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  #41  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I bet you the undercounts, nationwide, will be in deep blue urban areas, especially areas that are "hard to count" or where it's politically expedient to undercount to push a narrative.
That bodes well for chicagoland.

The bureau was estimating absolutely zero growth for the MSA this decade, but since they underestimated illinois overall by over 200K, it's quite possible (likely?) that chicagoland will actually see modest positive growth this decade once the county numbers come out, which would certainly change the narrative.

#cautiouslyoptimistic
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  #42  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I bet you the undercounts, nationwide, will be in deep blue urban areas, especially areas that are "hard to count" or where it's politically expedient to undercount to push a narrative.

So Michigan's undercounts were probably worst in Wayne County. Probably Detroit, Hamtramck, Dearborn. Immigrant areas, black areas, poor areas.
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Yes, I think so too. This is why I said on another thread a few weeks ago that the estimates would probably miss a population increase in Detroit if it materialized in the 2020 census.

What I REALLY don't get is how the estimates missed almost 1 million people in New York. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but this might mean that NYC's population is close to 9 million.
The nice thing about numbers is they don’t lie. I waited a min to post and went back over estimates before someone else was kind enough to post the tables. Considering the political narrative being pushed about 2020 and the election makes the trend trend very interesting indeed.

Just look at how the previous administration took to treating branches of the government it didn’t like or went against its narrative. First willful neglect to a point of disfunction then adding in at the top someone who will tow the company line it happened with the state department, the post office and even NOAA (after sharpiegate) just to name a few.

The neglect hollows out the organization of the carrier employees who care about the mission and by the time new management comes in and pushes measures for political expedience the institutional push back is negligible.
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  #43  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:17 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
and Illinois is probably corrupt enough to make the person squeezed out be a Republican...
Yeah, Illinois will gerrymander a Downstate Republican out of office. Florida and Texas will do the same for 2 Democrats.

New York's lost seat will likely be an Upstate Republican as well.

Texas +2 (both will be GOP) = GOP +2 [Urban gerrymanders]
Florida +1 (GOP) = GOP +3 [Gerrymander]
Colorado +1 (Dem) = GOP +3, Dem +1 [Front Range-based Dem]
Montana +1 (Lean GOP) = GOP +4, Dem +1 [Lean R Western district]
North Carolina +1 (Courts) = GOP will gerrymander, NC SC will strike. Neutral.
Oregon +1 (Dem) = GOP +4, Dem +2 [New Portland-Area Dem]

California -1 (Dem) = GOP +4, Dem +1 [Probably an LA Dem]
Illinois -1 (GOP) = GOP +3, Dem +1 [Downstate declining fastest]
Michigan -1 (GOP) = GOP +2, Dem +1 [Dem areas growing fastest + fair map]
New York -1 (GOP) = GOP +1, Dem +1 [Long Island and/or Upstate GOP]
Ohio -1 (Dem) = GOP +1, Dem +0 [GOP gerrymander ousts a Northern OH seat]
Pennsylvania -1 (GOP) = GOP +0, Dem +0 [Dem areas growing fastest + fair map]
West Virginia -1 (GOP) = GOP -1, Dem +1 [100% GOP loss]


So just on net reapportionment, there's almost no change.

The real question is the extent to which state legislatures will gerrymander. The GOP can easily squeeze another 5 seats in Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas with a draconian gerrymander.

The Dems don't have much space to fight back outside of Illinois, Maryland, and New York, since CA/NJ/VA are fair redistricting.
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  #44  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
That bodes well for chicagoland.

The bureau was estimating absolutely zero growth for the MSA this decade, but since they underestimated illinois overall by over 200K, it's quite possible that chicagoland will actually see modest positive growth this decade once the county numbers come out, which would certainly change the narrative.
Yeah, it's hard to imagine the MSA not growing compared to downstate (although not sure what's going on Metro East).
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  #45  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:22 PM
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Very nice surprise for Northeast and Great Lakes. Chicago MSA will definitely be on positive. Detroit city proper might have actually grown intercensus.

Lots to talk about it!
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  #46  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
That bodes well for chicagoland.

The bureau was estimating absolutely zero growth for the MSA this decade, but since they underestimated illinois overall by over 200K, it's quite possible (likely?) that chicagoland will actually see modest positive growth this decade once the county numbers come out, which would certainly change the narrative.

#cautiouslyoptimistic
It looks like systemic urban undercount.

If this was rural undercount, you wouldn't be seeing it in Maryland or New Jersey. It's almost certainly the case that Chicago did far better than expected.
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  #47  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:32 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Very nice surprise for Northeast and Great Lakes. Chicago MSA will definitely be on positive. Detroit city proper might have actually grown intercensus.

Lots to talk about it!
No kidding. A massive underestimation that resulted in years of articles about a spiraling city and metro and the numbers will likely be up (albeit minimally) and the numbers for the state are pretty much flat.

The undercount in NY and NJ is bonkers.

Interesting that PA got over 13M despite a smaller economy than IL. Can't credit that to weather, real estate, or business climate. Maybe IL is more reliant on immigration?
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  #48  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:33 PM
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Just making this easier for lazy American's who can't figure out excel or pdf's.

2020 Census must cater to Americans!







Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
No kidding. A massive underestimation that resulted in years of articles about a spiraling city and metro and the numbers will likely be up (albeit minimally) and the numbers for the state are pretty much flat.

The undercount in NY and NJ is bonkers.

Interesting that PA got over 13M despite a smaller economy than IL. Can't credit that to weather, real estate, or business climate. Maybe IL is more reliant on immigration?
Lots of illegals and sanctuary status. But yes, we are always getting undercounted in NJ and NYC.

A lot of folks from NJ are migrating to PA, such as myself. PA is seeing a lot of newer residents, especially along the Eastern flank. Hence why prices have skyrocketed and blue signs everywhere!
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  #49  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
The Texas numbers were off, too. The actual census: 29,145,505 - their estimate: 29,360,759. So they were off by -215,254. Only Arizona had a higher overestimate with -259,899. Their 2020 census: 7,151,502 - their estimate: 7,421,401.
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  #50  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:38 PM
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The Mid-Atlantic region (NY-NJ-PA) were posting zero growth, and now it’s at very healthy 3,96%, faster than the past decade, and growing at 60% of overall growth (7,35%). That’s the best performance since the 1960’s compared to the national growth.

Another thing that occurred to me: NY CSA might have grown faster than LA CSA, based on numbers for CA and NY-NJ. That’s historical.
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  #51  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:43 PM
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Smallest to largest.

TEXAS is really skyrocketing!

Florida too. I wonder if NJ can hit 10 million in the next 10 years. Shame with NY state's population outside of NYC. NYC proper has been driving much of this growth.

Although if it wasn't for the purge, it would of been 331.6 million vs 331.1 million for the U.S. for 50 states proper.

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  #52  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 9:53 PM
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This Census also had milestones for several important states: MA reaching 7 mi, NY 20 mi, NJ 9 mi, PA 13 mi, MA 6 mi, MI, NC and GA 10 mi, AL 5 mi.
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  #53  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:01 PM
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missouri gets screwed because of the spillover to kansas not being counted - which is the growth machine OF kansas - but at least it broke 6 million.
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  #54  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Bonsai Tree View Post
To be fair, I'd wager the greatest losses in population in Illinois are likely in republican districts. The 15th, 12th, and 13th districts probably all lost population. I could see the 17th district (Peoria and Rockford) losing the most though, and that's a democrat district (just barely).
I have family in the Peoria area. I can confirm that even though the district usually votes Dem for national office, the area has a heavy conservative southern transplant "I'm getting out of Illinois because fill-in-the-blank ignorant comment" population. There is a popular misbelief out there that is fueled by the Chicago vs. downstate political divide that the state is just terrible in every way and getting worse, and it can almost all be blamed conveniently on Chicagoland democrats, and many times but not always with a racial wink. It's pretty disheartening to watch because in many ways its nothing more than culture war, and it has the affect of actually encouraging migration out of the state. The Illinois secondary cities have been pretty much stagnant population wise for decades now though.
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  #55  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:15 PM
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missouri gets screwed because of the spillover to kansas not being counted - which is the growth machine OF kansas - but at least it broke 6 million.
I mean. It was counted...in Kansas. If you choose to live in Johnson County, Kansas, why should that person be counted in Missouri?
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  #56  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:15 PM
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I don't know what it is, but Census estimates always seem to under"count" Alabama's population. The difference between the 2020 estimate and 2020 census count was 102,747. That seems to be pretty big, especially when you look at the margins from other, more populous states.
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  #57  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:20 PM
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It seems the US is heading for a more balanced growth. Last decade, Mountain was the fastest growing region, with 21.4% whereas East North Central was at 2.8%.

Now they are both the fastest and slowest, but at 12.9% and 2.0%. The US is becoming a more “normal” country in this regard.
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  #58  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
Interesting that PA got over 13M despite a smaller economy than IL. Can't credit that to weather, real estate, or business climate. Maybe IL is more reliant on immigration?
A lot of PA growth is low-value fringe exurban sprawl. Especially for NYC MSA in Northeast PA, but even a bit for DC-Baltimore, along the southern state border. So PA is getting the population benefits, but not much corresponding economic benefit.

And some of Chicagoland's low-value fringe sprawl is probably bleeding into Indiana, so Illinois doesn't get the population benefit, but isn't hurt much economically.
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  #59  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Manitopiaaa View Post
I mean. It was counted...in Kansas. If you choose to live in Johnson County, Kansas, why should that person be counted in Missouri?
yeah, i get it. big thick slices of metro areas falling into adjacent states is a bitter pill for missouri on both sides of the state. joco really feels like part of metro kansas city just happened to dump into kansas though more than the illinois side of st louis which has more of a rooted feel over there. illinois (thanks to dick durbin from the st. louis area) has historically been more cooperative with the st. louis metro area unlike kansas with kansas city.
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  #60  
Old Posted Apr 26, 2021, 10:54 PM
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Utah leading the pack on percentage growth: 18.4% (500k)
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