When will Moncton take St. John's as the second largest city in Atlantic Canada?

[KnoxfordGuy]

Does this mean anything? Moncton is growing substantially faster.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Does this mean anything? Moncton is growing substantially faster.

It will be interesting to see what sort of feedback we get from St. John's residents.

Things can always change, and Moncton may not keep om growing so rapidly forever. Moncton still has to compete locally with Freddy and Saint John. Freddy has the advantage of being the capital, and Saint John has been making some positive noises recently around it's port.

St. John's on the other hand is the only game in town in Newfoundland, but the entire province is still mired with a stagnant population. I expect incremental (but slow) growth for the NL capital.

At present, St. John's still has a 45-50,000 population advantage over Moncton. This gap will take some time to overcome. I could foresee Moncton moving into the #2 position though by 2050 or so (all things considered).

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Does this mean anything? Moncton is growing substantially faster.

Hard to say definitively, since there's no way to predict the future. If you extrapolate based on just this past year's estimated growth rates, 2030.



Given that 5.4% growth in Moncton in a single year is unprecedented for the city, and St. John's has a substantial head start, I can't see that possibly happening that quickly.

[Bishop2047]

Moncton will always have a logistical advantage and that lends itself to stable growth. There may be a bit of maritime competition but as Halifax/Fredericton/SJ and other cities grow/prosper so will many of the services and industries provided in a hub city like Moncton.

St John's is a great city but lacks the connectivity, local markets, and potential feeder communities that maritime cities (and other mainland communities) benefit from.

I want St John's to have a reason to absolutely boom, but just don't see that happening for any reason other than another oil/natural resource push, and those don't last forever.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Being the old big city in NFLD should allow St. John's steady growth. As a capital too, it should do better than if it was not.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Being the old big city in NFLD should allow St. John's steady growth. As a capital too, it should do better than if it was not.

I'm sure I saw in one of the statistics threads that more of the smaller communities on the island of Newfoundland are shrinking as people move either to St. John's or off the island completely.

I do hope St John's continues to grow and flourish as it looks an awesome city! But there might be something in the connectivity / jobs issue being on the island. Even for a Saint John resident at times you feel a bit unconnected either through lack of direct flights (outside of Toronto/Montreal) or even a smaller drive to a "bigger city".
6 hours to Quebec City, 5 hours to Portland and 4 to Halifax is still a weekend commitment.

Moncton has got the 2 hours to Halifax drive and direct flights to the Caribbean with Sun Wing etc.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

It depends,

For the first time I'm seeing a significant amount of new entrepreneurs/businesses via immigrants. A lot of new trendy businesses seem to be opening up every month or so, but to sustain this growths Moncton will need to attract a few more major employers: Walmart distribution center, TD Corporate office etc.

I thought I read somewhere (maybe here) that the city is planning another industrial park which I could only see happening if we have another major unannounced employer. This could also be just another Irving expansion.

The cheap cost of living attracted central/western Canadians and Immigrants but jobs is what will keep them here. Everything seems to be pointing in the right direction for now though.

[mylesmalley]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

It depends,
I thought I read somewhere (maybe here) that the city is planning another industrial park which I could only see happening if we have another major unannounced employer. This could also be just another Irving expansion.

Two, actually. A park south of Shediac Road / East of Harrisville across the highway from the airport.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ncil-1.6361230

The other is the next phase of MID West.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...cton-1.6684005

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

I thought I read somewhere (maybe here) that the city is planning another industrial park which I could only see happening if we have another major unannounced employer. This could also be just another Irving expansion.

MID is going to build an entirely new industrial park on the SW corner of the 2/15 interchange to allow future growth as our existing parks are reaching capacity.

In addition, MID is going to extend Horsman Road from the MID West Park through to the hump yard road, specifically to create a couple of large lots for customers interested in large scale projects. I don't know if this is for new distribution centres (? Amazon) or for something manufacturing related, but this is indeed the impetus to connect the two west end industrial parks.

[new kid in town]

Somewhat off tangent but what are the odds of Moncton absorbing Salisbury or Shediac as part of its Greater Moncton Area in the future?

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Somewhat off tangent but what are the odds of Moncton absorbing Salisbury or Shediac as part of its Greater Moncton Area in the future?

Salisbury already is and as for Shediac, most people believe that it will happen eventually. When though no one knows for sure.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Somewhat off tangent but what are the odds of Moncton absorbing Salisbury or Shediac as part of its Greater Moncton Area in the future?

Salisbury is already considered part of the CMA.

Shediac isn't, and won't be until the strict commuting patterns dictated by Statistics Canada are met. It will happen, but perhaps not for another 20-30 years.

Shediac is growing substantially. I wonder how many of the new residents are commuters versus retirees or people employed locally?

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Salisbury already is and as for Shediac, most people believe that it will happen eventually. When though no one knows for sure.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Salisbury is already considered part of the CMA.

Shediac isn't, and won't be until the strict commuting patterns dictated by Statistics Canada are met. It will happen, but perhaps not for another 20-30 years.

Shediac is growing substantially. I wonder how many of the new residents are commuters versus retirees or people employed locally?

Oh I didn't realize Salisbury is already included. Thanks for that info.

Can we see a possible expansion of the airport, and subsequent growth around it as a catalyst to link Shediac closer to GMA?

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Shediac and Dieppe now border each other even more now since the Local Government Reform happened in New Brunswick. So this is a possibility through Dieppe and into Shediac. Although I'm sure that Dieppe will want all of that growth to stay in it's own borders.

Here is a link to the new boundaries.
Dieppe:
https://electionsnb.ca/content/dam/e...tes/Dieppe.pdf
Shediac:
https://electionsnb.ca/content/dam/e...es/Shediac.pdf

P.S. Here is the link for all of the New Brunswick Reform maps.
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/c...overnance.html

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Shediac and Dieppe now border each other even more now since the Local Government Reform happened in New Brunswick. So this is a possibility through Dieppe and into Shediac. Although I'm sure that Dieppe will want all of that growth to stay in it's own borders.

Here is a link to the new boundaries.
Dieppe:
https://electionsnb.ca/content/dam/e...tes/Dieppe.pdf
Shediac:
https://electionsnb.ca/content/dam/e...es/Shediac.pdf

P.S. Here is the link for all of the New Brunswick Reform maps.
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/c...overnance.html

Thank you for the maps!

If Dieppe does get more retail (that aren't readily available in Shediac) and jobs, perhaps that might still attract people from Shediac to contribute to the commuting patterns? Would probably still take a long time though as you said.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

If Dieppe does get more retail (that aren't readily available in Shediac) and jobs, perhaps that might still attract people from Shediac to contribute to the commuting patterns? Would probably still take a long time though as you said.

The main problem (attribute really) with Shediac is that there are a lot of home grown jobs in the community. It is a service centre for the Northumberland shore, has lots of tourism related employment, fishing, provincial and federal civil service (Federal Superannuation Branch is there for example), schools, nursing homes etc. Because of this, many people do not have to commute for employment.

Shediac is increasingly a bedroom community of Moncton, but it will take a lot more growth to overcome the large non commuting population in the town.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The main problem (attribute really) with Shediac is that there are a lot of home grown jobs in the community. It is a service centre for the Northumberland shore, has lots of tourism related employment, fishing, provincial and federal civil service (Federal Superannuation Branch is there for example), schools, nursing homes etc. Because of this, many people do not have to commute for employment.

Shediac is increasingly a bedroom community of Moncton, but it will take a lot more growth to overcome the large non commuting population in the town.

Touché.

[Dengler Avenue]

Do people commute between Moncton and Sackville for work too? Imagine Moncton absorbing Sackville too. That’ll be quite the feat.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by mylesmalley

Given that 5.4% growth in Moncton in a single year is unprecedented for the city, and St. John's has a substantial head start, I can't see that possibly happening that quickly.

On the one hand I think the 5.4% probably is going to be an unusually high rate for one year and is not sustainable. On the other hand, the immigration policies and housing affordability issues driving the growth may not be changed or fixed for many years. It's entirely possible, maybe most likely, that 5-10 years from now we'll just have the same policies and housing will be even less affordable in Canada ($3k bachelor apartments in Toronto, people paying $600k for midrange Moncton houses, and so on).

I also think there is going to be a kind of virtuous cycle or critical mass in the Maritimes during the coming years. The provinces will find the demographics make their finances easier, the popularity of people moving in will bring more businesses, it will be possible to support more services and infrastructure.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Do people commute between Moncton and Sackville for work too? Imagine Moncton absorbing Sackville too. That’ll be quite the feat.

Not a lot. Sackville is 30 minutes from Moncton. This may not seem like a long commute to a Torontonian, but you are talking about driving at 120 km/hr on a divided highway dodging moose along the way, and in unfavourable weather conditions for half the year. We get a lot of snow around here........

Also, Sackville is even more self sufficient than Shediac is (Mount Allison University), and is a little bipolar in that Amherst (NS) is just across the marsh and about 10 minutes away. There is a fair bit of commuting between Sackville and Amherst. Moncton, not so much.

Now, if there was a regular express commuter bus service between Sackville and Moncton, things might change, but that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.