Still Red American Urban Areas

[The North One]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

The numbers aren't by city proper, right? Pretty sure the city numbers would be far bluer for Houston.

I assumed Houston metro is also diverse. Is it vast majority white?

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by The North One

I assumed Houston metro is also diverse. Is it vast majority white?

According to Wiki it's 37% Hispanic/Latino, 34% White, 17% Black, 8% Asian, 3% mixed. It's 73% Christian though so maybe that's where we see a large effect.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

I'm having trouble seeing that trend from the election map. How was south Texas defined, and do you have a listing of the counties and how they voted. Also curious as to which ones were flipped. Not disputing you at all, but it would be great to see the data. Thanks!

I don't have the margins but he flipped Reeves, Val Verde, Frio, LaSalle, Jim Welles, Kleberg, Zapata and Kenedy. 5 of those are Hispanic majority.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by homebucket

According to Wiki it's 37% Hispanic/Latino, 34% White, 17% Black, 8% Asian, 3% mixed. It's 73% Christian though so maybe that's where we see a large effect.

Look at wiki again. Per 2020 they claim Houston is 44% Hispanic, 24% White, 22% Black and Asians are 7 percent. Houston is purported to be America's most diverse city. Its a majority-minority.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

Look at wiki again. Per 2020 they claim Houston is 44% Hispanic, 24% White, 22% Black and Asians are 7 percent. Houston is purported to be America's most diverse city. Its a majority-minority.

That's city proper. TNO was asking for metro data.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by homebucket

That's city proper. TNO was asking for metro data.

Oh ok.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

I don't have the margins but he flipped Reeves, Val Verde, Frio, LaSalle, Jim Welles, Kleberg, Zapata and Kenedy. 5 of those are Hispanic majority.

Total population by county:

Kenedy: 350
La Salle: 6,000
Reeves: 15,000
Zapata: 14,000
Frio: 18,000
Kleberg: 31,000
Jim Wells: 39,000
Val Verde: 48,000

Again, these are rural/small town areas, not urban.

[Crawford]

While TX is trending purple, it's pretty clear that the white Texas population is apples-apples much redder than the white population in other large, urbanized states. Large Evangelical populations, small(er) (non-Hispanic) Catholic populations. Also large Baptist and (conservative strain of) Methodist populations. Southern Methodist University and the like. GOP supermecca, and not really Trumpy.

And nonwhite Texans have awful election turnout. Just atrocious. There are 80% Hispanic areas where most votes are cast by non-Hispanic whites.

California used to be like this, so there might be hope. There were 80-90% nonwhite areas of Orange County that were still electing white GOP politicans until very recently (and no, not the elderly Vietnamese Garden Grove-Westminster GOP types). The nonwhite turnout was pathetic, and the whites were the elderly Nixon-era Orange Curtain types who were super politically engaged.

And local elections in non-Presidential years often yield horrible turnout, so it takes very few voters to set an area's political course. You might only need 5% of registered voters.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Just because a city or metro has a large flagship university does not guarantee it will be liberal. Some universities are in fact quite conservative. I believe Texas A&M is conservative, in stark contrast to U Texas Austin, and I would not be surprised if U of Alabama is conservative. A metro with a state capital and flagship does tend to be more liberal than other parts of the state, which probably explains why OKC is a more liberal than Tulsa, and I would guess that Nashville city (and its county) is more liberal than Knoxville. But those areas are surrounded by a sea of conservative suburbs that out vote the liberal. Also, areas with high military employment seems to be more conservative than other areas, which is one reason why Colorado Springs (along with the evangelicals) and Huntsville (a lot of its tech is military) tend to be on the conservative side. Does anyone have any data on how the San Diego area voted compared with LA - I am curious since I think San Diego has more military. For FL, I think Jax was the most red of the major metro areas, but I would be interested if someone has the data for the FL metros.

Florida Counties in 2020 election. Biden won all the major counties but by generally smaller margins than Obama or even Hillary. Trump won the other 56 or so small counties and won most by huge margins:

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Total population by county:

Kenedy: 350
La Salle: 6,000
Reeves: 15,000
Zapata: 14,000
Frio: 18,000
Kleberg: 31,000
Jim Wells: 39,000
Val Verde: 48,000

Again, these are rural/small town areas, not urban.

Yeah we were just talking which ones flipped. The most urban counties that went red as far as I can see were Potter, Randall and Nueces. Lotsa Jesus around those parts i suppose.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

Yeah we were just talking which ones flipped. The most urban counties that went red as far as I can see were Potter, Randall and Nueces. Lotsa Jesus around those parts i suppose.

Unfortunately, there is appeal for a tough talking unbashed 'strongman,' especially among men and some women. Trump actually did better among all non-whites even in the urban areas. As one person I heard say, "he says what he means and means what he says..."

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Unfortunately, there is appeal for a tough talking unbashed 'strongman,' especially among men and some women. Trump actually did better among all non-whites even in the urban areas. As one person I heard say, "he says what he means and means what he says..."

Mexico's President is a tough-talking unabashed strongman, and he's very popular, particularly among the working class, uneducated, and rural voters.

AMLO's rise has no doubt fueled some degree of Mexican-American affinity for Dotard, or populism in general, especially among working class males. And Rio Grande Hispanics are culturally very close to Mexican politics.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Florida Counties in 2020 election. Biden won all the major counties but by generally smaller margins than Obama or even Hillary. Trump won the other 56 or so small counties and won most by huge margins:

Oh my, there have been at least three or four Californians out of 39 million who fled to Jacksonville. Boy are they gonna be pissed...

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

Hamilton County, OH was red up until 2008. Since then it's been relatively purple if not outright blue? Before 2008, I think the last time before that it went blue was in 1964 for Johnson or 1960 for Kennedy?

The Section 8 program + gentrification has caused a dramatic demographic inversion of many neighborhoods. The black population within city limits has trended downward from about 45% to about 40% as affluent whites and poor blacks have simply switched places.

[FromSD]

[QUOTE=Crawford;9671035]And nonwhite Texans have awful election turnout. Just atrocious. There are 80% Hispanic areas where most votes are cast by non-Hispanic whites.
California used to be like this, so there might be hope. There were 80-90% nonwhite areas of Orange County that were still electing white GOP politicans until very recently (and no, not the elderly Vietnamese Garden Grove-Westminster GOP types). The nonwhite turnout was pathetic, and the whites were the elderly Nixon-era Orange Curtain types who were super politically engaged.

You're right about turnout in Texas. It has some of the lowest turnouts in the country. Ted Cruz got elected in 2012 because he beat a more mainstream candidate in a GOP primary that had dismally low turnout. A small cohort of Cruz supporters were able to swamp the other side. The funny thing, though, is that turnout in Texas actually improved significantly in the 2020 election. That's why it seems odd that Trump did better in 2020 in the Rio Grande Valley. It's almost as if the lower propensity Latino voters that finally came out to vote in that election actually helped the GOP, which is contrary to the usual expectation that higher turnout favors Democrats.

Back before the influx of Vietnamese immigrants in the mid-1970s, Democrats often carried the northern Orange County congressional seat. The new Vietnamese voters tipped that district to the Republicans. It only flipped back to the Democrats in 1996 when Loretta Sanchez defeated B-1 Bob Dornan. But as Crawford pointed out, that district, which includes mainly Latino Santa Ana, was majority Latino long before it switched back to the Democrats.

[Comrade]

Boise is similar to where Salt Lake was in the 1990s and 2000s: liberal city center but very conservative suburbs.

It certainly went Biden:



The big difference between Salt Lake/Ada is that Salt Lake County is diversifying fairly rapidly but it also has been turned off by Trumpism, while it looks like a great deal of the Boise area is embracing it. If Republicans had continued electing candidates like Mitt Romney nationally in 2016 and 2020, Salt Lake County would have been much closer (if not Republican).

But alas, Trump is toxic in the county (though, more appealing outside it). Even still, you can see the southern suburbs are conservative and more inline with Utah County:



Joe Biden won Salt Lake County 53-42.

But Biden won Salt Lake City 76-20, which is a significant margin.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by homebucket

According to Wiki it's 37% Hispanic/Latino, 34% White, 17% Black, 8% Asian, 3% mixed. It's 73% Christian though so maybe that's where we see a large effect.

It might be the white GOP influence in Katy, Cypress, and the Woodlands. Also, white Republicans tend to vote in high percentages. Minorities, which tend to vote Democratic, have a much lower voter turnout. Voter turnout is really the key, which is why Democrats are hopeful that the abortion issue will bring out more minorities in addition to women across the political spectrum that might not bother to vote otherwise.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Unfortunately, there is appeal for a tough talking unbashed 'strongman,' especially among men and some women. Trump actually did better among all non-whites even in the urban areas. As one person I heard say, "he says what he means and means what he says..."

Trump did better among all non-whites even in the urban areas? Where do you mean? Which urban areas?

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by FromSD

The big military/defense establishment certainly makes San Diego more GOP

I find it ironic that people in the military, who are basically minions/pawns of the government and totally get government benefits, totally a class of people who are perfect examples of government welfare and benefit from it, would vote Republican.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

I find it ironic that people in the military, who are basically minions/pawns of the government and totally get government benefits, totally a class of people who are perfect examples of government welfare and benefit from it, would vote Republican.

It's really not. Military people, and law enforcement people in general, have a tough guy image and like law-and-order, which is in tune with the Republicans. Most military (and many people) believe that they deserve these benefits because they put their life on the line. Nixon used law and order to get elected successfully, and also envisioned southern whites leaving the Democratic party over the Civil Rights laws.