Debate and discussion of Modernist vs Traditionalist was very interesting despite being so heated. As well as the question of whether the market dictates pricing or can you objectively and independently determine something is overpriced. Lots of stuff so I will just throw out some thoughts.
- The argument that traditional Miesian modernism is not ideal for residential is not exactly flawed. 860 LSD definitely has flaws. What pisses me off and seems disingenuous about the Stern quotes is comparing to and criticizing 860 LSD. That building, in case people dont realize, was completed in 1951. Not just an era ago, 2 eras ago. It has lasted incredibly well but yes it wouldnt get built today. And there are plenty of recent examples of more modernist residential towers that you cant criticize in the same way. Its also not the most expensive building, because it was built in the 50s. Condos with lake and city views in there are quite reasonable compared to pre-war buildings nearby or more recent condos (lets not even compare the prices to OBP...). So its a flawed comparison, picking on a design that was from a different era. Like criticizing the Tribune Tower for having tiny windows that dont let in enough light.
- There is a large market of wealthy people that want to rent. Different markets (cities but also submarkets, just look at the south side) had different thresholds were rentals stopped and condos started. I'd say the whole idea of this threshold is changing as we speak. As a simple thought exercise a 5-7k/month rent would probably equate to a 1 to 1.5 million dollar condo for a potential buyer. To even get an equivalent monthly payment (net of principal) you are talking about at least $200-300k down payment. There are very few tax incentives today to buy for that couple (mortgage interest deduction limited, definitely already hitting their SALT limit). There is also not much capital appreciation story. Especially if you have to spend a lot to get the finishes you want, you are lucky to get back to break even selling in 5-10 years. Whereas taking $250k, and buying a $1 million 6 flat in the near south side or something similar will let you fully service your debt with the rental income and likely avoid most taxes on the positive cashflow (20% deduction on passthrough, depreciation, etc).
- Separating $6k/month 2 bedroom units from $3-$6 million condos is not that crazy. $6k/month might just be the Regional Manager for some French auto-parts manufacturer asked to move his family here and given a 5-7k allowance for housing. $3 million condos are probably getting another million or two in finishing and are in reality a different class.
- The whole pitch of OBP rentals are they are supposed to be larger than typical rentals. They are going for that market. I am really surprised if you are right that the 1 BR are 700 sf. I had seen details showing all the 1 BR in the 850-1000 range while 2 BR in the 1200-1500 range. And 3 BR at 1800.
- If I am right the correct comp is more renting in condo buildings. OBPs neighbor, 505 N Mcclurg, which is 10 years old has 1,400 sf 2 bedrooms that rent for $3.7-$4k and 1,000 sf 1 BRs that rent for $2.8-3.1k. In a brand new building with vastly better amenities, I dont see $4k for a 1 BR, 5k for 2 Br as totally crazy.
- There are people living in some of the rentals already. I can see them. So the idea that the demand isnt there seems somewhat false. The Moment which is micro rentals took almost 2 years to rent up but it rented up. I would expect the take up to be similarly slow here.
- The streetfront treatment is fine. That corner would be shit retail and as others have said, just forcing retail everywhere does not make things better. You are isolated with no through ped traffic. Any traffic to and from the lake / Navy Pier would come on the north side of Grand of the south side of Illinois. The park also isolates you from the denser part of Streeterville. Your market for that corner would be 500 LSD and OBP residents. You'd be lucky to support a cafe. The park frontage is fine since it'll be heavily landscaped. Windows would just be weird there anyways. People in the park gawking at the rich people? Or rich people sitting in their lobby gawking at the riffraff in the park?
Overall, having starred at the building for a year, I quite like the outcome and think its a great source of variety in Streeterville. Would I want 100 of these buildings popping up? No. And the fact that this one has already had to make a bunch of compromises in the design and materials,just to hit the price points its at clearly shows Chicago cannot support more than a few buildings like this.
This is nothing like a Lagrange monstrosity and while Stern seems like a prick, I doubt he did much to design this tower, nor did his team do that bad a job. Time will tell how successful Related is here, but they seem to be doing just fine so far.