Quote:
Originally Posted by Via Chicago
sorry, was referring to TUP's post specifically. but yeah if things contiune on this route (no reason to say they wont), theres no way this isnt a depression. and theres no way we get through this without a historic New Deal type piece of legislation which is equally as transformative to American society. there wont be any other option. all the stuff being proposed right now is laughable.
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Most everyone agrees this is the start of a recession. I do not agree on depression. A depression lasts multiple years and simply there's no way of telling right now that it's going to last more than a few quarters.
This is due to a virus and an oil price war. While a lot of the stock market was being propped up by some artificial things the last few years, it's not something that is wrong in the underlying financial system itself per se. Right now this has more to do with consumers for the most part holding onto their money. Our economy is 70% from consumer spending. So obviously it's a big impact, but if this thing blows over in 2 months, and as long as jobs can be kept or those temp workers can get money with other means of aid, then a lot of people will start spending again. The $1.5T measure to what I know is meant to enable businesses in the tough times right now be able to take out certain type of loan from banks easier so they can not have to lay people off. I think the biggest gap here is the workers at restaurants/bars. They need aid and the restaurants/bars have to be able to weather this for the next few weeks at least to stay open. If that does not happen then it won't be good at all.
With my own team, the whole thing kind of sucks. In NYC they closed schools so someone on my team as a result cannot work this week at all due to other factors. So our commitments were already in place meaning now everyone on my team has to work a little harder to make sure things get done. It is what it is but it's crazy. A lot of companies who run pandemic simulations once a year are still not totally prepared.
I do agree that this will have a big impact on everyone whether their job is in jeopardy or not. As someone who has a responsibility for bringing work into teams, how much things cost to do, how long they should take to complete, etc it will change the way I think about how I even estimate these things at certain times of the year.