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  #1981  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2019, 6:58 PM
TR Devlin TR Devlin is offline
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Chicago Public Schools

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Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago View Post

On top of that, where am I going to send my kids for High School? Lakeview High School??? The CPS is a disaster as well, so on top of the property tax increases, families need to prepare for private school as an alternative to High School.
I’ve lived in Chicago for about 45 years. I’ve seen many changes (mostly for the better) and one of the biggest has to do with the number of professional people raising their families in the City. In the 1970’s and 80’s single people in their twenties would move to Chicago. But then when they were in their thirties, they’d be married with a couple kids and when it was time for the kids to start school, they’d move to the suburbs.

Over the years this changed and now more people are deciding to stay and raise their kids in the City. Not everyone, of course, but a lot more than 40 years ago. I think a lot of this has to do with the improvements in the public schools. Today, people pay a premium to live what they think is a good school district (e.g., Bell Elementary). And the top five high schools in the state are all CPS schools.

I have a boy who’s in his twenties now and at one time his goal was to go to Lane Tech. But he couldn’t get in and he ended up going to Gordon Tech (now DePaul College Prep). So it’s been a few years but I remember the family frustration of paying a lot for something that wasn’t our first choice.

And then you’ve got the teacher’s pension bullshit. I HATE the union for not being willing to contribute a nickel to solve that problem. But that’s a separate issue and I still think CPS has greatly improved over the years.

Finally, I know very little about Lakeview HS. When you say “CPS is a disaster” are you talking about all of CPS or just Lakeview?
I’d be interested in your thoughts on any of this.
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  #1982  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2019, 8:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago View Post
I hear you, but the reality is, the majority of families will not consider a condo as their "forever home" where they will raise their kids.
In that case, no top-tier urban US city will work for upper middle class families ($150K - $250K AGI) that demand nothing less than a renovated/new construction move-in ready detached SFH in a trendy urban neighborhood, unless you come from money or get a big fat inheritance or something like that.

The trendy urban neighborhoods in America's alpha level urban cities are simply way too urban to have anywhere near enough detached SFH's to meet the demand, thus they become the exclusive domain of the wealthy.

Only 10% of Lincoln Park's housing units are highly coveted detached SFH's. Hell, even all the way up here in Lincoln Square that percentage only goes up to 15%. So of course there's a huge price premium for such a staunchly limited, extremely desired commodity.

That pattern is repeated in all of the big urban US cities: NYC, Boston, LA, SF, etc. If you ain't rich, then you ain't getting no fancy SFH in a desirable urban neighborhood.

However, IF you can get over the "shame" of living in a multi-unit flat building, then Chicago does have a wealth of good options for larger family-sized units that people in that upper middle class bracket can very much afford.

And yes one of the reasons those kinds of units are so much less expensive than a comparably sized SFH is the fact that a large percentage of upper middle class people with families simply won't accept anything less than a SFH, so off to the burbs they go.

My wife and I almost ended up following them out there until we came to agree that location was more important to us than a SFH. So, Lincoln Square > Skokie, for us. many other families choose differently.

If you're not stinking rich, you're gonna have to make compromises somewhere along the line.
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  #1983  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2019, 9:37 PM
Investing In Chicago Investing In Chicago is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
In that case, no top-tier urban US city will work for upper middle class families ($150K - $250K AGI) that demand nothing less than a renovated/new construction move-in ready detached SFH in a trendy urban neighborhood, unless you come from money or get a big fat inheritance or something like that.

The trendy urban neighborhoods in America's alpha level urban cities are simply way too urban to have anywhere near enough detached SFH's to meet the demand, thus they become the exclusive domain of the wealthy.

Only 10% of Lincoln Park's housing units are highly coveted detached SFH's. Hell, even all the way up here in Lincoln Square that percentage only goes up to 15%. So of course there's a huge price premium for such a staunchly limited, extremely desired commodity.

That pattern is repeated in all of the big urban US cities: NYC, Boston, LA, SF, etc. If you ain't rich, then you ain't getting no fancy SFH in a desirable urban neighborhood.

However, IF you can get over the "shame" of living in a multi-unit flat building, then Chicago does have a wealth of good options for larger family-sized units that people in that upper middle class bracket can very much afford.

And yes one of the reasons those kinds of units are so much less expensive than a comparably sized SFH is the fact that a large percentage of upper middle class people with families simply won't accept anything less than a SFH, so off to the burbs they go.

My wife and I almost ended up following them out there until we came to agree that location was more important to us than a SFH. So, Lincoln Square > Skokie, for us. many other families choose differently.

If you're not stinking rich, you're gonna have to make compromises somewhere along the line.
Again, I hear you. I grew up in Manhattan, in a small apartment, I understand the trade offs.

However, what I'm saying is the reality in Chicago, upper middle class families typically do not want neighbors above or below them - and more often than not will not consider condos.

Upper middle class families may stick it out in a condo in the city with kids too young for CPS or may even hang around through a few years of K-8, but the majority of Upper Middle Class families will not stay in the condo for their kids entire school age - the MLS data supports this (I'm a licensed RE agent in Illinois) and Condo's typically sell every 5 years.

My bigger point is families who would consider staying in the city and moving to a bigger home, are looking at 2 hurdles in 2019:

1. Property Tax burden: There is too much uncertainty with the City and it's financial mess, and buyers don't want to risk purchasing a SFH at the top of their budget only to find they've had a major property tax increase.

2. CPS: The question I hear quite a bit is "where will I send my kids to High School?" - the vast majority who can afford it, send their kids to private schools. I live 2 blocks from Blaine Elementary (One of the top K-8 schools in the city) and I've yet to see a family have their kid finish there, about 5 or 6th grade they start thinking about HS, and literally 100% of families have bailed for the city for the burbs for a more stable HS situation.

I don't know if it's that the average midwest family requires/desires more space than a typical NYC / SF / Boston family but I see families in those cities sacrifice space in a way that the typical Upper Middle Class Chicago family will not. Just an observation, but my personal experience.
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  #1984  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2019, 9:37 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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I don't know what y'all are talking about. I am buying a big ass SFH that's in Belding school district, a block from a big park, a couple blocks from both a metra and a blue line stop, a couple blocks from the highway, on an extra deep double lot for a hair over $300k... The taxes are only $6500 or so a year.

The problem only exists when people ignore the other vast sections of the city that sit right on the edge of these desirable areas, but don't have a full scale Milwaukee Ave in Logan Square yuppie boom going on. I could probably find you 200 SFH around the city in areas like this in 5 minutes of searching on Redfin.
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  #1985  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2019, 3:47 PM
OrdoSeclorum OrdoSeclorum is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
I don't know what y'all are talking about. I am buying a big ass SFH that's in Belding school district, a block from a big park, a couple blocks from both a metra and a blue line stop, a couple blocks from the highway, on an extra deep double lot for a hair over $300k... The taxes are only $6500 or so a year.

The problem only exists when people ignore the other vast sections of the city that sit right on the edge of these desirable areas, but don't have a full scale Milwaukee Ave in Logan Square yuppie boom going on. I could probably find you 200 SFH around the city in areas like this in 5 minutes of searching on Redfin.
I was about to write this same thing. My wife and I are looking and a lot of places I see I think "that would be way out of our price range", I'll look on Zillow and see that it's about $600K or something. And the public schools in Chicago are actually pretty good. My nephew went to elementary school in Edgewater a few years ago and it was delightful.

The livability in Chicago only seems bad until you realize that every other city is worse. If you're willing to accept car dependent sprawl, I'm sure you can find someplace cheaper. If you want to live in a city, Chicago is and will remain the best bang for the buck I know of.
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  #1986  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2019, 3:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago View Post
However, what I'm saying is the reality in Chicago, upper middle class families typically do not want neighbors above or below them - and more often than not will not consider condos.
three things:

1. i think you and i have different ideas of what what constitutes "upper middle class" in chicago. you're talking about 7 figure houses, and that's straight-up upper class in chicago IMO. UMC would be more like $400,000 - $700,000 houses, based on the general rule of thumb that home price should ideally be ~2.5x household AGI.

2. we know many upper middle class people raising their families in mulit-family (including ourselves). the most common version is those who have bought a 2-flat and duplex-downed the 1st floor/basement into their "forever home" and then have an upstairs tenant to pay the property taxes for them.

3. what upper middle class people do or do not not do isn't ultimately that much of a concern to me. i was simply pushing back against your assertion that chicago is too expensive for upper middle class people to raise families in. i would argue the exact opposite. compared against the other 1st tier urban cities in america, chicago has an unbelievable amount of family-sized housing at utterly bargain-basement prices compared to NYC, SF, boston, LA, etc. and as LDVW pointed-out, chicago is also blessed with the "go one more neighborhood over" thing where, if houses are too expensive in "A", go a mile west to "B" and they're 20% less expensive, and if that still doesn't work, go another mile west over to "C" and prices drop even more. this is a big giant wide-open city, not some cute little constricted island or peninsula where everything larger than a one-bedroom is $750,000+.
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  #1987  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2019, 6:29 PM
BrinChi BrinChi is offline
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Affordable SFHs with easy transit

Or if you want an affordable SFH there is still plenty of places where you can afford one with good transit access. South Lakefront still has enough infill land to offer this affordably for at least the next 10 years:

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/35.../home/14072160

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/25.../home/14071231

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/36.../home/17285346

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/36.../home/22830617

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/60653...1125:-87.62883

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/41.../home/70653267

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/34...home/167724671

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/50.../home/17557878

Homes in this area are basically the cost of construction - with some premium for designer finishes. And quality retail is finally starting to trickle in.
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  #1988  
Old Posted Dec 9, 2019, 9:28 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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The.

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/44...m_content=link

"Affordable".

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/46...m_content=link

Housing.

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/35...m_content=link

"Crisis".

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/39...m_content=link

Is.

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/36...m_content=link

A.

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/36...m_content=link

Lie.

https://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/24...m_content=link

When you can buy a SFH in Logan Square with beautiful original features in great shape for $429k then you know anyone telling you housing in Chicago is not affordable is a dirty dirty liar. These links are not on the South side. These links are not dilapidated. These links are not far from the train. You won't be living in architectural digest, but last time I checked Onyx countertops and Wolf appliances are not a human right.
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  #1989  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 3:28 AM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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New Census data is out for 2018 and it's the type where you can calculate by community area. So in the spirit of things, here are the top 15 areas that grew between 2017 and 2018:

1. The Loop: +1767 people
2. Jefferson Park: +1181 people
3. Near North Side: +1102 people
4. Edgewater: +1057 people
5. West Ridge: +997 people
6. Lincoln Park: +987 people
7. South Shore: +931 people
8. South Chicago: +758 people
9. Belmont Cragin: +745 people
10. Near South Side: +723 people
11. Hyde Park: +690 people
12. Portage Park: +648 people
13. Avondale: +541 people
14. Douglas: +487 people
15. East Side: +459 people

Between 2010 and 2018, Near North Side, Near South Side, The Loop, and Near West Side have gained 50,840 people which is a growth rate of +31% (comparing ACS to ACS. If you compare Decennial Census to ACS then it's nearly +29,000 people growth or +15%). Combined population now at 214,718 people.
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  #1990  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 4:09 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Impressive to see Jeff Park running with the big dogs on there. Same with Avondale, Portage, and Belmont Craigin. Now that the spigot is turned off for all points South, expect a gentrifcation bomb to go off West of Central Park and North of Diversey across the far NW side...
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  #1991  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 4:28 PM
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Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
Impressive to see Jeff Park running with the big dogs on there. Same with Avondale, Portage, and Belmont Craigin. Now that the spigot is turned off for all points South, expect a gentrifcation bomb to go off West of Central Park and North of Diversey across the far NW side...
I am a little surprised by Jefferson park, it seems like business up there is suffering just from the eye test. I just read yesterday that CVS at Lawrence and Milwaukee is closing, meaning that 3/4 corners of the intersection are vacant...

But this makes me glad, no reason that neighborhood shouldn't be popular with it's connectivity via blue line/Metra and proximity to the expressway and airport.
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  #1992  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 5:33 PM
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Keep in mind this data is for 2018 and we're at the end of 2019 now. Jefferson Park is up 1279 people from 2010 to 2018. Here is a look at those changes from 2010 to 2018 by community area. 43 of 77 community areas are up in population since 2010.

The CAs that have grown since 2010 have grown by 108,718 people - nearly half of that is downtown. The growth rate of those areas is a combined 6.9%. The areas that have lost population total up to -86,976 people or a rate of -7.7%

1. The Loop: +17,654 people
2. Near North Side: +13776 people
3. Near West Side: +12945 people
4. Near South Side: +6465 people
5. West Ridge: +5143 people
6. Avondale: +4879 people
7. Lincoln Park: +4262 people
8. Lake View: +3357 people
9. Lincoln Square: +3296 people
10. North Center: +2311 people
11. Bridgeport: +2293 people
12. Uptown: +2084 people
13. South Lawndale: +2041 people
14. Humboldt Park: +1762 people
15. Douglas: +1744 people
16. Clearing: +1670 people
17. Hyde Park: +1639 people
18. Ashburn: +1604 people
19. Woodlawn: +1471 people
20. West Elsdon: +1429 people
21. Dunning: +1391 people
22. Riverdale: +1374 people
23. Grand Boulevard: +1319 people
24. Portage Park: +1317 people
25. Jefferson Park: +1279 people
26. Oakland: +1015 people
27. Garfield Ridge: +1012 people
28. Washington Park: +877 people
29. Brighton Park: +871 people
30. Mount Greenwood: +845 people
31. Montclare: +740 people
32. West Town: +709 people
33. Edison Park: +597 people
34. O'Hare: +564 people
35. Morgan Park: +499 people
36. Belmont Cragin: +495 people
37. Gage Park: +452 people
38. Edgewater: +417 people
39. South Shore: +320 people
40. McKinley Park: +294 people
41. Forest Glen: +259 people
42. Armour Square: +124 people
43. Archer Heights: +123 people
44. Rogers Park: -134 people
45. East Garfield Park: -145 people
46. Avalon Park: -163 people
47. Washington Heights: -289 people
48. Norwood Park: -290 people
49. North Park: -437 people
50. West Lawn: -522 people
51. Kenwood: -596 people
52. Fuller Park: -740 people
53. Pullman: -907 people
54. East Side: -986 people
55. Hermosa: -1094 people
56. Burnside: -1096 people
57. Beverly: -1119 people
58. Irving Park: -1188 people
59. North Lawndale: -1284 people
60. Albany Park: -1333 people
61. Hegewisch: -1551 people
62. South Deering: -1561 people
63. Logan Square: -1763 people
64. Calumet Heights: -1998 people
65. Chicago Lawn: -2120 people
66. West Garfield Park: -2382 people
67. Lower West Side: -2719 people
68. South Chicago: -3415 people
69. Greater Grand Crossing: -4034 people
70. New City: -4040 people
71. Chatham: -4370 people
72. Austin: -4824 people
73. West Pullman: -5895 people
74. Roseland: -6540 people
75. Auburn Gresham: -7730 people
76. Englewood: -9240 people
77. West Englewood: -10,471 people
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  #1993  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 5:37 PM
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Here's some random foreign born changes from 2017 to 2018.

Born in China, change from 2017 to 2018:
1. McKinley Park: +563 people
2. Near North Side: +534 people
3. The Loop: +327 people
4. Lincoln Park: +261 people
5. Lake View: +171 people
6. Douglas: +162 people
7. O'Hare: +92 people
8. Woodlawn: +88 people
9. Near West Side: +82 people
10. Brighton Park: +70 people

Born in India, change from 2017 to 2018:
1. O'Hare: +673 people
2. Near North Side: +338 people
3. Near West Side: +258 people
4. The Loop: +249 people
5. Douglas: +204 people
6. Lake View: +128 people
7. Lincoln Park: +117 people
8. Jefferson Park: +84 people
9. Bridgeport: +54 people
10. Forest Glen: +51 people

Born in Mexico, change from 2017 to 2018
1. South Shore: +295 people
2. West Englewood: +190 people
3. Garfield Ridge: +153 people
4. Dunning: +143 people
5. Ashburn: +136 people
6. The Loop: +135 people
7. Forest Glen: +127 people
8. Clearing: +118 people
9. Armour Square: +95 people
10. South Chicago: +79 people
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  #1994  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 6:29 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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2018 data for ACS was released a few days ago. Here are the changes by community area for households earning $100K+. Out of the 77 community areas in town, 74 of them gained households making $100K+.

6 community areas in 2018 have over 50% of households earning $100K+ with a 7th barely below 50% (Near North Side). In 2017 that was at 3 community areas and in 2016, it was only 1 community area.

1. Near North Side: +2003 households
2. West Town: +1438 households
3. Logan Square: +1176 households
4. Lincoln Park: +1154 households
5. The Loop: +906 households
6. Lake View: +905 households
7. Edgewater: +893 households
8. Irving Park: +845 households
9. Uptown: +719 households
10. Austin: +662 households
11. Near South Side: +654 households
12. Norwood Park: +649 households
13. North Center: +628 households
14. Avondale: +600 households
15. Dunning: +583 households
16. Rogers Park: +496 households
17. Portage Park: +484 households
18. Jefferson Park: +401 households
19. Grand Boulevard: +348 households
20. Albany Park: +345 households
21. Bridgeport: +343 households
22. Near West Side: +332 households
23. Belmont Cragin: +314 households
24. Morgan Park: +314 households
25. West Ridge: +301 households
26. Lower West Side: +286 households
27. Humboldt Park: +281 households
28. Mount Greenwood: +268 households
29. Garfield Ridge: +262 households
30. Washington Heights: +261 households
31. Beverly: +239 households
32. South Shore: +236 households
33. Hyde Park: +234 households
34. West Pullman: +227 households
35. O'Hare: +188 households
36. Auburn Gresham: +176 households
37. Ashburn: +163 households
38. Woodlawn: +156 households
39. South Chicago: +154 households
40. South Lawndale: +143 households
41. West Lawn: +139 households
42. Chicago Lawn: +137 households
43. North Park: +131 households
44. Douglas: +129 households
45. Montclare: +127 households
46. Brighton Park: +126 households
47. Lincoln Square: +125 households
48. South Deering: +120 households
49. Gage Park: +114 households
50. Englewood: +114 households
51. West Elsdon: +112 households
52. Kenwood: +107 households
53. McKinley Park: +105 households
54. Pullman: +98 households
55. West Englewood: +93 households
56. North Lawndale: +91 households
57. Avalon Park: +82 households
58. East Side: +77 households
59. Washington Park: +76 households
60. Greater Grand Crossing: +67 households
61. Hermosa: +63 households
62. Roseland: +60 households
63. New City: +60 households
64. Forest Glen: +59 households
65. West Garfield Park: +52 households
66. Edison Park: +47 households
67. Hegewisch: +45 households
68. Clearing: +41 households
69. Calumet Heights: +38 households
70. Burnside: +35 households
71. Riverdale: +35 households
72. Oakland: +19 households
73. Fuller Park: +8 households
74. Archer Heights: +1 household
75. East Garfield Park: -23 households
76. Armour Square: -32 households
77. Chatham: -32 households

Last edited by marothisu; Dec 20, 2019 at 6:41 PM.
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  #1995  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 6:46 PM
Chisouthside Chisouthside is offline
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Hi Marothisu,

Thank you for posting all this data. Also this is from 2010 to 2018 right?
If so looking at the data I wonder if a regression model would find a relationship with rising 100k households = lower population/higher population loss. Maybe neighborhoods like Englewood/West Englewood, Aubusn Gresham, Logan Square, Lower West Side, Rogers Park that lost population but gained 100k household might be enough to push the strength of the relationship between those two variables.
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  #1996  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 6:58 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
New Census data is out for 2018 and it's the type where you can calculate by community area. So in the spirit of things, here are the top 15 areas that grew between 2017 and 2018:

1. The Loop: +1767 people
2. Jefferson Park: +1181 people
3. Near North Side: +1102 people
4. Edgewater: +1057 people
5. West Ridge: +997 people
6. Lincoln Park: +987 people
7. South Shore: +931 people
8. South Chicago: +758 people
9. Belmont Cragin: +745 people
10. Near South Side: +723 people
11. Hyde Park: +690 people
12. Portage Park: +648 people
13. Avondale: +541 people
14. Douglas: +487 people
15. East Side: +459 people

Between 2010 and 2018, Near North Side, Near South Side, The Loop, and Near West Side have gained 50,840 people which is a growth rate of +31% (comparing ACS to ACS. If you compare Decennial Census to ACS then it's nearly +29,000 people growth or +15%). Combined population now at 214,718 people.
Apparently my post about this was deleted or something...

Impressive to see Jeff Park up there rolling with the big dogs. The whole far NW side is on this list which is interesting since the population of areas like Logan or Wicker Park actually fell significantly as the areas gentrified.
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  #1997  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 7:25 PM
marothisu marothisu is offline
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Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
Apparently my post about this was deleted or something...
I posted it in 2 different threads

Quote:
Impressive to see Jeff Park up there rolling with the big dogs. The whole far NW side is on this list which is interesting since the population of areas like Logan or Wicker Park actually fell significantly as the areas gentrified.
2017 to 2018 growth is impressive relatively. Always curious what 2019 data will say but we'll have to wait a year.
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  #1998  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 7:36 PM
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I posted it in 2 different threads
that's never a good idea because the resulting discussion just gets fragmented and confused.

hence why i've now moved all of your recent demographic info posts to the general discussions thread.
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  #1999  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 7:49 PM
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that's never a good idea because the resulting discussion just gets fragmented and confused.

hence why i've now moved all of your recent demographic info posts to the general discussions thread.
Sure. However, why was a post about household INCOME moved from the economics thread into this? That has everything to do with the economy of Chicago currently.
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  #2000  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2019, 8:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
why was a post about household INCOME moved from the economics thread into this?
because all of this neighborhood-level demographic data overlaps a great deal and its much cleaner to discuss all of it in one thread.

the business and economics thread should really be more of a catchall for one-off economic and business development stories.
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