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  #21  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:18 AM
LA21st LA21st is offline
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
The expensive overrated cities are definitely getting a wake up call. Turns out ignoring cost of living for the last 20 years was a bad idea. And the pandemic made a lot of people realize their high cost cities were fleecing them, they can get 90%+ of their amenities in much cheaper metros. And nobody wants to spend time or do business in a downtown with tent cities and homeless everywhere.

I'd say Midwest cities besides Chicago and Minneapolis have mostly avoided the total chaos of the last 3 years. With the once in a generation cash infusion from ARPA plus the infrastructure bill, these cities and downtowns are about to look better than they have in a very long time. Really a new golden age for them.

Yes crime ridden Detroit is a dream . What's your murder rate again ?
     
     
  #22  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:27 AM
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Yes crime ridden Detroit is a dream . What's your murder rate again ?
It's a new golden age. Except for Chicago and Minneapolis, of course. The worst sh--holes of the Rust Belt.

Flint, here I come.
     
     
  #23  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:35 AM
llamaorama llamaorama is offline
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Homelessness and the meth epidemic is not an urban problem. It's a nationwide problem that is more visible in large cities because people have to share intimate public spaces like the interior of a bus with psycho drug addicts. Elsewhere, the problem is hidden in trailer parks behind the trees people drive by at 70 mph.

I also have a theory that the actual number of homeless people present in a unit of space, like a square mile, doesn't have to be a very large number to scare people. You only need like 10 or 15 filthy tweakers yelling on a street corner to give the impression an entire downtown is unsafe. The issue with this is that actual progress or the actual proportionality of the problem will be detached from perception and make the politics surrounding the problem intractable.


In the old days the political narrative was that the inner cities were beset by crime and violence due to a geographically fixed "ghetto culture" that was a dog whistle for non-white communities. Conservatives thought they'd fix this through paternalism and proposing tough on crime measures, school choice, cutting welfare, etc.

However if you apply a dash of common sense, it's not like you can pin the mess on the the streets of San Francisco on the...checks notes... software developers and financial analysts... and their uh, rap music? It's clearly a different situation now. I'd argue the current wave of drug addiction and associated increase in property crimes and things of that nature is due to a disintegration of Middle America after 40 years of failed trickle down economics mixed with a selfish culture where couples break up and create instability for their kids and the new fad is to be estranged from family that doesn't give you exactly what you want in life... fuck I'll pin it on white people all day long because that's a very white attitude to have. Can't be a coincidence the worst places are in the Pacific Northwest. We know enough about psychology now that people use drugs to self medicate and if society fucks people up you'll get more of that.

Anyways...

The problem with assuming cities are naturally inclined to regress back to their post-war state is missing the key ingredient that is a sustained concentration of poverty in traditionally urban neighborhoods. That existed only because during the industrial era there was a migration of unskilled workers and immigrants to urban cores. That stopped 75 years ago.

It's true that maybe some cities like Baltimore or St Louis will always have that residual concentration of poverty from a century ago, but if you look at demographic statistics the number of people in those neighborhoods is shrinking while cities without a substantial "poor inner city" like Austin are the fastest growing. Yes, cities will always have to deal with this to some extent because by definition the stereotypical city is an open place and the stereotypical suburb is a closed one. Sunbelt "cities" that have huge boundaries so you could technically argue that a place like Houston for example has more poor people in "urban" environments, neglecting that the hood is actually some faltering 1970s suburb that is very low density except for some auto-oriented apartment complexes by a freeway.

My prediction is that the most dangerous and poorest places that comprise the bulk of issues like crime will not be urban cores. Instead it's going to be low-end suburbs and low density autocentric poor neighborhoods in sunbelt cities that have the largest and fastest growing population. However these areas are simply invisible unless you seek them out. Also they aren't politically relevant because they are too small to have much influence on a gerrymandered district. And they are too dispersed to have any kind of representative local government, they are usually just a part of an unincorporated county that leans right and doesn't want to invest beyond more punitive law enforcement to keep the lid on things.
     
     
  #24  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:42 AM
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Originally Posted by llamaorama View Post
Homelessness and the meth epidemic is not an urban problem. It's a nationwide problem that is more visible in large cities because people have to share intimate public spaces like the interior of a bus with psycho drug addicts. Elsewhere, the problem is hidden in trailer parks behind the trees people drive by at 70 mph.

I also have a theory that the actual number of homeless people present in a unit of space, like a square mile, doesn't have to be a very large number to scare people. You only need like 10 or 15 filthy tweakers yelling on a street corner to give the impression an entire downtown is unsafe. The issue with this is that actual progress or the actual proportionality of the problem will be detached from perception and make the politics surrounding the problem intractable.


In the old days the political narrative was that the inner cities were beset by crime and violence due to a geographically fixed "ghetto culture" that was a dog whistle for non-white communities. Conservatives thought they'd fix this through paternalism and proposing tough on crime measures, school choice, cutting welfare, etc.

However if you apply a dash of common sense, it's not like you can pin the mess on the the streets of San Francisco on the...checks notes... software developers and financial analysts... and their uh, rap music? It's clearly a different situation now. I'd argue the current wave of drug addiction and associated increase in property crimes and things of that nature is due to a disintegration of Middle America after 40 years of failed trickle down economics mixed with a selfish culture where couples break up and create instability for their kids and the new fad is to be estranged from family that doesn't give you exactly what you want in life... fuck I'll pin it on white people all day long because that's a very white attitude to have. Can't be a coincidence the worst places are in the Pacific Northwest. We know enough about psychology now that people use drugs to self medicate and if society fucks people up you'll get more of that.

Anyways...

The problem with assuming cities are naturally inclined to regress back to their post-war state is missing the key ingredient that is a sustained concentration of poverty in traditionally urban neighborhoods. That existed only because during the industrial era there was a migration of unskilled workers and immigrants to urban cores. That stopped 75 years ago.

It's true that maybe some cities like Baltimore or St Louis will always have that residual concentration of poverty from a century ago, but if you look at demographic statistics the number of people in those neighborhoods is shrinking while cities without a substantial "poor inner city" like Austin are the fastest growing. Yes, cities will always have to deal with this to some extent because by definition the stereotypical city is an open place and the stereotypical suburb is a closed one. Sunbelt "cities" that have huge boundaries so you could technically argue that a place like Houston for example has more poor people in "urban" environments, neglecting that the hood is actually some faltering 1970s suburb that is very low density except for some auto-oriented apartment complexes by a freeway.

My prediction is that the most dangerous and poorest places that comprise the bulk of issues like crime will not be urban cores. Instead it's going to be low-end suburbs and low density autocentric poor neighborhoods in sunbelt cities that have the largest and fastest growing population. However these areas are simply invisible unless you seek them out. Also they aren't politically relevant because they are too small to have much influence on a gerrymandered district. And they are too dispersed to have any kind of representative local government, they are usually just a part of an unincorporated county that leans right and doesn't want to invest beyond more punitive law enforcement to keep the lid on things.
I think you make some good points. They match a lot of what I've observed, at least in this part of the country.
     
     
  #25  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:44 AM
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Not quite.

Don't know about the other cities, but DTLA is more vibrant than ever, at least in the contemporary era.

SF's downtown is not doing quite as well, specifically the FiDi for obvious reasons and Union Square. Outside of these areas, within SF proper, the residential neighborhoods are back to pre-pandemic levels of activity, and in some cases, surpassed as new projects come online.
Oh, so I won't be living on the 25th floor anytime soon.
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  #26  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 3:52 AM
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I was shocked with San Francisco and Seattle. Post Covid/ G. Floyd. Especially Seattle. The downtown area looks like a scene out of a post apocalyptic B movie. Boarded up store fronts and bums.
     
     
  #27  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 5:34 AM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
I was shocked with San Francisco and Seattle. Post Covid/ G. Floyd. Especially Seattle. The downtown area looks like a scene out of a post apocalyptic B movie. Boarded up store fronts and bums.
I guess you haven’t been to Union Square lately, it was really vibrant this past weekend.
     
     
  #28  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 5:44 AM
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Originally Posted by twinpeaks View Post
I guess you haven’t been to Union Square lately, it was really vibrant this past weekend.
Case in point, people like lying to themselves.

Vibrant compared to what? Peak Covid? If so, duh. It is far less active than it was pre-covid. This is by choice, voters chose policies that kill cities. It is what the majority votes for and wants, why are we acting otherwise?
     
     
  #29  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 5:50 AM
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The development in Uptown and Downtown Minneapolis has been really exciting. If it wasn’t so cold I would move back.

I’m more concerned about Downtown Phoenix. Lots of apartment growth and that is exciting but all the nicest office developments and redevelopments are nowhere close to downtown or even midtown.
     
     
  #30  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 5:54 AM
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I'd be surprised if any downtown's premier shopping districts are as vibrant as they were pre-Covid. Tourism, especially international, is still not back to where it was pre-pandemic. And we're missing a yuuuuuge population that spent big bucks--the Chinese. It's hitting global economies everywhere, from the US to Europe and Southeast Asia. President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid strategy makes it incredibly difficult for its citizens to travel abroad with mandatory quarantines and multiple rounds of testing in order to come back into the country.
     
     
  #31  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 6:13 AM
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Originally Posted by YourBuddy View Post
The development in Uptown and Downtown Minneapolis has been really exciting. If it wasn’t so cold I would move back.

I’m more concerned about Downtown Phoenix. Lots of apartment growth and that is exciting but all the nicest office developments and redevelopments are nowhere close to downtown or even midtown.
Yeah Minneapolis is cold AF. 32F high tomorrow. 6F low o/n. Prob the only thing holding it back. Mebbe could use a lil more diversity too. Sports teams could prob use some improvement as well to help boost its national profile.

Phoenix is aite but it's got the opposite problem. It's hot AF at least in the summers. Prob nice rn tho.
     
     
  #32  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 6:15 AM
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I wish San Francisco was declining as much as the media claims it is. I might actually be able to afford a home here!
     
     
  #33  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 6:23 AM
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Originally Posted by pepper steak View Post
I wish San Francisco was declining as much as the media claims it is. I might actually be able to afford a home here!
Go back to school, study hard, get a better job.
     
     
  #34  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 7:35 AM
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Yeah Minneapolis is cold AF. 32F high tomorrow. 6F low o/n. Prob the only thing holding it back. Mebbe could use a lil more diversity too. Sports teams could prob use some improvement as well to help boost its national profile.

Phoenix is aite but it's got the opposite problem. It's hot AF at least in the summers. Prob nice rn tho.
Winter is our bouncer. It is why the city doesn't get ruined the way Portland, Seattle, Austin, Denver and the Bay Area all have over the last 40 years. Minneapolis is basically the only large, longstanding bohemian city in the country that hasn't been irrevocably changed by the embrace techies, trust fund hipsters and yuppies moving in from the rest of the country and pricing everyone else out.
     
     
  #35  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 8:46 AM
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This is based on mid-Covid numbers. How asinine.

As for Seattle, it's trending in the right direction. Housing construction is booming, vacancy rates are still pretty low despite that, the tents left the Downtown core when a new mayor was elected this year, Downtown retail openings are gaining steam, tourism was huge this summer... Somehow we also keep breaking ground on new office buildings (typically biotech-friendly ones) in the urban core...at least 11 during Covid off the top of my head, including a couple just starting now.
On the tents - thank god for whatever they are doing. There was an article from a year ago about a guy in Belltown who had to turn to the corner drug dealers and gang members to keep people from breaking into his store because the local prosecutor wouldn’t put anything more than a misdemeanor on them and the police couldn’t hang out at his doggie day care 24/7 and arrest the same people over and over again only for them to be let back out. Corner drug dealers were the only people willing to act forcefully enough to allow the guy to run his business. It was pathetic.

As for the growth, some observations..

The GMA (via PSRC) mandates that Seattle bear a disproportionate share of the upzoning to absorb the long range projected growth in the region. The rationale being that growth is directed to areas with high capacity infrastructure. However, the local ordinances have effectively put small scale apartment landlords out of business by making it MUCH too hard to evict tenants who refuse to pay rent. What I’m getting at is that, relative to other parts of the country, the return margins in Seattle are very thin, especially compared to other west coast markets like the Bay Area or LA where the state doesn’t sanction municipalities that fail to upzone enough for 20 years of projected growth. In a nutshell, inner north Seattle, Bellevue, and nicer suburbs like Redmond and Issaquah have been frothy AF and predicated on ongoing expansion in the tech sector.
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  #36  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:12 PM
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The leadership of democratic-run urban America is beyond pathetic . Fostering tent cities despite astronomical homeless spending , defund the police , babies in parks suffering from fentanyl overdoses (sf) , quality of life crimes no longer prosecuted , reduced sentencing for carjackings (dc) and petty theft because black people commit them , weed smoke at 830 in the morning (nyc) due to poorly planned mj legalization , lockdowns of schools for 1-2 years …

Re-read mau-mauing the flak catchers by Tom Wolfe to understand throw mentality . Not much has changed in 50 years

I don’t think cities are doomed , but well-run cities will crush poorly run cities in the next decade
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  #37  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:28 PM
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  #38  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 1:59 PM
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Originally Posted by llamaorama View Post
Homelessness and the meth epidemic is not an urban problem. It's a nationwide problem that is more visible in large cities because people have to share intimate public spaces like the interior of a bus with psycho drug addicts. Elsewhere, the problem is hidden in trailer parks behind the trees people drive by at 70 mph.

I also have a theory that the actual number of homeless people present in a unit of space, like a square mile, doesn't have to be a very large number to scare people. You only need like 10 or 15 filthy tweakers yelling on a street corner to give the impression an entire downtown is unsafe. The issue with this is that actual progress or the actual proportionality of the problem will be detached from perception and make the politics surrounding the problem intractable.


In the old days the political narrative was that the inner cities were beset by crime and violence due to a geographically fixed "ghetto culture" that was a dog whistle for non-white communities. Conservatives thought they'd fix this through paternalism and proposing tough on crime measures, school choice, cutting welfare, etc.

However if you apply a dash of common sense, it's not like you can pin the mess on the the streets of San Francisco on the...checks notes... software developers and financial analysts... and their uh, rap music? It's clearly a different situation now. I'd argue the current wave of drug addiction and associated increase in property crimes and things of that nature is due to a disintegration of Middle America after 40 years of failed trickle down economics mixed with a selfish culture where couples break up and create instability for their kids and the new fad is to be estranged from family that doesn't give you exactly what you want in life... fuck I'll pin it on white people all day long because that's a very white attitude to have. Can't be a coincidence the worst places are in the Pacific Northwest. We know enough about psychology now that people use drugs to self medicate and if society fucks people up you'll get more of that.

Anyways...

The problem with assuming cities are naturally inclined to regress back to their post-war state is missing the key ingredient that is a sustained concentration of poverty in traditionally urban neighborhoods. That existed only because during the industrial era there was a migration of unskilled workers and immigrants to urban cores. That stopped 75 years ago.

It's true that maybe some cities like Baltimore or St Louis will always have that residual concentration of poverty from a century ago, but if you look at demographic statistics the number of people in those neighborhoods is shrinking while cities without a substantial "poor inner city" like Austin are the fastest growing. Yes, cities will always have to deal with this to some extent because by definition the stereotypical city is an open place and the stereotypical suburb is a closed one. Sunbelt "cities" that have huge boundaries so you could technically argue that a place like Houston for example has more poor people in "urban" environments, neglecting that the hood is actually some faltering 1970s suburb that is very low density except for some auto-oriented apartment complexes by a freeway.

My prediction is that the most dangerous and poorest places that comprise the bulk of issues like crime will not be urban cores. Instead it's going to be low-end suburbs and low density autocentric poor neighborhoods in sunbelt cities that have the largest and fastest growing population. However these areas are simply invisible unless you seek them out. Also they aren't politically relevant because they are too small to have much influence on a gerrymandered district. And they are too dispersed to have any kind of representative local government, they are usually just a part of an unincorporated county that leans right and doesn't want to invest beyond more punitive law enforcement to keep the lid on things.
I would agree with this. St. Louis is still slowly losing population, but literally all of it's population loss is coming from the poorer neighborhoods. I remember as a kid St. Louis had crowded, ghetto areas that were very active, now most of those areas are pretty much empty ghost towns. In contrast, the successful areas are booming with new construction and redevelopment. Very much a tale of two cities.
     
     
  #39  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 2:27 PM
Investing In Chicago Investing In Chicago is offline
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Yeah Minneapolis is cold AF. 32F high tomorrow. 6F low o/n. Prob the only thing holding it back. Mebbe could use a lil more diversity too. Sports teams could prob use some improvement as well to help boost its national profile.

Phoenix is aite but it's got the opposite problem. It's hot AF at least in the summers. Prob nice rn tho.
That's an interesting take, holding it back from what? I don't think anyone who lives in the Twin Cities would say anything is holding it back, especially the weather.

Minneapolis is a clean, modern city that middle class people can actually afford to live in. Nobody in MSP is waiting to be saved by the Bay Area techies.
     
     
  #40  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2022, 2:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago View Post
That's an interesting take, holding it back from what? I don't think anyone who lives in the Twin Cities would say anything is holding it back, especially the weather.

Minneapolis is a clean, modern city that middle class people can actually afford to live in. Nobody in MSP is waiting to be saved by the Bay Area techies.
From growing bigger. Like being one of the top 10 metros in population.
     
     
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