Quote:
Originally Posted by ithakas
That would be amazing, thanks! I agree with 100k+ – it'll be exciting to experience Chicago take another step up in energy downtown, especially in some of the traditionally liminal areas.
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Now that I finally have time, here's my take on downtown's expected unit count over the next decade. To estimate this, first let's consider all the proposed & U/C units we know of thanks to this map from a forumer:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...638113428&z=14
The Loop
Here I'll consider the community area, which stretches down to Roosevelt. The area's underlying zoning allows for incredibly dense buildings, which is excellent since there aren't many developable sites left. 1000M and 525 S Wabash are examples, which each having +700 units. There have also been several office-to-residential conversions. As firms continue to relocate along the river and West Loop, there's huge potential for a lot of Class C and B office buildings to be converted to residential uses. Lakeshore East and Riverline/Southbank are expected to wrap up construction this decade. In total: ~
7,800 new units
West Loop
So West Loop, especially Fulton Market, has been on fire. For all the units proposed and under construction in just the last 2 years, we arrive at over 11k new units! About 7k of which is in Fulton Market. The funny thing is I might still be missing a proposal or two, since there's so much activity in the area. For an area with almost no residential suddenly approaching extreme densities, the only other precedent I can think of in the US is LIC or downtown Jersey City. In total for the past two years: ~
11,700 units!
Near South Side
This is a weird one since most of the planned units are in mega-developments (the 78 and One Central), which have massive uncertainties in financing and multi-year construction phases. So anywhere from 0 to 20k units could be built this decade. Let's take the low estimate that only the 78 is financed and they only build 5k units this decade. We also have projects such as the Harold Ickes redevelopment which is moving along, and NEMA phase 2 & 3 which is purely hypothetical. Taking all these together, the
rough estimate is: ~
7,500 units
Near North Side + River West
For anyone thinking there isn't enough activity in the northern part of downtown, you'd be mistaken. North Union, Halsted Point, Old Town Park, and the River District are mega-developments that are extending the skyline. Current plans for Cabrini-Green redevelopment places around ~3k new units. Dense developments such as WPE and One Chicago have opened, with several such as Tribune East and 400 N LSD possibly starting soon. The area around North/Clybourn has several new developments. I could keep going on, but the summary is there's a lot of activity going on. As of now, the area is expected to gain: ~
20,100 units!
Since the avg houshold size across downtown varies from 1.5 to 2.0 people, let's assume 1.75 ppl/hhold. 47,100 units x 1.75 ppl/hhold = ~
82,500 new residents!
Do note, we are
only two years into the 2020s and we are able to forecast ~82k new residents by the end of the decade. The next 8 years could easily double or even triple this number. It's very much possible we'll see additional megadevelopments over the next decade. For instance, the Old Post Office still has zoning approved for over 6,000 units. Streeterville has typically had some of the highest office vacancies in downtown, so I wouldn't be surprised if there were also large residential conversions. The location for the casino will have a major influence on some unit counts. If the 78 or One Central, then it's possible later phases will get built sooner, allowing for more units. If The River District is chosen, then the casino will take up most of the site and less units will be built.
Tl;dr even though these are estimates, they demonstrate downtown Chicago is still booming
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