant white ethnic cohort moved right in the 2022 election. I'm still highly skeptical this is a permanent thing, however. There are some local nuances, especially in '22, and it's unclear that Trumpism = GOP.
A shameful distinction. This was not true in other major metros.

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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Nassau voted for Biden in '20. It could very easily vote Dem in '24. I agree it's an outlier for affluent counties, but "hard right" is an exaggeration.
It's the only first tier county (i.e. touching its major city) that is moving right that I can think of anywhere in the country of importance. It shouldn't even be close. Just the fact that your wording is so careful is a measure of how far right the county has moved idealogically esp in comparison to peer counties. I stand by my characterization.
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  #307  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 5:48 PM
FromSD FromSD is offline
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We're used to thinking of New York as the bluest of blue states, but it is also a state that reelected George Pataki as governor and Alphonse D'Amato as US Senator multiple times. So power is not out of reach for Republicans in New York, which the 2022 congressional races proved.

I don't know why Kathy Hochul did as badly as she did in the governor's race, and I don't know how much the late-breaking congressional maps hurt the Democrats. Democratic Congressman Sean Maloney blamed his upset loss on Hochul's weak performance and to the influence of the NYC tabloids like the New York Post. New York City is a fairly safe big city but crime stories get huge coverage in the tabloids in a way that helps Republicans use public safety as a wedge issue. Why this issue works better for the GOP in the New York area than it does in other regions with worse crime problems is unclear to me.

I sometimes wonder whether the Democrats are banking too much on the swing of the suburbs to the left. Obviously Trump-exhaustion-syndrome helped Democrats in many suburban areas in 2018 especially. But once he leaves the political scene (whenever that happens), will some suburbanites drift back to the Republicans? Would De Santis, as conservative as he is, do as badly in the suburbs as Trump did?

Orange County outside of LA is another suburban county that went hard for the Democrats in 2018 and then shifted part way back to the GOP in 2020 and 2022. The Republicans lost 4 congressional seats in Orange County in 2018, but flipped 2 of them back in 2020. The Democrats held on to the last 2 flips in 2022, but not by healthy margins. Orange County, like Nassau County, is proof that the Democrats can't take the suburbs for granted.
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  #308  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 5:58 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by FromSD View Post
New York City is a fairly safe big city but crime stories get huge coverage in the tabloids in a way that helps Republicans use public safety as a wedge issue. Why this issue works better for the GOP in the New York area than it does in other regions with worse crime problems is unclear to me.
This was likely a huge factor on Long Island. It isn't remotely based in reality, but much of the GOP surge was attributed to nonstop pre-election tabloid fodder re. crime.

Crime rates are dropping, among the lowest in the country, and have returned to their pre-pandemic rates. Crime rates actually plummeted in the second half of last year, so it should have been perfect timing for the election. But it doesn't matter. Perception matters, and the GOP has been brilliant at creating an alternate reality.

The NY Post, in particular, has been key at creating this bizarre reality. Any crime with a racial angle, any crime with an attractive female victim, or any crime from a repeat offender, will be headline news for weeks, and tied to elected Dems, no matter the circumstances. The people who only follow Fox, the local hate radio, and the Post, are brainwashed.

And the local Dem apparatus was comically incompetent. I mean, this is why we have George Santos in Congress. In one of the wealthiest, most educated districts in the country. What a mess.
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  #309  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 6:04 PM
edale edale is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
South Shore is voting increasingly hard right, but a lot of this is Orthodox expansion. The Five Towns Orthodox population is expanding east.
Why does it matter if the right shift is happening due to Orthodox Jews vs other groups? Are they not 'real' conservatives, even though they vote as a solid right bloc? You don't see this same 'yeah but...' disclaimers about other groups. Ohio is painted as a deep red backwater (which it is in many places) but you don't hear people being like well yes it's red, but a lot of this is just expansion of the Appalachian population.

It feels like a way of trying to downplay the conservative leanings in the NYC area...like eh, it's not really conservative in Nassau County, just those damn Orthodox Jews..."
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  #310  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 6:09 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Why does it matter if the right shift is happening due to Orthodox Jews vs other groups? Are they not 'real' conservatives, even though they vote as a solid right bloc?
It matters bc the voting patterns aren't the same. Orthodox Jews have voted 90%+ Dem in recent elections. They still vote mostly Dem for local electeds. They largely vote as a group, based on rabbinical guidance. Their biggest issue is free reign for their religious schuls, a non-issue in national GOP politics.

So yes, a red vote is a red vote, like a blue vote is a blue vote, but not all voters are the same. It's worth examining whether a GOP voter is from the Trump wing, or the traditional country club wing, or from a religious minority, as their motivations can be different.

And in the context of comparing affluent, educated suburban counties, it's worth mentioning, as such a voting bloc doesn't exist in any of these other suburban counties.
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  #311  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 6:14 PM
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Originally Posted by FromSD View Post
We're used to thinking of New York as the bluest of blue states, but it is also a state that reelected George Pataki as governor and Alphonse D'Amato as US Senator multiple times. So power is not out of reach for Republicans in New York, which the 2022 congressional races proved.
The blueness of New York (State and City) is actually a fairly recent phenomenon. Politicians on both sides rarely threaded far from the center which it it flopped back and forth all the time.
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  #312  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 6:54 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
The blueness of New York (State and City) is actually a fairly recent phenomenon. Politicians on both sides rarely threaded far from the center which it it flopped back and forth all the time.
They still don't really stray that far from the center. They've mostly just coalesced slightly to the left of it.
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  #313  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 7:36 PM
edale edale is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
It matters bc the voting patterns aren't the same. Orthodox Jews have voted 90%+ Dem in recent elections. They still vote mostly Dem for local electeds. They largely vote as a group, based on rabbinical guidance. Their biggest issue is free reign for their religious schuls, a non-issue in national GOP politics.

So yes, a red vote is a red vote, like a blue vote is a blue vote, but not all voters are the same. It's worth examining whether a GOP voter is from the Trump wing, or the traditional country club wing, or from a religious minority, as their motivations can be different.

And in the context of comparing affluent, educated suburban counties, it's worth mentioning, as such a voting bloc doesn't exist in any of these other suburban counties.
I mean, you can make similar arguments about other groups, too. Union laborers used to vote solidly blue as a bloc in places like Northeastern and Eastern Ohio. Look at this map of the 2006 Ohio governor's race to see just how solidly blue this whole part of the state was, largely due to union influence. An Ohio election map like this in 2023 is unthinkable. It's remarkable how fast things can change, and the Orthodox are far from the only group who've changed political allegiances in recent elections.



You can see similar voting patterns in the '08 presidential race. Everything shifted in the waning years of Obama's second term, and now most of this part of the state is deep red, outside of the urban counties. These people still vote blue for some local elections, and have largely supported Ohio's democratic senator (Brown), while voting Republican for presidential and gubernatorial elections.

Latinos in the RGV in South Texas are another group that have flipped allegiances in recent elections. Cubans in South Florida have taken an even further step to the right lately. I don't see how Orthodox Jews are different from any other group when it comes to this discussion. I think they are used as an excuse to explain NY's rightward drift more than anything.
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  #314  
Old Posted Jan 31, 2023, 7:57 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Westchester will have more literary and arts employment, due to Manhattan's differing economic mix. The Rivertowns, in particular, have a stereotypical Upper West Side-type employment mix, with musicians, psychologists and the like.
Arts, entertainment and media occupations

Hastings on Hudson 8.1%
Bronxville 7.7%
Pound Ridge 6.9%
Larchmont 5.9%

In all of these places except Bronxville more work in arts and media than as lawyers.

Last edited by Docere; Jan 31, 2023 at 8:19 PM.
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  #315  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2023, 7:24 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Nassau is nothing like those counties anymore. It's banking hard right and has an anti-intellectual streak. I think it's actually a stand alone county in the country in this regard. It might be the only very high income suburban county in the country moving right.
It has trended rightward compared to affluent suburban counties.

It's pretty much been 53-54% D and 45% R since 2008 (dropping to 51% D when the third party vote was higher in 2016).

Pretty much every other affluent suburban county is more D than in 2012.
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  #316  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2023, 8:30 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
It has trended rightward compared to affluent suburban counties.

It's pretty much been 53-54% D and 45% R since 2008 (dropping to 51% D when the third party vote was higher in 2016).

Pretty much every other affluent suburban county is more D than in 2012.
True, but every other affluent suburban NYC-area county shifted more R in 2022, while the vast majority of non-NYC area affluent counties shifted more D. And Nassau is the most overtly ethnic affluent tri-state county. I think Coastal CA might be an exception, with some NYC-area-like trends. Orange County shifted more R, and I believe there were a few others.

So it isn't clear Nassau is a national outlier, or rather that the ethnic mix in the tri-state is a contributing outlier. Even Westchester shifted more R in 2022. Even Manhattan. I don't think there's enough to detect a long-term trend, except to say that there are local peculiarities.

For example, in MI, the D's ran a really strong, moderate slate, and the R's ran an extremely wacky, uber-Trumpy slate. Not surprisingly, MI went more blue, and affluent, educated MI counties went really hard blue. But not sure this means MI is trending more blue.
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  #317  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2023, 9:14 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Yeah many NYC area counties are about 10 points less D than they "should" be given demographics.

That's true of say, Bergen County, also. It's only 53% white and Biden won it 57%-41%.

Contrast that with Montgomery County PA. 72% white and went 62-36 Biden.
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  #318  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2023, 9:22 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
For example, in MI, the D's ran a really strong, moderate slate, and the R's ran an extremely wacky, uber-Trumpy slate. Not surprisingly, MI went more blue, and affluent, educated MI counties went really hard blue. But not sure this means MI is trending more blue.
Michigan course corrected from 2016 a bit, but Biden's win margin was pretty small for a Dem presidential candidate in Michigan compared to the past 30+ years. And although the Dems took control of the MI Senate for the first time since the 1970s, I think that is due to redistricting. The MI GOP had been losing the popular vote for a number of election cycles while retaining control of the MI Senate. The popular vote margin in 2022 was almost exactly the same as it was in 2018, but Republicans had a 6 seat majority in 2018 versus a 2 seat minority in 2022.
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  #319  
Old Posted Feb 2, 2023, 12:42 AM
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I think Coastal CA might be an exception, with some NYC-area-like trends. Orange County shifted more R, and I believe there were a few others.
First, let's be clear that the entirety of coastal California--from Mexico to Oregon--falls within Democratic congressional districts. Californian sand is blue, so to speak.

Second, Orange County, specifically, is neither a longtime Democratic-leaning area nor even a longtime half-and-half area that is suddenly trending Republican. Rather, OC is a longtime Republican stronghold--famously so. The county diverted from its usual GOP course and elected more Democrats than usual in 2018 and 2020. Trump was the reason. However, in 2022, the county went (by a margin of 2%) to the GOP gubernatorial candidate, and two OC House seats flipped back to the Republicans. While both counties may have voted more Republican in 2022 than in 2020, I don't think Nassau County's story is the same as Orange County's return to its longtime Republican norm.
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  #320  
Old Posted Feb 2, 2023, 1:24 AM
edale edale is offline
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First, let's be clear that the entirety of coastal California--from Mexico to Oregon--falls within Democratic congressional districts. Californian sand is blue, so to speak.

Second, Orange County, specifically, is neither a longtime Democratic-leaning area nor even a longtime half-and-half area that is suddenly trending Republican. Rather, OC is a longtime Republican stronghold--famously so. The county diverted from its usual GOP course and elected more Democrats than usual in 2018 and 2020. Trump was the reason. However, in 2022, the county went (by a margin of 2%) to the GOP gubernatorial candidate, and two OC House seats flipped back to the Republicans. While both counties may have voted more Republican in 2022 than in 2020, I don't think Nassau County's story is the same as Orange County's return to its longtime Republican norm.
IIRC OC's congressional shifts between 2018 and 2022 were mostly due to redistricting more than anything. CA uses a fair, independent commission for drawing district boundaries. The 2022 map was much more advantageous for Rs than Ds.
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