The US Census Bureau thread - Page 191

iheartthed · #**3801** Posted **Sep 23, 2022, 5:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eschaton

Technically speaking, not quite true. Residents of American Samoa are not U.S. citizens, because it is the only inhabited territory which is unincorporated, meaning the U.S. Constitution does not apply there. There have been repeated cases regarding this (most recently in 2021) with district courts saying that American Samoans do not have birthright citizenship. There's a Supreme Court case regarding this currently pending.

That said, they are considered U.S. nationals, even though they aren't citizens. They can freely migrate to the U.S. and are effectively treated like they hold a green card.

Birthright citizenship is granted to U.S. territories through legislation, not the U.S. constitution.

eschaton · #**3802** Posted **Sep 23, 2022, 5:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Birthright citizenship is granted to U.S. territories through legislation, not the U.S. constitution.

The U.S. Constitution only applies to incorporated territories, not unincorporated ones. Since all the other territories are incorporated, all of the Constitution applies, including the 14th Amendment. American Samoa was never incorporated for some reason, hence the 14th Amendment does not apply.

iheartthed · #**3803** Posted **Sep 23, 2022, 5:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by eschaton

The U.S. Constitution only applies to incorporated territories, not unincorporated ones. Since all the other territories are incorporated, all of the Constitution applies, including the 14th Amendment. American Samoa was never incorporated for some reason, hence the 14th Amendment does not apply.

Puerto Rico is not incorporated either. Puerto Rican birthright U.S. citizenship is granted through Congressional legislation, not the 14th Amendment. I don't think any of the current non-state territories are incorporated.

Yuri · #**3804** Posted **Sep 23, 2022, 7:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DCReid

People are fleeing Puerto Rico, Guam and every other U.S. territory. What gives?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pe...2c01d0dfa2451c

Bringing in a post of mine last week from another forum:

Back to the Latin American series, Puerto Rico. We've discussed it on the beginning of the thread as they've entered at Eastern European type of demographic collapse.

----------------------- Births ------ Deaths ------ TFR ------- Population
1980 --------------- 73,060 ------ 20,486 ------ 2.75 ------- 3.188 million
1990 --------------- 66,692 ------ 26,138 ------ 2.35 ------- 3.518 million
2000 --------------- 59,460 ------ 28,550 ------ 1.93 ------- 3.797 million
2010 --------------- 42,153 ------ 29,153 ------ 1.62 ------- 3.722 million
2020 --------------- 18,933 ------ 31,679 ------ 0.92 ------- 3.285 million
2021 --------------- 19,167 ------ 33,338 -------- ? --------- 3.263 million

Emigration to the US has always been a constant, but things sped up in the past decade while births and TFR suddenly fell to South Korea, Taiwan levels. Note how births completely collapsed from 2010 onwards. Births are now merely 1/4 (!!!) of the registered in 1980.

The island took the worst of each world: ultra-low East Asian TFR and Eastern European mass emigration. It's a perfect storm.

Steely Dan · #**3805** Posted **Sep 26, 2022, 9:56 PM**

detroit isn't letting the CB off the hook easy, suing the bureau for a second time.

Quote:

Detroit sues Census Bureau, accuses feds of undercounting minorities
Robert Snell
Sarah Rahal
The Detroit News

Detroit — The city of Detroit filed a federal lawsuit Tuesday against the U.S. Census Bureau and Commerce Department, accusing officials of undercounting residents, particularly Black and Hispanic citizens.

The lawsuit is the latest attempt to challenge Census results that are used to draw congressional districts, determine how many state and federal representatives a given community has and how to allocate funding to different states and localities.

City officials argue Detroit has gained population and that federal officials have refused to correct a racially-biased undercount.

"The bureau’s failure to consider evidence of its inaccurate 2021 estimate costs the city and its residents millions of dollars of funding to which they are entitled while threatening the city’s historic turnaround by advancing the false narrative that Detroit is losing population," the lawsuit reads.

City officials want to force the Census Bureau to accept and evaluate challenges to the 2021 population estimates. They also want a federal judge to declare that the refusal to correct a racially-biased undercount “negatively and disproportionately affects the count of the City and results in actual discrimination against Detroit’s Black and Hispanic residents.”

full article: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...s/10433270002/

if the argument in the bolded holds, that could very well affect countless cities nationwide with high black & latino populations.

the CB's own analysis of census 2020 data said that, nationwide, blacks were undercounted by ~3%, and latinos by ~5%.

if you apply those percentages to a city like chicago, that that would mean ~41K latinos got missed, and ~24K blacks as well, for a combined undercount of ~65K.

LosAngelesSportsFan · #**3806** Posted **Sep 26, 2022, 10:05 PM**

Good. I hate that LA city did not sue either but i wouldnt expect any less from the morons in charge here

edale · #**3807** Posted **Sep 26, 2022, 10:18 PM**

"they also want a federal judge to declare that the refusal to correct a racially-biased undercount “negatively and disproportionately affects the count of the City and results in actual discrimination against Detroit’s Black and Hispanic residents.”

So because Detroit's Black and Mexican residents didn't fill out their Census forms, the USCB discriminated? Makes total sense.

Steely Dan · #**3808** Posted **Sep 26, 2022, 10:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by edale

So because Detroit's Black and Mexican residents didn't fill out their Census forms, the USCB discriminated? Makes total sense.

i think the argument here is that the CB is discriminating against black and brown americans by refusing to correct the undercounts that its own analysis of its data found.

census challenges seem to rarely succeed, so we'll see where this goes.

but the real story here is that the motor city isn't letting the issue go, suing for a second time now.

sopas ej · #**3809** Posted **Sep 26, 2022, 10:40 PM**

Yeah, it's not that Blacks and Hispanics just didn't fill out their forms; some probably purposely didn't receive any forms, or weren't interviewed by telephone, or didn't have internet access to do the census online. COVID didn't help, either. Door-to-door in-person interviews weren't being done.

A news story from NPR, from March: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/10/10837...t-data-quality

Xing · #**3810** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 12:34 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by edale

So because Detroit's Black and Mexican residents didn't fill out their Census forms, the USCB discriminated? Makes total sense.

Is that a fact, or just your assumption? Honestly, the way it was done, due to Covid, did make it more difficult for lower income minority residents.

iheartthed · #**3811** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 3:14 PM**

Detroit challenges every census count...

Steely Dan · #**3812** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 3:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Detroit challenges every census count...

right, but now they're suing over the annual estimate too.

tenacious.

iheartthed · #**3813** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 3:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

right, but now they're suing over the annual estimate too.

tenacious.

I think it's just Mike Duggan trying to cover his own ass, honestly. I don't believe that the census systematically discriminated against Detroit. If he put as much energy into trying to stop the population bleed as he does into handing out demolition contracts then he wouldn't have to sue the census.

Steely Dan · #**3814** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 3:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't believe that the census systematically discriminated against Detroit.

i don't think that's the city's argument here.

they're challenging the CB's reluctance to adjust for their self-admitted undercounts of blacks and latinos.

it just so happens that those undercounts impacted detroit quite severely because the combined black & latino share of detroit is over 85%.

but such an adjustment on the black and latino undercounts would also obviously have a big impact on cities from coast to coast.

my guess is that nothing will change here.

iheartthed · #**3815** Posted **Sep 27, 2022, 3:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i don't think that's the city's argument here.

they're challenging the CB's reluctance to adjust for their self-admitted undercounts of blacks and latinos.

it just so happens that those undercounts impacted detroit quite severely because the combined black & latino share of detroit is over 85%.

but such an adjustment on the black and latino undercounts would also obviously have a big impact on cities from coast to coast.

my guess is that nothing changes.

I think the adjustment they're arguing for accounts for 30k people. I have yet to be convinced that the reason for the lawsuit is anything other than a vanity project for Mike Duggan. I haven't seen any media reporting about the missed funding amount for the undercount or whether the cost of the lawsuit is even fiscally responsible. The lawsuit against the census is also part of a long pattern of Detroit mayors suing the Census Bureau after receiving unfavorable population numbers.

Yuri · #**3816** Posted **Oct 28, 2022, 9:12 PM**

Vital Stats - United States

------------------- Births ----- Deaths

Jan-Jun 2021 --- 1,752,000 --- 1,684,000

Jan-Jun 2022 --- 1,765,000 --- 1,671,000

The US is heading to another horrible year demographic wise. Covid deaths are still very high deforming their death curve and births show any sign to recover. In fact, between Apr-Jun, numbers are below 2021. If this trend keeps going, 2022 will register less births than 2021.

ChiSoxRox · #**3817** Posted **Dec 3, 2022, 7:17 PM**

The 2021 American Community Survey numbers go public on the 8th.

Then, sometime later this month we get July 1, 2022 state estimates. Looking forward to those as the DC number will give us a clear data point on urban rebound from COVID. The New York state change is largely NYC itself, so that will be a second data point.