The next metroplex in texas unfolds

[SLO]

Originally Posted by plinko

It's only 82 miles between Sacramento and San Francisco city limits...why not? Grab Stockton too, it's only 79 miles. Both already have significant commuter overlaps. That's what, another 3+ million for the Bay Area CSA?

Stockton is already in the Bay Area CSA, Sac? why not...

[theOGalexd]

Originally Posted by SLO

Stockton is already in the Bay Area CSA, Sac? why not...

Somewhat comparable. Wouldn't be too far fetched but there's also a lot of empty space between Sac and Vallejo and I don't think Sacramento is growing that way.

There's really only a 5 minute gap of farm land between San Marcos and New Braunfels and it's closing fast. I don't see a SA-AUS MSA happening but a CSA could very well be a case in a decade or so. Hays and Comal county are growing extremely fast and the biggest influx of people to SA is from Austin.

I'm not sure how the commuting patterns are defined by the census but I'm sure there's people commuting from New Braunfels to both SA and Austin.

[C.]

It's 80 miles per Google Maps between the center of these two cities. There metro areas touch right now, but there is still lots of open land in between them. If we continue to see rapid growth in both metros, I'm thinking in 30 or so years they may merge into one metro area like Dallas-Forth Worth.

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area: 2,601,788
Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area: 2,352,426

San Antonio-Austin-Round Rock, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area: 4,954,214‬

[BG918]

Eventually it will happen, 30 years is probably correct. Too bad the two communities didn’t build a joint international airport.

[KevinFromTexas]

Yeah, I laugh at the metroplex suggestion about Austin and San Antonio since, yeah, we are a bit too far to be considered one metro or even one region. Even if some of our development nodes were to inch closer together, I still think it's a stretch, especially since most of the "development nodes" are pretty much contained within the city boundaries already, and in Austin's case, most are on the north side of the city away from San Antonio. And there is still A LOT of open rural land between both cities even between our two big suburbs down there - San Marcos (Austin) and New Braunfels (San Antonio). Even the outskirts of Austin and San Antonio's city limits are still around 50 miles apart.

I hear it occasionally in the media, but most Austinites don't suggest it, and neither do many San Antonians.

For me, never mind the considerations about how much space is still left open between the two, it really comes down to how connected our economies are. Is Austin's economy influencing San Antonio's? Maybe, and are they getting some overflow residents who would have moved to Austin but decided not to because of prices, and scoffed at living in a suburb and decided on San Antonio instead? Maybe, but it's not like our two city governments are coming together on the economy of some singular region - vying for and announcing the relocation of companies. That hasn't happened. And 25 years ago when Austin approached San Antonio about building a regional international airport, San Antonio's leaders pretty much laughed at the thought and said no. Subsequently, during that time Austin's airport surpassed San Antonio's in pretty much every way that matters.

[C.]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

Yeah, I laugh at the metroplex suggestion about Austin and San Antonio since, yeah, we are a bit too far to be considered one metro or even one region. Even if some of our development nodes were to inch closer together, I still think it's a stretch, especially since most of the "development nodes" are pretty much contained within the city boundaries already, and in Austin's case, most are on the north side of the city away from San Antonio. And there is still A LOT of open rural land between both cities even between our two big suburbs down there - San Marcos (Austin) and New Braunfels (San Antonio). Even the outskirts of Austin and San Antonio's city limits are still around 50 miles apart.

I hear it occasionally in the media, but most Austinites don't suggest it, and neither do many San Antonians.

But it's not the media or common citizen that determines if it's a metro area or not. It's the U.S. Census Bureau.

From my understanding, MSA are all based on population and commuting statistics that determines which counties are included in a MSA. Texas' largest cities will continue to grow and with Austin being the tech magnet that it is, I can see some consolidation in future.

[KevinFromTexas]

I know, which is my point. There is a lot of hype around it, but I think at this point that's all it is. And considering that larger metros that are of relative proximity to each other also are not yet a "metroplex" - I think it's safe to say Austin and San Antonio won't be either for the foreseeable future.

We have some friends who worked for AT&T during the 90s who lived in Austin and commuted to San Antonio before finally moving to New Braunfels to cut their commute in half. It happens, but it's not happening on a large enough scale yet to make either city part of the other's metro.

[craigs]

The Census Bureau doesn't define MSAs and CSAs--the Bureau of Labor Statistics does that, traditionally based on commuting data.

I wonder if the pandemic-induced move to work from home will force them to change the formula a bit.

[mrnyc]

^ i never thought about that. i would think they will wait a bit longer and see what shakes out. or maybe make an asterisk season.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by craigs

The Census Bureau doesn't define MSAs and CSAs--the Bureau of Labor Statistics does that, traditionally based on commuting data.

I wonder if the pandemic-induced move to work from home will force them to change the formula a bit.

This is incorrect. The BLS simply publishes many of their statistics at the MSA level.

The Census Bureau defines and publishes Urban Areas (UAs) on the basis of Urban and Rural geographies they also define.

The Office of Management and Budget’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs then uses those UAs and other agencies’ data to define and delineate MSAs, mSAs, and CSAs (all three comprise what are called CBSAs, Core Based Statistical Areas).

Originally Posted by craigs

The Census Bureau doesn't define MSAs and CSAs--the Bureau of Labor Statistics does that, traditionally based on commuting data.

I wonder if the pandemic-induced move to work from home will force them to change the formula a bit.

That will be a question for 2031. The current decade will be using guidelines already established (established during the pandemic, no less).

Census Bureau Urban Area 2020s guidelines:

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...final-criteria

Office of Management and Budget Core Based Statistical Area 2020s guidelines:

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

[wwmiv]

Delete

[mrnyc]

^ well alrighty then that answers that.

[craigs]

I did not address who defines UAs.

Are you saying the Office of Budget and Management defines MSAs and CSAs, or is it some other entity?

Originally Posted by wwmiv

This is incorrect. The BLS simply publishes many of their statistics at the MSA level.

The Census Bureau defines and publishes Urban Areas (UAs) on the basis of Urban and Rural geographies they also define.

The Office of Management and Budget’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs then uses those UAs and other agencies’ data to define and delineate MSAs, mSAs, and CSAs (all three comprise what are called CBSAs, Core Based Statistical Areas).



That will be a question for 2031. The current decade will be using guidelines already established (established during the pandemic, no less).

Census Bureau Urban Area 2020s guidelines:

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...final-criteria

Office of Management and Budget Core Based Statistical Area 2020s guidelines:

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...tistical-areas

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by C.

It's 80 miles per Google Maps between the center of these two cities. There metro areas touch right now, but there is still lots of open land in between them. If we continue to see rapid growth in both metros, I'm thinking in 30 or so years they may merge into one metro area like Dallas-Forth Worth.‬

i still remain very skeptical that SA/Austin will ever gel into a single kind of place like Dallas/Forth Worth.


as the crow flies,

downtown dallas to downtown fort worth: 31 miles

downtown san antonio to downtown austin: 73 miles


distance matters.




here are some other major city pairs for referenece:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

some approximate downtown-to-downtown distances (as the crow flies) of commonly cited city pairs:


minneapolis -> st. paul: 9 miles (same MSA)

LA -> long beach: 20 miles (same MSA)

miami -> ft. lauderdale: 25 miles (same MSA)

seattle -> tacoma: 25 miles (same MSA)

dallas -> ft. worth: 31 miles (same MSA)

DC -> baltimore: 35 miles (same CSA)

boston -> providence: 41 miles (same CSA)

SF -> san jose: 42 miles (same CSA)



**** then a big gap ****



SF -> sacramento: 73 miles

austin -> san antonio: 73 miles

tampa -> orlando: 77 miles

NYC -> philly: 80 miles

chicago -> milwaukee: 81 miles

LA -> san diego: 112 miles

[MolsonExport]

Isn't all of East China a Metroplex?
Isn't all of South China a Metroplex?
Most of India?
Java?
Honshu?

[C.]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i still remain very skeptical that SA/Austin will ever gel into a single kind of place like Dallas/Forth Worth.


as the crow flies,

downtown dallas to downtown fort worth: 31 miles

downtown san antonio to downtown austin: 73 miles


distance matters.




here are some other major city pairs for referenece:

Ever is a long time. Will it happen by next Census? Probably not. But Texas is growing so fast that maybe in 30 years it may not be as unfeasible as it is today. Both cities have hot job markets and are growing rapidly for the foreseeable future.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by C.

Ever is a long time. Will it happen by next Census? Probably not. But Texas is growing so fast that maybe in 30 years it may not be as unfeasible as it is today. Both cities have hot job markets and are growing rapidly for the foreseeable future.

But that's the thing. There's a lot that can happen in 30 years. There's nothing right now that makes this a sure thing. Which markets are hot is almost certain to change at least to some degree, but who knows, it could be like California and enjoy a hundred years of growth. That still doesn't mean people are going to populate the area between SA and Austin densely. It seems like there's more reasons at this point based on geographic features and land use for that area to stay pretty rural except for a thin strip. In my opinion, that doesn't make a metroplex.

What is pretty much guaranteed is that these two cities will continue to strengthen their transit connections and both benefit. Excited for the high speed rail connection personally. It can't come soon enough.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

But that's the thing. There's a lot that can happen in 30 years. There's nothing right now that makes this a sure thing. Which markets are hot is almost certain to change at least to some degree, but who knows, it could be like California and enjoy a hundred years of growth. That still doesn't mean people are going to populate the area between SA and Austin densely. It seems like there's more reasons at this point based on geographic features and land use for that area to stay pretty rural except for a thin strip. In my opinion, that doesn't make a metroplex.

What is pretty much guaranteed is that these two cities will continue to strengthen their transit connections and both benefit. Excited for the high speed rail connection personally. It can't come soon enough.

Texas has never had a decade where it shrank in population according to Census counts. I don’t think Austin or San Antonio or their surroundings have ever grown beneath the state average for longer than a few years, let alone shrink.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by C.

Ever is a long time. Will it happen by next Census? Probably not. But Texas is growing so fast that maybe in 30 years it may not be as unfeasible as it is today. Both cities have hot job markets and are growing rapidly for the foreseeable future.

my point wasn't about growth, but about distance.

the two poles of the SA/Austin realm are simply too far away from each other to ever make them a singular place the way that dallas and forth worth have coalesced together.

those extra 42 miles of separation are a big deal.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by craigs

I did not address who defines UAs.

Are you saying the Office of Budget and Management defines MSAs and CSAs, or is it some other entity?

I am saying both. The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs is a sub-office within the Office of Management and Budget.

Stop being purposefully obtuse. You clearly have little-to-no actual knowledge to contribute to this topic.