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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2022, 3:23 AM
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Japan was literally a free range nursing home when I was last there. More old people than a Lawrence Welk tribute concert.
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2022, 6:21 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Japan was literally a free range nursing home when I was last there. More old people than a Lawrence Welk tribute concert.
Can I steal this for a t-shirt?

"JAPAN: free range nursing home since 1997"
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2022, 1:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Emprise du Lion View Post
Obviously metro St. Louis is going to be far cheaper than metro Los Angeles, but I am curious where they actually ended up. The article at first says, “near St. Louis,” but then switches to, “in St. Louis,” and you can barely rent a SFH with at least three bedrooms in St. Louis proper for $1,300 or less per month. I put the criteria into Zillow and I got all of three matches in the city. My guess is that they’re in an even less expensive suburb somewhere in Missouri or Illinois.
Good point. I think people overestimate how "cheap" the "good parts" of St. Louis are. Obviously, it's still a great deal compared to other similar sized metros, but it has also gotten increasingly expensive over the past few years. I actually think St. Louis is on the cusp of a major gentrification boom, particularly in the city and inner ring suburbs. It will be interesting to see how that plays out, because a boom even the half the size of a place like Nashville, Denver, or Tampa would make St. Louis unaffordable VERY fast.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2022, 1:42 PM
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Originally Posted by llamaorama View Post
Nobody goes there anymore it’s too crowded.
this
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2022, 3:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
That sounds like basically every project in the U.S. nowadays. Our level of national dysfunction re. getting anything done is shameful and absurd.

Advocates have tried to get a bike lane installed on the Verrazano Bridge (bridge connecting Brooklyn to Staten Island) since forever. In their 60's-era wisdom, they "forgot" to have any pedestrian or bike access in a city where most households don't have vehicles. Now the MTA claims that bike/pedestrian access will cost a cool $320-$370 million. For a freaking bike lane.

Can someone just go out in the middle of the night and repaint the lanes, please?
I'm guessing the reason for the high price tag is because they'll need to build a new ramp to the surface streets since the current traffic lanes feed directly into the freeway from the bridge.
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  #46  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2022, 3:59 PM
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Immigration means:

City-building

Continuing to evolve as a culture, as we always have

More diverse and interesting cities

More workforce/dependent balance

...

And yes, to state the obvious, immigration doesn't create people. It simply relocates them.
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  #47  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2022, 5:20 PM
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these kinds of "expensive cities are expensive, so some middle class people are now moving to less expensive cities" articles now seem to be a permanent fixture of our general media background noise.

here's one from a decade ago about people moving to cincinnati from expensive coastal cities:

AFFORDABLE CITIES ARE THE NEW SWEET SPOTS
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 1, 2022 at 5:46 PM.
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  #48  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2022, 6:07 PM
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I have yet to read the article you posted Steely, but when I read the first sentence, I paused and wondered what the numbers are for transplants who leave the expensive city vs. natives of that now-expensive city who decide to leave.
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  #49  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2022, 9:05 PM
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It's from purveyors of the cars and sprawl model...
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  #50  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 1:23 AM
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Originally Posted by EastSideHBG View Post
There were always expensive places and areas that "normal people" couldn't afford but why I think we are seeing more of these articles is because in many major metros there is now hardly anywhere affordable and nothing one can realistically aim for. In looking around my own area what I would consider to be starter homes are now pushing $700K and some of these are just regular old 60s-70s built single family homes with 3BR and 1.5 bathrooms that need some work that won't be cheap to complete. Five years ago this same house would have been half that and within reach for an important demographic.

Interesting times for sure.
define "your area". this feels like a comic exaggeration. i don't know exactly where you live but there is still attainable housing even in Chester County.

also, the public is going to have to realize and in short order that SFH are no longer going to the standard go forward. even in the philadelphia region, where housing is less expensive than other northeastern metros, SFH in new developments have, over the last 20 years, gone from being set on, say, 1/2 acre to a 1/3 to 1/5 to now often times 1/10 of an acre. toll is building million dollar SFH on 0.15 acre all over the region.
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  #51  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 2:01 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
define "your area". this feels like a comic exaggeration.
Plymouth Meeting, East Norriton, Blue Bell...a few examples:

2018 - $385,600
Now - $650,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2.../9999602_zpid/

2020 - $281,000
Now - $595,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...10077699_zpid/

I am familiar with this one and it needs some exterior work:

2018 - $339,800
Now - $486,600
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...10003941_zpid/

New construction is pushing $900K: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...10004069_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...10002676_zpid/

So not a "comic exaggeration" and my point stands that even a few years ago some of the nothing too special and what can be starter houses were far more affordable than they are now.

Quote:
i don't know exactly where you live but there is still attainable housing even in Chester County.
There are usually going to be examples the further out you go but this is not a viable option for many. And the, "Just go further out," is the opposite of what we should be aiming for.
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Last edited by EastSideHBG; Nov 2, 2022 at 2:19 PM.
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  #52  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 2:40 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by EastSideHBG View Post
Plymouth Meeting, East Norriton, Blue Bell...a few examples:

2018 - $385,600
Now - $650,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2.../9999602_zpid/

2020 - $281,000
Now - $595,000
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...10077699_zpid/

I am familiar with this one and it needs some exterior work:

2018 - $339,800
Now - $486,600
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...10003941_zpid/

New construction is pushing $900K: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...10004069_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...10002676_zpid/

So not a "comic exaggeration" and my point stands that even a few years ago some of the nothing too special and what can be starter houses were far more affordable than they are now.


There are usually going to be examples the further out you go but this is not a viable option for many. And the, "Just go further out," is the opposite of what we should be aiming for.
East Norriton has a lot of real estate sub $300K and of course there's Norristown itself. Bridgeport also has some affordable options.

That listing in Blue Bell is comically overpriced. Even they know it, as evidenced by the $50K plus price chop.
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  #53  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 2:53 PM
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What is wrong with those prices? Those aren't particularly high prices for national standards. Two middle class earners can afford those SFHs.

Philly is a large, desirable, high income metro, and these are nice suburbs, with good schools. Why would SFH be cheap?
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  #54  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 3:47 PM
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Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
East Norriton has a lot of real estate sub $300K and of course there's Norristown itself. Bridgeport also has some affordable options.

That listing in Blue Bell is comically overpriced. Even they know it, as evidenced by the $50K plus price chop.
There is not a lot of sub-$300K real estate available right now and that is not pending a sale and that will actually sell for that (over asking price is still going on here but that does seem to be cooling a bit due to the interest rates and the other factors).

Norristown is awful, I lived there for many years and it also has some of the highest income and property taxes in the county and Bridgeport is starting to head in the same direction so not viable options for a young family starting out who want safety and a good QOL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
What is wrong with those prices? Those aren't particularly high prices for national standards. Two middle class earners can afford those SFHs.

Philly is a large, desirable, high income metro, and these are nice suburbs, with good schools. Why would SFH be cheap?
$300K vs $500K for the same house is an issue here for an important demographic. And many of the comments I see about the Philly area are no longer applicable, as we have shot up in many categories:

Philadelphia's housing expenses are 11% higher than the national average and the utility prices are 10% higher than the national average. Transportation expenses like bus fares and gas prices are 13% higher than the national average.

https://www.payscale.com/research/US...phia-PA/Salary
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  #55  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2022, 5:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
these kinds of "expensive cities are expensive, so some middle class people are now moving to less expensive cities" articles now seem to be a permanent fixture of our general media background noise.

here's one from a decade ago about people moving to cincinnati from expensive coastal cities:

AFFORDABLE CITIES ARE THE NEW SWEET SPOTS

^That blog post is from 2014.

They bought a charming four bedroom century old home in an historic neighborhood a couple of miles from downtown for $50,000. Their mortgage is $300 a month. Okay, with tax and insurance it’s more like $500. And it wasn’t a fixer-upper in a slum. It’s a genuinely lovely place with amazing neighbors.

You definitely could get a move-in ready 2-bedroom or maybe a 3-bedroom back in 2014 for $50,000. I'm not so sure about a 4-bedroom, or at least a "real" 4-bedroom, not one where they call the attic a bedroom.

Today, prices are typically 3-5X what they were in 2014.
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  #56  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2022, 2:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
What is wrong with those prices? Those aren't particularly high prices for national standards. Two middle class earners can afford those SFHs.
Two UPPER middle class earners can but most of the middle class cannot swing a $500k mortgage.
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  #57  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2022, 6:13 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by EastSideHBG View Post
There is not a lot of sub-$300K real estate available right now and that is not pending a sale and that will actually sell for that (over asking price is still going on here but that does seem to be cooling a bit due to the interest rates and the other factors).

Norristown is awful, I lived there for many years and it also has some of the highest income and property taxes in the county and Bridgeport is starting to head in the same direction so not viable options for a young family starting out who want safety and a good QOL.


$300K vs $500K for the same house is an issue here for an important demographic. And many of the comments I see about the Philly area are no longer applicable, as we have shot up in many categories:

Philadelphia's housing expenses are 11% higher than the national average and the utility prices are 10% higher than the national average. Transportation expenses like bus fares and gas prices are 13% higher than the national average.

https://www.payscale.com/research/US...phia-PA/Salary
Yes, I know Norristown is not a great place. But that's my point. The Philadelphia region has more than its fair share of not so great suburban towns (even though most are exemplary IMO esp compared to other metros) precisely because it's always been so cheap to leave them. The thing that will resurrect Norristown and Coatesville and Downingtown and Inner Delco will be higher home prices in the region.

Forever in this metro people with a $100K income have thought it a god given right to live in frankly extraordinary towns that by any measure are exceptional. Well guess what. Those days are over.
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  #58  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2022, 6:18 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Two UPPER middle class earners can but most of the middle class cannot swing a $500k mortgage.
OK, granted, but these are upper middle class towns. Why would moderate income households easily afford new or renovated SFHs in upper middle class towns in close-in suburbs of one of our largest cities?

Metro Detroit, hardly a booming or expensive area, well-located upper middle class suburbs don't have much SFH product below 500k, and nicer/newer product is more like 600-700k and up. Not surprisingly, Philly is a little more expensive. I don't see these prices as that outrageous. Most households don't absolutely need a SFH in a higher-end area. Do you really need a top-tier school district, and all the amenities?
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  #59  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2022, 6:24 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
What is wrong with those prices? Those aren't particularly high prices for national standards. Two middle class earners can afford those SFHs.

Philly is a large, desirable, high income metro, and these are nice suburbs, with good schools. Why would SFH be cheap?
Exactly. On top of that, part of the issue with a place like Plymouth Meeting is that its positioning as a desireable place to live is moving up the ladder.

Plymouth Meeting for years I would say has been considered an above average place, but not exceptional suburb by Philadelphia standards. It's adjacent to the Main Line, but not a part of it, so was always sort of in the shadows, and it hugs Conshohocken, which used to be a poor Milltown but is now a satellite city with it's own skyline and a odd number of fortune 500 companies. But, its extraordinarily well located (10 minutes from King of Prussia, which is Philly's second job center, 15 minutes from downtown, literally next to Conshohocken). It is at the nexus of 2 major highways (476 and the turnpike) and over time, the schools have become exceptional.

It's no longer really considered second choice, and that's starting to be reflected in housing values and new construction, which for the first time in the history of the town, includes tear downs, particularly in the Plymouth Valley neighborhood (big lots very middling rambler homes). This https://www.everyhome.com/Home/732-W...y-Pennsylvania replacing this https://www.google.com/maps/place/73...!4d-75.3049341.

This https://www.everyhome.com/Home/122-P...y-Pennsylvania replacing this https://www.google.com/maps/place/12...!4d-75.2994214

Anyway. The only knock against it is that it doesn't have transit connectivity.

In any other NE metro the entry point for Plymouth Meeting would be a million plus and the new construction homes in those links would be $1.5MM.
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  #60  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2022, 9:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
OK, granted, but these are upper middle class towns. Why would moderate income households easily afford new or renovated SFHs in upper middle class towns in close-in suburbs of one of our largest cities?

Metro Detroit, hardly a booming or expensive area, well-located upper middle class suburbs don't have much SFH product below 500k, and nicer/newer product is more like 600-700k and up. Not surprisingly, Philly is a little more expensive. I don't see these prices as that outrageous. Most households don't absolutely need a SFH in a higher-end area. Do you really need a top-tier school district, and all the amenities?
Judging by the examples in EastSideHBG's post, they are just typical suburban track homes; built by developers in the 60's and 70's, nothing fancy or out of the ordinary. One even looks like Al Bundy's house and he sold shoes.

That's the crux of the issue is anywhere there's decent schools, low crime and stable socioeconomics; the bulk of the middle class are being priced out.
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