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  #9261  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:10 PM
Obadno Obadno is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post

The typical response to this framing is that if we had not freaked out about covid a vastly larger number of people would have died.
this is literally religious unfalsifiable thinking. You cant know what would have happened. Good thing we invaded Iraq before Sadam conquered the earth! Imagine what would have happened if we didn't! We'd all be subjects of the planetary Baath party!

I would argue that if we had not become the spectacle it was it would have probably stayed 3rd page news about a Wuhan flu epidemic that spread and was causing busy emergency rooms like many many many flue and other illness epidemics have in the past.
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  #9262  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
this is literally religious unfalsifiable thinking. You cant know what would have happened. Good thing we invaded Iraq before Sadam conquered the earth! Imagine what would have happened if we didn't! We'd all be subjects of the planetary Baath party!

I would argue that if we had not become the spectacle it was it would have probably stayed 3rd page news about a Wuhan flu epidemic that spread and was causing busy emergency rooms like many many many flue and other illness epidemics have in the past.
I think it would have been worse than other similar events in recent decades but far below the worst-case scenarios even without the society-wide mitigation measures which probably did little in the long run and had a catastrophically bad cost-benefit. I agree with you about the falsifiability problem and most people seem to have a hard time seeing this or why it's a problem.

One thing we can see even right now with omicron (maybe the 4th or 5th time this same thing has happened) is that rather than rapidly infecting everybody the spread tends to be limited long before then. With omicron the spread was fast (maybe faster generation time) and the peak came quite quickly. But it's hard because people want to know what will happen in the future and so the false certainty of the simple models is alluring, or they're held up as a kind of "worst-case scenario" we must always plan for (even though we don't have the resources to respond to every potential threat in this way). Furthermore many people attribute peaks and declines in cases to whatever they want, which could be expanded mitigation measures (even though around here most of the same stuff has been in place for many months now). Many people will look at the "wave-like" case curves and make up a story that fits their views, which around here mostly means faith in masks and social distancing, etc.

I wonder how much the mitigation measures are extending the pain at this point. Even if all we cared about were hospitals I wonder if our strategy makes sense.
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  #9263  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:25 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
^ I'd be more than happy if we finally outlawed cars once and for all!

They're WAY more fucking dangerous than stupid covid for like 90% of the population.
As long as they continue to allow internal combustion powered sports cars, I'm ok with this.

Less cars on the road, less grandmas and housewives driving slow in the left lane, and more joyrides! We all win!!
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  #9264  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:30 PM
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As long as they continue to allow internal combustion powered sports cars, I'm ok with this.
No.

ALL cars.

You are not special.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 18, 2022 at 6:44 PM.
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  #9265  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:30 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Yes and statistically speaking you're unlikely to die from being castrated. Doesn't mean I don't want to avoid that.
Your efforts at not getting castrated does not put people out of work, keep the economy down, and lead to the Feds printing money and rampant inflation thoughout.

Every time the germaphobes that the current leaders put in charge have a shit fit about a new variant, TONS of working class people trying to make ends meet miss out on a paycheck or two, or three, if not losing their jobs altogether. And scores of more businesses close.

That point continues to sail over your head.
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  #9266  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:31 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
No

ALL cars.

You are not special.
No deal. I am special.
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  #9267  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:44 PM
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I am special.
I got some disappointing news for ya, snowflake.
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  #9268  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:46 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Your efforts at not getting castrated does not put people out of work, keep the economy down, and lead to the Feds printing money and rampant inflation thoughout.

Every time the germaphobes that the current leaders put in charge have a shit fit about a new variant, TONS of working class people trying to make ends meet miss out on a paycheck or two, or three, if not losing their jobs altogether. And scores of more businesses close.

That point continues to sail over your head.
Isn't the US with an all time low unemployment? You shouldn't worry so much.

And inflation, it comes and goes. FED will increase interests and it will disappear. Meanwhile, it prevented the economic collapse of the US economy.

-----------------------------------------------


This discussion about newborns getting Covid is completely nonsensical. It's OBVIOUS, as a parent, you don't want your kid to take a virus (or any virus for that matter) that has killed 1 million Americans in the past two years.
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  #9269  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 6:57 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
I think it would have been worse than other similar events in recent decades but far below the worst-case scenarios even without the society-wide mitigation measures which probably did little in the long run and had a catastrophically bad cost-benefit. I agree with you about the falsifiability problem and most people seem to have a hard time seeing this or why it's a problem.

One thing we can see even right now with omicron (maybe the 4th or 5th time this same thing has happened) is that rather than rapidly infecting everybody the spread tends to be limited long before then. With omicron the spread was fast (maybe faster generation time) and the peak came quite quickly. But it's hard because people want to know what will happen in the future and so the false certainty of the simple models is alluring, or they're held up as a kind of "worst-case scenario" we must always plan for (even though we don't have the resources to respond to every potential threat in this way). Furthermore many people attribute peaks and declines in cases to whatever they want, which could be expanded mitigation measures (even though around here most of the same stuff has been in place for many months now). Many people will look at the "wave-like" case curves and make up a story that fits their views, which around here mostly means faith in masks and social distancing, etc.

I wonder how much the mitigation measures are extending the pain at this point. Even if all we cared about were hospitals I wonder if our strategy makes sense.
Agree. We can debate what degree of lockdown was appropriate in the spring of 2020, but by 2022, the answer is pretty obvious: locking everything down even now that everyone's vaccinated and we've switched to dominant strain that's weaker than a cold is not a good economic cost-benefit calculation at all.
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  #9270  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 7:11 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Agree. We can debate what degree of lockdown was appropriate in the spring of 2020, but by 2022, the answer is pretty obvious: locking everything down even now that everyone's vaccinated and we've switched to dominant strain that's weaker than a cold is not a good economic cost-benefit calculation at all.
It's interesting now to look back at the various scientists who commented and how they were treated. Lots of people believe we "follow the science".

The ones who did some early serology studies were completely trashed publicly even though their estimates looked pretty good in the long run and we eventually sort of had to accept their findings. It was obvious even in March 2020 that covid was not killing 3-5% of people for example and probably not even 1% of infections in many populations. One of the guys who got trashed was a star of scientific meta-analysis, maybe one of the most cited people in the world.

There was another guy (Michael Levitt, biophysicist with Nobel prize) who made basic observations (stuff like "derivative is going down, spread is not going to take off in the way you guys say") and he got trashed.

The people arguing for focused protection of the most vulnerable (Great Barrington) got smeared too. Since that time an email leaked from the NIH director that asked for a "take-down" of this group.

I don't think anybody had any silver-bullet solutions but if we had been able to have an open and honest conversation that was less fear driven it might have gone better IMO. This was a total fail to deploy the resources we have effectively due to politics. One big political problem is that big pharma basically "saving us" does not fit into the worldview of a lot of people, so they have to emphasize other things. As for me, I don't care if my altar that I pray to has an Anthony Fauci or Theresa Tam doll or a Pfizer logo.
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  #9271  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 7:27 PM
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UrbanImpact UrbanImpact is offline
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You can order 4 covid tests now per address:
https://special.usps.com/testkits

USA only
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  #9272  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 7:30 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by UrbanImpact View Post
You can order 4 covid tests now per address:
https://special.usps.com/testkits
OMG, just what I've been waiting for!
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  #9273  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 7:33 PM
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OMG, just what I've been waiting for!
I thought you were busy planning another insurrection?
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  #9274  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 7:52 PM
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Originally Posted by UrbanImpact View Post
You can order 4 covid tests now per address:
https://special.usps.com/testkits

USA only
Now the paranoid don’t ever have to leave their homes.
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  #9275  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 8:05 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by UrbanImpact View Post
You can order 4 covid tests now per address:
https://special.usps.com/testkits

USA only
Quote:
Originally Posted by photoLith View Post
Now the paranoid don’t ever have to leave their homes.
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  #9276  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 9:27 PM
SAN Man SAN Man is offline
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Originally Posted by UrbanImpact View Post
You can order 4 covid tests now per address:
https://special.usps.com/testkits

USA only
I ordered mine a couple hours ago. I have a wedding coming up, I'll save a test for that.
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  #9277  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 10:10 PM
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OMG, just what I've been waiting for!
Does it really suck that you were advocating against testing, and now every American household can get 4?
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  #9278  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
this is literally religious unfalsifiable thinking. You cant know what would have happened. Good thing we invaded Iraq before Sadam conquered the earth! Imagine what would have happened if we didn't! We'd all be subjects of the planetary Baath party!

I would argue that if we had not become the spectacle it was it would have probably stayed 3rd page news about a Wuhan flu epidemic that spread and was causing busy emergency rooms like many many many flue and other illness epidemics have in the past.
It may even be that the same number of people would have gotten it pre-vaccination, but in a shorter period of time. And since the vast majority of people don’t get anything close to requiring hospital treatment, the “overwhelmed healthcare system” problem could have been prevented by prudence on the part of vulnerable people (particularly the elderly).

Of course they refused to do that (my own 73-year old father was complaining in May 2020 that it would be “unfair” to let young people enjoy themselves if old people could not, as if fairness had anything to do with it).

Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
No deal. I am special.
We have this in common.
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  #9279  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 10:23 PM
SAN Man SAN Man is offline
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I think everybody with health insurance can get up to 8 tests per month now at no expense. I got an email from KP with the details.

Quote:
Kaiser Permanente to cover cost of COVID-19 rapid antigen home tests
Following guidance from the Biden administration, Kaiser Permanente will now reimburse members for FDA-approved rapid antigen home tests. Submit a reimbursement claim here for tests purchased on or after January 15, 2022.

Currently, there is a nationwide shortage of rapid antigen home tests. Kaiser Permanente, like other health care organizations, has access to a very limited supply of tests. We are working to get tests and make them available to our members through a number of outlets, including mail-order. We will share further details as they become available.
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  #9280  
Old Posted Jan 18, 2022, 10:42 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by SAN Man View Post
I ordered mine a couple hours ago. I have a wedding coming up, I'll save a test for that.
In all seriousness, I ordered mine as well.

Of course, not because I am worried about COVID, but in case we're required to clear testing by this authoritarian regime we're living in right now
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