Quote:
Originally Posted by SIGSEGV
and Illinois is probably corrupt enough to make the person squeezed out be a Republican...
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Yeah, Illinois will gerrymander a Downstate Republican out of office. Florida and Texas will do the same for 2 Democrats.
New York's lost seat will likely be an Upstate Republican as well.
Texas +2 (both will be GOP) = GOP +2 [Urban gerrymanders]
Florida +1 (GOP) = GOP +3 [Gerrymander]
Colorado +1 (Dem) = GOP +3, Dem +1 [Front Range-based Dem]
Montana +1 (Lean GOP) = GOP +4, Dem +1 [Lean R Western district]
North Carolina +1 (Courts) = GOP will gerrymander, NC SC will strike. Neutral.
Oregon +1 (Dem) = GOP +4, Dem +2 [New Portland-Area Dem]
California -1 (Dem) = GOP +4, Dem +1 [Probably an LA Dem]
Illinois -1 (GOP) = GOP +3, Dem +1 [Downstate declining fastest]
Michigan -1 (GOP) = GOP +2, Dem +1 [Dem areas growing fastest + fair map]
New York -1 (GOP) = GOP +1, Dem +1 [Long Island and/or Upstate GOP]
Ohio -1 (Dem) = GOP +1, Dem +0 [GOP gerrymander ousts a Northern OH seat]
Pennsylvania -1 (GOP) = GOP +0, Dem +0 [Dem areas growing fastest + fair map]
West Virginia -1 (GOP) = GOP -1, Dem +1 [100% GOP loss]
So just on net reapportionment, there's almost no change.
The real question is the extent to which state legislatures will gerrymander. The GOP can easily squeeze another 5 seats in Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas with a draconian gerrymander.
The Dems don't have much space to fight back outside of Illinois, Maryland, and New York, since CA/NJ/VA are fair redistricting.