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  #21  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 4:02 AM
CaliNative CaliNative is offline
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Originally Posted by theOGalexd View Post
Right on the line of Comal/Hays county between San Antonio and Austin is the last of undeveloped land between the 2 metros. Can't see it being more than 5-10 years before it's completely filled because of the insane growth of New Braunfels and San Marcos.
Do the people in N. Braunfels and San Marcos identify more with S.A. or Austin? It would be nice being between those cities. Both have lots of things to do. And the nearby Hill Country is nice too. Great place to live if you can survive June-August. My mom was born in S. A. so I have a claim. If they ever get pro baseball/football they'd probably have an arena complex somewhere near N.B./S.M., or maybe the football stadium in S.A. and the baseball one in Austin. U.T. longhorns kind of own Austin.
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  #22  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 5:48 AM
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The area between Seattle and Portland is mostly intermittent exurban and forest areas, with probably a ~100 mile gap between the edges of the metropolitan areas.
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Last edited by SFBruin; Feb 25, 2022 at 6:40 PM.
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  #23  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 6:15 AM
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Functionally they are the same metro, but in terms of visual appearance and developmental bones, San Mateo County would be the transition area between SF and SJ. As you go south from SF, you can see it gradually getting less and less dense and urban, and more and more sunbelt-y and suburban. Once you hit Mountain View and Sunnyvale, you can see a big difference, as you go from quaint Mid-Peninsula towns with walkable downtown districts to full blown autocentric suburbia.

Daly City - 13,734/sq mi
South SF - 7,366/sq mi
San Bruno - 7,799/sq mi
Millbrae - 6,851/sq mi
Burlingame - 7,145/sq mi
San Mateo - 6,700/sq mi
Belmont - 6,120/sq mi
San Carlos - 5,578/sq mi
Redwood City - 4,444/sq mi
Menlo Park - 3,473/sq mi
Palo Alto - 2,872/sq mi
Mountain View - 6,700/sq mi
Sunnyvale - 6,800/sq mi
Cupertino - 5,330/sq mi
San Jose - 5,685/sq mi
Don't forget Santa Clara--6,983/sq. mi.
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  #24  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 10:11 AM
theOGalexd theOGalexd is offline
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Originally Posted by CaliNative View Post
Do the people in N. Braunfels and San Marcos identify more with S.A. or Austin? It would be nice being between those cities. Both have lots of things to do. And the nearby Hill Country is nice too. Great place to live if you can survive June-August. My mom was born in S. A. so I have a claim. If they ever get pro baseball/football they'd probably have an arena complex somewhere near N.B./S.M., or maybe the football stadium in S.A. and the baseball one in Austin. U.T. longhorns kind of own Austin.
I'd say New Braunfels is more with SA and San Mo is more Austin. Pro sports somewhere in that mix would definitely be a draw but it could get dicey with the current state of I-35 lol.
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  #25  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 1:16 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by theOGalexd View Post
Right on the line of Comal/Hays county between San Antonio and Austin is the last of undeveloped land between the 2 metros. Can't see it being more than 5-10 years before it's completely filled because of the insane growth of New Braunfels and San Marcos.
Seems like at some point there will be constant development between Austin and DFW as well, considering Waco (and to a lesser extent Temple/Killeen) are all growing and directly in between.
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  #26  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 1:32 PM
jtown,man jtown,man is offline
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Originally Posted by CaliNative View Post
Do the people in N. Braunfels and San Marcos identify more with S.A. or Austin? It would be nice being between those cities. Both have lots of things to do. And the nearby Hill Country is nice too. Great place to live if you can survive June-August. My mom was born in S. A. so I have a claim. If they ever get pro baseball/football they'd probably have an arena complex somewhere near N.B./S.M., or maybe the football stadium in S.A. and the baseball one in Austin. U.T. longhorns kind of own Austin.
I went to school in San Marcos for a few semesters, it most certainly falls in Austin's orbit. New Braunfels is a lot more connected to SA.
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  #27  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 2:14 PM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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With Orlando and Tampa, Lakeland is part of the Orlando CSA and Plant City is part of the Tampa CSA. Lakeland is closer to Tampa than Orlando and always seemed more oriented to Tampa to me.
https://www.google.com/maps/@28.0335.../data=!3m1!1e3

This Countyline RD is the border between the 2 metros: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hi...!4d-82.3017728
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  #28  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 2:20 PM
TempleGuy1000 TempleGuy1000 is online now
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Mercer County isn't a transition county. The commute patters are about 5-to-1 in one direction. A long time ago, when the county was mostly Trenton, yeah, it was probably a transition region.
Yet, people in Mercer County watch the Philadelphia news, eat Hoagies, and root for the Eagles.

I grew up in New Hope along the river and dated a girl in Princeton for a while. I don't agree with your take.
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  #29  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 2:29 PM
dave8721 dave8721 is offline
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With the Miami MSA, the north side of this road is not part of the metro, the South side is.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Pa...!4d-80.2767327
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  #30  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 2:33 PM
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Philadelphia has two such transition areas: Mercer County, NJ and Cecil County, MD. The former is not in our metro area or CSA, while the latter is in both. I'd argue that Mercer County shares more of an identity with Philly than Cecil County, although I certainly see why Cecil County falls within our metro area.

Unlike Mercer County, Cecil County features a well-defined border between the Philadelphia Metro/CSA and the Baltimore MSA/DC CSA: the Susquehanna River.
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  #31  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 2:51 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan View Post
Philadelphia has two such transition areas: Mercer County, NJ and Cecil County, MD. The former is not in our metro area or CSA, while the latter is in both. I'd argue that Mercer County shares more of an identity with Philly than Cecil County, although I certainly see why Cecil County falls within our metro area.

Unlike Mercer County, Cecil County features a well-defined border between the Philadelphia Metro/CSA and the Baltimore MSA/DC CSA: the Susquehanna River.
Cecil County is very exurban. Still lots of farmland, no sizable cities (Elkton is the largest, and it has like 15,000 people).

Functionally speaking, it's more like it has slight spillover from Newark, Delaware. But it's still mostly rural.
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  #32  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 3:58 PM
Don't Be That Guy Don't Be That Guy is offline
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Youngstown, OH is slightly closer to downtown Pittsburgh than it is to downtown Cleveland but isn't considered to be in Pittsburgh's orbit. I don't know if it's the outer limits of Cleveland's orbit or just its own thing.
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  #33  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 4:05 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Mercer County isn't a transition county. The commute patters are about 5-to-1 in one direction. A long time ago, when the county was mostly Trenton, yeah, it was probably a transition region.
Yeah. But how far? Those 5 commuters aren't going all the way to NYC.

They're either staying in Mercer or driving into Middlesex County or thereabouts. That's what's so weird about the definition. How are commuters who live and work in Mercer County counted in that metric? As commuting to the NY metro, I presume?

I'd say more specifically, the areas south and east of Trenton are more squarely in the Philadelphia metro (ex. Hamilton Square, Robbinsville, Mercerville) and the areas north of Trenton -> NYC. NW of Trenton can go either way as much of that part of Mercer County feels indistinguishable from Bucks County imo.

Last edited by 3rd&Brown; Feb 25, 2022 at 4:22 PM.
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  #34  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 4:27 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Yeah. But how far? Those 5 commuters aren't going all the way to NYC.

They're either staying in Mercer or driving into Middlesex County or thereabouts. That's what's so weird about the definition. How are commuters who live and work in Mercer County counted in that metric? As commuting to the NY metro, I presume?

I'd say more specifically, the areas south and east of Trenton are more squarely in the Philadelphia metro (ex. Hamilton Square, Robbinsville, Mercerville) and the areas north of Trenton -> NYC. NW of Trenton can go either way as much of that part of Mercer County feels indistinguishable from Bucks County imo.
I'll answer my own question. https://www.dvrpc.org/Reports/DB092.pdf

According to this study (which is a bit dated), roughly 68% of Mercer County residents work in Mercer County. Another 9% work in Middlesex County. That's 77%.

The number who work in PA versus every other state that's not PA, NJ, DE, or MD (this study was specifically done by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning commission which only includes those states) is roughly 4.57 (PA) versus 4.69 (All other states and Puerto Rico). That includes NY and every other state not listed above.

So the 5:1 stat is simply not true.

By comparison, 17% of Middlesex County residents commute to non-DVRPC states (i.e. most likely NY). It shows you how much stronger the ties to NY are just one county further away.
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  #35  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 7:16 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
I'll answer my own question. https://www.dvrpc.org/Reports/DB092.pdf

According to this study (which is a bit dated), roughly 68% of Mercer County residents work in Mercer County. Another 9% work in Middlesex County. That's 77%.

The number who work in PA versus every other state that's not PA, NJ, DE, or MD (this study was specifically done by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning commission which only includes those states) is roughly 4.57 (PA) versus 4.69 (All other states and Puerto Rico). That includes NY and every other state not listed above.

So the 5:1 stat is simply not true.

By comparison, 17% of Middlesex County residents commute to non-DVRPC states (i.e. most likely NY). It shows you how much stronger the ties to NY are just one county further away.
It kinda reminds me of how since Columbia MD is defined as one of the principal cities of the Baltimore metro area, it literally cannot be moved into the DC metro, given within-county commutes count.
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  #36  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 8:05 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
Oddly enough, I didn't notice much separation between Lexington and Cincinnati on 75. Maybe some farmland north of Georgetown, but it felt like one long(ish) slog through suburbia. I forgot how far south the Kentucky side of Greater Cincinnati has sprawled.
The sprawl stops right where I-75 and I-71 split, but that's a solid 20 miles south of the Ohio River.

There is definitely a pretty solid separation between the end of that sprawl and the northern fringe of Lexington, which is the giant Toyota plant in Georgetown, KY.

Lexington doesn't get much credit for being one of the only cities to successfully deflect not one but two interstate highways. They passed the first urban growth boundary in the United States in 1958, and that seems to have helped them both keep I-75 and I-64 far away from Lexington's downtown, but to also sustain the health of the downtown despite its relatively poor interstate highway access. It's really one of the only places where the interstates act like how expressways do in Europe.
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  #37  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 9:28 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
The sprawl stops right where I-75 and I-71 split, but that's a solid 20 miles south of the Ohio River.

There is definitely a pretty solid separation between the end of that sprawl and the northern fringe of Lexington, which is the giant Toyota plant in Georgetown, KY.

Lexington doesn't get much credit for being one of the only cities to successfully deflect not one but two interstate highways. They passed the first urban growth boundary in the United States in 1958, and that seems to have helped them both keep I-75 and I-64 far away from Lexington's downtown, but to also sustain the health of the downtown despite its relatively poor interstate highway access. It's really one of the only places where the interstates act like how expressways do in Europe.
That's interesting.

It could explain why Lexington punches far above its weight. I know multiple people who have lived there at multiple points in time and absolutely loved it.
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  #38  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 9:35 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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It kinda reminds me of how since Columbia MD is defined as one of the principal cities of the Baltimore metro area, it literally cannot be moved into the DC metro, given within-county commutes count.
Exactly. The definition of how MSAs are defined is very confusing, but it changes the narrative. It's not simply commuting patterns. At some point, a (very likely, political) decision was made to define Trenton as a principal city of NYC as opposed to a principal city of Philadelphia and its just been a self fulfilling prophecy from there.

The more I think of it, I think there are exactly 3 or 4 municipalities in Mercer County that probably align more with NYC than the rest (Princeton Borough, Princeton Township, West Windsor Township, and Plainsboro) for the obvious reason that they're on direct transit to NYC and have excellent schools, which makes them an attractive location for commuters into NYC. Prices, even though expensive, are still cheaper than points further north.

The balance of Mercer is firmly oriented toward Philadelphia.

Anyway. I digress. The original point stands. The statistics actually don't confirm Mercer should be in the NY MSA at all.
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  #39  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 9:58 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
The original point stands. The statistics actually don't confirm Mercer should be in the NY MSA at all.
Trenton/Mercer County is a standalone MSA, though it is included in the NYC CSA. But I think it's reasonable to call it "transitional."
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  #40  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2022, 10:07 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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I definitely noticed, and appreciated how Lexington keeps the freeways away from downtown. I drove to Lake Cumberland from Huntington, WV and then from Cumberland back to Cincinnati. Traffic around Georgetown was shitty because of road construction, but you can barely see Lexington's downtown from the 64/75 interchange.
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