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Originally Posted by someone123
Here in Vancouver and BC (which is mostly metro Vancouver cases) we got down to around 5-10 cases per day at the low point and now it's gone up to 80 per day. But cases have shifted to lower risk demographics. The province has 5 million people and so far in August we've had around 5 deaths and hospitalizations. It's possible we've seen more drug overdose deaths than covid deaths here during the pandemic.
We have lots of people pulling their hair out about irresponsible "kids" (i.e. 20 and 30 somethings) partying and ruining it for everyone. We are nowhere near 100% hospital utilization. Nobody really knows the personal details of the party crowd, and the identified cases get isolated, but many people assume social interaction -> covid cases -> deaths (except BLM protests). There's a lot of moralizing, this being Canada.
80% of our deaths were in care homes but the dominant narrative seems to be that the risk is even across the population (push this and people will tell you that deaths in younger people are lower but we just don't know what else might happen to them in the long run).
We're still not doing randomized testing from what I can tell so the numbers are just based on who shows up to be tested and contact tracing. PCR seems somewhat available and antibody or T-cell screening less so.
The dominant attitude seems to be that we should be in semi-lockdown indefinitely. School reopenings are borderline and controversial. Few people seem to talk about the cost of lockdown policies or the endgame, which I guess is assumed to be that a vaccine will allow us to reopen. Policy seems to have gradually shifted from keeping hospital utilization under 100% to getting cases down as low as possible.
It feels like we did pretty well here around March-April, maybe partly by accident (with us being farther from NYC and Europe), but it seems like May-August has been mostly a holding pattern.
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Excellent post. So much of this seems true in the United States, and more local for me here in Delaware.
You are right, the goal or narrative has switched from flattening the curve to make sure hospital beds were available, to minimizing cases as much as possible. Everyone knew back in March and April that cases would go up when the economy got started again, but now people are forgetting that.
Like in British Columbia, most new cases in the United States are in younger people, who are supposed to keep the economy afloat while older people continue to shelter in place (whether or not this has been expressly stated). Deaths and hospitalizations have largely remained relatively low, even while positive cases surged. The downside is the possible cardiac residual effects. The upside is the potential antibodies and herd immunity developed.
School openings have been controversial. It has largely been teachers versus parents here. The parents want actual schooling, having not really gotten any schooling since mid-March. The teachers want to protect themselves. There's not been much consideration given to the students themselves. As a youth sports coach, most of the children I interact with are actually getting pretty desperate to go back to school. I can't believe I'm hearing it, because when I was a kid, I would've been happy to have a 6-month summer. But these kids can feel that they are not getting smarter (and therefore not maturing), and there are clear long-term mental health effects coming into play.
Things were going well here from Easter to Memorial Day (end of May) and into June. From mid-June until now it has been a holding pattern where regulations have neither gotten looser or gotten stricter.
I can't remember what I read, because it was a few days ago, but I think Wilmington or Delaware actually has had more overdose deaths than coronavirus deaths. I will have to look for that. Wherever it was, drug overdoses have exceeded coronavirus deaths. I also saw a report indicating that domestic violence has indeed skyrocketed since March.
All of this tells me that we have to avoid the two extremes. We can't stay locked down forever and force people into a year of isolation or constraint. The human brain will eventually reject that and ignore policies in place. At the same time, we cannot pretend that nothing ever happened, and that everything should be back to normal.
Here in Delaware, with a Democratic governor, I think we have done well in finding the best of both worlds. Early on things were tough here. There was a quarantine in place, and all businesses were closed, and everything like that. But I think an element of reasoning was included in restrictions as the economy opened back up. So, while we are being aggressive in trying to keep our positive cases down, much like New York or Massachusetts and unlike Florida or Arizona, there is no arbitrary law about needing to order food when you're in a bar, as if the coronavirus won't spread because you have food on the table, and the quarantine was lifted on June 1 and there has been no talk of reinstating it. It has provided a good balance of determination and vigilance with freedom and normalcy. That makes it easier for people to follow the rules still in place, because they get the sense that things are getting better.