Is a new pattern of white flight developing: leaving some MSAs altogether?

[Steely Dan]

in the latter half of the 20th century, "white flight" referred to the mass exodus of white people from central cities out into the suburban sprawl around them.

but here in the early decades of the 21st century, not only has large scale central city white flight largely stopped from most of the former leaders in that category (or even reversed itself in some cases), we're now seeing a newer phenomenon of most of the nation's 1M+ MSAs losing white popualtion at the metro area level.

now, for many of these, it's mostly driven by NH-white deaths outpacing NH-white births, so not really "flight" in the conventionally understood sense, but for the cities at the top of the list below, it's more than just that.

there seems to be a meaningful demographic shift of NH-white people moving out those MSAs altogether.


1M+ US MSAs by NH-white population change 2010 -2020 (total MSA growth in parenthesis)

Riverside: -12.4 (+8.9)
San Jose: -11.2 (+8.9)
Hartford: -10.7 (+0.1)
Fresno: -10.7 (+8.4)
Memphis: -9.1 (+1.6)
Miami: -7.9 (+10.3)
Baltimore: -7.8 (+4.9)
Chicago: -7.3 (+1.7)
Los Angeles: -7.3 (+2.9)
San Francisco: -6.6 (+9.5)
Rochester: -6.4 (+1.0)
Milwaukee: -5.9 (+1.2)
Providence: -5.8 (+4.7)
Buffalo: -5.7 (+2.8)
Tulsa: -5.7 (+8.3)
New York: -5.6 (+6.6)
Cleveland: -5.5 (+0.5)
San Diego: -5.2 (+6.6)
St. Louis: -5.1 (+1.2)
Pittsburgh: -5.0 (+0.6)
Philadelphia: -4.8 (+4.7)
Las Vegas: -4.6 (+16.1)
Virginia Beach: -4.2 (+5.0)
Detroit: -4.0 (+2.2)
New Orleans: -3.8 (+6.9)
Boston: -3.4 (+8.5)
Honolulu: -3.4 (+6.6)
Sacramento: -3.4 (+11.6)
Washington: -2.2 (+13.0)
Louisville: -2.1 (+6.9)
Cincinnati: -1.9 (+5.6)
Birmingham: -1.5 (+5.1)
Tucson: -0.9 (+6.4)
Atlanta: -0.8 (+15.2)
Seattle: -0.5 (+16.8)

Oklahoma City: +0.1 (+13.8)
Tampa: +0.5 (+14.1)
Kansas City: +0.7 (+9.1)
Minneapolis: +0.8 (+10.7)
Indianapolis: +1.1 (+11.8)
Columbus: +1.4 (+12.5)
Portland: +1.7 (+12.9)
Dallas: +2.2 (+20.0)
Orlando: +2.2 (+25.3)
Houston: +2.5 (+20.3)
Grand Rapids: +3.0 (+9.5)
Richmond: +3.2 (+10.8)
Phoenix: +5.6 (+15.6)
Salt Lake City: +5.9 (+15.6)
Charlotte: +6.6 (+18.6)
Jacksonville: +7.7 (+19.3)
Denver: +8.4 (+16.5)
San Antonio: +8.4 (+19.4)
Nashville: +11.6 (+20.9)
Raleigh: +14.9 (+25.1)
Austin: +20.7 (+33.0)

source: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content..._-Populati.pdf

[Crawford]

White people really like Austin, Raleigh and Nashville, apparently. That pretty much confirms stereotypes.

[iheartthed]

I don't think percentages are a great way to talk about this. The non-Hispanic white population can be growing and also declining as a percentage of total population.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't think percentages are a great way to talk about this. The non-Hispanic white population can be growing and also declining as a percentage of total population.

the percentages in the list are not relative growth in NH-white popualtion, but the actual percentage decline/growth of that group in absolute numercial terms.

the NH-white population of Chicago's MSA decreased by 7.3% last decade, and increased by 8.4% in Denver's MSA, and so on.

[Yuri]

US White population fell by 5 million between 2010-2020. US Whites are already a shrinking demographic. It will be increasingly difficult to find their population growing in any metro area.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

the percentages in the list are not relative growth in NH-white popualtion, but the actual percentage decline/growth of that group in absolute numercial terms.

the NH-white population of Chicago's MSA decreased by 7.3% last decade, and increased by 8.4% in Denver's MSA, and so on.

Got it. So another thing I will point out is that "flight" might be the wrong characterization. It could very well be that there is an overall reduction in the number of people who are identifying as white (either through mortality, racial mixing, changes in identification, etc). This would show up in slower growing metros more apparently than faster growing.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

US White population fell by 5 million between 2010-2020. US Whites are already a shrinking demographic. It will be increasingly difficult to find their population growing in any metro area.

right, but that's only a 2.7% drop in numerical terms, so many of the MSAs on the list above are seeing NH-white declines significantly larger than the national average.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Got it. So another thing I will point out is that "flight" might be the wrong characterization. It could very well be that there is an overall reduction in the number of people who are identifying as white (either through mortality, racial mixing, changes in identification, etc). This would show up in slower growing metros more apparently than faster growing.

I wonder if this is a primary reason for certain areas that are already diverse, rather than NHWs moving out necessarily. Older NHWs dying out, and newer mixed ones being born/in the pipeline. Although for newborn mixed ones, who determines their race? Is it the parents?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Yuri

US White population fell by 5 million between 2010-2020. US Whites are already a shrinking demographic. It will be increasingly difficult to find their population growing in any metro area.

It's worth noting there were slight changes in how peoples race was counted/reported from the 2010 to the 2020 census. This caused the number of Latinos who were identified as white to drop by 53%, with the bulk of them apparently shifting to self-identified as two or more races. This may have happened slightly on the margins with people who formerly self-identified as non-Hispanic white as well, though I would guess that many of these cases were "marginal" cases like people of Middle Eastern ancestry where the white/non-white identity isn't always clear.

That said, I have seen a growing number of young people of 100% Euro background (like say young Italians) who are trying to claim they aren't white, more or less because people always presume they are Hispanic/mixed anyway, so they're not really afforded white privilege.

[eschaton]

Unfortunately I don't think the Census tracks domestic migration by race, so I don't think we could really determine if white outflows from one metro to another are being caused by domestic migration vs the other factors (change in self-identity, demographic churn, etc.)

That said, the median age of white Americans is way higher than minority groups (44, versus in the 30s or even late 20s for the other groups). As a result, we can presume that domestic migration due to retirement will almost always have a "white flight" impact on the metro as a whole.

[llamaorama]

I feel like you’d need to demonstrate there’s an actual pattern and not just coincidence. Some cities come with higher or lower NH white pops and have more or less growth or outmigration.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

I feel like you’d need to demonstrate there’s an actual pattern and not just coincidence..

the thread title is posed as a question for a reason.

the data is the data. the conclusions are where your input would be welcome.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting there were slight changes in how peoples race was counted/reported from the 2010 to the 2020 census. This caused the number of Latinos who were identified as white to drop by 53%, with the bulk of them apparently shifting to self-identified as two or more races. This may have happened slightly on the margins with people who formerly self-identified as non-Hispanic white as well, though I would guess that many of these cases were "marginal" cases like people of Middle Eastern ancestry where the white/non-white identity isn't always clear.

That said, I have seen a growing number of young people of 100% Euro background (like say young Italians) who are trying to claim they aren't white, more or less because people always presume they are Hispanic/mixed anyway, so they're not really afforded white privilege.

Yes, and now it better represents reality. The other model induced Hispanics to check White.

That, however, hasn’t impacted NH Whites. With low TFR, stagnant/declining life expectancy, high average age, it’s a not a surprise. When baby boomers start to die out from 2030, this decline will become even more pronounced.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I wonder if this is a primary reason for certain areas that are already diverse, rather than NHWs moving out necessarily. Older NHWs dying out, and newer mixed ones being born/in the pipeline. Although for newborn mixed ones, who determines their race? Is it the parents?

^This. White-Hispanic inter-marrying generally leads to "Hispanic" children for census purposes. I'm white, my wife is half white, half Cuban (but whiter than me) but the children were "Hispanic" (since my wife filled out the census )

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by JManc

^ I think the line between white and Hispanic/ Latino will blur and eventually disappear between intermarriage and ambiguity over what "Hispanic" really is.

Today Brazil is about 42% White (and falling) and 48% Mixed (which are between 55%-70% European average according to several genetic samples) and they are well-defined, opposed groups, with massive difference on income and education attainment, despite racial issues being historically way more fluid here than in the US.

Given 80% of US Hispanics are Mixed (or 15% of the country's population), I don't think it's that simple to have them completely absorbed into the Whites (60% of population). It would be a very long and slow process.

[Docere]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...merica/619190/

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Got it. So another thing I will point out is that "flight" might be the wrong characterization. It could very well be that there is an overall reduction in the number of people who are identifying as white (either through mortality, racial mixing, changes in identification, etc). This would show up in slower growing metros more apparently than faster growing.

right, would be interesting to look at Other/mixed growth. I'm white, my wife is Asian so our daughter is... Other?

[theOGalexd]

Originally Posted by JManc

^ I think the line between white and Hispanic/ Latino will blur and eventually disappear between intermarriage and ambiguity over what "Hispanic" really is.



He's Spanish so he would be considered white/ European.

It's pretty ambiguous as it is. I'd be really curious as to how many people in places like San Antonio/Houston/Dallas marked themselves as hispanic but in reality they're like 25%.

[badrunner]

Originally Posted by eschaton

It's worth noting there were slight changes in how peoples race was counted/reported from the 2010 to the 2020 census. This caused the number of Latinos who were identified as white to drop by 53%, with the bulk of them apparently shifting to self-identified as two or more races. This may have happened slightly on the margins with people who formerly self-identified as non-Hispanic white as well, though I would guess that many of these cases were "marginal" cases like people of Middle Eastern ancestry where the white/non-white identity isn't always clear.

That said, I have seen a growing number of young people of 100% Euro background (like say young Italians) who are trying to claim they aren't white, more or less because people always presume they are Hispanic/mixed anyway, so they're not really afforded white privilege.

I'm sure that's happening as well. It wasn't just a simple change in the census form, there was a real cultural shift that took place between 2010 and 2020 that caused many Hispanics to no longer identify as white. It could be that a lot of multiracial people, who previously identified as NHW, no longer see an advantage in doing so.

[Yuri]

In 2010 (and all previous Census), about 60% of Hispanics checked White (and that's clearly not the case). In 2020, it fell to 20%, which seems closer to reality.

It's been discussed for a quite long time and this quirk helped to turn NH White mainstream, after all, simply White had became White+Hispanic on databases.

They finally corrected it: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blog...n-designs.html